/sci/ - Science & Math

>>16447000
fuck you. who cares about this gay pencil rocket which launches gaylink and a negligible amount of other useless payloads. How does this effect my day to day life in a positive way?

>>16447000
im a cat fucker

>>16447013
I hope it makes your day-to-day worse
faggot

>>16447000
How do Americans cope with their private space industry experiment turning out to be a complete failure (and not even private really - every American space company would be bankrupt long time ago if not for taxpayer money)?

>>16447000
Thunderf00t debunked this

Another boeing geostationary satellite exploded.
Meanwhile, raptor test stand did 5 re-lights back to back then another 35 re-lights at random times today.
https://x.com/i/status/1849149229182411001

Raptor is starting to behave like an actual sci-fi ship engine now.

>>16447018
yeah

STATIC FIRE TODAY
LAUNCH ON MONDAY
https://x.com/BocaChicaGal/status/1849404145859506372

>>16447077
is this an actual bot? what the fuck

are you guys really so sad that all you do is circlejerk about rockets all day? makes it sadder that its cult clown Musk rockets in particular too.

Can't get over this

>>16447136
>are you guys really so sad that all you do is circlejerk about rockets all day?
yes

>>16446993
Just an expendable grift for grant money. Same as plasma magnet.

>>16447077
>Missing indefinite article
Yep, it's a slavshit

>>16447139
anon the one thing that is in abundance on Mars is empty space

I guess this is the real /sfg/ now.

stupid fucking janny nuked all the other threads

Staging

>>16447016
Who the fuck posts this shit in /sfg/?

spess

Retarded janny confirmed

Who the fuck poops in /sfg/?

>>16448272
Imagine there's even just 2 or 3 multiplanetary civilizations per galaxy in this image. There's probably more.
>>16448276
Gross people.

Slav shits

>>16448276
Disguting people

>>16448277
there's none but there's a lot of alien moss and fungi and such

>theres allot of life exaclty like that on eartth
idiot

>>16448282
I think fungi is like nature's von neumann machines and seed the entire galaxy with life. super hardy, lie dormant, spores get fucking everywhere

>>16448283
be happy I didn't give the reddit take of saying aliens are like crabs

so much for the page 10 autism

nobody cares dork

I saved a cat

i call bullshit

>>16448283
Who said that? We have no idea what interplanetary civilizations might look like, or how they might be organized. Our best guesses are grasping in the dark.

>>16448296
>>16448292
>>16448291
>>16448293
samefag

What was the official explanation for the pajeet orbital bomb?

>>16448298
You are fucked beyond recognition

HOLY F********** GUYS

OFT 6 LICENSE JUST DROPPED

AAAAAAAAAAAAAA

>>16447054
Is that 39?

What was the previous record for relights? What about for any engine period?

>>16448277
>>16448282
The rest of the universe didn't exist until humans became capable of studying it in detail. It was essentially generated by our attempts to understand it.
Atum-Ra and his host withdrew from Creation into the Duat temporarily in order to let this development continue without their interference. Thoth's observations have led him to begin the process of restoring himself and the host into the world so that they may venture out into the unknown as humanity's vanguard. They will likely take the form of humans who have synthesized themselves with AI. Thoth will be the first to emerge. I worry about what he saw that made him think this was necessary.

>>16448304
*intercom whistle*
Boeing please report to the Principle's office. Boeing please report to the Principle's office.
*compressed sound of phone smashing into plastic*

>>16448309
*Principal's
**Principal's
sorry

>>16448311
Oh hell no I'm not getting close enough to that door to read the sign if you they see you through that frosted glass your ass is getting called

>>16448315
what the fuck are you even talking about

>>16448315
Yeah, well you're readin' that sign

>>16448323
Blue Origin has never hit a deadline. Even every New Shepard launch gets scrubbed.

>>16448317
See you monday teach

https://youtu.be/TViIk4Py6lc?si=7-w7yHkelhWWIuwR

>many times the loco pilot cannot control the train at such high speeds

>>16448306
Pretty sure it's 39, which would be the number of times Space Shuttle Discovery was used.

>>16448328
You little twerp

>>16448329
what the fuck is a villager

>>16448335
you need them to collect resources

>>16448328
You are hereby expelled from /sfg/-high

>>16448335
those guys

>20 years on the ISS and we still haven't grown a 2 ton (weightless) pumpkin.
what a waste of my tax dollars

>janny killed the retarded /pol/ thread
Haha get fucked

>>16448335
Indians (tech support not casinos) who live remotely and traditionally. No phones, no lights, no motor cars. They do have movies. When presented with a globe they thought it was a movie prop.

>>16448343
Pretty sure this is the /pol/ thread. I'm voting for Trump, I hope you are too.

>>16448342
I support this idea. A short-term solution to growing food for Mars is growing it in orbit and dropping it down to your colony. It'd be quicker than cleaning out enough soil to grow under domes on the surface, and would be a good supplement while surface-production is getting established.
>>16448346
If you want SpaceX to not get nationalized I'm not sure how you could rationalize any other vote.

>>16448347
>someone saved my webm
yee

How is New Glenn supposed to be work when it has 1/5th the thrust of Starship?

Daily reminder that there is literally no reason to colonize Mars with humans

Now that Stump has been brought up, how will he do literally anything different from his previous presidency? He did literally nothing good for space back then
>inb4 space force and artemis
Artemis has become a jobs program that uses billions upon billions for useless stations and cannibalizes critical science missions and telescopes for their budget. Space Force already existed before them, what Trump did was just make them 'official'. Literally nothing at all changed except they had a new name.

>>16448357
If he actually puts Elon in charge of re-structuring the government then the change would be completely fucking radical.

>>16448353
I’d just like to interject for a moment. What you’re referring to as Starship, is in fact, Starshp/Super Heavy or as I’ve recently taken to calling it, Starship plus Superheavy. Starship is not an orbital rocket unto itself, but rather another component of a fully functioning launch vehicle made useful by the Superheavy booster, Mechazilla, and vital OLM components comprising a full superheavy lift launch vehicle as built by SpaceX.

