/sci/ - Science & Math

>>4894849
Let's say there are 15 questions with 4 choices each. Let's also say there are 3 lifelines: call-a-friend, 50-50, and ask-the-audience.

For each of the 15 questions, there is only 1 correct answer, and 3 incorrect answers, so immediately your chances are 1/3 = 33.34%. You can use each lifeline once. Using phone-a-friend, let's say gives you a 95% chance the person you call is correct. So 1 question is 95%. Similarly, we can say ask-the-audience gives you a 95% chance. Finally, 50-50 will remove 2 wrong answers, so you have 1 right answer and 1 wrong answer, so you basically know the answer. To recap:

Question 1: 33.34%
Question 2: 33.34%
Question 3: 33.34%
Question 4: 95% <--- ask-the-audience
Question 5: 33.34%
Question 6: 33.34%
Question 7: 33.34%
Question 8: 33.34%
Question 9: 95% <--- phone-a-friend
Question 10: 33.34%
Question 11: 33.34%
Question 12: 33.34%
Question 13: 33.34%
Question 14: 33.34%
Question 15: 100% <--- 50-50
Total: 690.08%
Divided by 15 questions = 46.00%
So basically, it's more a less a game of chance, but more than half the people on the show will lose, so it's not very fair. That show is making tons of money off of people.

>>4894884
Are you fucking retarded? Firstly the 'standard' chance is 25%, 1/(3+1), not 1/3, secondly, 50/50 leads to 50% chance. Idiot.

>>4894906
Please take a probability course. Your post is embarrassing.

>>4894906

Doctor? I think I'm being meta-trolled.

Don't bump this shit.

>>4894908
>>4894911
So you argue that in a '4 draw 1' event, the probability of drawing any of the 4 is 1/3? So then the probability of drawing 'something' is (1/3 + 1/3 + 1/3 + 1/3) = 4/3.

I don't think so.

>>4894922
0/10, must be a troll. Nobody is that ignorant.

>>4894927
You want to explain how a 1 in 4 chance of getting the answer correct = 1/3, then?

If you were purely guessing the answers, life-lines avoided the chance of 15 correct would be 0.25^15 = 0.00000000093

Still, better chance than the lottery!

>>4894943

just stop, you're embarrassing all of us

if you want to say stupid shit and sound smart go to any other board

>>4894950
No, seriously, explain it. Otherwise, you're just making stuff up.

>33.34%
Are you guys seriously trying to say that the joke answer is always so obvious that could never be chosen, even if the person playing has no knowledge about the question or things related to the question?

>>4894951

why would we explain something that you can find in a high school math textbook from '84

just get out of here

>>4894959
No. Explain it to me. You're a liar.
Either explain it or go find a link that can.

>>4894959
Hey guys, 1*1=2. Don't believe me? Well then, you shouls just get the fuck out of here and read a book you ignorant, retarded, negro! :3

>>4894977

Still waiting for the explanation. If you have 4 answers, and you randomly pick one each time, you will pick one answer correctly and three incorrectly, making your chances 1 correct answer for 4 total answers. Explain how this isn't 1/4.

>>4894977
>>4894977
>>4894999
>>4894999
>>4894999
>>4894999

>>4894999
>>4894999
>>4894999
>>4894999
>>4894999
>>4894999
>>4894977
>>4894977
>>4894977
>>4894977

>>4894959

Yes, that is what they are doing.

Still waiting for one of you dumbasses to answer

>>4895014
Nobody is going to waste their time. Please look in an arithmetic book yourself.

>>4895019
No, it's only because you can't explain it because you aren't smart enough
You need to show you understand it enough, otherwise you're just another moron
cmon faggot

Really? Nobody?
Wow, I guess you're all just a bunch of idiots then, the board is called science but there's no scientists here

>This thread

I honestly have no idea who is trolling whom at this point

>>4894965
>>4894951
>>4894943
>>4894906


>I mean, there's 33.34% chance of being right unless the person happen to know the answer

Jesus christ dude. You don't need a math lesson, you need a fucking reading lesson.

this was never not a troll thread

>>4895227
Yes it was

>>4895239
full /b/ mode

1 right answer out of 3 wrong answers

1/3

>>4895283
So then how is it that if you use the 50/50, you have a 100% chance of getting the answer correct. That's what he said.

>>4895289

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

>>4895299
Thats not even close to the same thing

6/10, responded

probability is an illusion.
causality wins.

How can if you don't know the answer quessing result in 33.34% probability of getting the right answer?
If you don't know the answer, it is 25% because you quess between 4 answers while only one is true.

>>4895299
That's a completely irrelevant problem. He is saying that, if you have 4 choices and you eliminate two of them as possibilities, then if you randomly guess between the two remaining you will have a 100% chance of getting it correct. That is what he said.

>>4895414
>if you randomly guess between the two remaining you will have a 100% chance of getting it correct.

No, he didn't say anything about randomly guessing; he implied strongly that if there are only two choices, the player could basically assume he knew the correct one.
That was where the mistake was.
Having only two choices doesn't mean one is obviously wrong, or that you are likely to know enough to get it right even in unfamiliar topics.

The only approach is to assume it is still 50/50 and hope that some intelligence and knowledge can inform your answer to help you (unquantifiable).
People who assume tests are easy (before even knowing the topic!) are the ones who do badly with them.

Well you either win the million or you don't, so really it's a 50/50 wash anyway

(15*4)-3-3-2 (minus all 3 lifelines) possible answers and to get them all correct you need to pick 15 correct ones. 15/((15*4)-3-3-2)

~0.288461538

/thread

>>4895429
>Well you either win the million or you don't, so really it's a 50/50 wash anyway

I can't decide if this guy is actually being fairly clever with his presentation, or still hasn't got a clue.

win/don't means there are two possible endings: it never has to mean they are equal chances. (It's mostly idiots or people who always fail to be clever that make this equivocation).
a 'wash' is when neither side can win.
50/50 is FANTASTIC odds for winning *any* prize.