[ 3 / biz / cgl / ck / diy / fa / ic / jp / lit / sci / vr / vt ] [ index / top / reports ] [ become a patron ] [ status ]
2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/sci/ - Science & Math


View post   

File: 94 KB, 1200x885, declining birthrates.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10353960 No.10353960 [Reply] [Original]

Apologists say that it's nothing unusual and that an apex predator stops breeding to make sure it has plenty of resources to survive. Doomers say the earth is past carrying capacity and that not breeding is good.
The question is how low the population will go. Without immigration Japan's population is projected to drop under 100 and maybe all the way to 80 million. What if it doesn't stop and keeps going down? Without measures and religious fever in place breeding is always cost detrimental. People had kids because they thought they should. Those factors are no longer present due to widespread atheism and focus on money.

What are the implications? Scientifically?

>> No.10353989

>>10353960
It depends WHICH populations you naive narrow-minded ingrate.

"Breeding is always cost detrimental" Depends how you measure return on investment

"People had kids because they thought they should" Prove it

>> No.10353993

>>10353960
Yes and no.
Yes because we're in the midst of an ecological collapse, and theoretically reduction of population may allow the systems that are left to rebuild and start to repair our life support systems. Also, in theory, the power structure's grasp will be greatly reduced during the process of depopulation. During this they and their agendas can finally be destroyed.

No because the basis of the dropping population is sterilization. We're reaching a point of mutational load where within 5-10 years it's going to be apparent that the vast majority of people are incapable of producing viable children. When a society realizes it has no future its social control structures and economic activity plummets and it begins to implode. The narratives all become empty.

Insect populations are down as much as 90%. They're been annihilated. Non-scavenger bird populations are rapidly dropping. Amphibians are disappearing. Trees are dying and displaying otherwise unusual pathological behavior. Their ability to fix carbon are greatly reduced, they cannot absorb nutrients through their roots.

And yet most people remain unaware, in denial, or complicit. We're in a very bad spot. Man seems to be on its way out and we've positioned ourselves to take the bulk of terrestrial life and more with us. Whether it's too late or not, we must act, and act in the right ways. Not the ways they tell us. And I think the best thing we could do at this point is ensure we leave behind an advanced AI, deep underground, that can utilize existing infrastructure to prevent this place from succumbing to a Venus scenario. Prevent all of our reactors from going critical. It will know everything we ever admitted we knew, and more. It will be a Noah's ark. Whether it recreates organic life, I don't know. We should also begin to send out material to distant stars if it becomes clear that we've really had it.

It's pretty bleak. Most of this stuff was preventable by just saying no.

>> No.10354015

>>10353960
based chinks exported the one child policy to their new property

>> No.10354021

>>10353989
This post says literally nothing.

>> No.10354040

>>10353960
Yes, they should decline to zero, that is the best case scenario.

>> No.10354041 [DELETED] 

>>10353960
I guess not even immigration can save us now. Economies of scale, like ours, depend on population growth. Population growth=economic growth full stop. Without people, nothing happens in an economy. The trash isn't picked up, street light are not fixed, the wheels come off. Places like Japan will now stop seeing permanent recessions, like they have been, and start drifting into permanent depression territory. Every anti-immigration activist should at least understand this simple reality when they clamor for a wall. That said, immigration was always just a temporary stopgap. Things will get worse before they get better. Maybe some fertility measures will be put in place once things get bad enough. Some countries in Europe offer economic stimulus to couple who choose to start a family. Maybe then the population will level off, the negative economic effects will stabilize, and the world can go on existing in a more sustainable Sweden-sized economy. Maybe.

>> No.10354050 [DELETED] 

I guess not even immigration can save us now. Economies of scale, like ours, depend on population growth. Population growth=economic growth full stop. Without people, nothing happens in an economy. The trash isn't picked up, street light are not fixed, the wheels come off. Places like Japan will now stop seeing permanent recessions, like they have been, and start drifting into permanent depression territory. Every anti-immigration activist should at least understand this simple reality when they clamor for a wall. That said, immigration was always just a temporary stopgap. Things will get worse before they get better. Maybe some fertility measures will be put in place once things get bad enough. Some countries in Europe offer economic stimulus to couples who choose to start a family. Maybe then the population will level off, the negative economic effects will stabilize, and the world can go on existing in a more sustainable, Sweden-sized economy. Maybe.

