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/sci/ - Science & Math


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1625770 No.1625770 [Reply] [Original]

Peak Oil: The End of Civilization as we know it?

Discuss

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells. The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time usually grows exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines sometimes rapidly until the field is depleted. This concept is derived from the Hubbert curve, and has been shown to be applicable to the sum of a nation’s domestic production rate, and is similarly applied to the global rate of petroleum production. Peak oil is often confused with oil depletion; peak oil is the point of maximum production while depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply.

As proactive mitigation may no longer be an option, a global depression is predicted, perhaps even initiating a chain reaction of the various feedback mechanisms in the global market that might stimulate a collapse of global industrial civilization, potentially leading to large population declines within a short period.

>> No.1625773

Fucking oil. We should use frogs instead.

>> No.1625778

>>1625770
THIS IS WAT GREENPIECE FOLOWERS ACTULLY BELIEF

>> No.1625782

There's no one peak. If oil production flags too much, the price of oil skyrockets. That spurs lots of investment in new well exploration, and we get a new peak.

>> No.1625791
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1625791

If price of oil skyrockets, then the population is fucked up. Chaos everywhere:

n the U.S., up to 20 percent of the country's fossil fuel consumption goes into the food chain which points out that fossil fuel use by the food system "often rivals that of automobiles". To feed an average family of four in the developed world uses up the equivalent of 930 gallons of gasoline a year - just shy of the 1,070 gallons that family would use up each year to power their cars.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/03/16/eco.food.miles/

>> No.1625803

>>1625782
And this can go on infinitely, right?

Might I direct you to this page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum#Formation

>> No.1625804

>>1625791
Yes, shit will get expensive. It's happened before. It's not a descent into chaos. Sorry.

>> No.1625805

Peak Oik is the end of American Civilization. The rest of the world will do just fine though.

>> No.1625808

>>1625803
It can go on for quite a long time. The higher the price gets, the more money there will be in the development of alternatives, and that's where alternatives will step in. Right now, natural gas and oil are ridiculously cheap because they are so plentiful, so that's why they're used so extensively. Changing that will be a very long process I think.

>> No.1625812

>>1625805
It will be the end of Arab civilization. It's their only export. America will do just fine. It doesn't even export the stuff.

>> No.1625828
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1625828

>>1625770

Some people will america will starve. Food prices will get insanely high for a period of time.

In some third world countries: mass starvation, famine, billions death.

>> No.1625854

>>1625812

LOL, America doesn't export Oil, but almost every product or service uses lots of oil. Almost all forms of modern technology actually petroleum products. Mass transportation and non-local industrial agriculture that are entirely dependent on abundant, cheap oil. Modern medicine, water distribution, and national defense are each entirely powered by oil and petroleum derived chemicals.

Hence why a lot of people will strife and die.

>> No.1625868

>>1625812
You're implying western countries don't take the majority of the profits from the oil.

>> No.1625872

>>1625854
No one's going to fucking die, you chattering chimp. Expensive oil doesn't mean no oil. When oil gets too expensive, people will start using more ethanol, and America is the biggest corn producer in the world.

>> No.1625876

>>1625868
They take the profits from the oil? That doesn't even make sense, except in some political non-meaning kind of talk.

>> No.1625900
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1625900

>>1625872

Food, services and other products prices will get insanely high, we are going to face a major depression, lots of people will die around the world.

Ethanol doesn't solve the crisis, check pic <-

Americans running shit on ethanol will lead to Third World people starving. It’s already pretty grim in Mexico, where the price of corn has skyrocketed.

"There's no absolute consensus in the scientific community, but that argument is losing strength. Michael Wang, a scientist at the Energy Dept.-funded Argonne National Laboratory for Transportation Research, says "The energy used for each unit of ethanol produced has been reduced by about half [since 1980]." Now, Wang says, the delivery of 1 million British thermal units (BTUs) of ethanol uses 0.74 million BTUs of fossil fuels. (That does not include the solar energy -- the sun shining -- used in growing corn.) By contrast, he finds that the delivery of 1 million BTUs of gasoline requires 1.23 million BTU of fossil fuels. [This sounds like a sales pitch. We knew oil had to be refined to produce gasoline. The energy to make ethanol is coal (global warming) and natural gas (very hard to import once domestic supplies run out). The "argument" is not losing strength. Rather, junk science is harder for the media to discern. Ed.]

