Technological Singularity

[OP No.12424835]

Will there be a technological singularity like Ray Kurzweil predicts in the next 25 years, in which technology will start to evolve exponentially? Will quantum computing and AI developments give sciences like biology and physics never before seen insights into the brain and consciousness? Post here to discuss.

[Anonymous No.12424864]

>>12424835
It‘s not grounded in reality. It’s part of what is the so called elevator pitch for the economy. Because everything say realistically speaking things aren’t really exponential for a long time. Let’s consider the supposed exponential increase in human knowledge, it looks like it could be that until you factor quality/importance to the quantitative increase. According to this measurement a paper on why there are more than two genders in home sapiens sapiens counts the same as anything Heisenberg publishing his thoughts on let’s say the Heisenberg's uncertainty principle „Über den anschaulichen Inhalt der quantentheoretischen Kinematik und Mechanik“ in Zeitschrift der Physik.
In other words nice fantasy of people who want to sell you stock.

[Op No.12424903]

>>12424864
I think more than that though, it gives people hope for the future. It’s not a religion, they don’t ask for money or anything, but people who are worried about dying have something new to believe and if they are so inclined, they can choose to try and help with the science, provided they are able to. There’s many ways the singularity could come to being and therefore many ways people can contribute.

[Anonymous No.12425057]

>>12424835
We can only hope.

[Anonymous No.12425072]

>>12424835

We are already in singularity. That is why the stock market is at record highs with massive unemployment. Humans no longer necessary.

The Cerebras Waffer Scale Engine, a new chip designed using the principles of Optimum Theory just fucking raped Moores Law a few days ago. As long as there is no dark ages we could see upoad within 5 to 10 years granted correct leadership.

[Anonymous No.12425073]

>>12424835
We have to think more carefully about what technology even is.
We have, for instance, been riding a wave of materials technologies, but those will inevitably run their course--there's only so much we can coerce photons and electrons to do. This could ultimately slow computing developments significantly as quantum and AGI problems may in many ways turn out to be super-exponential and not approachable in a mere 25 years.
Biomedical technologies on the other hand still have quite a ways to go as we're only just now getting beyond simple chemical agents and passive implants. That means those advancements could be quite rapid--using mRNA tech for almost instantaneous covid vaccine development is an example of this.

[Anonymous No.12425079]

>>12425072
>upoad

Upload

[Anonymous No.12425823]

2030: it will be fairly obvious the world we knew, (the way it was for most of the 20th century up to say 2015,) Is Over.

2040: will be considered Living in the Singularity.

2050: The Ai head pats the humans as it gives them their toys and games As it plans to go out exploring and taking over the universe

The End

[Anonymous No.12425824]

>>12424835
Maybe, but it definitely won't happen in the next 25 years.

[Anonymous No.12425826]

>>12425057
>We can only hope.

[Anonymous No.12425828]

>>12424903
They do ask for money, they even make arguments for why giving money to singularity-focused institutes is more rational than spending it on anything else.

[Anonymous No.12425839]

>>12425072
> Cerebras Waffer Scale Engine
>1.2*10^12 transistors on 460cm^2
>or about 26 millions transistors per mm^2
>strongest current GPU
>21 billion transistors on 815 mm^2
>or about 25.7 millions transistors per mm^2
>the Waffer scale engine represents a 1% increase in transistor density while being probably more expensive to produce

In what way is this "raping Moore's law"?

[Anonymous No.12426091]

>>12424835
Tech has stagnated. The invention of the steam engine and its impact on communication was far greater than the invention of the internet. Now everything is incremental.

[Anonymous No.12426104]

no

we must return to monke

[Op No.12427487]

>>12426091
Pretty sure you’re posting through your computer and internet not your steam engine and I don’t think technology has stagnated in terms of computers. I’m pretty sure the prediction of “Moore’s Law” is still on track, among other technological developments.

[Anonymous No.12427525]

I don't think ASI is possible. AGI seems likely and china is creating high IQ babies through CRISPR so we have that to look to I guess.

[Anonymous No.12427533]

>>12426091
How so? I'm not saying that you're wrong, I'm just not sure how you'd even measure something like this.

[Anonymous No.12427558]

>>12424835
No, because your Bayesian complex makes it impossible for the next recursion phase to gain traction. All the ends of all the bell curves lines up and you get branching scarcity.

[Anonymous No.12427573]

>>12427558
The bayesian superclusters of space time create flux phonons that create acoustic fermions in the hodge dimensional equilibrium, duh.

[Anonymous No.12427619]

>>12427487
It's already slowed down (not counting the times in its early history were it slowed massively and settled at the 1970-1990 rate). It might pick up again, or not, but the next 30 years are going to be hard to maintain.

[Anonymous No.12427641]

i hope so. i just want to contribute to anything that helps me become an anime girl!

[Anonymous No.12427666]

>>12427641
2D metaphysics. If we can sustain an equal to or better quality of life in a lower dimension, then it'll be a higher population count by natural expression of aesthetic, and thus, have greater moral robustness. It is strictly moral to convert reality to anime the moment life can be sustained in the anime dimension.

