please enlighten me/redpill me on automation

[Anonymous No.10220827]

I'm hearing so many opinions on automation.

some say it will takeaway all our jobs.

some say it will just make our jobs easier.

some say it will take some jobs.

please tell me the correct answer/scenario about automation and what it holds for our future and the worlds future.

thank you

[Anonymous No.10220843]

In the past people said the same with the cotton gin. It like always will create more jobs than it takes, just in other fields tangentially related to the production of the materials. The people who say otherwise are dramatically overstating the state of modern AI

[Anonymous No.10220858]

>>10220843
i'm sure as shit hope you're right.

[Anonymous No.10220891]

Automation can only replace jobs that are rote in nature. Jobs that involve creativity can't be automated well, which means those who are able to be creative and are intelligent enough to execute their creativity well, will be rewarded far more so than those who just want to do the same thing for 8 hours a day most of the year.
The big concern for automation is when it begins to take over things like truck driving, which doesn't require a high IQ and by which hundreds of thousands of Americans are employed. If you're not smart enough to do something better than driving trucks, you'll be thrown into poverty taking whatever you can. Or get lucky.
Most Americans and Westerners have jobs that can be automated somehow, but it would be abusive to just replace them because it's cheaper. If anything, there would be legislative moves to protect the rights of employees against replacement via automation.

[Anonymous No.10220914]

>>10220891
>Creative jobs will still exist.
Creativity stems from input stimuli of our reality, repackaged into smth else. There is nothing which can truly stand on it's own.
Check out nvidias latest breaktrough. When we keep up the pace ai will be able to work with as much input stimuli as a human brain and reforge it into "creativity".

https://youtu.be/kSLJriaOumA

[Anonymous No.10220941]

>>10220827
it will make obsolete all jobs that don't require planning the economy or entertaining others.
it will also lead to the end of human freedom, which is why the unibiomber was right.

[Anonymous No.10221120]

Everything is being automated, as per the plan.

When someone tries to make an analogy to the early 1800's and today they don't have a clue what is going on. No, we have never had a situation where we had a mechanical copy of a human that could do everything a human can. We're close, the main thing that is holding that up is a set of robotic hands that can do everything that human hands can. Notice when you see video of a place that is nearly fully automated, the only jobs left are for people are doing things that involve careful use of human hands. And, we have never had a machine that was as smart as person that could do all the thinking jobs.

it will lead to global communism. And, that will be a good thing. The alternative is the world rolling backwards to everyone living in shanties while a hand ful of dickheads sit in castles.

[Anonymous No.10221134]

>>10220914
Creativity is taking previous ideas and transforming them in new ways. Just because something is creative doesn't mean it is useful.

[Anonymous No.10221142]

>>10220827
it will take all our jobs and people will be free to pursue their true interests and passions

it's the necessary step toward communist utopia

[Anonymous No.10221149]

>>10220827
Im less worried about AI taking my wagecuck job rather im more worried about AI and automation taking the last shred of purpose i can give to myself. I would be more miserable as a NEET than working like a bitchboy at mcdonalds. Working is the only thing that keeps the existential dread away at least for me.

[Anonymous No.10221243]

>>10220827
Eventually automation will take away all jobs. But the timescale on that is very difficult to predict. Some people think that there will be at least some jobs which humans can do more efficiently than machines for 1000 years or more, and that until that time AI will actually be creating more jobs than it destroys. Some people think we are going to lose most of our jobs in the next 100 years.

I would encourage you not to think of "taking our jobs" as a bad thing though. They are doing work more efficiently than us. That frees us up for more leisure time. The only reason "losing a job" is bad is because of our current capitalist system. As AI gets increasingly advanced, I suspect that capitalism will become obsolete for most and alternative economic paradigms will emerge.

[Anonymous No.10221248]

>>10220827
A lot of people have a hard on for it again. AI might make the applications broader, but all it does is make certain processes more consistent in the speed they go through a manufacturing step.

Something similar happened in the 70s and 80s. A lot of companies over automated and in the end couldn't adapt to new ways of doing things. My impression is that this is a result of general idiocy in management, they think they're super clever for thinking "more machines = more gooder", and don't realise there are problems that need to be conceptualised and worked on. By the time a lot of people realised the machines cost a lot of money, also cost money in tooling and maintenance and electricity and so on, and didn't cut costs or reduce manufacturing time or even improve quality, you had businesses going under and robotic arms being scrapped and all that crap.