"Producing ethanol could get more efficient soon as new technologies help farmers get more corn per acre of land and allow ethanol producers to get more of the fuel from the same amount of corn... "

>> No.1625913

>>1625770

I hope this doesn't mean chemical engineers will not be needed as much or at all.

It would make the degree I'm getting useless.

>> No.1625938
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1625938

our current food regime is highly dependent on oil (fertilizers can only be created by oil, since nitrogen only breaks up at a temp. only oil and the heat of volcanoes, the sun, etc. can reach). oil is the impetus for our commodity food system. When traveling up the trophic levels (food chain) (bacteria -> single cell organisms, -> plant life -> animals [meat]) each trophic level uses 90% of the energy gathered from the previous trophic level to just keep the organism alive. 10% of the energy consumed goes to the organism's growth, and thus goes up the food chain (trophic levels). There simply isn't enough energy in this world to feed 6-9 billion when they are all consuming food high on the food chain, as each level makes the energy transfer exponentially inefficient. the world's hunger for meat (and thus exponentially more oil to grow an exponentially more ecologically expensive food) is dooming us. I don't know how we are going to get away from oil... it seems the venture capitalistic system (or at least the current food regime) must collapse first, and the time may be coming shortly.

>> No.1625944

lol. there will be another peak oil.


after the future US-China war, the victor shall claim the south china sea.
the spratly islands is said to be full oil of but it's a contested area.

>> No.1625948
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1625948

>my face when I'll be living in Sweden where they don't run any of their power plants on coal and are planning to ban petrol and diesel vehicles

>> No.1625953
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1625953

>>1625944

what scares me is what happening between Israel-Iran and US+South Korea-North Korea+China

>> No.1625958

>>1625948
Too bad:
1)Its impossible to get into sweden
2)finland is better anywho

>> No.1625961

At beggining of this century, horse-shit problem in cities was thought to be imposible to solve.
Suddenly, the car appeared.
Apocalypse is not going to happen yet...

>> No.1625962

>>1625948
I wish I lived in sweden :(

>> No.1625964
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1625964

>>1625958
>1)Its impossible to get into sweden
NOT IF YOU HAVE BOSNIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CITIZENSHIP

>> No.1625967

>>1625964
Fuck you, i'll be living in finland

>> No.1625972

>>1625828

and nothing of value was lost

>> No.1625973

Firstly, oil can be sourced from other areas. Secondly, if we just reduce consumption so that we always consume less than what we produce everything can go on just fine. It might mean tightening our belts and changing the way we see transportation, etc... but with good governance and a sensible population we can overcome the peak oil crisis.

>with good governance and a sensible population

Shit, just realised, we're fucked....

>> No.1625985

>>1625953
israel and iran will end up in a minor war.
china, russia and north korea vs us, some nato allies and some major non nato allies will be the major war.

south china sea and korean peninsula will be the battle ground.

>> No.1626010
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1626010

>mfw I'll be here in Russia starving to death

>> No.1626025

> tightening our belts and changing the way we see transportation
Good Luck With That

>> No.1626027
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1626027

Peak oil is often confused with oil depletion.

THE CASE IS: Human society is going to change, A LOT. Famine, hunger, lots of changes.

>CONSEQUENCES WILL NEVER BE THE SAME

>> No.1626049

>>1625900
>Americans running shit on ethanol will lead to Third World people starving

>implying they aren't starving already

>> No.1626054
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1626054

Yes, shit will get crazy once the world realizes we're running out. A few years of crazy prices on everything, guys in suits jumping off buildings, maybe even a war or two. And yea, a lot of brown people on the other side of the planet will die.

But we'll also see a massive amount of research and new energy options spring up, as whoever invents the best one will get super rich. Like owning his own country rich. A bunch of different energy options are available now, they just get shot down by the oil guys who run almost everything. New energy is expensive too, and will be after the oil drop off, but once the turmoil settles the world will even out again.

And some guy/company will get massively stupid fucking rich.

>> No.1626075
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1626075

GET GUNS.