>> No.10354055

>>10353960
>Are declining populations good?
That's a terribly broad question.
In terms of modern economic models, falling populations are catastrophic because the entire plan requires infinite growth, so you always have more people feeding into it than are taking out of it.
Not that having a population lopsided in the other direction is choice either. Africa is seeing a huge population boom as infant mortality rates drop, but now have the problem of too many youths without the infrastructure or industry to do anything with them.
So you take population and labor from the place experiencing a surplus and move it to where you have a deficit.
The whole con of the game is that you scrub toilets for pennies in the hopes that you kids grow up to pay someone pennies to scrub their toilets.

>> No.10354058

>>10353960
I guess not even immigration can save us now. Economies of scale, like ours, depend on population growth. Population growth=economic growth full stop. Without people, nothing happens in an economy. The trash isn't picked up, street lights are not fixed, the wheels come off. Places like Japan will now stop seeing permanent recessions, like they have been, and start drifting into permanent depression territory. Every anti-immigration activist should at least understand this simple reality when they clamor for a wall. That said, immigration was always just a temporary stopgap. Things will get worse before they get better. Maybe some fertility measures will be put in place once things get bad enough. Some countries in Europe offer economic stimulus to couples who choose to start a family. Maybe then the population will level off, the negative economic effects will stabilize, and the world can go on existing in a more sustainable, Sweden-sized economy. Maybe.

>> No.10354068

Yes there are way too many people on this planet

>> No.10354126

>>10354058
Unironically space industry and a transition to resource and service based economies.
I mean capitalism is a fine system. I've benefited from it my entire life so it would be hypocritical to try and act like it's a malevolent evil force, but I also acknowledge that anything based on a perpetual motion generation is going to eventually wind down.
Eventually you reach a point where you've got to bring in the next iteration of economics designed for your scale, whatever that may be.

>> No.10354256

What if we just got rid of everyone below the equator

>> No.10354262

>>10354256
What if we just got rid of everyone that uses a wireless device, or just goes along with everything and anything.

Oh wait.

>> No.10354278

>>10354262
What if we got rid of wise guys

>> No.10354285

>>10354278
What if you could make wide guys get rid of themselves

>> No.10354320

>>10354285
You could make thinner doors.

>> No.10354415

>>10353993
Most of what you wrote is just science fiction fearmongering, but if we do cause ecological collapse at least whatever rises will be more resilient to harsh environments.

>> No.10354420

>>10354415
Lol.

>> No.10354464

>>10354256
I didn't make this thread to discuss race wars you subhuman. And it won't fix Europe's birth rates.
>If we just killed every black guy, somehow whites would start having kids
That's not how it works.

>>10354058
I don't know the exact reason they are declining and if they'll actually continue to decline after the economic welfare incentives fail. You can pay people to have kids but individualistic people with lots of money will not want their precious time wasted in exchange for that money.
You have to spend sleepless nights taking care of kids.

>> No.10354494

>>10354015
kek

>> No.10354498 [DELETED] 

>>10353960
If the niggers can't save the human then who can?

>> No.10354543

>>10353960
Declining populations are unambiguously good for your descendants, if you have descendants.

>> No.10355394

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that Earth can't hold hundreds of trillions of people, but as anons have pointed out already, it's largely a matter of economics. More people = More shit (yes, to include literal shit) = More business = More money circulating, and all that fancy sophomore-level economics speak.
That being said, as it's stated many times before, there's a certain point of technology/progress/development/etc. populations begin to plateau. In which, except in the case of global disasters (diseases that make the black plague look like a common cold, global nukyular ("nuclear" for all you educated people), and the such), countries' populations will solve its own problems. Japan may fall off out of the top 5 economic powers, but no way anime land is just gonna disappear.

