[ 3 / biz / cgl / ck / diy / fa / ic / jp / lit / sci / vr / vt ] [ index / top / reports ] [ become a patron ] [ status ]
2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/sci/ - Science & Math

View post   
File: 63 KB, 281x144, e6andf6.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
8573817 No.8573817 [Reply] [Original]

Hey, /sci/ /v/ here my friend and I are arguing over the chances of a loot crate giving a specific skin in our game. There's a 1% drop rate for this skin in each crate. We know a third person that opened up 200 loot crates each with a 1% chance of getting this skin. He didn't get it.

Now i say there was only a statistical chance of 2 out of the 200 crates that would have contained the skin but my friend says 13%

i haven't done this kind of math since high school and can't remember how to figure any of it out

who's right?

>> No.8573845

You are both fucking losers for caring about vydia.

>> No.8573850

>>8573845
but who is the bigger loser for getting it wrong?

>> No.8573859

what are you asking?

the probability that you will find at least one?
the probability that you will find only one?

>> No.8573862

Daily reminder that loot crates in video games are loopholes in gambling laws. Do not buy them under any circumstance.

>> No.8573865
File: 22 KB, 733x363, probzerosuccess.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
8573865

>>8573817
>my friend says 13%
he's right

>> No.8573874

>>8573859
at least one

>> No.8573881

>>8573817
The expected value of skins is 2. That is, if someone offered you 200 crates OR 2 skins and you didn't care about anything else but the skin you would be just as happy with either option.

The probably of opening *exactly* one skin is given 200*.01*.99^199 is about 27%. That is if you repeat the "opening 200 boxes" experiment millions of times you'll open 1 skin in about 27% of your trials over all. If you need to place a bet on opening exactly one skin, you'd use this number to set odds.

The probability of *at least* 1 skin is given 1-.99^200 which is just under 87%. Your friend probably half assed this calculation to get 13%. This is the number you probably care about.

>> No.8573887

>>8573817
probability that a given box contains the loot: .01 = 1/100
probability that all boxes are empty: .99^200 ~ 13/100
probabilty that one box contains loot: 0.1*.99^199*200C1 ~ 27/100
probability that two boxes contain loot: ~27/100
probability that three boxes contain loot: ~18/100
and so on