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/sci/ - Science & Math


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3336538 No.3336538 [Reply] [Original]

Economics is a science!

So /sci/, in your opinion, what's the best performing appreciating asset you could get for US$1000 +/- about US$100 assuming you hold it for 5 years?

I would just sink it into a term deposit

>> No.3336547

over the last 5 years, silver has quadroupled

>> No.3336575

>>3336547
past success is no reliable indicator for future success.

A well diversified stock portfolio is still the best thing on a long-term basis. For just 5 years it might be too risky.
1000 is not enough for real estate.
Maybe commodities if you time it right you can profit off from the gold bust in approximately 2 years. Silver might be good for a few more years.

Hope you get some ideas OP.

>> No.3336591

>>3336575
>real estate

it may have fallen like a rock... but its nowhere near the bottom

market aint what it used to be

>> No.3336610

If economics was a science, economists would actually apply the scientific method and suggest ways to manage economy in a rational way. Economists just say the bullshit corporations wanna hear so they get hired and get money. Then they are paid to explain why their predictions were wrong.

>> No.3336612

Gold is a good bet.

>> No.3336623

>>3336612
Silver will soon be rarer than gold, in available investment metal.

Gold is safer, but silver has a much higher potential return for 5 years.

>> No.3336633

deposit all your money in a sperm bank

>> No.3336650

>>3336547
>>3336612
>>3336623
>gold, silver

Both have grown in trade value greatly over the last few years, for no particularly good reason other than many people thinking it will, creating an unsustainable self-fulfilling prophecy, otherwise known as a bubble.

What part of "buy low, sell high" is so hard to understand?

>> No.3336655

>>3336547
>over the last 5 years, silver has quadroupled

Sounds like a great time to sell silver, then.

>> No.3336721

>>3336650
Inflation

>> No.3336732

>>3336650
Protip: people can print money faster than they can mine gold, that means gold goes up. Thats not a bubble thats supply and demand.
http://goldprice.org/30-year-gold-price-history.html

>> No.3336741

>>3336721
>>3336732
>Inflation

lolno. FEAR of inflation is a contributing factor, but that's not the same thing. Prices of gold and silver have been rising much, much faster than inflation.

>> No.3336755

Find a triple X ETF that you can buy into for a grand. And just hold it. There are half a dozen good ones to choose from.

>> No.3336764

If you don't know shit about shit; buy a spread of large well-established stocks that operate in a wide array of markets to spread the risk. If you do know shit about shit, never trust anyone but yourself.

>> No.3336795
File: 11 KB, 590x249, wolframalpha-20110705085256557.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
3336795

Precious metals are a fairly safe bet. See gold in pic. It has dipped and stalled a few times, but overall there isn't really a point in the last 100 years that you would have regretted buying gold, really.

Term deposits are the worst choice you can make, OP. They will barely keep up with inflation, plus you can't touch the money for a year or more.

>> No.3336815

>>3336795
Today's consensus that gold prices have a golden future reminds me of the talk about real estate a few years ago...

I consider gold to have the same kind of value as printed money - it's worth something because people think it's worth something. Sure there are industrial applications of gold, but if one buys it for this reason one is paying way to much.

>> No.3336817

>>3336795

If you make that chart for 2011 dollars (i.e., accounting for inflation), you'll see that you would certainly have regretted buying gold several times.

>> No.3336827
File: 27 KB, 635x477, economics.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
3336827

>>3336538

Economics is not a science and never will be!

>> No.3336837

>>3336827

that was a great show. wish there were more episodes.

>> No.3336843

>>3336815
Unlike gold, money can be printed at the whim of governments. The government's interest is not necessarily aligned with yours. For this reason alone, gold is an entirely different, superior class of asset.

>>3336817
There was a peak in 1970, pretty much. Besides that, the worst that can happen is you'd break even for a couple of years.

Also, I'm not sure of adjusting gold price for inflation is a meaningful thing to do in the first place.

>> No.3336845
File: 37 KB, 1110x308, excd-economist.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
3336845

>>3336827

>> No.3336882

>>3336795
THAT IS FUCKING BULLSHIT, ALL YOU GOLD INVESTORS WILL BURN IN HELL

>> No.3336910

>>3336843
I do admit that currency and gold CAN be quite different assets but what I'm saying is that both practically lack application in production. Gold does have application but compared to other assets that do, it is very expensive because people hoard it because it's shiny and considered valuable. I for one do not think that gold will be seen as anything else than something valuable in the near future, but I also do not believe in gold as this doomsday-safe asset that will just skyrocket in price forever. They say that when the barber and taxi driver start talking about stocks, it's time to sell because the bubble is about to burst, and it is my personal belief that all the wrong people are talking about gold these days.

>> No.3336947

>>3336910
I wasn't trying to ignore what you said. However, I think you will agree that gold is safer than or equivalent to the dollar or another currency in any event, due to the nature of it.

