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/sci/ - Science & Math


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File: 52 KB, 575x456, h_future_marsbase_02.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
[ERROR] No.3692682 [Reply] [Original]

What is your opinion on the chances of SpaceX delivering on it's promise for a Mars mission by 2020? Elon Musk claims that it'll be done by then, but also offers a worst-case of 2025-2030. What about this timeline?

Share your thoughts.

>> No.3692708

>>3692682
he didn't promise, he said is was possible.
Personally I think mars is a dead end and will be the Haiti/Africa of the solar system.

>> No.3692743

>>3692708
Naw dude, Earth will be like the Africa of the solar system, mars will be like the Americas

>> No.3692770

>>3692743
nope, Mars is a useless hole, asteroids then ort cloud are the Americas.

>> No.3692773

From http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7753-cosmic-rays-may-prevent-longhaul-space-travel.html:

"Others suggest more radical solutions might be needed. "Radiation exposure is certainly one of the major problems facing future interplanetary space travellers," says Murdoch Baxter, founding editor of the Journal of Environmental Radioactivity. "Unless we can develop instantaneous time and space transfer technologies like Dr Who's TARDIS.""

No trip to Mars for you.

>> No.3692781

>>3692770

...So you're saying we can more easily survive on asteroid and in the oort clouds than on Mars?

Please explain.

>> No.3692796

>>3692773

That's already taken care of in the very habitat design shown in the picture. The water tank has a hollow core that people can crowd inside of to wait out solar flares. Water is among the most effective anti-radiation shielding materials available and it doubles as their recycled drinking/bathing water supply.

I don't doubt that there are good arguments to the effect that sending men to Mars will be difficult, but I would rather hear arguments that have not already been addressed and negated by design features.

>> No.3692805

Well i guess more like 2040. Chinese of course.

>> No.3692824

>>3692796

That doesn't stop cosmic radiation, which is too energetic to be stopped by solar flare shielding.

>> No.3692827
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>>3692781
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_habitat
go do some reading before bitching pls.

>> No.3692833
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>>3692805
>implying china will exist as a nation in 2040

>> No.3692859

>>3692827

The toroidal colony you've posted an image of is impossible to build with existing rockets. All of the 'Island" habitats designed back then assumed access to Orion vessels for lifting enormous amounts of materials into orbit. It would take centuries and untold quadrillions of dollars using chemical rockets.

Meanwhile, putting a habitat on Mars is entirely feasible with existing rockets and is likely to be done in the near future.

>> No.3692866

>>3692773

Radiation was invented by the man to keep us down.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-human-body-might-adapt-to-radiation-exposure-2011-8

Suck on that ass tard!

>> No.3692873

>>3692859
>didn't read
you just went 110% retard bro.

>> No.3692908
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>>3692866

>the-human-body-might-adapt-to-radiation-exposure

If only you studied any biology, you would understand what that means. You do not and therefore, you will not.

>> No.3692950
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>>3692805

China will collapse before the 2040s, they stopped the last uprising with firepower. There's no way in hell they would be able to get away with it again

>> No.3692973

>>3692950
china knows this. they're making concessions all the time, steadily becoming more liberal, socially and economically.

>> No.3692976

>>3692833
proove im wrong.

>>3692950
as long as china has a fast growing economy, i dont know why there should be an uprising.

>> No.3693011

>>3692976
China is only holding together because people think they can work to save up for their futures, and China has a wad of toxic real estate currently listed as an asset that when the bubble pops will wipe out most savings and everything will come completely unglued.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_property_bubble
and don’t kid yourself, the Chinese banks are epically more corrupt than the worst us banks.

>> No.3693087

>>3692976
>>3692950
>>3693011
Not to mention China will be nothing but old people 40 years from now. They had the largest baby boom in history followed by a successful effort to reduce the average family to one child.

>> No.3693116

>to one child

one boy, girl gets killed
(or rescued, Diamond Age)

>> No.3693134

>>3692950

Here's some "uprisings" that took place this year alone: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_disturbances_in_the_People's_Republic_of_China_(2011)

Has China collapsed? No.

>> No.3693143

>>3693087
very good point, even assuming improved domestic stability and improvements in medicine, china will be in 2040 where Japan is now if not worse.
>>3693116
Here is another instability source, there maybe as much as a million young men who will be unable to ever have a wife, that’s a massive risk for domestic revolution.
>>3693134
>hurrrr! waz riot, steel heer, mus no be problem!!1duurrr

>> No.3693157

>>3693143

>Claim the next riot will take down China
>The next riot did not take down China

>> No.3693161

>>3693134

None of them ere on the scale of the Tiananmen Square protests.

>> No.3693170
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>>3693157
no one said that you dumbfuck.

>> No.3693200
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>>3692833

>China
>Stop existing

>> No.3693201

>>3693170
not who you're talking to. just wanted to make sure you knew: it's painfully obvious that you're a samefag failbailer.

>> No.3693207

>>3693201
>>3693170
samefag samefaging

>> No.3693215

>>3692859
1. Chemical rockets and nuclear pulse propulsion are not the only lift methods in existence.
2. Earth is not the only source of construction materials.

>> No.3693219
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Can we get back too the Mars shot?

