/sci/ - Science & Math

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/s/zXXp211hWg
ift4 g-force mapped

>>16226142
Fuck off

fuck urf

>the chinese will own the moon by the end of the decade
how do we stop them bros?

moon edition?
moon edition

Its a funny, slightly space related OP and its 'spaceflight' so Ill let it slide

Vaya Space is claiming that their HDPE/LOX proonted-grain hybrid engines top out over 350s ISP. If true ([X] doubt) that'd be enough for RTLS.

>>16226179
hopefully it will stop this from becoming /emg/

>>16226184
>if true

>>16226185
Based cult rejector

>>16226184
literally who?

Anyone got the good questions from the elon Q & A? Only thing I know is new tiles are ablative under the surface

>>16226206
Here's a whole thread
https://x.com/NosVemosEnM4rte/status/1799962142910960112

>>16226142
>Spaceflight General
I like rockets

>>16226199
digits observed

>>16226224
>>>/pol/

>>16226230
Tapering rockets are kino

>>16226240
ye

>>16226232
Good man
>>16226206
>>16226208
>>>/tv/
>>16226157
we don't

Why do we let the black knight park in orbit and do nothing about it

>>16226240
>>16226247
Dorsal chuds will never understand

Starship MSR is now officially a contender. JPL in sambles.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasa-is-commissioning-10-studies-on-mars-sample-return-most-are-commercial/

>>16226202
Some small startup. I found them completely by accident when I was searching for more details on vortex flow hybrid rockets.

>>16226247
>>16226240
I don't like them, they look like skyscrapers which implies they're about to shake to pieces under thrust.

>>16226279
>Musk has famously missed schedule predictions
Why doesn't he highlight the fact that Boeing/Lockheed/etc have all missed deadlines in the past for all their projects?

Whats with the singular gaslight?

>>16226287
It's not a Berger piece so it's the usual Farts Technica EDS.

>>16226269
a couple reasons
1.) no one but the PLA has real ASAT
2.) black knight is fake and gay

>>16226289
Clark is new and hasnt really pushed anti-Musk in the past. But it seems like some of the language is sneaking in

>>16226289
Ars Technica more like Arse Technica
lmao

How the mighty has fallen...

>>16226287
>Lockheed missed deadlines for all their projects
Musk worship is a mental illness

>>16226287
its unclear if the article is talking about actual schedule deadlines missed or musk just speculating out loud about futurism. I'm confused because the latter he is famous for, the former not so much

This has to be old news but I recently heard that blue origin claimed spacex is infringing their patents for ISS missions and wanted to suspend operations, can anyone spoonfeed me what the fuck that was about? That's even more insane than claiming a patent on barge landings or halting work on HLS

>>16226305
Speculating out loud has consequences when you get contracts to develop on those speculations. Crew Dragon was 5 years late based on that metric. Standard for a space contract, but not untrue for someone to point out

>>16226303
>I-i-it's not over bros

>>16226309
Yeah but it says missed schedule predictions

Ok take this for example. Elon just said on stream he thinks starship will go to mars in 3 years. Is that a schedule? Is that a deadline? I don't see how it can be, there's no mission, there's no contract. Then everyone does backflips when 2027 rolls around and starship isn't on mars, when no customer or investor was waiting for it.

I get egg on his face for missing contract deadlines. It's a contract. But I think nasa is intelligent enough to realize his candid speculation doesn't mean shit and if they want something by a certain date they put it in writing. Beyond that I dont know what consequences you speak of

>>16226312
Speculation itself is more ambiguous. Sure, with that "Mars by 2027" crap he didn't really set a hard deadline, but it wouldn't be unfair to point out that he's known for exaggerating the company's speed of production either since statements like that can factor into who ends up getting the contract. That's why more well established contractors like Lockheed Martin make conservative/realistic estimates and follow through on them consistently.
Take the Crew Dragon example I provided. SpaceX got that contract in 2014 partially because Musk claimed in 2011 that they'd be ready for crewed flights within 3 years (sound familiar?). Not only was the project then given an initial deadline of 2017, but his first revision also said it would be ready by 2018. It wasn't ready until 2020. This isn't to say that SpaceX shouldn't get the next contract, you just also can't really hold it against someone to point out this pattern

>>16226308
All I know is that bald loser and his chode shaped rockets will never even sniff lunar orbit

>>16226287
>>16226279
It's ironic because Elon's predictions have been pretty accurate for the last two Starship launches.