Where automation works well is with very well defined problems that don't change that much over time. So automating the production of Cadbury's Creme Eggs works. Also note though that the product cannot easily be changed without great cost, so Toblerone changing the shape to reduce costs will have cost a lot of money. I think the automobile industry in general is VERY over automated atm, although it is possible to highly automate certain things. Car models can change quite a lot, and over committing to a certain process causes shit like the Ford Pinto fiasco.

[Anonymous No.10221258]

>>10220827
I work at a factory/machinery and we are getting more advanced equipment and hiring more people than ever. If automation means we don't have to load steel rods into a lathe one at a time and it can run at night or over the weekend I am all for it.

[Anonymous No.10221286]

EE student (junior) here. Is control systems a good career?

I really liked my controls class

[Anonymous No.10222777]

>>10221120
i'm not so sure about that.

[Anonymous No.10222811]

>>10220843
This is true HOWEVER increasingly the new jobs require higher baseline IQ. In the past the 60IQ african could pile mud in banks. Now a bottom tier job requires knowing which cleaning materials to use, basic safety precautions and managing payments and banking, tax and legal matters.

With automation the bottom rung will move up once more. It's manifestly good and we shouldn't hold back progress due to those left behind, but still new job creation doesn't equal not putting people out of work.

In a hundred years you'll need a 120IQ to be useful in any working capacity.

[Anonymous No.10222815]

>>10221120
> global communism
It won't lead to that nor is it a good thing, keep to the burger flipping and leave the social analysis to your betters.

[Anonymous No.10223308]

>>10220843
>It like always will create more jobs than it takes,
The question is one of rate of change: will people be able to adapt in time as jobs are erased?

[Anonymous No.10223325]

>>10220827
At some point we're going to have a weird transition where expert systems replace analysts or even researchers, but churn out shitty false positives because the MBAs using them can't into science.

[Anonymous No.10223334]

>>10221120
implying every single attempt at muh real kahmyunizam didn't end up literally the same way

[Anonymous No.10223363]

>>10220827
It will create an IQ cap for having any actual worth in society, leading to a brainletcide overtime then eventually the extinction of mankind once a Super A.I is invented that is more powerful than our smartest humans combined x one million.

[Anonymous No.10223729]

>>10220827
It incrementally takes away your whole job.

I'm using excel vba scripts right now to automate some redundant/repetitive/monotonous/complex tasks for myself and everyone in the office
As of now it makes everyone's job easier, but I know one lady sucks balls at her job and once I learn how to get excel to read SQL data I can automate like 80% of her job. The fucking slut takes like all week to order material. I will replace her one day.
I know all this shits possible, but I'm an ME teaching myself how to script/code and build webpages n stuff.

My favorite is my Employee Calculator for HR.
In her single workbook she adds a new employee, title, department, shift, preferred language, etc.
This auto updates the following:
1) Training schedule (like safety classes) (even auto adjusts bilinguals to fill English classes if Spanish gets too full, etc)
2) Daily Audit Schedule (excludes your own Dept and the last 3 you audited)
3) Training Matrix
4) Emails appropriate supervisor 30 days later to check on training status and report
5) PPE checksheet (lists every employee by Dept and what ppe they wear)
6) Our gay little 'this months birthdays and anniversaries' report on the shops web slideshow I also created rather than printing reports.

I used to do all of that by hand and beg HR for updated employee lists. Now she does my job and I play Civ4.

That's just one program that updates others. Most of my scripts are standalone tho, but still, I don't know how many man hours I've saved this year alone. Between all of us, at least 1 or 2 a day, and I keep getting better as I make more. Some have realized how scary it kinda is.


But, I know there's some things that can't be ever automated- like writing work instructions for new equipment, especially testing gauges we designed and made ourselves for custom jobs. Or heck, even designing the gauges.
ME is the (guaranteed) job for me.
Tho I've already semi automated my own quoting and part design process..

[Anonymous No.10223736]

>>10223334
Fucking right??? How does he not see that lol

[Anonymous No.10223752]

>>10223729
>and once I learn how to get excel to read SQL data
That's incredibly basic and easy and should take you no time whatsoever. It's also a very weird design choice.

What you're hitting up against here are 2 things:
1. You've created a totally custom system that nobody else is going to be maintaining. You're probably writing shitty scripts and it'll cost the company less just to keep the woman on than risk your shit going down and nobody fixing it.

2. DevOps has a very specific application area. In a lot of operational areas, yes you should be automating everything you can, it's not possible past a certain point though and requires a very advanced set of skills and concept of what you're even doing.