>>16448357
>Now that Stump has been brought up, how will he do literally anything different from his previous presidency?
The only thing I'm confident about is that he will do whatever Israel wants him to

>>16448361
Just say youre antisemitic.

>>16448363
I am

>>16448360
Sorry GNUwU poster, How is GS1 relevant in 2024 when Superheavy has 5 times more thrust?

>>16448365
same way electron is "relevant" now. by being not spacex and the second or third best option.

Kek based janny fucking those 'b-but muh board culture' faggots

These are the gimbal engines.
So I guess if one of these fail then New Glenn just punches a hole straight through Landing Platform Vessel 1.

>>16448357
Seems like a long road. Doge has to happen instead of just being an election meme, then congress needs to confirm elon's appointment so we don't get a phony in there. The lobbyists in washington are going to fight this thing from the start. Even if doge has no decision power they would need auditing powers to be effective. This is actual drain the swamp shit which I'm not hopeful can ever happen.

>>16448373
Exactly. This gives us a mandate to stage whenever we want! This is FREEDOM

>>16448357
best thing the next president can do is task spacex to put the vp on moon surface within 4 years, completely separate from the Artemis structure. 2 billion only payable if it's done before the term ends.

>>16448359
>If he actually puts Elon in charge of re-structuring the government
I somehow doubt that would happen. The best-case scenario is Trump would just let Elon and SpaceX do their thing but that's about it.

>>16448373
>>16448393
The reason we have a stage flooding problem is someone will early stage, then the current thread reaches page 10, then a 'real' thread is made to avoid rewarding the early stager, then the early stager just keeps early staging anyway even though no one uses his thread. Using the early stage thread would fix the problem, but then you reward mental illness.

>>16448414
Rewarding mental illness is what got us troons.

>reddit melting down because elon has talked to putin so starlink doesn't end up triggering WW3
Isaacson book also has a chapter on it. The conversation wasn't broadcast to the world which in their minds means it was "secret" and therefore he is a traitor who should be arrested immediately for complying with US State dept regulations by not illegally allowing Starlink to be used to attack targets inside Russia. They are honestly clueless that SpaceX has crushed the Russian space launch industry or the that Elon was footing the bill for Starlink in Ukraine initially. It should be obvious that another great power conflict with be fatal to his space colonization ambitions.

>>16448424
Literally who asked about Putler?

>>16448425
the wall st. journal

two weeks

>>16448379
damn that ho thick. ya'll got more of her??

>>16448105
JIDF has been trying to drive people away from the chans by making it an unpleasant place and intelligent conversations impossible, I'm sure it them. Can't have the JQ discussed ever.

>>16448330

Wait does the SSME even relight again on the same mission?

>>16448452
This post is offtopic

>>16448445
Yeah, New Glenn is a pretty big rocket, there's plenty of pictures around.

>>16448463
For you

>>16448464
insanely wholesome

LIVE crew 8 splashdown stream https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CRB3FHV9Dw

https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1849696300503318830

Two hot blondes

>>16448466
Reddit chungus Keanu wholesome Reeves

it's still insane that spacex almost didn't get the com crew contract. Look at em now, crew 8 + axiom flights + Rook's flights

>>16448472
If I was inthe room I would rip their clothes off. I seriously would have no control

>>16448464
pretty jelly

Space karen

https://x.com/davill/status/1849459575998583268
>Great job by the engineering, operations and engine teams on the installation (here is another view.) The seven #BE4 engines in this image will deliver more than 3.8 million pounds of thrust for #NewGlenn. Three of the seven engines gimbal to provide the control authority for New Glenn during ascent, re-entry, and landing on Jacklyn, our recovery vessel downrange at sea. That gimbal capability, along with the landing gear and Reaction Control System thrusters, are key to making our booster fully reusable. Fun fact: The vehicle's max design gimbal condition is during ascent when it has to fight high-altitude winds.

Space kyle

Space chad
>Verification not required.

>>16448457
calm down, David, he asked a question

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1849697543543980378
>Olbermann has achieved the impossible and gone BEYOND "full retard"
>SpaceX is the primary communication system of the Ukrainian military on the front lines, because everything else has been destroyed or jammed by the Russians!

>>16448498

speaking of which what's going on with star shield? is it really just starlink sats but dedicated for the mil, with different frequencies or something

>>16448503
we'll find out when bibi attacks iran

>>16448504
Who?

always seemed strange to me they close the nosecone AFTER the deorbit burn

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/musk-putin-secret-conversations-37e1c187
>Elon Musk has been in regular contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin since late 2022. At one point, Putin asked him to avoid activating his Starlink internet service over Taiwan as a favor to Chinese leader Xi Jinping
>Musk was having regular conversations with 'high-level Russians,' according to a person familiar with the interactions. At the time, there was pressure from the Kremlin on Musk’s businesses and 'implicit threats against him,' the person said."
latest elon/starlink hit piece, probably a nothingburger?

>>16448498
>>16448499
He's right

>>16448509
No. Felonious Moskal Husk is a criminal traitorous felon that needs to be locked up immediatly before him and ScamX poison the well any further

>>16448498
Wow, I didn't expect Elon to say "retard".

>>16448509
>All these hit pieces against Elon/SpaceX up in unison the past few days
Someone's salty

>>16448509
I swear to God if I have to hear Russia/Russia/Russia/Hitler/Hitler/Hitler for the next four years please declare martial law and dispose of the media gentry. I mean it, the entire journalist class, execute them

>>16448513
He smokes weed live on air.

>>16448509
>according to a person familiar with the interactions

>>16448509
Journalism isn't about finding stories any more, its about stitching together a bunch of words and sentences that actually say nothing at all, but framing them in such a way that they cause the reader to infer a story by themselves that you *didn't* technically write.
"Musk has dealings with Putin!" No shit, Musk *is* space.
No starlink for Taiwan? The Taiwanese government restricted starlink due to already existing legislation.
"muh contacts"

>>16448509
But taiwan doesn't even allow starlink to operate there anyway since they require 51% ownership of ISPs.

