/sci/ - Science & Math

any of them COULD be correct.
...the second and third men are equally likely to be correct. and the 1st and 4th man are aequall likely to be correct
but either of the 2nd of 3rd men have the best chance overall.

All have equal chance, so they're all right. Now go fuck yourself.

They are neither correct nor incorrect - the states of the coins, heads or tails are in superposition until they land.

>>2088213

Unless you're trolling, you do not deserve to be trip fagging on /sci/

1st man 1/8 chance to be correct
2nd man 3/8 chance to be correct
3rd man 3/8 chance to be correct
4th man 1/8 chance to be correct

>>2088225

Please, PLEASE be trolling

>>2088225
>>2088213

see

>>2088215
>>2088217

im don't troll. here is all the possibilities for 3 coins flipping, and on the right column, shows which man will be correct in each case (1 = 1st man 2 = 2nd man, etc)

>>2088215
>>2088223
>>2088228

>>2088243
>I'm don't troll
>I am do not troll

>>2088243

Stop

i don't troll. here is all the possibilities for 3 coins flipping, and on the right column, shows which man will be correct in each case (1 = 1st man 2 = 2nd man, etc)

>>2088255

You're a fucking idiot.

>>2088217
They are all correct and incorrect - the states of the coins, heads or tails are in superposition even after they land.

>>2088250
>>2088252

whoops, lol i reposted, i spotted the spelling mistake... kinda ironically looking like a troll attempt... i was too slow to delete, you already saw it...anyway, reposted...
erm, my probability tree is correct, the 1st and 4th man are unlikely to be correct because each flip must be exactly what they need (either heads of tails depending on the man) for them to be correct in predicting HHH or TTT
but the otehr 2 men have several different combinations, and are more likely to be right.

>>2088260
orly?
do explain.

>>2088262
............................

they're all correct as probability is gay and is mathematical foreplay

>>2088266

All coins have 50/50 chance of landing.
HHH
(1/2)(1/2)(1/2) = 1/8

THH
(1/2)(1/2)(1/2) = 1/8

TTH
(1/2)(1/2)(1/2) = 1/8

TTT
(1/2)(1/2)(1/2) = 1/8

>>2088262

Might you be 12 years old?

Each side of the coin has a 50% chance of occurring. Each flip is an independent event from the others.

Therefore, the specific combinations of heads and tails are irrelevant when trying to calculate the probability each combination has of realizing itself.

In every trial, you have three flips, which means:

(.5)^3 = 0.125, or a 12.5% chance of happening.

Your graph relates to specific results and thus asks a different question, which in turn elicits a different answer.

>>2088290
their are supposed to be 2^n possibilities in the tree. 3 coins are flipped, so this is 8 possibilities, you have only listed 4.
for example, where is HTH?
1st coin heads, second coin tails, 3rd coin heads.

>>2088266
>>2088255
>>2088262

Your statements are so fucking stupid that justifying yourself for a troll means that you are one fucking stupid troll.
Also, they all have 1/8 chance of happening.

>>2088298
Each coin is independent and order is irrelevant.

Oh god, I'm being trolled so hard.

>>2088298

Good luck on your probability test champ!

>>2088292
but for some, there are several combinations. the 1st man is only correct with HHH, and there is only 1 combination for this.
the second man can be correct with 3 different combinations
HHT
HTH
THH
so he has more chance of being right.
u see?

>>2088298

>their are supposed to be 2^n possibilities in the tree. 3 coins are flipped, so this is 8 possibilities, you have only listed 4.

>their are supposed to be 2^n possibilities

>their are

I lol'd

BTW, it's the same shit for all possibilities. I was giving you four examples but obviously you aren't even in pre-algebra classes and also in remedial english classes due to your horrible spelling and grammar.

>>2088309

I understand your argument, but that isn't what the question is asking. See if you can find out why.

>>2088300
no, probabilities must add up to 1.
>>2088303
i am not trolling, i know i am correct, and i can't think of a way to explain it any better.
>>2088307
I don't have a probability test, but i know i am correct. if you do not understand that there are 8 different combinations for something like this, then i cant help you.