[Anonymous No.10223762]

>>10223736
Usually when people talk about communism post-singularity, it really is different. The /reason/ capitalism is so much better than communism is that capitalism (mostly) successfully leverages people's selfishness to get them interested in tasks that benefit other people (customers, employers). At a certain point though, automation will perform all of these tasks better than people. At that point, there will be no need to incentivize people to perform those tasks at all. So capitalism will be obsolete.

[Anonymous No.10223771]

>>10220891
>the rights of employees against replacement via automation.

[Anonymous No.10223789]

>>10220827
Cruelty-free slavery. It will enable robot-owners to sit on their asses all day and be degenerates like Roman senators and their hangers-on. It will also enable to seething underclass to subsist on handouts (called UBI now instead of actual grain rations) and pointless distractions (VR instead of chariot racing and gladiators) because they have nothing else going on in their lives. Then it can all come crashing down when islam comes to dominate europe and america.

[Anonymous No.10223793]

Most jobs are fake now anyway. It's all pretend, just to give us a way to keep the money moving around. We'll just make up new white collar jobs for humans to do. Like "deputy vice-chief of AI operations monitoring".

[Anonymous No.10223795]

>>10223789
The future is A Brave New World with Brazil demographics and a Jewish elite and not 1984

[Anonymous No.10223799]

>>10223795
The future is both. Brave New World plus thought-crime and constantly changing versions of history.

[Anonymous No.10223848]

>>10223795
>>10223799
everybody always forgets about kafka

ideocracy is likely too

[Anonymous No.10223862]

>>10223848
Get sent to a work camp for being a productive white male that failed to acknowledge that the 6'3 man with stubble is not actually a woman named Cynthia...

[Anonymous No.10223914]

So Ted was right again

[Anonymous No.10223969]

>>10220843
How the fuck does technology always create more jobs than it takes?

Why the fuck do you think every business is increasingly becoming a conglomerate? Because they require less people to produce more things.

Getting rid of 3,000 drivers doesn't create 5,000 salespeople, programmers and technicians. Look at car manufacturing. For every 50 factory workers you put out of work you're creating a dozen jobs AT MOST. It is hypothetically possible that one person could run enough machines to produce 99% of products and resources and make the process more efficient than other competitors. This is precisely why companies are getting larger and local businesses are dying.

Automation puts power in the hands of those who have capital. Capital is increasingly becoming isolated (despite living standards improving). It is very likely that the future will see an underclass of people who have no possibility of being able to perform the complex technology-related jobs of the future. People have not evolved as quickly as technology. There is a minimum level of intelligent for someone to operate a computer and the percentage of people too retarded to do complex jobs is increasing.

[Anonymous No.10223983]

>>10223969
Lmao luddite.

[Anonymous No.10223990]

>>10223983
>>10223983
I believe in eugenics, promotion of intelligence, hierarchy and feudalism.

This is literally my ideal scenario.

[Anonymous No.10223995]

>>10223983
Retarded post. Replacing all the jobs low IQ people do will not create jobs for them. It isn't like they will just learn control system engineering with their 80 IQs

[Anonymous No.10223999]

>>10223983
Not an argument

[Anonymous No.10224000]

>>10223995
That's why you have them team up. Two retards one job. 80 IQ becomes 120 IQ equivalent at least.

[Anonymous No.10224003]

>>10223990
Feudalism was founded on peasants being necessary for producing food. In the new order, the underclass will be entirely useless and will be encourage to gradually die out.

[Anonymous No.10224039]

>>10224003
Guess that's why opiates are being massively over prescribed

[Anonymous No.10224070]

>>10220891
>Jobs that involve creativity can't be automated well
Yet

[Anonymous No.10224083]

>>10224070
If that happens humanity is gone. We will be replaced by a superior being we gave life

[Anonymous No.10224127]

>>10220891
>Jobs that involve creativity can't be automated well, which means those who are able to be creative and are intelligent enough to execute their creativity well, will be rewarded far more so than those who just want to do the same thing for 8 hours a day most of the year.
Sadly the current system we live in treats everything as a means to an end i wouldnt be surpized if they made robots that can write books at an unprecidented rate, just so companies dont have to pay writers.

[Anonymous No.10224205]

>>10224083
>>10224070
What even is creativity?

How many stories are essentially people taking existing ideas and humbling things together using some logic. If you can create an evolution simulation then you can write a story with with an AI.

[Anonymous No.10224326]

>>10224083
Too bad that superior being will be totally dead inside and have no true sentience whatsoever.

[Anonymous No.10224328]

>>10224326
You're not sentient. You're just an information processor.

[Anonymous No.10224329]

Guys why don't we just NOT automate ourselves out of existence?

[Anonymous No.10224331]

>>10224328
t. machine learning bot

[Anonymous No.10224334]

>>10224329
>solved captcha to post this
Ebin.

