/sci/ - Science & Math

God I hope so

>>16239426
>Is it over?
Not at all, as your graph shows, the fun is only getting started

>>16239426
Don't worry, I'm sure things will turn around any day now! https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1704949114

>>16239426
As always, the innocent suffer the most.

>Inequalities based on wealth and social status have worsened due to climate change. Major difficulties in mitigating, adapting to, and recovering from climate shocks are faced by marginalised people who have less control over resources. Indigenous people, who are subsistent on their land and ecosystems, will face endangerment to their wellness and lifestyles due to climate change. An expert elicitation concluded that the role of climate change in armed conflict has been small compared to factors such as socio-economic inequality and state capabilities.

>While women are not inherently more at risk from climate change and shocks, limits on women's resources and discriminatory gender norms constrain their adaptive capacity and resilience. For example, women's work burdens, including hours worked in agriculture, tend to decline less than men's during climate shocks such as heat stress.

>>16239426
It's only getting started. Neither the sun or the Earth are getting any younger, their best years are already behind them. It's only downhill from here for our climate as the sun's luminosity increasing and our plate tectonics/magnetic field shuts off.

>>16239481
okay sure but the more immediate impact is the billions of tons of co2 we're constantly blasting into the atmosphere, the collapse of agriculture, and the mass extinction of most multicellular life in the very near term

>>16239484

Source?

>>16239426
Temperature increase isn't the only factor contributing to mass extinctions. Great Dying and Cretaceous-Paleogene EE were caused by flood volcanism (look up Siberian and Deccan Traps) that also released huge amounts of sulfur oxides, hydrogen sulfide and other nasty shit, which is obviously toxic to life.
Another thing of note is that RCP8.5 scenario is rather unlikely - it assumes increasing use of coal and other fossil fuels throughout the rest of this century, which I'm highly sceptical of (not because people are going to change their habits, but simply because their EROI is decreasing - where I live we have plenty of coal, but its extraction has been unprofitable for quite some time now; it's too deep and too hot).
That's not to say that the situation we're in isn't grave - it absolutely is. But it's not a reason to spread hopelesness and information void of context.

>>16239495
https://medium.com/@kconne/the-scientific-case-for-near-term-human-extinction-nthe-reviewing-the-evidence-2e5b8a12da26

>>16239497
it doesn't necessarily matter if we increase or decrease GHG emissions - the worst case "warming in the pipeline" scenario from what has already been emitted could put us at 10C by 2100 (https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889))

>>16239426

Time will tell.

>>16239497
The RCP4.5 scenario is also depicted in the graph, and is more or less equally unlivable.

>>16239504
>the worst case "warming in the pipeline" scenario from what has already been emitted could put us at 10C by 2100
Have you even read the paper you're linking?
>Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10°C, which is reduced to 8°C by today’s human-made aerosols. Equilibrium warming is not ‘committed’ warming; rapid phaseout of GHG emissions would prevent most equilibrium warming from occurring.
Besides, it can take millennia to reach ECS and ESS. Instead of reading sensationalist articles (the medium one - Hansen et al. is credible), read the actual papers and discuss them with people in the field.
>inb4 tipping points
These also take time (ice sheets take time to melt, permafrost to thaw, forests to burn etc.) and you should read the papers to understand them.
>>16239511
Unlivable for who? Global warming is not an uniform process - some regions will suffer less, some will suffer more. While the overal trend will continue, it's not the same all over the world.

>>16239456
>>16239426
>>16239445
the problem is people keep talking about this like it's some bad sci-fi disaster movie, like it's fiction, but fascinatingly entertaining at the same time, the possibility of disaster, but never actually feeling it hit, the fear, the panic, that this is not a sci-fi plot, that this is real-life, happening, and that if our models are grossly underestimating what is coming, sometimes because not even the climate scientists themselves believe the most extreme projections and assume there must be hidden errors in the models, someplace, because the alternative is incomputable or acceptable to the human mind, the potential for near total and simultaneous crop and fish stocks collapse worldwide is very real, and then we're all going to be eating each other alive.
Like someone once said...
>When the last tree is cut, the last fish is caught, and the last river is polluted; when to breathe the air is sickening, you will realize, too late, that wealth is not in bank accounts and that you can’t eat money.
- Alanis Obomsawin

>>16239426
Global warming is earth-chan's massive asshole braping too much, making it stinky and sweaty

>>16239426
lol

>>16239426
Bruh. Warming after the Younger Dryas was like 5 C in a few decades.

>>16239478
Fuck off, weakness doesn't make you innocent. And women drive most consumption in the west. It's a waste of time and pointless partisanship to bring up irrelevant things like this.

>>16239582
>Unlivable for who?
The ecosystem collapses alone will kill most people via famine and the ensuing violence.

>>16239426
Not over but we really need to do more.

>>16241064
You need meds, trust me.

>>16241064

Won't happen. Keep dreaming doomer. Get some meds and go touch grass.

>>16241064
That's beyond doubt, but again - it's not an uniform process. Some areas are more resilient than others - use the time you have left to increase resilience of your local area instead of spreading hopelessness online.

>>16239426
It's not over yet! Albeit it's very close to being over for humanity. On an evolutionary time scale that is.

1c increase
5c increase extrapolated
rofl

>>16239426
we will all be dead by the time this could possibly even matter. Also incorrect use of extrapolation is cringe

>>16239426
the solution is simple: clouds. big beautiful clouds that block out the sun.

it will cost $5 billion a year to create Big Beautiful Clouds. that's slightly less than the combined wages of every environmental scientist and specialist in the US. With the climate fixed, we can fire those people and save money in the long run.

>>16240942
>lol
This but unironically: it lacks all sense of proportionality. I'd like to elaborate but then some anon will just respond with ''ok Shell''. There's so much brain rot here that people can only regurgitate memes.

>>16239426
I mean if you project the trend, we can expect no extinction in RCP 8.5

>>16239426
We just need to do a little Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, we'll be fine. Unless we start terraforming earth to fix this, we won't be able to do so outside our planet

>>16242463
marine cloud brightening and cloud seeding is superior. cheaper and it's easier to sell the idea since Aerosol is a scary word