...

to simplify, lets say there are only 2 coins, and 3 men. 1 man says both will be heads, 1 man says 1 heads and 1 tails, the third man says both tails. who do you think is most likely to be correct?
is the probability a third each?
no.
1st or 3rd man, 1/4 chance of being right (1/2 X 1/2)
2nd man, can be correct in 2 different combinations, either HT, or TH, and is most likely to be correct. (1/2 chance)

> he doesn't know the difference between a combination and a permutation!

>>2088309

let's do this independently (1 coin flip at a time).
I flip the coin... it's either heads or tails (50%)

Wether it comes out as heads or tails, I flip it again
(this time, 50% chance again).

At this point, anyone can be correct because it's either going to be 1 head 1 tail, 2 heads or 2 tails (25% chance).

Flipping it a third time means another 50% chance
so basically, any combination of the 3 coins means they're all going to be 12.5%.

>>2088321

I'm guessing you're 6 weeks in to your first ever statistics course.

>>2088303

Not true, its true the end states are indistinguishable, but when calculating probabilities you have to count all degeneracies.

0-Heads : 1-fold degenerate, 1/8
1 Heads : 3-fold degenerate , 3/8
2 Heads : 3-Fold degenerate, 3/8
3 Heads : 1-Fold degenerate, 1/8

You can think of it this way, the coins can be represented as a 3-bit binary number

0Heads - 000
1 Head - 100, 010, 001
2 Heads - 110, 011, 101
3 Heads - 111

>>2088316
oh boohoo, a grammatical error. i spotted it as well, but decided it wasn't worth correcting.
also, look at my probability tree in this >>2088255
where is the error? prove me wrong. i have listed all 8 combinations there.
>>2088318
he asked "who is correct" and on my first post i said "any of them COULD be correct."
but i thought i would list the probabilities just to show that they are not all equally likely to be correct.

A man flips nine hundred trillion coins at the same time.

One man says 0-2% of them will be tails. Another says 49-51% will be tails. WHO IS MORE LIKELY TO BE RIGHT?

>>2088321

Order doesn't matter.

The question only asks the probability of HHT v TTT or HHH.

Probability of HHT = probability of HTH = probability of THH = 1/8

I....are we all being hella fucking trolled?

>>2088335

Quick question. How old are you?

>>2088303
Your argument would only be valid if order was relevant...?

I got trolled.

>>2088337

Same probability.

>>2088337

It's okay anon. Probability is hard. Glad you stopped trip coding though. It was honestly insulting me quite a bit.

>>2088337

both are

>>2088338
You state yourself your own error: order is irrelevant. The probability of HHT being 1/8 is ONLY true if order WERE relevant.

>>2088337

Both are extremely unlikely

THERE IS NO WAVE FUNCTION. NOTHING COLLAPSES. It was all a lie.

>>2088342

>>2088335

>oh boohoo, a grammatical error. i spotted it as well, but decided it wasn't worth correcting.

Meaning you are underage.

>also, look at my probability tree in this >>2088255

I already did. It has nothing to do with this problem.

>where is the error? prove me wrong. i have listed all 8 combinations there.

all 8 combinations happen to be 12.5% as i said here
>>2088329
>he asked "who is correct" and on my first post i said "any of them COULD be correct."

You also mentioned that either the 2nd man and 3rd man has a better chance overall which showed your lack of knowledge in the field of probability.

>but i thought i would list the probabilities just to show that they are not all equally likely to be correct.

Those aren't the correct probabilities, kid.

>>2088342
A man flips the same coin nine hundred trillion times.

One man says 0-2% of them will be tails. Another says 49-51% will be tails. WHO IS MORE LIKELY TO BE RIGHT?

A man flips 3 coins at the same time. He tells you that two have landed on heads. What is the probability all 3 landed on heads?