How am I supposed to believe starship is going to mars when they didnt make this happen?

>>16226157
Why do you want to stop them? If I was a mutt id rather to see a chinese flag on the moon over LGBT and BLM ones

>>16226333
fuck off vatnik

I'm doing my part!

>>16226333
fuck off chang

>>16226333
>trips of truth
but also
>>>/pol/

>>16226339
>>16226344
at least change your posts and be a bit more original if you're gonna samefag

>>16226321
>you just also can't really hold it against someone to point out this pattern.
This is a pattern in space and not just elon.
He's singled out for being uniquely famous for it. The way I imagine it works is nasa looks at your cards, they estimate what they think you can execute, then set an unrealistic deadline to make you move quicker. They also do this internally with themselves. The first crew flight was supposed to be 2015 and both spacex and boing were on the hook for that and they told nasa they could do it. I don't know why boing and bezos aren't more "famous" than elon especially because boing got to the finish line just other day years later, there's the whole SLS saga. Bezos rockets are no where to be seen, but at least they delivered those engines years late. And there's hundreds of stories I don't know about because I follow spaceflight with the corner of my eye. Everything artemis is late. It might just be easier to count the miracles that were on time

>>16226359
>>16226321
>This is a pattern in space and not just elon.
Yep. Thats my point about singling out Musk when its basically the standard. The so called "Elon time" is just a meme that seemed to attribute to Elon mainly due to his popularity but its just a standard delay in spaceflight industry that all major space companies suffers from.

>>16226358
retard

>>16226367
It's because he does similar things with Tesla so people just assume he's lying.

How many tanker flights to the depot does starship need to go to mars?

>>16226375
However many it takes to fill up one Starship, so I think four.

>>16226377
its 8-15 to fill moonship though. I mean I've heard so many damned numbers I shouldn't be posting them, but I've never heard 4

>>16226375
We dont know the capacity of the mars starship
we dont know the capacity of the tanker starship
we dont know about orbital refueling depots

>>16226385
thats my boy

>>16226383
IIRC Moonship needs more tankers because it can't aerobrake on arrival.

>>16226389
It will also have to takeoff from the Moon

>>16226371
like you

>>16226157
pretty sure there's an American (German) flag on the moon for 50 years

>>16226279
>when I was searching for more details on vortex flow hybrid rockets
why are you researching obscure rocket engine types??

>>16226389
what is aerobraking like on mars? Is the really thin atmosphere enough? better than earth?

>>16226436
Yes the thin atmosphere is enough but it doesn't brake quite as much as on Earth so the landing burn has to be longer

now that raptor reliability, heatshiled durability, and long term cryogenic fuel storage issues have been all but solves, how many months before they send a Starship for Mars?

>>16226443
>long term cryogenic fuel storage
Literally, unironically, and in all other ways a solved problem.

>chinese astronauts get stranded on the moon
>president harris bans the newly nationalized spacex from sending a rescue starship
what do?

>>16226459
Go back to /pol/, you piece of shit.

>>16226459
WE GAAN

>nasa's orion has heatshield problem
>it takes years to fix it

>starship has heatshield problems
>uhh lets just swap it in few days, also do all other modifications which may take a month in total

>/sfg/ is such woke infested thread
Thank you for telling me about this place from that SpaceX thread on /pol/.

>>16226459
The Changstronauts will use solar radiation to cook rice into a coffin, pickle themselves for preservation, encase themselves in the rice coffin, then apply ancient accupuncture to their pressurized suits to provide thrust back to erf.

>>16226157
>how do we stop them bros?

>>16226534
Now on to you...

Why you let HIM in?

https://x.com/DrPhiltill/status/1799998149656011023

Thread about heatshield tiles

>will replace all the heat tiles with one that is double as strong for the next flight
>ablative protection underneath will act as secondary heatshield layer will be added as well
>next flight in about a month, will attempt tower catch
>Starship florida launch in 2025

>>16226552
That's stupid, how are they going to replace the ablative shield after every flight if it's under the main tiles?

>>16226565
Its an extra protection if the heatshield tile falls off

>>16226456
Basically solved for everything except hydrogen.
People say cryogenic propellant has never been stored in orbit but they forget not all cryogenic props are made equal.