>> No.3693226

>>3693215
planetfag left to jackoff to living in a clammy wet tube on the sea floor

>> No.3693253

>>3693219

The Falcon XX is fucking massive

>> No.3693262

>>3693219
with the inertia for privet development in launchers and habitats and a step price decline over the next 10-15 years I can see a semi private collaborative mission manned science mission launched in ~2025 using a ship assembled in earth orbit. I don’t see any serious colonization movement anytime soon due the complete absence of economic justification.

>> No.3693280

>>3692770
>nope, Mars is a useless hole, asteroids then ort cloud are the Americas.

Nay. IMO, Mars will likely be the manufacturing/refining base for much of the processed asteroid mass due to lower gravity, relative habitability, and proximity. It may very well end up being the Australia of the Solar System.

>> No.3693286

>>3692682
doesn't it take 3 years just to get to mars?

>> No.3693297

>>3693286
It can be done in a half to two-thirds of a year, less if you have enough fuel to take a direct route, more if you launch at an inopportune time.

>> No.3693299

>>3693286

No.. what the fuck have you been reading? It takes 6 months, if we were actually trying to get there as fast as possible we could do it in a couple of weeks

>> No.3693304

>>3693297
that sounds like alot of fuel, is that even plausible?

>> No.3693312

>>3693304
It's very expensive, but doable.

>> No.3693314

>>3693280
>drop into hole where energy in more expensive and then push it back out of hole for shipping
you reeeeaaally need to stop using bad scifi as a template for reality.
Energy from simple focusing mirrors is cheep and consistent in open space, doable with 70’s era tech.
Mars has less energy, due the weather and planet blocking most of the sunlight.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_manufacturing

>> No.3693320

>>3693304

With conventional chemical rockets, No it isn't

>> No.3693322

economy is going crash again soon so lets say 2060

>> No.3693324

>>3693312
So it's not plausible.

>glad we got a bunch of pie eyed optimists in here, that'll certainly convince people this is a cause worth fighting for.

/thread

>> No.3693327

>>3693324
Why would you take the direct route to Mars instead of using a more-efficient transfer orbit?

>> No.3693343

>>3693327

Probably because humans don't want to spend 6 months flying through space

>> No.3693346

>>3693320
sounds like you're not planning to land, or return.

Good luck with that.

>> No.3693349

>>3693327
i'm not the one who said it would take 3 months.

>> No.3693352

>>3693343
Humans already spend six months and longer flying through space.

>> No.3693354

>>3693352

Yes, but untrained civilians wanting to work and live on Mars don't

>> No.3693355

>>3693354
ok, so now we're sending civilians.

This thread has gone from zero to unsubstantiated quicker than any of you put cheetos into your mouth.

>> No.3693356

>>3693352
inside the earth's magnetic protection.
it is being outside that that is the issue.

>> No.3693366

>>3693354
There's no reason to send untrained civilians to Mars for the foreseeable future. Even if there was, if they wanted to go and had the means to secure transportation, I think the transit time would be a small matter compared to being on Mars itself.

>> No.3693374

>>3693356
How that issue is dealt with depends on a lot of things, like how much money you want to spend. Either you make the ship go faster or you increase its shielding. I don't know which of these approaches will prove to be more practical, but, then again, we haven't sent any humans to Mars yet.

>> No.3693375

>>3693314
I'm thinking about the economics of fuel and shipping costs, what are you thinking about? It seems alot easier for the harvested resources to wait for Mars to get within range and then attach on to it's gravity well and spend less fuel/resources getting to a manufacturing/refining center than flying back to Earth. Perhaps Mars will invest in orbital production centers instead due to costs of transferring off-world, but it still seems to me that the best way to collect the resources would be waiting for Mars to get within range than having to send a ship back and forth between Earth. A series of Mars-Earth ships/cyclers/what-have-you would seem the better option.

>> No.3693388

>>3693354
>Yes, but untrained civilians wanting to work and live on Mars don't

I'll take a year or two off to go to FUCKING MARS.

>> No.3693406

>>3693375
>I'm thinking about the economics of fuel and shipping costs
no, you aren't, you are going to burn way more energy sending stuff to mars rather than refining on site and shipping directly to market, there is no reason to send anything to mars.
> attach on to it's gravity well
oh wow... you have no idea what you are talking about do you.
> cyclers
Don’t save anything in this case, earth aerobraking works from the asteroids too.

Mostly you just have a gravity and excessive complexity fetish.

>> No.3693408

>>3693116
Mah Nigga.

Also.. For shielding I love the idea of the Geometer's Starship in Anathem.

Find a local asteroid.. say a Trojan or whatnot.. Drag it into low earth orbit, commence to pounding the fuck outta it. You have a large pile of boulders to move your habitat into the center off.

Course... it would never happen.
But using orbiting materials is an interesting idea.

>> No.3693583
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Good night yallz

>> No.3693618

>>3693583

They actually plan to make the Falcon XX Heavy

>> No.3693651

>>3693583

Whats the other motor on the Falcon 9? is that the Raptor?

>> No.3693653
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[ERROR]

Fix'd

>> No.3694152

What's the point of trying to colonize Mars in the near future anyway? There's no way the colony will be self-sustaining, and as far as I know there aren't many resources there that are valuable enough to overcome the overhead of extraterrestrial mining and interplanetary shipping.

>> No.3694227

>>3694152

Every journey starts with a first step.