/sci/ - Science & Math

Hi what is this thread about

>>9358378
Monty Hall problem is a classic probabilistic paradox.

OP could you please elaborate why and provide a caption to your image?
>it does not disprove that switching in the Monty-Hall problem reduces chances of winning the car

>>9358372
>Monty Hall problem is a lie
>pic correctly models the Monty Hall problem, with the 2/3rds chance of getting the car by switching
really deflowers my almonds

>>9358372
>Being this illiterate
It literally says 1/6 chance dipshit

>>9358386
>paradox
No its not you silly man .

you change = 2/3 car

you stick = 2/3 goat

You only stand to lose by switching if you had already chosen the car, which you only have a 1/3 chance of doing. Meaning that you have a 1-1/3 chance of winning if you switch... or a 2/3 chance.

>>9358372
>tries to disprove Monty Hall
>literally posts a proof of Monty Hall

>>9358559
If you initially choose a goat and decide to switch you can still get the other goat

>>9358994
yes. then?

>>9358994
I mean, maybe. The goat is always revealed, but I guess if you really want a goat, and ask the host nicely, he'll let you switch to the goat anyways.

>>9358994
not true. he will always reveal another goat after you make your first pick

>>9358994
A goat is always revealed. If you pick a goat, the goat you didn't pick is revealed.
If you switch you win.
its that easy.
the above happens 2 outta 3 times, cause there are 2 goats outta 3 choice doors. One outta 3 times you'll have picked the car and switched to a goat.

Switching is a greater opportunity to win.

>>9358372
>Paul Erdős, one of the most prolific mathematicians in history, remained unconvinced until he was shown a computer simulation demonstrating the predicted result (Vazsonyi 1999).
hahaha

>>9358372
50/50

>>9360480
I did 100 trials on a simulator and got about 50-50 both ways.

>>9360480
I don't understand why so many people have a hard time believing switching would get you a win more often than staying. Is this some sort of ingrained expectation of equality screwing with people's intuitions or something?

>>9360480
>>9360522
https://www.wired.com/2014/11/monty-hall-erdos-limited-minds/
>Pigeons repeatedly exposed to the problem show that they rapidly learn always to switch, unlike humans (Herbranson and Schroeder, 2010).
Virgin conscious thinking BTFO by Chad animal instinct.

>>9360522
They don't imagine the 2/3rd chance and 1/3rd chance - they see 2 doors and think 50/50

https://www.openprocessing.org/sketch/480963

>>9360501
>you can count to 31 on one hand in finger binary
>you can count to 160 on two hands in finger binary
I feel as if I were cheated as a toddler.

>>9358994

if you pick a goat he has to reveal another goat, the only time you lose is if you pick the car, which is less likely to happen than picking a goat.

>>9360594
you can count to 992 on two hands in finger binary

>>9360616

11111 11111 = 1023

>>9360480

that's bertrand russel in your pic...

>>9360618
>you can count over a thousand on two hands in finger binary
>meanwhile we've only been taught to count to 10 cause ten fingers

>>9360616
You can count to 1023 with 10 bits, you guys are retarded.

>>9360623
Finger binary would work a lot better if you could move your ring finger independently. It doesn't take a genius to figure out why it hasn't caught on.

>>9360623
Don't be a brainlet, programmers use hex to represent binary because its annoying af to read and to work with.

>>9360623
Toddlers are taught it this way because we need mental representations of numbers to do maths at all.

>>9360638
to clearify, if you don't teach them to count like this first, they won't be able to do binary.

>>9360638

yeah but addition and multiplication in binary is way simpler.

>>9359038
I know right! What if I want the goat?!

I just whipped up a sim of this on Python. (I don't know how to write code here so I'll just use a screenshot). The output after 10,000 trials was
Swap win percentage: 66.73%
Stay win percentage: 33.27%
Which while not conclusive, does add credence to swapping being twice as likely to win you the car.

>>9360668
I ironed out some kinks in the code, and the result is the same.

>>9360623
u

>>9360532
Really nice way to put it.

>>9360623
>>9360618
>>9360616
>>9360594