>>16226329
This was killed by JPL
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26270977

>>16226568
i.e. its not supposed to ablate away during normal operations, just a backup

>>16226573
Elon PROMISED Halcon heavy launches to Mars every launch window on his own dime. Btw dude had 44 billion sloshing around and chose to buy a social media platform isntead of reserving 1/200th of it to do a mars mission..

>>16226582
spacex isn't bottlenecked by cash it's bottlenecked by engineering hours

>>16226581
There goes another 10 tons capacity. What are we at now? 30 tons to LEO? 20?

>>16226582
It wasn't taking crew so I don't care.

>>16226589
buy more engineers then?

>>16226596
That would probably make iteration slower

>>16226604
all you have to do is develop propulsive landing which they were already doing, and hire flight controllers to hang around observing the flght for 2 years.

>>16226582
Grow up, promises mean nothing.

>>16226582
He got overtly threatened by a senator.

>>16226613
who?

>>16226616
You think that would be public record? Did you even read the link you originally replied to? I have my guesses either way

>>16226616
Shelby if previous incidents are anything to go by.

>>16226621
yeah that was my guess actually

What do you think about Perun's video on Starship?

>>16226650
Reasonably well researched and fair. Pretty sure he's a space nerd as well as military.

>>16226650
his nasal voice is annoying so I haven't watched it yet

>>16226650
It was good. I was so satisfied when he busted out the BryceTech graph.
>"But the potential for geopolitical competition beyond Earth's orbit is very much a topic unto itself. And one we will look at in the next episode of this series."

>>16226573
You got anymore spicy internal nasa politicing rumors?
I'd like to get a sense of the factions at play.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1800129599273406820

>>16226672
Wish we had a pic of the ship just before soft landing. Though it will happen sooner or later.
Given Elon's answer, I guess they don't have one either.

>>16226700
Starship was 6 km off on the splashdown so I doubt whoever they sent out to watch the landing could see it.

>>16226552
>>16226565
I saw somewhere its a silicone felt. I guess it replaces the white fabric they have under the tiles now?

>>16226708
that would make a lot of sense if it was possible
maybe not that bad of a mass penalty then

>>16226663
pretty good though, i dont find the sarcasm as grating as others here

>>16226157
Go to Mars

>>16226650
>>16226661
>>16226668
you will never be a woman and ukraine will never win, Perun.

>>16226525
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out nigger

>>16226725
Is that why /chug/trannies like yourself constantly have to cry “russia is winning” at every oppertunity like some deranged mantra?

Doesn’t really sound like confidence to anyone outside looking in, seems more like you’re trying to convince yourself than anyone else.
Also clap clap for the vatnig bringing up ukraine when the topic was starship.

Go back please

https://youtu.be/effFp6AnCWo?si=DNsyBls9rpLRvFZB&t=2207

>>16226247
The Saturn V was a thing of beauty. You guys ever see Apollo 11 - the doc made entirely from real footage? They had one of the best launch sequences ive ever seen. great sound track over it too. 'In the Shadow of the Moon" did well too.

>>16226725
>2 more weeks to Kiev!

https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/1800155605212266860

https://spacenews.com/assured-space-and-phantom-space-seek-to-disrupt-data-backhaul-business/

>>16226743
>>16226752
dilate shills.

>>16226142
We love luna!

What do you guys think is going to happen to all the 'astronomers' complaining about starlink light pollution when there are 2 or 3 other constellations by china and companies that may or may not be run by unpopular billionaires?
Will they continue to complain about what is now obviously the status quo? give up the fight? keep complaining but only about spacex?

>>16226765
terrestrial astronomy for deep space objects will die, all powerful telescopes will have to be in space

>>16226751
I can't find it now but I remember a video that was a single tracking shot of the saturn V launch with radio chatter played in the back.
It captured the stressfullness of being in charge of those men's safety while they sit inside a giant experimental machine in a way that videos with jump cuts just don't. Even knowing the ending it makes you realize that those men talking don't.

>>16226783
it was something else man, amazing times. What you're talking about remind of Gene Krantz book.

>>16226765
>keep complaining but only about spacex
This one. Activists only care about things when they think they have the power to influence others' behavior.

>>16226764

>>16226772
>all powerful telescopes will have to be in space
or suffer the consequences

>>16226725
TZD

>>16226755
Good luck bro, I sure hope you have a few tens of billions of dollars for the spectrum allocation in the US alone

This probably hinges on SpaceX getting OFDM approved by the FCC to muscle in on other spectrum it didn't pay for exclusivity on. That precedent will be huge.