>>2088351

http://www.khanacademy.org/video/probability--part-1?playlist=Probability


>watch this
>realize you're a raging dumbass
>learn to never argue with /sci/
>my face when

>>2088345
>>2088346
>>2088352
>>2088345
>>2088346

So wrong its not even funny

>>2088363

Actually this one too.
http://www.khanacademy.org/video/probability--part-2?playlist=Probability

>>2088362

50%

>>2088365

Watch those two videos anon. Public high school is obviously failing you

>>2088334
yes, this guy understands.
and im not going to argue simple probability with the rest of you. if you want to see why i am correct, test it yourself, flip 3 coins and see if the probabilities are equally likely.

>>2088368

did you check your work?

>>2088369

MAXIMUM TROLLING

Your trying to tell us you are equally likely to get all heads and all tails as you are to get 50%. Thats just wrong. Isn't it past your bed time?

>>2088371

They fucking are!!!
WOW you are so fucking stupid.

>>2088371
Brofist, I'm also the anon that drew the histogram.

10 minutes in python to respond a troll, feels bad man.

>>2088342
...you can't be serious!

>>2088374

Okay...I'm at my wit's end here.

Listen up fellas. I scored a 127.5 on the AMC 12, I have a degree in mathematics and physics from MIT and I'm currently in grad school pursuing my masters.

I fucking know probability, OP is the greatest troll whoever lived, and watch the videos I posted to understand why you're so very stupid.

Does the concept of independent events mean anything to you? I mean....gaaah!

>>2088384
>our troll dials go all the way to 11

I have to admit, 11/10

If I'm writing a simulation in matlab to respond to a troll, I know I've been had.

>>2088363
>mvq that video completely disagrees with you
Nero confirmed for biggest troll on /sci/

>>2088384
>degree in math
300K starting amirite?

>>2088384
Does the concept of state degeneracies mean anything to you? I mean....gaaah!

>>2088384

>Hurr I has a Phd in Math and a BS in Probability

dear nero,

yous a nigger.

>>2088345
that isn't me, my tripcode stays on permanently
>>2088346
>>2088352
>>2088375
oh wow, so much fail in this thread...
>>2088362
1/4
pic related

>>2088384
>I have a degree in getting trolled hard on /sci/

>>2088411

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAHAHAHA

Fucking Retard, he is asking you if it's either gonna be 3 heads or not which means that if you flip a coin, you have a 50% chance of meeting that requirement.
God you are so fucking stupid.

>>2088416

By now I have a PhD in that shit.

>>2088425

You could be killed by a bus in the next ten seconds or you might not. 50/50 probability amiright? OH GOD THE BUS IS HERE!!!

>>2088384
>Listen up fellas. I scored a 127.5 on the AMC 12, I have a degree in mathematics and physics from MIT and I'm currently in grad school pursuing my masters.
a marine biologist? well...that sounds like a lie (pic related)
>OP is the greatest troll whoever lived
...OP just asked a question, OP is anonymous, and is not me.

ITT: Trolls trolling trolls

>Listen up fellas. I scored a 127.5 on the AMC 12, I have a degree in mathematics and physics from MIT and I'm currently in grad school pursuing my masters.
a marine biologist? well...that sounds like a lie (pic related)
>OP is the greatest troll whoever lived
...OP just asked a question, OP is anonymous, and is not me.

Successful trolls are successful. I'm out of this thread.

>>2088450
nope, trolls trolling me...im outta here...

>>2088411

EK - brofist right here

>>2088425

it's 1/4

also, for the more sophisticated probability gurus here, I have a challenge problem. A person has two children, at least one of whom is a son born on a Tuesday. What is the probability they are both boys?

>>2088457

Actually, the people whom you refer to as "trolls" meaning the people who agree that OP's question is unanswerable because they all have an equal chance of being correct ARE the correct people and you're just a poor high school faggot who is barely touching on the subject of probability and barely has any spelling or grammar skills whatsoever.

>What is the probability they are both boys?

53.5%

>>2088411
You are right of course.
However, there is a big TROLL in this thread.

>>2088464

I got a question for you:
>What is the probability of me giving a fuck?

