/sci/ - Science & Math

I SWEAR TO GOD IF I SEE THAT FUCKING PICTURE ONE MORE TIME

Is Monty Hall just a game of luck?

I mean, there's 50% chance of winning a goat unless the person happen to know the right door, and guessing can only get you so far into the game.

>>5705333

You have three boxes, each with two compartments.

One has a gold coin in each compartment;
One has a silver coin in each compartment,
One has a gold coin in one compartment and a silver in the other.

You choose a box at random, open one compartment. You see a gold coin. What are the odds that the other coin is gold?

If I flip a coin three times and it's heads at least once, what's the probability of it being heads at least twice?

I might have fucked that up, someone fix it

>>5705362
What do you mean fix it? That could be correct depending on what you're trying to mean.

Anyway,
HHH xX
HHT xX
HTH xX
HTT x
THH xX
THT x
TTH x
TTT

x if it's heads at least once, X if it's heads at least twice. so 4/7

>>5705343

>>5705352
>is a game where you make a random choice a game of luck

I don't know anon what do you think

>>5705381
He's probably thinking he doesn't have to put much effort/ingenuity into his shitposts because people like you will respond

>>5705381
>implying true randomness exists

>>5705376
I think it was a well-known problem/debate, or if I said it wrong then similar to one.

I think it might actually be something like you flip a coin twice and its heads at least once, what's the probability of it being heads twice. And some people were saying 2/3 and others were saying 1/2. I still don't know if I have it right though

>>5705362
1/2

>>5705413
Anyway, you would take the same approach I did in answering your original question. It's only a "well-known problem/date" because of idiots and trolls.

>>5705357
Actually the same question as >>5705362. The answer is 50% or 1/2

>>5705381
>replying to trolls

>>5705444
I remembered reading it in a textbook, here it is.

>>5705443
Interesting, so does the "problem" just arise out of wording?

>Probability Thread

>>5705343
swearing to an unexisting being...

>>5705449
Of course, as long as the coin is unbiased.

Does this picture depict the difference between frequentists and bayesians correctly? The POV of the frequentist seems wrongfully depicted to me, but my knowledge on statistics is still fairly limited.

>>5705486
I read about Bayesians in a soft book (The Signal and the Noise), pretty much it seemed like they base current probabilities based off of current observations and previous experiences?

>>5705468
Huh, what has Erdos contributed to probability?

>>5705496
The Probabilistic Method, which is used in other areas of Maths and Comp sci.

>>5705486
Nope, yeah, that's right
>source: Eliezer Yudkowsky

>>5705454
>Interesting, so does the "problem" just arise out of wording?
Yessirree

You play a game flipping a fair coin. You may stop after any trial, at which point you are paid in dollars the percentage of heads flipped. So if on the first trial you flip a head, you should stop and earn $100 because you have 100% heads. If you flip a tail then a head, you could either stop and earn $50, or continue on, hoping the ratio will exceed 1/2.

Is it better to continue or stop after you have flipped 5 heads in 8 trials: accept $62.50 or hope for more?

>>5705466
us atheists right guys XD

>>5706641
This seems like a tough one. My guess is that it's better to take the $62.50. I'll be impressed if anyone comes up with a rigorous answer.

>>5705466
You have a proof of nonexistence? Would love to see it. Thanks.

>>5706649
I'd say you're right.

>>5706706
I'd say he's wrong. Try to simulate the game and see what happens.

>>5706712
Writing a simulation wouldn't be easy, because the outcomes would depend on the choice the player makes after each toss. Determining the correct choice at each step isn't any easier than answering the original problem directly.

>>5706644
wow nice dubz anon! xDDD