>>16226765
I don't think you realize how influential they can be. The Dark Skies initiative has been going on for longer than you've probably been alive. The only problem is, we're looking at a tragedy of the commons situation and nobody has a financial incentive to go dark for science.

Astronomers will have to start taking into account existing constellation tracks while planning observations. It's done right now for wildly different reasons (astronomers track asteroid occultations of stars) they just need to adapt this to use data from an object tracking database. Some stars may become permanently unobservable if they require long exposures, but convolution may help.

>>16226810
I think the point is to compete with starlinks laser-to-laser backhaul which spacex is starting to offer as a module to satellite manufacturers, not a direct competitor with starlink in general
though it seems they want to do this through radio instead of lasers so might need spectrum still
perhaps they can put the starlink lasers on these and then use the radio to communicate with legacy satellites that don't have the laserlinks yet and in that way give better communications and coverage to current satellties
basically be a intermediate link between starlink and the customer satellite

>SAN FRANCISCO – Assured Space Access announced a strategic partnership with Phantom Space to establish Phantom Cloud, a data-backhaul service for satellites.
>Under the agreement, Chandler, Arizona-based Assured Space will design and build radio frequency communications payloads for the 66-satellite Phantom Cloud constellation. The partners also will work together to design, develop, launch and operate the new constellation.
>“We want to be complementary to what Starlink is doing,” Cantrell said. “We want to focus more on the machine rather than the human-to-human market. That’s a perfect place for a relatively small constellation of satellites.”

Have you even seen a rocket launch in person?

>>16226824
no

>>16226824
I've seen amateur rockets launch in person

>>16226824
i launched an Estes polystyrene Space Shuttle once. it used to glide back down in a long slow spiral. pretty cool

>>16226824
every 4th of July :^)

>>16226824
I've launched model rockets (don't laugh).

>>16226835
model rockets are no laughing matter

>>16226838
Very true

>>16226765
Simple. We build more space telescopes. A commercial company could fill the demand, and starship will enable cheap high mass space telescopes which could be mass manufactured using cheaper materials to cut costs. You could put up a dozen or so Hubble+ class telescopes and customers rent time on them for observations.

I'm surprised no one has thought about doing this yet. If only I had got an engineering degree instead of wasting time on a cyber security degree I will never use I might have done it myself.

>>16226839
that must have been painful, I've seen what those motors do to my launchpad.

>>16226842
Bandwidth issues could easily be solved with laser comm, utilizing starlink for data transfer instead of radio and DSN like James Webb. Why haven't I thought about this sooner? Muskman is literally enabling a new era of space telescopes with his autism.

>>16226839
that seems foolish

>>16226705
Did they even bother sending anyone out?

>>16226873
They did for super heavy, presumably they would for starship too.

>>16226873
presumably there was a private plane flying there during reentry, there might be footage

>>16226824
god. remember when it was f9 v1.0 vs antares for iss resupply. imagine if antares had won out.

musk has a magnetic effect where after hearing him talk about mars for any length of time I become prepared to kill rape and die for the mission. He is like Hitler in that respect.

>>16226819
>Phantom Cloud
Pffffft it just hit me what this is about, at least to my conspiracy minded brain. Starlink is off-limits for military use (except where it isn't) but they are absolutely lusting over the capability.

In comes an intermediary, who in essence are going to be Starlink resellers: oops, how did that military traffic get in there?

>>16226426
no reason

>>16226891
there is starshield so something what you describe is kind of pointless

>>16226886

>>16226895
Starshield is US exclusive

>>16226902
I think other countries would just launch their equivalent.

>>16226902
you mean some adversial countries would use phantom cloud as some kind of backdoor to use starlink for the military? seems kind of far fetched and easy to stop when its found out

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvBXUlwLQ08
>Looking Ahead To The Next Starship Flight ALREADY | Starbase Update

Listen.
Its just not not possible to build a super heavy lift vehicle for 50 million a piece a reusable one at that.
We've all seen the SLS - the pinnacle of rocket technology with the most advance rocket boosters and engines optimized to the very physical limits of expendability.
We know it will cost upward of 2 billion dollars per flight. We know: we have to accept it. That is the price to pay for such power and capability.
And that is for a simple traditional system that focuses on cost effectiveness by utilizing as much as possible readily available parts.
We also know the Space Shuttles, of which only few were built and operated over a period of thirty years
simply because they were so advanced and so expensive the United States of America couldn't afford to build more.
These, despite being reusable, costed upward of 1.5 billion dollars per flight.
Lets be real, lets be honest: space is hard and rockets are not cheap.
Comical statements that "it will cost 50 million" simply have no basis in reality so let us leave them outside of it.