>>16448517
Based

>>16448517
What if instead we threw you in jail for being a Putinbot

>>16448525
>since they require 51% ownership of ISPs
retards

>>16448527
You won't take me alive. Expect dead feds

>>16448539
good then we'll have twice the dead traitors

>>16448542
Kek

>>16448509
>according to a person familiar with the interactions
So you can just straight up make shit up now? This shit doesn't even make sense in the first place. Kremlin has no direct way to pressure Musk's businesses, none of them are involved in anyway with Russia. And like other mentioned Taiwan doesn't allow Starlink to be sold there in the first place, which has nothing to do with China.

>>16448542
Killing journalists is a God-given right

wtf a dragon just flew over my house

>>16448545
>So you can just straight up make shit up now?
yes, this has been happening for a while now, of course they try to do it without explicit lies if they can like framing it in a certain way and so on but blatant lies aren't uncommon either

>>16448509
>woman
>hyphenated last name
Yikes

>>16448499
>anybody who shows even the slightest hesitation to give all their blood and treasure, even their children's lives, to protect nu-israel deserves to be hung for treason!
(((they))) are absolutely loosing it over this war, drove them to genocide the Gazans they are so beside themselves with frustration

>>16448509
>implicit threats against him
s-should we be worried?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0bXJgDD8lk
>Is Neutron almost ready? Peter Beck interview

Crew-8 looking good.

800m to go

sploosh

Splashdown!

>>16448561
nice screencap. must feel amazing feeling the capsule hit the water.

>>16448555
who is this slut?

>>16448509
https://archive.is/6S1qC
Clickbait. Only the 2022 rumour is mentioned where putin threatened to noook if Crimea was attacked which Musk already denied even happened and the Taiwan 'evidence' is from a 'ex-Russian spy' who somehow claims he knows what his superiors were doing somehow.

NAFO retards eating it up cos they only read the title though and are seething ol Musky is siding with Trump..

>>16448565
I have no idea, the video just got recommended

>>16448565
You sound like a chauvinistic pig

>>16448569
what gave you that idea?

>>16448571
Your oinking and squealing at the sight of a woman

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1849714841105334429

>>16448498
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1849704081394479311

>>16448572
great work detective!

>>16448509
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1849703862091080122

>>16448576
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1849707863050158368

https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1849714422593487175

>no onboard live cam
lame

Not to get too political but it's fucking insane that the managerial class thinks it makes sense from a security perspective to go toe-to-toe with the guy who puts 90% of the world's payload to space.

>>16448578
https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1849713619774341379

>>16448533
It's so China can't economic warfare their telecoms.

>>16448580
They are authoritarian and feel entitled to power. Their hubris and failures will be their undoing. The executive apparatus and regulatory state is in for a rude awakening.

>>16448545
Have you been around for the past 10 years? Yeah, you can literally just make shit up in the media now, more specifically since 2013 in the US.

>>16448581
I thought that said "Instead of splashing down" and panicked for a sec.

>>16448580
Why? He is gonna rod from god Olbermann now?

>>16448580
They tried to ban math once too bro.

>>16448580
Bold of you to assume they think it makes sense.

>>16448585
>more specifically since 2013
>since 2013
haha lol kek jajaja wwwwwww lmao

how naive

Aw sweet, a /pol/ thread!

>>16448592
I would love for US space hegemony not to be a partisan issue. But it is, somehow.

>>16448588
yes please
put some cameras around the location

>>16448592

>>16447000
Thoughts on skyrora?

How could you walking on Mars after 9 months trip if you can't even do after 6 months on Earth orbit???

>>16448603
Less gravity.

>>16448517
>Russia/Russia/Russia/Hitler/Hitler/Hitler
That fucking tactic ain't going anywhere. Communists have used it to great success since the 1950s.

>>16448611
Yeah the comparison to Hitler isn't helpful. He didn't draft dodge and served in WW1.

anyone else having problems with accessing pockocmoc's website?
https://www.roscosmos.ru/

>>16448591
technically true since 2013 is when anon became conscious

>>16448615
It has been like that for a while now. Tried to get the documents for the test firings of the rd-303 a few weeks ago and was unable to access it. I think they have blocked all IPs outside Russia.

>>16448622
>rd-303
rd-301*

>>16448599
Who?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Jgev_YGl44
this retard is moving goalposts and holy deluge of spacex misinformation

I won

>>16448499
>>16448498
My honest reaction

>>16448632
Forgot the FUCKING IMAGE

>>16448629
What did you win champ?

>>16448634
kill yourself

>>16448627
NDT is impossible to watch.
Every time he talks it's like watching a 60 year old black dude slowly bringing himself to orgasm with the sound of his own voice.

>>16448634
who is this faggot and why are you posting screenshots of him?
and I mean that actually looks unironically like a homosexual

>>16448627
it is amusing that he has made it so obvious recently how astroturfed his whole science educator role was. wholly undeserved and probably had some agency running his career for him. wonder if he stopped paying them or it got DEI'd and as such the competency crisis can't keep him looking legitimate

>>16448627
>my feud
When was the last time they've been in the same room?

>>16448644
Before Cosmos: Hood edition, people actually believed him when he wrote he was mentored by Carl Sagan.
When people sought clarification he slowly gave up more of the lie until he was down to "I met him a couple times and he signed a letter".
His whole life is astroturfed, the dude's field of study is counting stars.

>>16448644
>wonder if he stopped paying them or it got DEI'd and as such the competency crisis can't keep him looking legitimate
What is this word salad even supposed to mean.

>>16448625
google it

>>16448592
It's not /pol/, it's actually observably happening.

Holy crap. There's actually a legitimate Musk h doujin about him making catgirls for Mars. A legitimate one.. and it has a sequel too. LMAO

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/solar-power-from-space-actually-it-might-happen-in-a-couple-of-years/?comments-page=1#comments

this was posted a while ago, but I didn't see a lot of discussion
interestingly if the power delivered is much higher per area compared to simply solar, then perhaps there are some niche applications like pic related, cruise ships going fully electric, remote military bases (relatively small power receivers vs large field of solar panels)
but the power/area would have to be pretty high

>>16448650
browns just can't keep up

fags

>>16448676
source?

>>16448697
Aizaws Hiroshi created it.

