/sci/ - Science & Math

Oil will never "run out" one day, it will just get progressively expensive the less reserves there are available. And the more expensive they get, more viable other energy sources become.

>>9425271
Why are you nitpicking on the semantics?
By "run out" people don't mean physical zero oil under the ground, but the point when oil becomes too rare to be economically used as a major energy source.

Nuclear? Everything else is a meme. Lowering the population a bit will do some good though.

>>9425276
Do you think the increase in prices of everything will make people accept nuclear power?

>>9425274
but he's right, the semantics matter as you can see
>but the point when oil becomes too rare to be economically used as a major energy source
because you got it backwards: it will stop being used as a major energy source long before it becomes too rare, because it will be too expensive to be relied upon and will be phased out gradually

>>9425293
Phased out by what?

>>9425287
sure enough they will, we just have to wait a little because right now all the oil companies are still profiting from bullshit renewable sources

>>9425263
>Both require huge amounts of land area, have extremely unpredicatble outputs, and are expensive.

This is a meme. Renewable output becomes predictable in the short term, especially when it's a centralized system as opposed to distributed (which you really need for grid management). Natural gas power plants also pair extremely well with centralized renewables due to their ability to quickly change production in response to renewables. No one is saying 100% renewables is the best solution right now, but renewable supplementation of conventional is practical from an economic and engineering standpoint.

Also the LCOE for renewables is lower than conventional, and has been for several years. I feel like you're still living in the 2005 energy market.

Muh market forces
Daily reminder if we were socialist/communist we would have nuclear, wind, solar and this wouldnt be a problem. Inb4 what about this failed state. Marx said that communism could only work in a post industrial society of abundance. Second a lot of those failed states wouldnt be failed states if the cia didnt try to assassinate political leaders and overthrow govenments and no amount of hurr leftypol can change this.

>>9425311

OK, I'm not a capitalist or a free marketist, but how does communism save mankind from peak oil, exactly?

Also, peak oil is a meme.

>>9425296
nuclear

>>9425314
When you have no electricity or cars you dont need oil

>>9425318
If you are dead, you don't need oxygen.

>>9425314
Community of industrial successful area says: "Hey scientific research shows that if we keep using oil at our current rate, we going to run into some issues. Perhaps we should start building nuclear power stations."

Member of community: What about y area which is lacking resources?

Leader of community: Its okay. We will give them some of our resources to leverage them for a while so they can focus on transitioning to nuclear power.

>>9425328
That's just theory. People just don't give away free energy. Nothing is free, not even under communism.

>>9425334
typical capitalist mindset...

>>9425308
>Renewable output becomes predictable in the short term
Requirments for primary frequency control in conventional plants are on the order of seconds. Wind/sun are predictable within hours.
I know that currently output curves are flattened, and grid frequency created, with quick-response gas units and base-demand coal units, but eventually those will no longer be around. We would have to switch to biofuels, for which we need huge areas of monocultures, which obviously poses new problems of economic/agricultural nature.

>>9425314
>peak oil is a meme
You're right. Oil consumption will just keep on going up and up forever. Just like Bitcoin, right?

>>9425263
>known reserves
tell me more about wat we know
mineral rights should be the topic of discussion

>>9425341
>You're right. Oil consumption will just keep on going up and up forever. Just like Bitcoin, right?

Oil won't run out, just as oxygen won't run out. Have you ever heard of Abiotic Oil Theory?

>>9425337
It doesn't take a capitalist mindset to understand that people don't give away things for free as a matter of state policy. Even ''free education'' is not free. Free education costs money and, dare I say, energy.

>>9425263
Adding in the external costs of fossil fuels from pollution makes it prohibitively more expensive than any other energy source. Nuclear and renewables are cheaper.

>>9425370
>Abiotic Oil Theory
Quackery

>>9425430
>muh oil is made from squished dinos.

Sure thing, pal. Abiotic oil is red pill. But if you want to believe your soyboy theory of squished brontosaurus, then go ahead.

>>9425263
You can get a surprising amount of biogas methane and high nitrogen fertilizer from using an anaerobic digester to digest feces and organic wastes from homes and farms. Many countries without huge networks of fossil fuels have been doing this very thing, as well as ones fully networked.

>>9425450
>According to this theory, oil is not a fossil fuel at all, but was formed deep in the Earth's crust from inorganic materials.

>>9425263
>>9425430
they literally posted some shit about oil processes in the fucking mantel you faggot
stop jewing

>>9425263
As we speak there are people in the engineering field as well as physics that are working towards perfecting loss-less wireless energy transfer, and no this isn't a meme it's real. With government or possibly private industry funding we can put large solar farms in orbit and beam it right back down to earth, running nonstop. This technology will allow for robotics to get far more advanced as well.

>>9425771
>wireless energy transfer
How do you think is energy transferred between the Sun and the Earth?

>>9425771
>this isn't a meme it's real
Sure thing bud.

>>9425450
>>9425430
>>9425370
It literally doesn't matter if oil was created abiotically or biogenically - what matters is that it doesn't get replenished at any reasonable economic timescale.
So yes, it will "run out" in that sense.

>>9425341

Interestingly, battery storage is perfect for frequency control of the grid. Alot of baseload units like nuclear and coal can ramp up while the battery is supplying power to the grid. The tesla battery in Australia managed to regulate grid frequency when a coal boiler tripped and the gas turbine couldn't get started in time.