>>16226912
(You)

>>16226912
It's been a long time since I've seen this pasta.

>>16226881
I'd have a lot more launches to watch though

https://x.com/mcrs987/status/1800189756346954224

>>16226922
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BOObGhg36c

>>16226912
this is what spacefag5 sincerely believes

>>16226931
A reminder that spaceguy5 works at Marshall and SLS is their baby, Starship is a direct threat to his employment.

>>16226925

>>16226939
look at that bad ass flap giving absolutely no fucks.

https://x.com/Erdayastronaut/status/1800197626345963861

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZligwZMODU
>Starship Flight 4 // 4k Slow Mo & Clean Audio

Does the ships having an ablative udnecoating mean a columbia style loss of vehicle is impossible? and how much would that weigh? Musk ahs said previously that ablative was too heavy to use.

Wait so Ship 29 survived reentry with the crappy old heatshield?

>>16226953
yes

>>16226952
Presumably the ablative coating will be thin as it won't need to survive a full reentry.

If SpaceX can get the chance of loss of crew to 1 in 270 for Starship, does this mean they can fly people on it?

>>16226952
>impossible
no

>>16226961
Legally yes although I think they'd want to get it way lower than that.

>>16226961
Would you ride a roller coaster where 1 in 270 riders end up dead?

>>16226965
>what is joining the military

>>16226157
>the chinese will own the moon by the end of the decade
just a hunch, but I believe there's plenty enough room on the moon for multiple countries to host outposts there

>>16226957
but if the tile comes off during launch then it would need to survive the whole entry

>>16226824
I saw STS-131 and a Titan 4b go up

>>16226965
If the possibility is there that j go to space? Sure

>>16226965
does it do a loop de loop?

>>16226965
the risk-reward calculus is different

>>16226979
Ya but like all real estate, some bits are highly desirable, while a lot is kinda useless. I sure hope China tries to assert sovereignty over Shackelton crater. The US' spaceflight budget would literally go to the moon.

>>16226943
kinograph

https://x.com/MrBlackmore4096/status/1799873339843879087

ramping up payload related engineering I guess

>>16226997
>The US' spaceflight budget would literally go to the moon.
lol

>>16226999
birb

>>16226886
I thought it was just me

Speaking of space sovereignty, since the outerspace treaty bans country from making territorial claims, would all space colonies be independent? Would be an easy way to get around the outerspace treaty.

>>16227001
Ah but have you considered sacry moon commies?

>>16227009
you can just ignore the treaty

>>16226824
yes
I can see them from my backyard, although I'm not close enough to hear them

>>16227009
>outer space treaty
The US and China are going to tear that thing in half and wipe their asses with it. If one or the other is way behind in Moon/Mars bases, they might do some kvetching about it, but that's about it. No one else is in a position to enforce the treaty.

>>16227018
>>16227014
The US if anything has doubled down on it with the artemis accords.

>>16226897
imagine leaving this planet... and then choosing to come back

>>16227017
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT THAT'S SO MESSED UP
this video is highly amusing and mildly unnerving to me and I do not understand why

>>16227021
those can and will be changed when it is beneficial or ignored entirely (i.e. USA would just retract from the agreement)

we should have a capital punishment method that consists of putting someone under a rocket as it launches
i volunteer

>>16226903
>just build your own globe spanning satellite megaconstellation
>it's only been done once in all of human history, but it can't be that hard
sure, guatemala will get right on that

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scmu9IcyK5k
more starliner content, you love to see it!

>>16226943
did the estronaut post his Elon interview yet? I didn't see it

>>16227025
After all those countries signed it I think it would be taken as something of a betrayal for the one pushing it to suddenly back out the moment it's convenient.
You'd never get people to work with the US in space again.

>>16227032
no, still waiting for approval from jannies

>>16227014
I do this every day

>>16227033
lol, USA would just say the situation has changed, if USA is the dominant leader in space then do other countries even have a choice?
you could also have de-facto territories but no actual de-jure claims, an "international" moon base controlled by the US

>>16226999
I feel like pitching immediately might not be great for the ground infrastructure.