>>16448697
Insatiable Bastards - Elon Musk's Ambition

>>16448684
I have only seen people talk about it as an idea. I’d like to see some hard numbers.
A quantitative measurement of how much power could be generated by a simple power constellation (can this ability simply be “added” to Starlink??) What is the mechanism for transmitting and receiving power? Would you construct local “substations,” perhaps the size of a car or something, that receives power from multiple satellites and banks it all in a power bank for local distribution such as a military base or whatever? Could you beam power directly to homes?

>>16448712
the point of this thing is to be a low cost demonstrator, being sent to LEO with a transporter mission
kind of doubtful but it would be cool if it had some utility as it would increase the need to send more mass to orbit

New Armstrong mogs Starship

>>16448734
>this thing that exists in my hallucinations mogs starship
yeah

>>16448644
>>16448649
Even Sagan was criticized for being a lightweight somewhat during his time though it was never as deserved. For NDT shoes were simply too big to fill and the very premise that the world needed DEI Carl Sagan was retarded to begin with.

>>16448734
Should be ready by the 2050's then? The 18m Starships will be nearing phase out in favor of the 21m version.

>>16448736
Carl Sagan was a "lightweight" to fit his role as a science communicator. He performed his part perfectly as a liaison between people who knew their shit and people who wanted to know enough shit to be inspired.
NDT wants to be the best science communicator, the smartest astronomer who ever lived, the most prolific author, he wants it all.
He's a narcissistic midwit and his contribution to science is repeating someone else's work in calculating how to count dots in a field.
It's like that "good will smith" clip from Norm McDonald, but instead of 2+2 on a whiteboard it's a black man learning how to do a "connect the dots" puzzle.

>>16448739
Late 2040's (read - 2050's) is the official timeline, yes.

>>16448746
Jeff will be a brain in a vat or uploaded to AWS by then.

All spaceflight problems have a simple solution - A bigger rocket

>>16447000
The most important technology for spaceflight is biotechnology. You will never reach other stars if you do modify humans.

raptorunreliabilitysisters how do we respond without sounding mad

>>16448753
It's so unreliable it can't even run for more than 8 seconds.

>>16448756
no, you sounded upset in that one, try again.

>>16448753
Rapid reusability of Raptors wasn't proven by that test, the stress for the engine is different in re-entry and landing. When they do a successful static fire within 48 hours after landing I will be convinced.

>>16448580
Elon's whole thing is that he disrupted a lot of people's happy stagnation, solving many deliberately unsolved problems. Basically everyone is seething that despite all the money and "power" wielded over a literal century to maintain a certain status quo, the market still rewards the creation of value. Even non-anti-semitically the companies he's fucking with are owned by the hedge funds that lost money on tesla that also own the media companies that run the news, so every power hungry normalfag happy to extend state control through themselves has 100% convinced themselves that the greatest man of our time is a dangerous fraud who should be jailed

>>16448753
>>>/wsg/5716362
Actual footage from Stennis (real)

>>16448753
Some senior engineer probably got asked by Elon how many times can Raptor relight and when there wasn't an exact answer he was told he would be fired next meeting if he didnt know by then. So here we are. Numerous examples of this sort of thing in Isaacson's book.

>>16448763
nope, you still sounded angry in that one as you're resorting to phony logic.
sisters we need a response that doesn't sound mad.

>>16448556
thumbnail looks like dog

>>16448734
Total pownage

Drink cum today

What was the technological breakthrough that allowed clusters of engines to all fit on a single first stage?

>>16448580
They're using the people below them to fight against Musk. Why do you think they control the media?

Went to the library today and asked if they have Musk's autobiography but it was 35 euros so I didn't take it.

>>16448780
Wasn’t really any breakthrough, it was a natural progression from V-2 to second / third-generation rockets (V2 to redstone to saturn, V2 to R-1 to R-7 aka soyuz, V2 to diamant to ariane 1)

>>16448739
Don't sleep on Blue.

>>16448785
>paying at the librarby

>>16448787
ZZZZZZZZZZZ

>>16448787
my mattress cover is blue

Musk has been warned by the DOJ

>>16448799
Warned of what?

>>16448793
my mattress cover has jizz stains all over

>>16448799
it is funny how our federal apparatuses can warn citizens against doing legal things then of course never act on their prior warnings when it stops mattering (like after an election)

>>16448802
>when it stops mattering (like after an election)
depends who wins

Crew-8 members have all been transported to a local medical facility for “additional evaluation”
NASA says they decided to begin all elements out of a, quote, “abundance of caution”. Meaning at least one of the astronauts had a medical issue I imagine. Could just be sea sickness or a cold?

>>16448803
>polymarket.com/elections
depends on if they can convincingly steal another election you mean

>>16448804
Unfortunately, they lave long form Starliner Syndrome

>>16448806
what is polymarket and why should I trust it?

>>16448799
10 days!

>>16448753
Is this a main engine, or an RCS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcXouT8ggfI

>>16448809
I'm fairly sure it's some bitcoin/crypto/web 3.0 nonsense, it's probably safe to ignore it.

>>16448809
do you live under a rock?

>>16448809
It's a gambling website.
Take it as seriously as sports gambling. A 65% chance of trump winning seems about right to me.

>>16448806
>higher = win
So you'd gladly play Russian roulette with two in the chamber? It's more likely it's empty so that means it's safe.

>>16448767
On the one hand that sounds like a terrible work environment, but on the other it is a pretty valid question considering what they want to do with these engines.

>>16448809
>what
prediction market though this one is for non-americans
>trust
if you mean the platform then they're legit on payout. if you mean the idea of a futures prediction market well it's been shown to give better results than experts
currently have a $2,440,142,989 Vol. for the trade
https://learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/get-started/what-is-polymarket/
you can use USDC if other crypto bother you
>>16448812
leftist stupid reddit nigger lol

https://x.com/joroulette/status/1849788904972357942

>>16448817
>leftist stupid reddit nigger lol
thanks for proving me right

>>16448813
>>16448814
>>16448817
Can I gamble on weather a certain launch will fail?

>>16448818
space fungus strikes again

>>16448820
I'm not sure how polymarket works but I knows theres websites where you can start a bet about anything you want.

>>16448818
they always get a health check up after landing. has that dude never watched a return?