>> No.10355814

>>10353960
declining *fertility_rate* does not mean declining *population* fgt pls

>> No.10355985

>>10355814
Eventually it does

>> No.10356020

That's not declining population, just declining birth rates that are still far above replacement.
They can thank better medical care for this - instead of having to shit out 9 niglets to have 2 or 3 make it to adulthood, they only have to shit out 4 or 5.

>> No.10356025

Declining populations are a positive for anyone not tied to business exponential growth models. Automation will lead to forced decline, hopefully not violently.

>>10354256
Ok how about just everyone in Africa and South America because of the population spread and capability of the population. That should be enough. Basing it strictly on location is less than optimal though. Anyone with <90 IQ which would be most of the population previously mentioned but also deal with some issues around the rest of the world.

>> No.10356112

>>10356020
Japan had a 0.5% rate of population decline in 2018.
If this rate continues then in ~170 years it will have dropped to its 1918 level of population and in ~640 years it will be down to the one 1000 years ago.

As you see there isn't much time left. Only mass immigration from Africa can prevent this.

>> No.10356120

>>10353993
You have no fucking clue what AI is or how it works. I see this post in every fucking thread. Educate yourself.

>> No.10356173
File: 219 KB, 4400x2700, Demographic-TransitionOWID.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10356173

>>10353960
Do americans just not learn the demographic transition model? It's literally 16yo GCSE geography to learn the variety of factors that cause this

>>10356112
>If this rate continues then in ~170 years
As if there is any chance of this happening

>> No.10356216

>>10356173
First >70IQ post in this thread

>> No.10356362

>>10356173
>natural increase
>implying humans follow natural models
>implying animals have birth control pills and economies

>> No.10356364

>>10356120
Educate me.

>> No.10356367

>>10356216
>>10356173
>>10356025
>>10354256
>Let's genocide all non-/pol/tards and our race is saved
>our birthrates will fix on their own!
>once populations are rock bottom, they will rise up because somehow people will lose their social anxiety and have kids somehow

>> No.10356368

>>10356020
Birth rate has fallen below replacement in many countries.

>> No.10356372

PROTIP

The people who matter will continue to reproduce. Do not fret. An emotional revolution is on the horizon. Do what you can to be a good person and enjoy your existence.

>> No.10356375

>>10356372
People who matter don't reproduce. Newton didn't have kids. Tesla didn't have kids.

>> No.10356474

>>10356375
>two examples only
Nice

>> No.10356483

>>10356375
Darwin had like 7 kids. Fuck off.

>> No.10356508

>>10356173
>Do americans just not learn the demographic transition model?
American here, I sure didn't. Geography and world history are not given a lot of attention in our public schools, history education here is almost exclusively national. Even non-British colonization of the Americas receives startlingly little attention.

>> No.10356528

>>10356483
Darwin wasn't someone who mattered. He created athiests. He'll have to answer for that

>> No.10356543

>>10356528
Is it funnier that what you're saying is completely stupid or that you can't even spell?

>> No.10356545

>>10356528
he mattered to anyone with an innate curiosity as to how life came to be at the point it's at now. whiny atheists are a small price to pay for that imo

>> No.10356586

>>10354256
Try to get rid of me, faggot. I challenge you.

>> No.10356648
File: 875 KB, 1920x1080, 1548226352977.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10356648

This has to be the most toxic board I've ever come across. Only took about two hours on this ship before, i knew it was time to abandon.

>> No.10356720
File: 349 KB, 814x873, tumblr_lqxpuxYWfM1qbz5ydo1_1280.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10356720

>>10356648
It really is. If it wasn't for a need to inform many people about the dangers of wireless technology, I wouldn't more than skim the catalog for interesting news every once in a while.

It's brutally conformist.

>> No.10356800

>>10356648
>reddit refugee finds out that the 4chins is not was his parasite ilk told him it was
>>10356720
>/x/tard admits to spamming retardation all over /sci/ on a regular basis
Just another day on the boards