>>16227037
>do other countries even have a choice?
Yes, they can side with china if they're pissed off enough.
>you could also have de-facto territories but no actual de-jure claims
This is basically what I said before, officially independent colonies that have strong ties to their host nations (I.e being able to vote in their source countries elections etc)

>>16226824
I saw a couple shuttles, falcon 9, and falcon heavy
Hoping to see florida starship in the next year or 2

>>16227021
The Artemis Accords declare everyone outside them (i.e. China) to be fair game. The US Constitution still allows the creation of privateers and the US has not joined any anti piracy treaties. We will see American space pirates in a mix of surplus military hardware, eBay special SpaceX ships, and stolen enemy craft raiding everything even vaguely Chimese above the Karman Line.

>>16227009
>space will finally abolish the government

>>16227051
>The Artemis Accords declare everyone outside them (i.e. China) to be fair game.
lol no they don't

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OY_8HWeoV80
>WOW!! SpaceX Makes History AGAIN With Starship's Successful 4th Flight - SpaceX Weekly #118

>>16227043
>Yes, they can side with china if they're pissed off enough.
>just give up 99.99% of your capability

Starliner confirmed for piss pig.

>>16227058
there is no way spacex will ever dominate china. china could have launch parity with spacex if they were actually building their megaconstellation right now.

>>16227060

>>16227059

>>16227058
Presumably in this scenario if USA feels the need to shred the artemis accords then chinese capabilities have grown have grown substantially.

>>16227067
lmao

>>16227058
It's not a smart move to bet the US will be ahead from now till the end of time. Especially if that bet involves pissing off your allies.

>>16227060

>>16227059
pontificate the aroma

>>16227073
>It's not a smart move to bet the US will be ahead from now till the end of time.
This just comes down to: Do you bet against Starship?
If there is Starship, then the US will be the foundation of humanity's presence in space. Everything else will either be at the discretion of SpaceX or so insignificant as to be wholly irrelevant. The Chinese will be the Sentinelese of the 31st century.

https://x.com/DJSnM/status/1800218763968856090

>>16227060
>there is no way spacex will ever dominate china.
This anon has been in a coma for the past ten years.

https://x.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1800198027073970631

https://x.com/Ringwatchers/status/1800218116372185165
>Raptor Diagram #9 | 10th June, 2024 | "The era of easy raptor tracking is over."

https://ringwatchers.com/diagrams/raptor-diagrams/9

>>16227096

>>16227101

>>16227104
>Updates since last diagram:
> R155 Seen scrapped at Hawthorne
> R269, R319, R368, R390 and R398 Installed on S30
> R378 Installed on S30 and then later removed
> R321, R327, R328, R330, R334, R346 and R352 Spotted at McGr

>>16226824
i was at ift-1, both the scrub and the launch. a very good time for sure

Reminder that von Braun was an observant and outspoken Christian, especially when he was doing his best work
>God Touches the Heart of a Scientist through Gideons’ Bible Ministry
https://www.christiantoday.com/article/god.touches.the.heart.of.a.scientist.through.gideons.bible.ministry./913.htm

>>16227059
>NASA found the piss module

Where the fuck is Raptor 3

>>16227115
current christians don't even think space is real

>>16227122
probably years away

>>16227084
Thats complete nonsense logic, you don't have to bet against starship, what you have to do it bet against anyone ever matching or exceeding starship forever.
I wouldn't make such a bet.

>>16227088
nice but starlink is launching cell service in few months, so its not "have to wait for starlink" that he's trying to gaslight

Elon Musk is a scam artist

>>16227130
How long will it take them to do that?
Where will SpaceX be by that time?
The answer to the first is "Too long."
The answer to the second is "Too far."

musk says 1 month to next flight so see you in august-september

>>16227139
I am reminded that truman thought the same thing about the soviets getting the bomb.
That bet didn't work out so good.

>>16227142

>>16227067
pure bs, russian side also recycles water from urine.

>>16227143
That would have been perfectly true if they had done anything.
Thankfully, as we've all seen, SpaceX is not the type to just sit around.

>>16227126
That's because in von Braun's day there was still enough wiggle room to genuinely believe; his belief in souls was essentially rooted in conservation laws. Nowadays the Big Bang is about the only cope they have left.

>>16227147
how much would a liter of piss cost on mars?