>>16448820
maybe

>>16448820
Indirectly.

>>16448820
there was a prediction market for if boeing starliner would return with crew but it was one of the no money sites

>>16448819
you got left behind by crypto exploding in value because you're a faggot leftist and I am now worth 8 figures because I let my gpu run hot for a few years LMFAO

>>16448823
>theres websites where you can start a bet about anything you want.
Link?

>>16448811
Main engine, the exhaust was too long for it to be a RCS

>>16448832
https://www.metaculus.com
if the main free one afaik

>>16448824
Additional evaluation, retard. As in, this is more than the standard procedure

>>16448832
I don't know any specifics sadly. I know there tightly controlled prediction markets and more loose ones. Also real money and play money versions. Couldn't tell you which is which though.

>>16448836
We should build Orion battleships so immensely big that it would require quad Raptors just as RCS so it can turn and orient

>>16448840
they always get that RETARD as the initial health check is just by a doctor on the ship. fucking tourists who know nothing but spreading their own shit all over their face

>>16448844
https://x.com/commercial_crew/status/1849788128443142465
Read it and weep; you don’t have to admit you are wrong, that we can all deduce

yikes
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/spacex-lands-people-on-mars-by-2030/

lol

>>16448849
I think 2030 will be the year personally so technically I'd have to vote no here :(

>>16448832
>>16448839
Metaculus isn't a prediction market, it's just a forecasting site. The prediction is just an aggregate of the user predictions, nobody is betting here. I don't think just anyone can make markets on Metaculus. (Metaculus generally does the best though, as far as I'm aware.)
Manifold markets is a play money prediction market, where anyone can sign up and make markets, I've seen it posted here a few times, and I think this is where this >>16448828 market was.
Polymarket is a real-money prediction market, people bet money on whether or not some event will happen. The reason this works is because the market should pay out in expectation if you, for example, buy a yes share at 60% if and only if the underlying true probability is greater than 60%. A 60% share costs $0.60 and pays out $1.00. In the long run, you break even if an event is trading at %60 and in fact happens %60 of the time. It's like a poll, but you're punished for being a retard by losing money, so you can't just spout bullshit for free. It's not "available" in the U.S., but it's crypto. You're supposed to just lie, use your brain.
The big one everyone knows is PredictIt, but it only does politics, mainly in the U.S. This is a real money prediction market.
There's also Kalshi, which is legal in the U.S. and a real money market, but there are very few markets and they have shit volume so there's not a whole lot of money to be made there, it's worth looking at if you're interested though.

I made/make decent money on these just by betting against obvious retards, not so much recently since it turned into kind of a slog, but it was fun for a while.

>>16448851
How could someone unironically believe this after IFT4?

>>16448851
What a bastardization of the truth. The internet was a mistake, letting every idiot confidently spew forth their stupid ideas

>>16448851
At what point heat shield was not needed? Even ITS had heat shield and that was when the rocket only existed in concept

>>16448855
Thanks for the quick rundown. I'm guessing I can sign up to polymarket with a random email and then send crypto? Who are the obvious retards you bet against

>>16448862
He’s incorrectly describing methane perspiration cooling

>>16448862
For a short window after the stainless steel announcement, the plan was to have the skin of starship actively cooled by flowing and weeping methane.
While it would be awesome its easy to deduce why they put that idea on the shelf.

>>16448851
>space shuttle style
I would say SS style would be non-uniform custom molded tiles specifically. is there a source for how many unique tiles it actually had?

>>16448851
>>16448856
>>16448859
Care to point out where the guy is wrong?

I remember you retards screeching about how bad Space Shuttle tiles are, how retarded oldspace was for using them, and how genius SpaceX was forsimply using a bare stainless steel heat shield...
Then they quietly added tiles but promised every tile would be identical (despite that being impossible due to the shape of the vehicle) and all you retards were screeching about how stupid Space Shuttle was for using unique tiles to fit the form of the spacecraft...
Then they quetly made dozens of unique tile shapes to fit the body of the craft (like shuttle) and all you retards were screeching about how "NO, BUT THIS TIME ITS DIFFERENT, THIS TIME IT WILL BE RAPIDLY REUSABLE OR SOMETHING LOL"...
Then they quietly made plans for a hangar dedicated to inspecting and replacing the tiles on the ship every flight... LIKE SHUTTLE....

>>16448848

>>16448869
>I remember you retards screeching about how bad Space Shuttle tiles are, how retarded oldspace was for using them,
Post one of example of a non-shitpost saying this.

>>16448851
>10% chance by 2030
lol. Didn't NASA have a 70% joint confidence level for early 2028 or something

>>16448868
Yeah the bulk of the tiles being uniform and hexagonal is already an enormous improvement.
Probably.

>>16448869
Unlike the shuttle, the design changes as engineering progresses. If tiles are lighter, cheaper, and more reliable, then there's no problem. I still hate tiles though
>>16448870
Concerning

>>16448851
>it was supposed to have a stainless hull capable of withstanding entry on its own
nope, it was a question of methane sweating or heat shield, the methane sweat system would not have been simple either and not necessarily any more rapidly reusable than the tiles

>shuttle tiles break
>the ship disintegrates
>starship tiles break
>lands in the wrong place

>>16448869
> how bad Space Shuttle tiles are
they are, retard

>>16448869
You're being highly disingenuous, which of course is the only way you can make an argument.

>>16448871
you really think I screencap posts from half a decade ago to show to retards like you?
If you don't know then you are a newfag.

>>16448875
The tiles are made from the EXACT same material as Shuttle tiles. There is no material science innovation here at all. Sure they can probably do the inspections for cheaper than NASA, but Starship will never be able to refuel and refly twice in the same day, or even the same week. I guarantee it.

Btw, shuttle tiles cannot withstand lunar or Martian entry velocities, so manned trips to Mars and back straight up aint happening. This problem with the shield is part of why dear moon was cancelled. it was/is technically impossible. Orion is unironically needed to return humans from the Moon.

>>16448877
Aluminium, the bug-zapper of engineering materials.