Of course, no asset is perfect. But we are not preparing for a doomsday scenario. I believe OPs context was something like, "I wanna invest my money in something for the next 5-10 years, what should it be". There are stocks and assets that are better than gold, if you know what you're doing, but with those it is notoriously difficult to know what you're doing.

It's really hard to fuck up gold, you just buy it and let it sit, make a nice profit too. Sure, it's not perfect, but if you're clueless just buy precious metals and check on them every few weeks to make sure they're not crashing, and you're good.

>OP pic
Btw, who else is surprised at how well MtGox (who are apparently 90% of the BTC economy) handled the situation and the lack of serious decline (sure, 20 to 15 is bad but everyone was saying it will be cents) in BTC prices? What do you think is the meaning of the low volatility?

>> No.3336967

invest in drugs.
ALWAYS invest in drugs.
Jesus christ, how can people not know this shit yet?

>> No.3336977

>>3336845
where's historians?
or, philosophy?

>> No.3336989

>>3336845
Mathematics is not a pure science. It's a formal science, a language, a logic, a way of doing things.

>> No.3336999

>>3336910
If you can't appreciate the value of gold's inert properties than the rest of your opinions mean very little. History speaks louder than your philosophies about trends.

>> No.3337003

The Australian dollar :D

>> No.3337006

>>3336947
For the OP I would still recommend stocks. I don't know about american stock markets but there's a bank in my country that offers a fund without any fees that represent the index of our local stock exchange. It basicly buys you an even spread of the whole stock exchange without the fees of funds, all you pay is courtage like you always do on trades. Buying 90% in a fund like that and perhaps 10% in a selection of high risk stocks is my recommendation.

I am however in the same situation as the OP in terms of the ammount of money I have to invest and I put it all in high risk companies because I do feel that I can afford to lose it, mainly for fun and it gives me an introduction to the stock market and companies in general.

I guess the debate comes down to that I personally do not have the same belief in gold as an investment that the market does. I think that it is overpriced and I would rather own something of practical use like production facilities or more commonly used raw materials like iron. I do own stocks in an iron prospecting company which also have interests in gold so perhaps there's no escaping it.

Investing seems like a really fun hobby and doing it with just enough money for it to not get run down the drain by courtage costs is fun enough to be done just for shits and giggles.

>> No.3337012

>>3336999
Again, that's what they said about real estate. Gold probably won't burst like real estate, but I have no interest in owning something that has little practical value. But then again, I would buy my wife an alloy wedding ring if I knew I would get away with it.

>> No.3337023

>>3336755

>Find a triple X ETF that you can buy into for a grand. And just hold it. There are half a dozen good ones to choose from.

don't do this, triple weighted etf's are for short term only. they decay over time. not for long term investing.

>> No.3337028

>>3337012
>But then again, I would buy my wife an alloy wedding ring if I knew I would get away
that's the kind of attitude which caused the real estate market to collapse.

>> No.3337043

>>3337028
What is the purpose of a ring? It's supposed to look pretty, right? If I can make it look as pretty with an alloy as I can with gold, but at a fraction of the price, I am and idiot for doing it with gold. Too bad bitch would be all like "YOU DIDNT SPEND THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS THAT MEANS YOU DONT LOVE ME". ;_;

>> No.3337051

Gold is valuable because people value it. Simple as that. By valueing something, it becomes valuable. Paintings, stamps, baseball cards, anything can be valued. Because of Gold's rarity, it can't be counterfeited. That's why people used it in the past. But it's obsolete as a guarantee of exchange.

>> No.3337089

>>3337043
Gold will last longer than any cheap alloy

>> No.3337149

>>3336999
Also, I do appreciate the inert value of gold and it's history, I just think it's overpriced and not necessarily such a good investment for the average person. I do endorse the idea of having currency tied to gold if a central official currency is the only option.

>> No.3337158

No economics is not science faggot. It does not follow the scientific method, and therefore is NOT SCIENCE. DUR DE DUR, TRY AGAIN RETARD..

Also sage, and rape your mum in the ass..

>> No.3337160

>>3337043
its a symbol of your ability to provide for her, if you dont have the money to spend on a ring you show that you also dont have the capability to care for her or her offspring.

>> No.3337175

>>3336843
>There was a peak in 1970, pretty much. Besides that, the worst that can happen is you'd break even for a couple of years.

Gold has about 40% of the real exchange value it had in 1980. If you had bought gold in the late 70s, you would STILL not have recouped your losses, more than 30 years later, and perhaps you never would.

>> No.3337182

>>3337160
>making bad financial decisions is a demonstration of your ability to provide

That is the rationale, yes, and the rationale is retarded.

>> No.3337207
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3337207

>>3337160
>spend 1000$ on nice gold wedding ring
>be good provider

>spend 1000$ on food, clothes, rent, electricity bill or doing fun stuff together
>be bad provider

>> No.3337223

>>3337207
ye, you've got it.
if you have to spend that money on food, you obviously don't have enough.

>> No.3337339

>>3337223
>doing fun stuff together