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/sci/ - Science & Math

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10657439 No.10657439 [Reply] [Original]

Does /sci/ believe in exponential growth?

>> No.10657450

it´s happening

>> No.10657462

>>10657439
AI is not developing exponentially. Things that grow exponentially don't grow exponentially for very long. The world's population isn't even increasing exponentially.

>> No.10657657
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10657657

>>10657439
Here's the correct chart

>> No.10657673

>>10657439
I'd table more on a logarithm function.
The clever you get, the harder it is to become even more intelligent.

>> No.10657702

>>10657462
>Things that grow exponentially don't grow exponentially for very long.
People don't seem to grasp that concept, it's so infuriating.

>> No.10657712

>>10657462
>>10657702
are you implying AI has peaked and plateaued?

>> No.10657714

>>10657462
>>10657702
are you also implying population won't continue to grow exponentially as we colonize the solar system? I didn't say everything grows exponentially every year, just when you look at a zoomed out chart it is exponential

>> No.10657815

>>10657673
logistic fits better

>> No.10657822

>>10657712
>>10657714
Not any of those anons, but I think you need to read these posts again. They are not implying any of that shit although they might have such opinions regardless.

>> No.10657825
File: 41 KB, 818x714, Capture.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10657825

>>10657822
>>10657702
>>10657462
it really makes you think

>> No.10657844

>>10657439
No, there is an upper limit in all cases, which results in logistic growth.

>> No.10657847

>>10657825
Timescales are relative. Our exponential population growth has been decreasing for a while, and it's barely linear at this point. Exponential growth in AI is probably up, I am not arguing against that, but I do not think it will last forever.

>> No.10657855
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10657855

>>10657844
Interesting theory, but I have to disagree. Things may level off in the short-term, but until you have colonized the entire universe and learned everything there is to know (you can't), the growth remains exponential

>>10657847
I agree it's all relative, which is why you can't look at the near term. Pic related is linear growth since 50 years ago. >>10657825
is what happens when you zoom out

>> No.10657890

>>10657855
>I agree it's all relative, which is why you can't look at the near term.
I mean, the growth is still linear the last 50-70 years if we zoom out. What happens when you zoom out to the several million year long history of homo sapiens. Probably not exponential.
> Things may level off in the short-term, but until you have colonized the entire universe and learned everything there is to know (you can't), the growth remains exponential
Species fuck up and die all the time. Look at the dinosaurs. Exponential growth, then sudden death. It's not obvious that we are going to colonize the entire universe, and it's not obvious that if we do it's going to happen without fuck ups and mass instinctions. The only pure exponential processes I can potentially spot is the purpotedly exponential expansion of the universe accompagnated by entropy and heat-death.