>>16448870
There was probably a report of an ammonia smell

>>16448883
>lunar entry
>tiles

>leftist having a meltdown after I made fun of him for missing out on generational wealth
heh

>>16448883
>The tiles are made from the EXACT same material as Shuttle tiles
wrong, they are multiple generations developed from that

>>16448883
>Orion is needed to return humans from the moon
phew. thank god Orion has a flawless heatshield

>>16448883
the archive exists newfag

>>16448882
?
Care to point out where I am being disingenuous?
I'm just retelling the history of this general.

>>16448879
I know they are bad, which is why its bad that staarship is uisng them. Thats the point!

>>16448877
Many tiles on shuttle broke or fell off newfag. Have you literally never heared of foam strikes? If starship normalises losing tiles then 100% it will kill a crew. You dont know which tile loss is fatal and which is not until it happens.

>>16448883
The material of the heat tiles for the shittle wasn't the main problem (and they aren't the exact same regardless). It was that there was a bazillion different individual heat tiles and because of the shittle's garbage as aluminium structure they had to cover the entire fucking shittle in them.

>>16448889
Orion returned didnt it?
And it returned within safety margins, unlike Starship which burnt through the shield both times. The only reason NASA are worried about the shield is because they are pussies who are overcautious. The shield is safe but just doesnt behave how they expected.

>>16448893
>I know they are bad, which is why its bad that staarship is uisng them. Thats the point!
they are not the same tiles, Starship has redundancy under them if something goes wrong and I guarantee you they have way smaller number of tiles
also SpaceX is actually competent and is able to iterate rapidly, so they can actually solve problems when they come up instead of sweeping them under the rug like with the Shuttle

>>16448894
>It was that there was a bazillion different individual heat tiles
WRONG.
Don't you know how easy it is to make silica tiles?
It's not exactly like making unique engines...

>>16448892
(you)

>>16448888
Care to explain?

>>16448895
>And it returned within safety margins
Only 10% of the heatshield chunked off therefore we have a 10x safety factor!

>>16448893
>Care to point out where I am being disingenuous?
>I'm just retelling the history of this general.
To begin with this general didn't even exist when Starship decided to use tiles.
Secondly you ignore the entire reason why the shittle's heat tiles were so hated in the first place.
Lastly you're making completely unfounded claims. Deer moon was cancelled because Miyazaki underestimated just how long it would take for Starship to get ready for such a flight. Claiming they can't withstand Martian entry velocities are completely unfounded as well.

>>16448896
>Starship has redundancy under them if something goes wrong
You have to throw away the ship if there is burnthrough. The ablative cannot be reused, and there is not enough ablative for a full reentry.
The problem is it wont be rapidly reusable, and in the case of burnthrough it wont be reusable at all.

>>16448870
I'll buy one share of
Someone developed mild symptoms consistent with hydrazine poisoning.

>>16448894
yeah
steel vs aluminium
gen n tiles vs gen 1 tiles
a small number of different shapes vs 10k different tiles
tile damage redundancy through an ablative vs redundancy in some very specific locations through sheer luck

then you have advances in automation and whatever which will allow SpaceX to automate the replacement and inspection of the tiles when they have actually iterated up to an acceptable solution, the ships will be mass produced so the system will go through massive iteration due to that and the initial flights (and in any case) will be unmanned vs all shuttle flights being manned for completely retarded reasons

>>16448895
Nigger it came back looking like the moon.

>>16448897
>WRONG.
>Don't you know how easy it is to make silica tiles?
>It's not exactly like making unique engines...
It is when every single tile must be exactly done right or the heat expansion of the frame of the shittle and the tiles themselves can cause catastrophic consequances. That is the single biggest reason why it took such a long time to replace its heat tiles. Starship doesn't have this problem. It doesn't need to produces a bazillion different shapes that need to be perfectly put together. It uses the same shape of the tiles almost anywhere, and it's much more resistant to slight imperfections of their individual placements.

>>16448901
>To begin with this general didn't even exist when Starship decided to use tiles.
Uhm, aktually!
>Secondly you ignore the entire reason why the shittle's heat tiles were so hated in the first place.
?
>Lastly you're making completely unfounded claims. Deer moon was cancelled because Miyazaki underestimated just how long it would take for Starship to get ready for such a flight.
lol, buddy. Musk promised him a deadline. We all know Musks deadlines are always fake but why was he expected to know that. Dearmoon wont even be possible by 2030, should he just keep paying forever?

>>16448870
It's over
>https://x.com/TLPN_Official/status/1801021815570997317

>>16448902
you are just pulling that out of your ass, you can fix it, replace the tiles and ablative (they have done it already when they decided to remove the tiles and put ablative + the next gen stronger tiles on the ships)
the fact that the ablative cannot be reused is irrelevant, its there as a redundancy and might be removed in the future when they the tile system gets reliable enough

>>16448908
>june 12th

>>16448907
>Uhm, aktually!
So you agree you were disingenuous? Good.
>Uhm, aktually!
Read the thread retard
>lol, buddy. Musk promised him a deadline. We all know Musks deadlines are always fake but why was he expected to know that. Dearmoon wont even be possible by 2030, should he just keep paying forever?
It doesn't matter, you lied through your teeth for the reasoning why it was cancelled. That was the point I was making. Not that Miyazaki was a gullible retard for thinking Starship would be ready in 2023.

>>16448906
>the heat expansion of the frame of the shittle and the tiles themselves can cause catastrophic consequances
Stainless doesnt expantd when hot? You learn something new every day!
>>16448905
Look at the Apollo heatshields.
Starship would come back as molten slag from those velocities.
>>16448900
Problem?
Ablative heat shields are meant to ablate, sugar.

why do leftists argue like such jewish faggots?

>>16448907
no deadline was promised, miyzaki just lost half his net worth during covid so he chickened out

>>16448911
Youre trolling at this point.
You literally agreed with me that Starship cant do dearmoon but for some reason have a stick up your ass about it.

>>16448912
>Stainless doesnt expantd when hot? You learn something new every day!
No, that's not what I was saying. Steinless steel's specific strength doesn't drop of a cliff once reaching temperatures above 300 degrees like it is for aluminium and has a much higher melting point. This means that it tolerates imperfections in its heat tiles far more than the Shuttle and makes you able to MUCH faster replace heat tiles.