>>16227126
>God created the stars and the heavens
Its on the first page of The Bible

>>16227143
Hell you don't even have to make an analogy to someone else. Elon scoffed at BYD back in the 2000s and now they sell more BEVs than tesla and musk is begging the US for tariffs or else tesla will go bankrupt.
Believing your opponent is perpetually incompetent is a sure fire way to get blind sighted.

stop responding to off-topic posts

>>16227156
inutile question

>>16226954
Wasn't she in The Fast and the Furious?

>>16226142
how the fuck is this spaceflight you double nigger

why do you guys lie about the quantum leap in technology that is required to make starship work?

>>16227017
This is actual footage of god making the Solar System

>>16227126
I called my grandma last Wednesday, and during out weekly talk, she told me about the Chinks doing a lunar regolith sample return. She was a bit worried/confused about that since she thinks that souls of the dead go to the Moon.

>>16227111
How loud was to boom?

>>16227189
You should try to convince her that they're trying to practice necromancy.

>>16227156
>there will be girls on mars
>some will play video games
>They will pee
Martian Chad's will be drinking gamer girl piss

>>16226157
IMPLESSIVE

china cant even build its cities without them turning into dust because of tofu buildings in 2-3 years. The are going to conquer jack and shit as any space module done by them is a complete death trap for everybody that has to use it

>>16226333
fuck off pajeet

>>16226725
is mighty puccia beating the snail yet zizter?

>nothing happening today
grim

>>16227024
maybe youre high

>>16227206
moving the goalposts. trannykraine will not win.

>>16227239
Why are you so invested in the
Is non-spaceflight related topic?

>>16227206
what launch was this?

>>16227051
Meds

>>16226842
why would your "degree" matter at all? All engineering disciplines are only concerned with your ability to do the work. You actually believe the pissant experience you'd had gotten with a "degree" compares to the real world ability you can cultivate on your own to DO THE WORK? Dumb.

https://twitter.com/DrPhiltill/status/1800010971915928036

/pol/tards and muskrats get out jfc

>>16227272
happens after every starship test. sticky didn't help. Not even sure if it's /pol/ just gen-pop /sci/ losers. The kind that make 50 million vax threads.

>>16227157
yeah and they think they're lights painted on the firmament. The truth is religious people have rotted just like progressives have.

>>16227126
dont let the flat earthers poison the well. i think its part of their campaign of bullshit.

>>16227276
I don't like Musk much but the last starship flight was a huge milestone. When you stop basing your personality around loving or hating a billionaire you can just see things for what they are

>>16227269
This could all be right but he directly ignored or missed the point of what elon said. He said the tiles were stronger, not more heat resistant. He said they would be backed with an ablative material. And that's not talked about at all.

Why hasn't aerogel been used in heatshields? This picture is old as shit

>>16227289
doesn't it have a relatively low melting point

>>16227272
>muskrats
fuck off to your subreddit

>>16227284
??????? I never said anything bad about starship or elon. Is this a bot?

>>16227284
I dont know how people get like this

Like ask me what I think of jeff bezos and I will scoff and roll my eyes every time. But I'm not going to call the man dumb and incompetent, I'm not going to say he "failed upward", and I'm not going to blueball myself that amazon is about to implode any day now. Holy shit the delusion that would take is wild

>>16227286
>backed with an ablative material
Why?

>>16227292
ah yes I guess you're right. But if they could make it take only 300 C more it could be viable

>>16227296
>muskrats get out
>It happens after every starship test
are you ok?

>>16226156
based

>>16227297
wish Bezos would launch a damn rocket already. I want to be enthusiastic about more than just Spacex

>>16227301
I was clearly talking about /pol/tards dumb fuck. Like >>16227157
God you are seriously pathetic.

>>16227298
Probably a very complicated answer that no one knows, but from what I understand from a scott manley video the other day on the topic of capsules that probably shouldn't be applied to this example, ablative materials have superior thermal protection for their weight, the problem is they are ablative. But if you cover an ablative material without a non ablative one, it doesn't ablate. So you get the mass savings. In the event starship loses a few tiles, the ablative heat shield will protect the hull and it's just a small area of underlayment that needs to be replaced.

>>16227276
just ctrl + f all their standard phrases and sluts it's obviously /pol/
>>16227293
>>>/twitter/

>>16227289
I don't know the material science too well but I think it's mainly because it would require far more mass (and thus volume) of aerogel to survive reentry than is practical. You can only remove so much heat with so much mass of ablator, and aerogel is far too low density.

