/sci/ - Science & Math

There's a 10% chance in both, so I'd say it's yes.

>>5617442

you can't get 10 successive failures out of 10 in in 10 if you remove your draw while it's quite probable in 100, so no.

Yes, because they're both 50%; it happens or it doesn't.

Your question is ambiguous, and will therefore get 90 replies of idiots arguing over what you mean.

>>5617480

Ok, let's say you are in a lottery over a goat.

You can either pick one draw with a 1 in 10 chance or 10 draws with a 1 in 100 chance. Which would generally be better and why?

>>5617492
10/100
because even if you don't win, you at least felt the rush of winning a goat to fuck 10 times instead of 1.

>>5617492
>10 draws with a 1 in 100 chance

Still ambiguous.

If there is 1 winning ticket in a pile of 100, and you pick 10 of them, that's the same as 1 in 10.

If your picks are totally independent (like rolling a 100 sided die 10 times), then you are less likely to win than 1 in 10.

>>5617492
makes no difference.
equal probability.

>>5617512
why would he be less likely to win? 1 in 100 is of course 10 times less likely to win but he still would be throwing the dice 10 times.

>>5617530
Probabability of winning with 1 draw = 0.1

Probability of winning with 10 draws = 0.01 + 0.99*0.01 + 0.99*0.99*0.01 + ... + 0.99^9 * 0.01 = 0.09561... < 0.1.

Probability doesn't give a fuck about your intuition.

>>5617442
I don't see any reason why not, wait a second..are you making us do your homework?

>>5617543
Nope, psychology (LMAO PSYCHOLOGY) student here, we ain't dicking around with probabilities. The question just popped into my head.

>>5617547

why not actually? carl young used probability and statistics extensively

>>5617530
10 picks with 1% probability =/= 10% probability
if that was true you could win lottery easily
each pick is always 1% if you mix all the tickets again after each pick

>>5617547
ok cholo
it is the same, because you're still rolling

look at these numberfags

>>5617442
no

Statistics seems like the kind of math that would be useful to a psych major.How would you read or do research without it?

>>5617595
if do then do

>>5617538
Now apply your genius theory to the probability of winning with 100 draws.

>>5617595
statistics yeah, but we didn't touch probability, to be honest

>>5617608
Huh? 100 draws with a chance of 0.001 comes out to about 0.0952. What's the problem?

>>5617512
it's the same
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypergeometric_distribution

>>5617613
This is a problem. It's like trying to make a theory of gravity without understanding what motion is. If you don't understand basic probability, you don't understand statistics. And if you don't understand statistics, you can't do research.

>>5617859
Youre a very good troll or one really retarded individual