>>16448912
Orions heatshield isn't ablative.

>>16448915
I never agreed on that. I just agreed on that Miyazaki was a gullible retard for believing Starship would be fully developed in 2023.

>>16448913
there are no leftists here faggot, just some people using critical thinking and discussing serious concerns about the state of starship, and others arguing in bad faith because they dont want to hear the truth.

>>16448921
You're projecting hard.

If tile issues are insoluble SpaceX will simply buy Stoke and adapt their heatshield for Starship

>>16448919
You are trolling. Thanks for letting me know.
The Orion heatshield is made from Avcoat. Same material the Apollo shield was made from. How can this general be full of people who know so little about what they are allegedly interested in?

>>16448915
just read this post chain, are you retarded? or just pretending to be.

>>16448912
>Ablative heat shields are meant to ablate
It's meant to char layer by layer, not end up with chunks missing

>>16448923
Why would I not want Starship to succeed? I'm not a leftist and I think Musk is the greatest man alive. I want it to work which is whyI'm concerned about it.

>>16448928
Insane that almost 30 Billion USD and 18 years of development later and Orion still isn't crew rated.

>>16448929
you argue like a leftist kike. I don't believe you. You don't have a soul. The solar system will be better without you

>>16448928
Orion is single use, right?

>>16448929
>concern trolling
We're back in 2022 now? I thought you would have found a new stick by now.

>>16448925
Why aren't there any Starship vapes? Or other spaceflight themed smoking paraphernalia

>>16448927
You are retarded so there is no point trying to discuss things which you can't understand.

>>16448928
You don't need to school me on this. I know it didnt behave as they simulated it to, which is why they are worried. Point was it survived within safety margins. Lunar entry chews up heat shields, nothing new.

>>16448936
disgusting druggie. we would throw you to the phobosan penal colony on mars.

>>16448937
>safety margins
But it didn't survive within safety margins. That is the entire problem. NASA defines what the safety margin is, not you.

>>16448931
Ok buddy. Well I wasnt arguing with you, I was pointing out problems with the vehicle and with the attitude of people here. I know youare arguing with me though, which is kind of the problem. Discussion here is so low IQ its insane. (you) are part of the issue btw.
>>16448934
>anyone who disagrees is bad faith
crazy how the worl actually unctionswith people like you around.

>>16448944
>anyone who disagrees is bad faith
That is literally what you say here kek >>16448921

>>16448942
kek

>>16448945
you actually are trying to argue with me for no reason though kek. you arent interested in the truth.

>>16448948
whats the truth? Starship is going to fail in every way possible from now on?

>>16448948
>everyone who disagrees with me and points out by blatenly faulty reasoning and false claims isn't actually interested in the truth and only argue in bad faith

you're both gay

>the dutch faggot derails another thread
a sad sight to see

>>16448954
send him a tikkie for the disruption

>>16448939
>disgusting druggie

>>16448956
pretty wild that just in 4 years the Biden admin was able to turn all the tech libertarians into fascists

>>16448950
Truth is starship wont be fully or rapidly reusable for the next decade at least. Thats what ive been saying.
Artemis requires a turnaround of 2 weeks which is realistic, but daily turnaround is impossible, so Earth to Earth is impossible.
As it stands manned flights beyond LEO are also impossible because the shield can't withstand that. Musk said the biggest challenge is the heatshield, and it's true. Starship cannot do a manned trip to Mars and back with the shield it has,and cant even do dearmoon.

>>16448960
There's no truth here though. It's just the speculations from a retard that can't even get the most basic of facts correct.

>>16448960
The truth is you're just a bored dork trying to get some interaction from strangers on the internet, same as anyone else. You're just doing it in a gay way.

>>16448963
LMAO.
Ok, I'm done trying to tell you how it is. Just wait and watch.

>>16448960
so not fully or rapidly reusable, but 2 weeks is realistic? you mean it will be refurbished in 2 weeks and as such not be fully reusable?
and they won't neither fully reusablityt nor rapid reusability before 2034

>>16448968
You pseudo intellectuals sure are entertaining to see perform.

God I hate you. Yes, especially YOU

>>16448818
>>16448870

>>16448379
/sfg/: groundsit general

>>16448379
So when will they do a static fire of the first stage?

>>16448976
two weeks

Why has there never been a oxidizer rich staged combustion hydrolox engine? Based on what I know of how retardedly complicated the SSME's were I'd figure that oxidizer rich would be the way to go for the future but even the soviets went with fuel rich hydromeme, is there something I'm missing? Does hydrolox make way more heat than other mixes that not even soviet material scientists could handle?

>>16448979
hydrolox is gay

>>16448980
Yes but other than that

>>16448982
it gets very hot

>>16448979
Because fuel rich is simply easier than oxidixer rich for hydromeme engines.

>>16448816
It's usually the newer employees who don't realize his autism level. The flip side is he will never claim to remember that one time he chewed someone out. If someone demonstrates they know their shit and are ambitious they will have all the project autonomy they could ever want and will be accountable to nobody at the company other than him. There was an anecdote about a QA auditor getting into an argument with one of the Raptor engineers over not doing paperwork. When Elon learned of it he went off on the QA auditor. He was in meetings nearly every day with the Starship engineering team until 1:30am at one point and his presence at work stations is apparently so common workers just ignore him unless he has questions or gives orders. You can sort of see this in the Starbase tour video, they aren't at all surprised to see him when they go inside one of the bays.

>>16448984
Why? Wasn't one of the biggest problems with the SSME superheated hydrogen leaking along the turbo pump shaft into the oxygen lines and they needed a ridiculously overdesigned seal to stop that? Would oxidizer rich fix that problem completely?

>>16448801
so does mine!

>>16448990
>Would oxidizer rich fix that problem completely
And instead you now have hot oxygen corroding your engine from the inside! It's just an engineering trade off.

>>16448684
Not only could they power the propulsion and provide onboard electricity, they could heat the hot tub, the swimming pool and even the passengers directly from space.

>>16448992
Yeah but the soviets solved that, I understand why the americans never did it but why the soviets?

