/sci/ - Science & Math

>>4000786
>ISHYGDDT
I know why you seriously hope we don't do this. You want all the goats to yourself, you goat-fucking pervert.

Assuming the game show host knows which door has the goat (and if he's opening a loser door, of course he knows which door has the goodies) then it does give you a statistical advantage. Deal with it.

Explain this goatshit to me.

>>4000791
Why the fuck are you even replying?

>>4000792
Some batshit theory, here's the premise.

You have 3 doors, there is a goat behind 2 of them, and a new car behind the other.

You select door '1'. The host opens up door '3' and shows there is a goat behind it. Then he offers you the chance to switch to door '2' or stay with door '1'.

Aspie morons believe that switching doors will give you a 67.77777777% chance of winning as opposed to 33.33333333% chance if you stick with your original choice.

if there are 100 doors instead, and there's 1 goat. u pick a door, and the host then eliminates 98 doors and tell u the goat is behind one of the doors, do u have a statistical advantage?

same thing.

>>4000802
Holy shit I didn't believe this thing until I thought up this scenario as well.
Brofist for being me.

>pic related my face when you said exactly what was in my mind

>>4000800
I'm sorry you don't understand math.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

You probably also think .999... doesn't equal 1.

When you first pick a door, you have a 1/3 chance of picking the door with the prize. After the host gets rid of one of the "goat" doors, the host makes it so you can either stick with your first pick, which is probably wrong, or switch to the door that's left, which is probably correct. It's probably correct because if the odds of you picking WRONG on your first guess were 2/3, so the odds of the prize being behind the door that you can switch too is also 2/3. Just look at it this way- If you keep your first choice, then you have a 1/3 of ending up with the prize. If you switch, these are the possible outcomes:

pick goat door -> last goat revealed -> switch to prize
pick goat door -> last goat revealed -> switch to prize
pick prize door -> one goat revealed -> switch to goat

you have 2 doors, and there's only one goat left. it's 50/50.

>>4000847
I'm sorry you're an aspie. You don't know what lies behind any of the doors, so essentially you have a 50% chance of being correct either way.

>>4000854
Please go away troll.

>>4000851
This.
It's not 66.6whateverthefuck percent, it's a flat 1/2. 50%

>>4000854
Bayes' theorem. Use it.

>>4000859
Reality, live in it.

>>4000857
>>4000851
If the odds of picking the right door on the first try is one in three, how can your only other option be a 50/50 chance? Just because there's two doors left doesn't mean that they have equal odds.

>>4000863
>>4000851
>>4000857
>HURRP DURRP IM EITHER GOING TO DIE OR LIVE TOMORROW SO THERE IS A 50% CHANCE IM GOING TO DIE TOMORROW, XD!!!1

Fuck off, retards.

>>4000800
Some batshit theory, here's the premise.

You have 100 doors, there is a goat behind 99 of them, and a new car behind the other.

You select door '1'. The host opens up door '2' to '98' and shows there is a goat behind all of them. Then he offers you the chance to switch to door '99' or stay with door '1'.


take a pick.

What I dont get is shit like if a cunt tosses 9 heads in a row why is the tenth toss not more likely to be a tail. I see how they are exclusive events but then why do you get suspicious if i toss 10000 heads in a row? I could understand if an infinite amount of coin tosses could occur but the universe is going to end so there is only going to be a finite amount of coin tosses ever.

>>4000867
> Just because there's two doors left doesn't mean that they have equal odds.

> two doors the only choices

> unequal chances

> typing this shit with a straight face

There are 3 possible combinations, 2 of them gives you a car, 66.6%. It's that simple, you fucks.

>>4000867
Let's try and simplify this for you. You have a 3 sided dice. You need to roll a one. A magician comes along and turns it into a 2 sided dice. What are your odds for rolling a one?

>>4000874

I stay with door 1. Do I get the prize?

>>4000847
it doesn't
lrn2 limits

Quick and dirty java solution

http://pastebin.com/jL3tWw4Q

>>4000882
1 in 100 times you will.

>>4000879
Do you actually believe that troll shit?

>>4000884
>hurr I've taken an intro calculus class, im so smrt
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/0.999......
It DOES actually exactly equal 1, learn to calculus.

>>4000889
oh wow
now its about .999 bullshit

ITT: People with negative IQ

>>4000891
I assume you're talking about those that believe in the bullshit theory.

>>4000889
eh you're right

math's been too long :s

For people having trouble understanding, imagine a similar scenario with 1,000 doors. You choose one door, the host closes 998 doors and offers you a second chance to choose. What's the chance that you picked the correct door the first time? 1/1000. The chance the other door is correct is 999/1000.

>>4000905

>>4000909
reported

>>4000909
I seriously hope you're just trolling now and not just fucking retarded

>>4000911
I've already tried reporting him. Mod gave me a warning for reporting for stupid shit. Apparently blatant trolling doesn't deserve mod attention.

>>4000909
What are you having trouble understanding

>>4000917
FFS You are the reason m00t wants to close this board down. Why can't you just ignore it?

>>4000918
This, in no way at all applies to the 1/3 scenario.

>>4000921
I've heard this rumor going around. Do you have any evidence? How do you know this?

Also, you don't seem to understand how scientists and people who care actually operate.

>>4000923
It's EXACTLY the fucking same. What is wrong with you?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Bayes.27_theorem

ITT: Science fans with no mathematical background arguing about shit that has a formal proof behind it.

>>4000923
The only thing changed was the number of doors in the scenario, all other conditions remain constant. It's to illustrate the underlying principle more severely than the actual problem, which is intentionally hard to figure out at first.

>>4000923
It's a hyperbola designed to point it out, as you seem to have trouble understanding this shit.

Imagine you have a billion doors. Chances that you picked a car on your first try are 1:10^9. Now the nigga reveals goats in all doors but the one you picked and another one. Should you switch?

>>4000880
>>4000877

Okay, I'm going to try to explain this one more time. When you pick a door the first time, there is a one in three chance of choosing correctly. Right? And then it doesn't matter what doors the host does or doesn't open. The odds of you having the door with the prize is ALWAYS going to be 1/3, until the exact location of the prize is known. By reducing the number of doors left, that means that the odds of any remaining doors WILL increase, because, since the host only opens the "goat" doors, whatever door happens to be left has a higher chance of being the one with the prize.

If you still believe me, try it yourself. Pretend you're the host, and use a random number generator to choose what door to keep. Then record how many times he'd win if he did or didn't switch doors.

>>4000945
I actually started to believe this troll shit so I went ahead and did it. I did this 20 times on 5 seperate occasions. Switching gave me 75%,65%,30%,40% and 60%. Seems like 50/50 to me.

>>4000962
Please learn to normal approximation of binomial distribution, confidence intervals, and so forth.

>>4000962
Make your sample size something with four digits.

Is the host able to eliminate the door you chose? I nthink thats really the heart of the problem. If there is a goat behind your door, and 98 others, and he doesn't have the ability to eliminate your door you are bending the odds of elimination.

If he can eliminate all doors, including your own, then your door and the other remaining door are even odds.

>>4000988
He can't.

>>4000990
Then what is the problem? obviously the odds have changed if you interefered by making certain options unavailable.

If i put a piece of tape of the 6 on a die, so that i have to re-roll it, the use that die to roll out 4 incorrect numbers, guess what? now every time 6 was landed on to get eliminated it was passed over. now 6 has less of a chance of being correct than whatever number was left over.