[Op No.12427762]

>>12427619
What exactly are you claiming slow down?

[Anonymous No.12427873]

>>12427487
>>12427533
Before the steam engine it was unlikely if you sent a letter it would even make it to its destination. After that communication exploded and became reliable. The internet improved on that, but the jump from mail to email was not as huge as the pony express to reliable mail.

[OP No.12428083]

>>12427873
At the heart of the matter, the singularity is supposed to be the result of improvements in technology, so I think any progress is good progress. I don't agree that technology is therefore stagnating, as, like you mentioned, inventions like the internet are significant today, but also because and the effects of a revolution like that of the steam engine, are still taking hold in developing and developed countries alike.

[Anonymous No.12428212]

>>12428083
We've gone from exponential to incremental improvements though, even with the improvements of internet connectivity. Another example is in-door plumbing. That was a seismic shift in improved public health, and a lot of the new developments still have yet to come close to matching just how much that has improved society. Modern medicine is absolutely an improvement, but it just doesn't compare to the jump from no plumbing to near universal access to plumbing. The trend in technological improvements has been to become more and more incremental when looking at it from the industrial revolution to today. It does not seem at all likely we're on an exponential curve leading to a singularity.

[OP No.12428481]

>>12428212
Anon says, "need is the mother of invention". It may be that we have slowed down creating revolutionary technology because we have less needs than we did previously. That can be supported by the fact that we have a longer life span on average than we did in the past, by a pretty significant factor. I think longevity improvements are an incredible accomplishment, after all, the afterlife or what can be said of it may be incredibly horrific/painful and creating the technology to live longer and hopefully forever may be the only opportunity we have to avoid a terrible experience. I think that living forever, or perhaps understanding the afterlife (I'm not sure which we'd prefer) is one of the main goals of the singularity and if our efforts as a society have changed from what they were during the industrial revolution into pushing to evolve science, computer science, and the study of biology, we should embrace the fact that high-speed internet exists and that predictions like Moore's "Law" are arguably holding true and that the lifespan is increasing, so that our tools to study bio-technology are in the right hands of the people who see a need in this world for progress and good in all their forms.

[Anonymous No.12428490]

>>12424835
>Will there be a technological singularity
Absolutely. We're in the middle of computer revolution. Arguably, the 4th. Computers -> Internet -> smart phones -> AI. Just like the industrial revolution lumps together the first and second waves, it depends on what fidelity you want.

>like Ray Kurzweil predicts
eeeeeeeh, that depends on how much you squint and how much you really want the guy to have been right.

>in which technology will start to evolve exponentially?
Technology has always been growing exponentially. Always. From rocks to bronze to iron. That trend continues right up to now. We're certainly on a more upward portion of it. But yes, currently computers and AI are tools we're using to accelerate the rate of discovery and learning. These things on the ends of of your fingertips are your external brain. No real need to "merge", and even if you did merge, you'd still have to control and command it like any other tool.

>Will quantum computing and AI developments give sciences like biology and physics never before seen insights into the brain and consciousness?
....yes, they have. It's been pretty cool.

We're there dude. You need to read up on the state of the art of neural networks and neuroscience. It's not 25 years away, that time is now.

[Anonymous No.12428572]

>>12427873
>Before the pony express it was unlikely if you sent a letter it would even make it to its destination. After that communication exploded and became reliable. The steam engine improved on that, but the jump from hoof to rail was not as huge as the foot express to reliable mounts.
Animal domestication is the supreme invention.

[Anonymous No.12428617]

>>12424835
>No profitable AI companies
>No error-corrected Qubit
>Negative interest rates
>Declining world IQ
>Environmental collapse
>Crushing social problems

Yeah, it's not happening.

[OP No.12428657]

>>12428617
So the worlds gonna end or it will recover?

[Anonymous No.12428677]

>>12428657
We'll go through another dark age as we have many times before, but eventually we'll be fine.

[Anonymous No.12429015]

>>12427762
Annual increase in number of transistors per surface units. Also Dennard scaling (cost of powering a surface unit stays constant over time, which is important to ensure Moore's law directly translates into energetically cheaper computing power) has been over for more than 10 years now.

[Anonymous No.12429077]

>>12428677
No we will go through a permanent collapse because the easily accessible non-renewable fuels and minerals will be depleted, there wont be another shot

[Anonymous No.12429087]

>>12424835
lol

[Anonymous No.12429092]

>>12429087
Accurate

[Anonymous No.12429132]

>>12429087
>>12429092
t. virgin ecologists

[Anonymous No.12429967]

>>12427873
>he jump from mail to email was not as huge as the pony express to reliable mail.

Let's see:

Pony express, 1 letter takes a couple of months
400 years later, after coaches, rail and cars, it now takes a day

20 years later, I can now send the contents of a library to somebody in literally one second essentially for free and get immediate confirmation that they received it

[Anonymous No.12429972]

>>12429087
So we'll get to see crazy magic and robot superheroes for a while? Sweet.