>>9425804
That is the peak oil theory, which is as fraudulent as climate change theory.

>The ice caps are melting, we are all going to die!
>Oh wait, the ice caps are not melting, sorry heheh.
>Oh no, it is getting colder, we are all going to die! >Oops, it seems it doesn't get colder, sorry sor scaring you like that haha.

>>9425771
Space based solar is a meme, it'll always be cheaper and provide more power to put 4 panels on the ground than 1 in orbit.

>>9425263
europe and north america are going full renewables in the next two decades
india, china and south america will be kill

Populations will drastically lower as the renewable resources will only be able to support a fraction of the current population and world trade isn't going to be even close to being so efficent. The economic class divide could rise again as transport becomes less available. Poor countries will go back to being shitter than now.
Basically, everything will just get slower and less available, but there is no way the world will absolutely collapse, since we have so much useful knowledge already.

Or you know, they might just invent some new renewable shit that's going to fully replace oil.

>>9425771
>tfw pic related will finally become true

>>9425287
People will accept nuclear as an option when it becomes the only option. Well, non retards at least, we do have people that dont vaccinate their kids still.

>>9425263
F I S S I O N
I
S
S
I
O
N

>>9425296
whatever comes next! the same thing happened to whale oil.

>>9425263
We're fine

>>9426516
That's even more meme-tier than those flying wind turbines.

>>9426555
They work anywhere in the world in any weather on the simple principle that heat rises and the fact that the atmosphere is warmer closer to the ground than at altitude. They have been built and proven to be a success.

What is your complaint?
https://architecture.mit.edu/sites/architecture.mit.edu/files/attachments/lecture/SolarUpdraftTower_Project.pdf

>>9425450
>Abiotic oil is red pill.
Exactly. Quackery.

>>9425765
Ah, well if "they" said something, all oil must be abiotic. You win.

Retard.

>>9425263
>assuming current levels of consumption
...but the rate-of-consumption has been increasing,
and is expected to continue to increase.

>>9425263
Couldn’t we just start drilling in Antarctica? I mean if it’s a matter of life and death for nations, wouldn’t they stop giving to shits about treaties and do whatever to survive?

its likely free energy has already been discovered but our wealthy overlords need to keep their wheel turning on the backs of the masses.... free energy........ makes no economical sense

>>9426617
>drilling in Antarctica
>through two miles of ice
uh, no

>>9426579
eyeballing the graph, it looks like an increase of 8.0Mbpd between Q1 2013 and Q1 2018
so the rate of increase is 8.0/5 = 1.6Mbpd per year, and at this rate, consumption will double in 60 years.

>>9426635
>Look at me! Crazy tinfoil meme so funny XD!
Take your (you)

>>9426617

The renewable energy equivalent of the Space Race is more likely than a mass exodus to Antarctica for oil. This isn't the middle East or Africa this would not be a cake walk. The proof lies in the fact that Alaska, Canada and even fucking Russia still have large segments of their territories just plain wilderness. No country is really ready to take on Antarctica.

Working prototype fusion reactor by 2100, commercial reactors by 2130.

>>9426654
>tinfoil
foil is aluminum now, Grandpa

>>9425311
>Daily reminder if we were socialist/communist we would have nuclear, wind, solar and this wouldnt be a problem
If you are socialist/communist, you wouldn't have enough wealth to build enough to meet power demands.
>>9425337
>socialism will magically remove operating costs

>>9426671
>50 years until commercial fusion
You've been saying the same thing for the last 70 years

>>9426646
>>9426579
Yes the consumption is increasing, but then again - new reserves are being uncovered all the time.
That's why most predictions are based on
>current demand levels
>currently known reserves

>>9426671
proof of concept fusion reactor 2019, maaaybe 2020. Commercial fusion reactors with associated power plant as early as 2025, but certainly by 2030. Progress is currently hidden and being funded by the DoD.
Inertial electrostatic confinement model. It has a small but relevant possibility to even enable aneutronic fusion.

If you're familiar with the latest tech, there's absolutely no reason to be handing out grossly uninformed timescales calling for vague decades or ridiculous centuries of work.

>>9427993
>Progress is currently hidden

which is a proof that it isn't working

>>9425973
>>9425370
>>9425450
i want /pol/tards to remove their tinfoil hat and do a bit of research for once

>>9427588
>Yes the consumption is increasing, but then again - new reserves are being uncovered all the time.
new oil discoveries are no longer enough to replace what we consume

>>9427588
>>9429518
and this is unlikely to change with consumption growing and discoveries long past their peak

>>9426451

>>9429585
>self reporting side effects

>>9425760
So vast amounts of the element carbon, which is an almost excusively organic element, happened to exist under the surface?

>>9425263
>Will all of the 8 billion people survive past the era of the fossil? Or will the ever-inflating population bubble finally burst?
Most non retarded people will survive, the soyim will die

>>9425771
>loss-less wireless energy transfer

>>9425263
>nuclear fission
>nuclear fusion
>space-bourne solar panels that beam energy down to earth or something
if none of those work, we can always harvest hyderocarbons from titan

>>9425263
None of that matters cause we'll all be dead from climate change induced famine