/sci/ - Science & Math

>>9947872
2/3

>>9947872
50%

2/3

first gold ball implies that its either box 1 or box 2

if its box 1, it is gold
if its box 2, it is silver

50%

>>9948691
this seems right to me

>>9948691
adding onto it:
the answer is 2/3 if you take into account the first gold ball being picked as having a probability, since it is more likely that the first gold ball was in box 1 than in box 2

first pick could've been: b1,b1 or b2

probability of b1 is 2/3 and it implies that the next ball must be gold

>>9948691
the issue is you have to consider that if you've drawn a gold ball the probability of it being the first box is twice as high as the second

>>9948691
but in box 1+box 2 it remains 2 gold + 1 silver
so?

>>9948753
>>9948731
i already corrected myself
>>9948723
i think it explains it well to 50% people

>>9947872

2/3

>>9948691
Just because there are 2 possibilities, doesn't mean it's 50/50
>hurr durr it either happens or it doesn't, therefore it's 50/50

>>9948880
I ALREADY EXPLAINED MYSELF YOU FUCKING IDIOT
>>9948723 YOU SEE??? CAN YOU SEE THAT SHIT >>9948723
I ALREADY EXPLAINED PERFECTLY WELL HERE >>9948723 THAT I CHANGED MY ANSWER YOU FUCKING PIECE OF WORTHLESS PRIMORDIAL SLIME
FUCK YOU!!!!!

white and based

>>9947872
1/2
We can eliminate the box with two sliver balls as we have picked a golden ball, this would leave us with two boxes we could’ve have pick from. Since there’s an equal chance of a sliver or gold because there’s no other option it is therefore 1/2 or 50%

>>9948887
Calm down you stupid nigger. I'm sorry you were too dumb to figure it out the first time

>>9948887
based and cringepilled

>>9947872
Isn’t this the monty hall problem but this time you can’t switch, or that the presenter doesn’t show another goat?

>>9948887
>I ALREADY EXPLAINED PERFECTLY
No you didn't. You explained it like you were being butt fucked by a nigger

>>9948897
What's a cringepill?

>>9947872
>Three boxes: gg, gs, ß
>You pick at random
>get gball so ß is eliminated
>the chances of you picking a sliver ball in the first place is 2/3
>the chances of you picking a golden ball in the first place is 2/3
>next ball you pick can only be two choices (s/g)

>>9947872
If you got a gold ball then there's only three balls left to choose from, two golds and a silver. It doesn't matter which box.

>>9948930
Wrong

>>9947872
2/3. You are TWICE as likely to have picked up the ball from the container that has two golden balls in it.

>>9948723
yeah that is why it is 50%. Becasue you dont consder the case when yo get a silverr ball.

>>9947872
The chance of you getting a gold ball on the first shot is 2/3. The chance of you getting a gold ball on the second shot is still 2/3. That's what's confusing. But (2/3)*(1/2)*(2)=(2/3)

>>9949568
>The chance of you getting a gold ball on the first shot is 2/3
Why ?

>>9949578
that's a good question
I guess it's actually 50/50
idk man nvm

>>9948723
This doesn't make any sense, the initial condition is that the ball has already been drawn.
If you're taking into account the box it was drawn from, then initially you had a 1/3 chance of picking that box, but since a ball has already been drawn, that box's probability is 1, since it's already been picked

I made this image for anyone who doesn't understand.

the box you picked out of couldn't have been the box with two silvers, or box C, because you picked a gold first, which leaves either the possibility of picking the remaining gold out of box A or a gold or a silver out of box B, so 2/3 probability.

>Don't understand Bayes's theorem.
>Piss-poor intuition.
>Can't reason through problems by drawing charts or tables.
>Still willing to go on /sci/ and tell everyone how it "must" be 1/2.
This board is full of idiots.

>>9947872
If I can't see the boxes, how will I know that the second ball comes from the same box as the first one?

>>9947872
50% assuming the conditions stated are met

>>9947872
This one is tricky, there's only two boxes with gold balls you could've grabbed, but three gold balls.

So there is a 2/3 chance I grabbed from the box with 2 gold balls
And a 1/3 chance I grabbed the one from the box with 1 gold ball

So there's a 2/3 chance I get another gold ball from the same box