>>2088464
tuesday is irrelevant...
atg least one is a son, so
BB maybe
BG maybe
GB maybe
GG cant happen
...so, 1/3 that they are both sons, amirite?

>>2088464

according to the probability gods of /sci/, 50%

it's always 50%

ALWAYS, NIGGER. GUYS WHATS THE PROBABILITY OF SAND ATTACK???

>>2088479

You disgust me.

>>2088474
who? nero? or the anon samefag who is probably still nero?

>>2088480

oh SHIT, I meant grainy sand

wait, quick, nero - what's the probability that I actually did mean sand attack?

50%?

>>2088487
Probability confuses you doesn't it?

GET IT THROUGH YOUR SKULLS. DEGENERACIES IN THE PROBABILITY STATES MATTER

>>2088493
lol'd

>>2088480
50%, either it happens or it doesn't

>>2088504
don't get mad, just ignore the trolls.
you can make the point further by pretending there are 20 coins flipped at the same time.
is "all 20 being heads" equally likely as "10 heads 10 tails"?
no, not even close.
actually, i think you already made the point here >>2088337
but they are too retarded to understand.

>>2088352
extremely unlikely indeed

filename refers to me.

>>2088323
>>2088323
>>2088323
>>2088323
>>2088323
>>2088323
>>2088323
>>2088323

>>2088520
>>2088520

PERHAPS, but what is the probability that it will happen THREE FUCKING TIMES?

PIC RELATED YOU GIANT PROBABILITANIGGER

>>2088525
Actually the boy/girl problem is more complicated than it seems at first glance. It has to do with the ambiguity of the way the answer is posed

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox

>>2088525

A man flips 3 coins at the same time. One man guesses that all 3 will be heads. Another says only 2 will be heads. A third man says only 1 will be heads. Finally, a fourth man says they will be all tails.

Who is correct?

OP's original question... can you answer it without putting in your bullshit permutation crap?

>>2088551
yes, i have read that before
>at least one of whom is a son
so its 1/3
if you said "the 1st one is a son" or something like that, then the probability is 1/2
>>2088556
yes i can
"any of them COULD be correct."

>>2088567

Just keep it that way, son.

I'm not smart enough to be on /sci/, I keep changing my mind whether or not the probability is 50%.

>>2088584

protip: it's not

>>2088584
are you referring to me?
just read the god-damn wiki link asshat >>2088551

>>2088584

EVERYTHING HAVING TO DO WITH COIN FLIPPING IS 50%

All of these post are trolls. any scientist knows that the coin's path and position is determined by it previous position, direction, and forces acting on it.
no probability needed. if 1000 coins were thrown the same way with the same path they would all land the same way.

this nero guy is trolling

the real question is how does a man flip 3 coins at the same time?

>>2088556
There isn't enough information to know who's correct because we don't know how the coins ended up. Is that the answer you're looking for?

Oh god.
I dont usually go here, but who is trolling and who is correct?

EK is correct. It looks like both people legitimately thought that they were correct at some point though.

>>2088831
The correct answer is that their probabilities of being correct are 1/8, 3/8, 3/8, and 1/8, respectively.

I am so using this one to own my maths teacher
she's a stupid bitch with a fetish for algerbra.

>>2088846
algebra*
sry

>>2088846
So draw an x^2 on your dick and fuck her silly

the funny thing is that nero links to khan academy video series parts 1 and 2, but if he had watched part 3, they talk about this exact problem at about 3:30.
http://www.khanacademy.org/video/probability--part-3?playlist=Probability

There are 8 outcomes
HHH
HHT
HTH
HTT
THH
THT
TTH
TTT

ways to get all heads {HHH}, all tails {TTT}, 1 Heads {HTT, THT, TTH} ways to get 2 heads {HHT, HTH, THH}.

>>2088587

EK I know you're probably long gone but if you come back later today please read this

http://sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/60598/title/When_intuition_and_math_probably_look_wrong

>>2088337
Law of large numbers says that the guy closest to %50 is right.