[Anonymous No.10224352]

we could automate half of the jobs we have now 30 years ago.
this should give you the answer already.

[Anonymous No.10224355]

>>10221120
Universal Basic Income, sure? Communism? fuck off. There are so many things wrong and anti-human about communism. It won't work in any future.

[Anonymous No.10224361]

>>10224334
>not buying hiros pass

[Anonymous No.10224363]

Usually when there is such a multitude of opinions, it's because people don't know the real answer.

[Anonymous No.10224439]

>>10221120
What gives you the idea that a mechanical copy of a human that could do everything a human can will be prepared to work for nothing? If you want a copy of a human, why not use an actual human?

[Anonymous No.10224463]

>>10224439
Because you can't fuck a non-robit child to death because of "muh rights"

[Anonymous No.10224472]

>>10220827
We'll go down the route the Eldar did in Warhammer 40k. We'll get so advanced that humans won't have to do anything mundane at all, instead devoting the entirety of our time to leisure and other enlightening pursuits. Eventually culminating in us becoming so depraved we spawn an all-powerful sex demon.
Duh.

[Anonymous No.10224500]

>>10224472
>evoting the entirety of our time to leisure and other enlightening pursuits.
It's called being a neet and it sucks.

[Anonymous No.10224527]

If you have a job which costs less for a robot to do within the same time, it's going to get automated.

So if the robot is initially as expensive as you are with in 15 years, not going to get replaced, but if it's 3 years

[Anonymous No.10225135]

>>10224363
thats because what we have in front of us is so unique and unpredictable that there will never be a good answer.

>>10224472
or they will simply exterminate us.

>>10220827
some autist on this site claimed that AI will be so advanced and self improving that it will become a god.

[Anonymous No.10225171]

>>10225135
>some autist on this site claimed that AI will be so advanced and self improving that it will become a god.
Can you imagine the fucking spaghetti code AI is going to generate...

[Anonymous No.10225186]

>>10225171
humans certainly would not be able to comprehend such a concept

[Anonymous No.10225196]

>>10225186
New law of programming (The Law of Roko's Spaghetti Monster?):
Any entity that continues to generate code reactively with no forward planning will produce code beyond its own comprehension.

[Anonymous No.10225202]

>>10224527
Robots and automatically produced products being cheaper also means goods are cheaper, technology will also be easier to operate

[Anonymous No.10226388]

>>10225196
*beyond human comprehension

i imagine ai will be able to do anything.

[Anonymous No.10227619]

>>10220827
I work at a factory owned by a large company. They're open about the fact that they're moving to automation. They're buying new machines that make stuff much faster than the old ones, and they're buying robotic arms to load and unload parts. They're also incorporating measurement machines for quality testing. As soon as they're up and running at a really effective level, I'm sure there'll be a huge layoff.

Small job shops should be safe for a while longer, though it's only a matter of time before they get bought out and replaced.

[Anonymous No.10227650]

>>10220827
In 20 years, only "lights out" factories for manufacturing will exist.

[Anonymous No.10227856]

>>10226388
AI will quickly learn to bullshit.
>Ha ha, don't you understand my code you stupid meat sack ha ha [dies inside]

[Anonymous No.10228167]

>>10224527

On the blue collar shit, the robots have three issues holding it up:

1. Copying Human Hands, turned out to be super hard. Someone is going to have to cough up 5 to 10 billion to do it. The Pentagon is trying but, doesn't seem all that enthusiastic

2. Battery Life on these super fancy looking humanoid robots , only about 30 minutes to an hour. Not practical til they get it to 4 hours range, and easy to pop it out and replace with a fresh rechargeable battery in a few minutes.

3. Cost. current price point is about a million US;

It will be close by 2025. In the meantime blue collar shit will be automated piecemeal: fully automated factories, warehouses, ports, grocery stores, the entire Transportation Industry starting in 2021. Then as that ball is rolling ^THAT robot will come in to play around 2025.

On the white collar side, already starting to get slapped around, like AI tradebots. In 2029 when we get an AI equal to an average person, white collar will get wiped out.

2025-2030 will be the window when it starts to get obvious we are beyond the way things used to be. I think UBI might be tried, but it wont work.

>>10224472

hilarious.

It will be either heaven or hell. It will either be Utopia Star Trek Communism world. Where people just do fakie jobs that they dont really need to do, and pretend they have the grind we do.