You know what does away with heat shields? Space elevators

>>16448869
>all these hallucinations
you're mentally ill

>>16448992
i wish i could get some hot oxygen to corrode my engine from the inside if you know what i mean

>>16448907
>entire foundation of argument is destroyed
>w-well you're a nerd!
>?
>retard acts retarded and doesn't notice
>musk promised
>musk set a deadline for themselves and made no pinky promise to terminally online redditors

you need to get help buddy.

>>16448993
comfy

>>16448994
Different priorities. The US saw hydromeme as the future while the USSR didn't. The USSR also had better material science when it came to developing exotic alloys and ablative materials than the US. The USSR also had more freedom in developing rocket engines because of the way design bureaus were structured. Glushko could get the funding and resources to develop a bazillion different engines while such a counterpart didn't exist in the US.

>>16448912
>NOOOOO THEY CANT DO INTERPLANETARY REENTRY BECAUSE I SAID SO
you're retarded

yesterday: elon has is involved in bribing people to vote
today: elon is colluding with putin to undermine america

they really really really do NOT want us leaving this planet

>>16448753
Future spacecraft will use pulsed raptors for RCS

>>16449005
More like he's having a major impact on the presidential election and they're pulling out all stops in a desperate attempt to try to decredit him.

>>16449003
I think the number of engines makes the soviet side more puzzling, they made quite a few hydromeme engines but always went fuel rich. You say it's just an engineering trade off but if thats the case then why did everyone who made a hydromeme engine make the same tradeoff?

>>16448954
this is the dutchfaggot falseflagging btw

>>16448769
I saw it, too

>>16448815
Yeah, it's great that Trump is ahead, but it's still a 1 in 3 chance of a really bad outcome

>>16448903
Best fit for why all of them were taken since all of them were likely exposed.

>>16448995
Elon, fire this guy.

>>16448472
Anyone have the screen shot?

Looks like ship 33 (first v2 ship) is headed to Massey's tomorrow for its first test fire

>>16449007
There's no benefit in using oxidizer rich over fuel rich in hydromeme engines. The later is simply easier to develop and has basically the same efficiancy and performance. Oxidizer rich when using oxygen is only used when you can't run fuel rich, like with kerolox engines.

>>16449021
But I just told you a benefit of using oxidizer rich over fuel rich.
Actually it's clear you don't know why and are just trying to present yourself as more knowledgably than you are.
Have a good day, I won't be responding to you again.

>>16449018
i may post in sfg everyday but i still dont know what the pre-launch activities are for starship and superheavy

>>16449023
haha, fag!

>>16449025
Would you like me/us to inform you? This will be an autist info dump

>>16449031
i'll forget it anyway

>>16449025
it's mostly just arguing with the FAA until they get a launch license

>>16449025
It's similar to car start-up.

>>16448827
Is Polymarket just people betting on random bullshit?

>>16449025
When the stack and destack loop starts you know that the ship will be soon be ready

>>16448818
they are dead. I'm calling it now.

>>16449031
do it

>>16448818
Probably too hard of a landing since one of the parachutes failed. Maybe fucked up one of their spines. Which is why we need stronger load bearing spines

Berger got word of some bad news...

Its over. One of the astronauts is on their death bed.

>>16449059
When? 2021?

>>16448818
Their bones must be jelly, lol.

>>16448509
>wtf Elon why doesn't Starlink work in Kursk?!

>>16449071
I live in a small farming town. The sort of place where, when the Mars city reaches a million people, their descendants will still live in the same doublewide on the same street. All around are grain silos, big metal cylinders about 30 feet across. I look at them and imagine the space inside, not holding grain against the elements, but instead everything needed to preserve me in the vacuum. I want to be out there

What dildo are you putting up your ass today? I use a B15 shaped one since it increases my chances of going to Mars.

fuck you

fuck you

https://x.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1849827397924733145

why do the astronomers get to run the show? they're always ragging on elon and spacex but the spaceflight community stays silent and never pushes back.

fuck yourself

>>16449090
they are irrelevant

>>16449075
Are they going to stack S31 on B13 for the next IFT or possibly reuse B12? it did catch on fire so maybe was damaged to the point is not worth risking it.

>>16449096
reusing B12 would delay Flight 6 probably assuming they wanted to reuse it at all

>>16449100
they will clearly never reuse it. were you around for the development of falcon 9?

>>16448304
All executive power rests in the President, so he could probably do that. Congress might get salty though because he'd be ignoring a fuck ton of their laws.
>>16448499
Did Trumps election break him or was he always a schizo?

>>16449102
didn't follow it as actively as Starship, but your point is that they didn't reuse them until multiple had been landed?
I agree its unlikely, but drawing automatic direct analogues to F9 and assuming they will do everything with Super Heavy program like they did with F9 doesn't make sense
IMO they will refly a Super Heavy much quicker than they flew a F9 for many reasons (for example, getting to reuse is an explicit priority now, they already have experience from F9 which is transferrable to Super Heavy)

>>16449096
booster 12 (and 13, 14 etc) all started construction so long ago (end of 2022, start of 2023) that they're outdated well before they even launch. I wouldn't expect any V1 boosters to be reflown more than once or twice ever

>>16449109
I agree they will refly superheavy quicker than f9, since its a critical priority.
But the first few will be ground tested and take apart for autopsies. I expect they wont refly hardware until mid to late 2025, probably with raptor 3 installed.

>>16448676
>>16448697
>>16448705
you made me look, and it's even more hilarious
it's an Elon Musk / Urusei Yatsura crossover (cross-breeding, rather)
>no Elon! NTR is supposed to be for Nuclear Thermal Rockets!

>>16449117
yeah

>>16449119
>someone drew a doujin of Elon Musk fucking Lum
This was probably commissioned by someone in /biz/'s stock market general.

>>16449117
yeah

>>16449136
>>16449121
Thats insane

fuck you

>>16449143

>>16449145
hey buddy I think you've got the wrong door, the suborbital thread's three pages down

thank you

come again

fuck you

/sfg/ - Schizo Frenia General

>>16449154
>>16449152
>>16449149
>>16449143
>>16449136
>>16449121
>>16449092
>>16449087
>>16449085
Janny?

>>16449159
Why are you mass replying like a twit?