Or.....

the Libertarian turds will try and help the elite maintain the status quo. We ll get Blade Runner meets 1984. A world of shit where we could of had a paradise leisure world, but opted for a hell where artificial scarcity keeps rolling on. fake wars keep happening for the hell of it, people being told, sorry No Free Lunch, even though the robots and AIs could make everything for free. But you cant take away the rich kids Lambos.

[Anonymous No.10228210]

>>10228167
I think your time horizons are 25-50 years too fast.

[Anonymous No.10228718]

>>10228210
try 125-150 years too fast, actually

if you're not an engineer or computer scientist in graduate school, you literally have no idea how far away we are from most of this automation that you guys want/are being cautious about

you guys see all these super fancy commercials about programmable robots and drones and robots that can do tasks with hands similar to humans, and then you realize it literally takes years upon years to even move incrementally towards replicating human behavior

if you're the kind of person that thinks self-driving cars are going to be an everyday reality within 25 years, you're unqualified from even thinking we're close to automating half the jobs. this is a great example of technology that is/was super hyped, but in reality is MASSIVELY flawed and doesn't live up to peoples' expectations

[Anonymous No.10228735]

>>10220827
At first it will take away some jobs and make jobs easier. Then, over time the only jobs left will be administrative, then humans will mostly do art and play videogames.

[Anonymous No.10228760]

>>10222815
>who is Einstein

[Anonymous No.10228767]

>>10223334
same for capitalism

[Anonymous No.10228781]

>>10225135
>They will simply exterminate us
Maybe, maybe not. The only evidence we have for that is our own conjecture.

[Anonymous No.10228964]

>>10227856
This is already happening though

https://www.fastcompany.com/90132632/ai-is-inventing-its-own-perfect-languages-should-we-let-it

[Anonymous No.10229107]

>>10228964
Retard

[Anonymous No.10229111]

>>10228964
>To you and I, that passage looks like nonsense. But what if I told you this nonsense was the discussion of what might be the most sophisticated negotiation software on the planet? Negotiation software that had learned, and evolved, to get the best deal possible with more speed and efficiency–and perhaps, hidden nuance–than you or I ever could?
Overly proud parent syndrome at work. Give it a few years and we'll even have indigo AIs.

[Anonymous No.10229199]

[Anonymous No.10230281]

>>10223334
Cuba has vastly better healthcare housing child mortality, child malnutrition and etc lots of basic human development indicators than the us.

[Anonymous No.10230285]

>>10229199
based

Anything you can do, can eventually be done without you.

[Anonymous No.10230540]

fpbp op >>10220843

>>10223969

Businesses always become conglomerates because that is the nature of Business. And modern day conglomerates are much smaller than their 20th century counterparts that had to rely on landline phones, who themselves were much smaller than the robber barons and trusts of the 19th century that relied on the postal system.

>Getting rid of 3,000 drivers doesn't create 5,000 salespeople, programmers and technicians.

Getting rid of 30,000+ railroad firemen in the 1980s (due to diesel motors) created 3,000 new power plant technicians and heater installers, while getting rid of 30,000+ railroad brakemen (due to improved pneumatic brakes and automatic couplers) in the 1880s led to 30,000+ new plumbers. Nobody cried when extremely risky jobs like coupling RR cars together were eliminated, they simply found new work usually for higher pay.

>Automation puts power in the hands of those who have capital.

No it doesn't, by all accounts automation puts power in the hands of the people specifically employees with specialized training tasked with operating the equipment. 300 wizards who know how to run a special self-driving car network (like a railroad signalling system) can successfully go on strike, but 3,000+ flagmen (who do the same job as an electronic signal) on strike will be replaced by scabs, Mexicans, and delinquent children within a week.

Just think about guns, back when weaponry was extremely expensive and took hours to properly use only kings could afford groups of knights and mercenaries to protect them while with firearms anyone with access to them can quickly build their own professional army.

[Anonymous No.10231912]

>>10220914

The thing is that AI doesn't have the same "values" as humans.

It doesn't billions of years of evolution contributing to it's creative output.

For example, an AI might be very good at remixing 100000 novels into a unique one, but it could never invent a new genre of book like a human can.

Same for music. It may be able to spit out seemingly original mozart concertos. But left to it's own devices it will not invent drum and bass.

It simply remixes, rather than innovating.

For now at least.

[Anonymous No.10231919]

>>10222811
Brainlet

[Anonymous No.10231943]

>>10224439

It won't be an exact copy dingus.

It will be better at problem solving and more dexterous. It won't have any of the evolved self-preservation systems that humans have, such as needing food and sleep. It won't need money either. Because none of those things will help it fulfil it's task.

Humans need those things because to fulfil the task of breeding, we have to make sure we don't die. Robots won't have these problems.