>>16227308
There's an anon here who got butthurt and wants to argue about elon, he is from /pol/ and puts anti-/pol/ rhetoric in his posts as camouflage. I can't prove it with certainty but I don't really give a fuck that much either

>>16227284
>setting heat shielding back by 40 years
>no recovery
>"milestone"
I don't give a fuck about elon and spacex has been an overall success but the starship cope is beyond standard delusion

>>16226765
>>16226817
>muh science
Astronomy has literally never been useful and never will be. It is by far the least useful scientific field ever devised, on account of it being the study of things which are too far away to ever be commercially relevant.

Do you know how all the famous astronomers used to make money? They worked as ASTROLOGERS. That's all their science has ever been able to produce, selling useless fortunes to idiots.

>>16227206
>>16227308
>>16227313
Not space flight shut the fuck up retards

>>16227092
they will probably make good stack progress in just over a month, they'll see the tower is almost done and fuck off with a tower catch at stage zero

>>16227316
>setting heat shielding back by 40 years
What do you mean by this

>16227316
oh look, he's baiting again

>>16227323
yeah if it takes like 3 months to build the tower then it would make sense to try land it even if there is risk of damage
but I think 3 months might be a bit optimistic and even then if you have 1 month cadence you would lose launches

>>16226965
If it goes to space, yes. Are you trying to tell me with a straight face that you would pass up a chance to ride even the Space Shuttle, with it's 1 in 67 fatal accident rate? You would have to be a miserable faggot to pass up that opportunity.

ignore the retard please, don't even pseudo reply
just ignore

>>16227000
>Where is everybody? Why is it so dark?
>Why are you welding the hatch?

https://youtu.be/LeghC93TW6g

>>16227198
top kek

>>16227316
Starship flight 4 achieved all of it's goals. It's not bad because it didn't meet your arbitrary goals.

>>16227341

>>16227343
for me, it's MOOSE

>>16227343

>>16227348
>>16227346
this is a waverider lifeboat, lots of crossrange capability

>>16227253
i just agree with musk.

>>16226142
John 3:16

>>16227324
Don't be obtuse

>almost one year ago
>still haven't heard any follow up
why was this memory holed?

>>16227372
>not the final design with a cuck can for cargo so there's enough fuel carried internally to reach LEO

This is the only archetype of spaceplane that isn't retarded

>>16227374
Elon wants to keep the mars muffins to himself to fuel his torso growth.

Anybody have a cut off all the Starship reveals from elons gaming stream?

>>16227381
there's no muffins on mars, that's just a conspiracy theory

>>16227385
it was a 5h stream, some of it was at the beginning but then at somewhere like 3-4h there was quite a bit talk again
I haven't seen a cut (a lot of the stuff was the general stuff he talks about every time)

>>16227354
>>16227370
>not space flight
lamiaceous vegetation

>>16227389
gotcha thanks

>>16227392
i am imdian please help me

Slippery Elon, the Stainless Steel Muskrat

>>16227374
>Why was this memory holed?
Elon didn't find it

>>16227399
The future is bright bro

>>16227391
Actual jesus analog vs some dickhead

>>16227394
but the main points
>all tiles getting removed and replaced with tiles that are twice as strong (toughness wise I think, not how well they insulate heat)
>a new extra ablative layer will be added behind the heat shield tiles
>next flight in one month
>50% to succeed in tower catch, if a problem is detected before landing then the booster suicides into the water
>mars in 3 years
>earth-to-earth technically possible after starship landing is demonstrated, probably not commercially viable though
>launch from Florida by the end of next year

>>16226705
6km is not very far

>>16227414
fuck off.

Earth 2 Earth starship "military anywhere in 30 min" is obviously not reusable, right?
After your orbiter lands in shitholewithoil, Iraqistan, how are you going to get it back to a tower?

>>16227417
Sorry meant to reply to >>16227322

>>16227418
Who cares in those cases. Uncle Sam pays premium.

>>16227126
True Christians recognise space flight as necessary to spreading God's creation to distant barren lands

>>16227418
just refuel it with half a million dollars wirth of methane and liquid oxygen (should be easy enough to extort from the locals) and you can hop it back to the nearest aircraft carrier waiting in the mediterranean to be shipped home to the US of A

>>16227418
you're not going to fly it to the front lines anon. Realistically it will fly from the states to bases in Europe or Guam

>>16227418
Rocket Cargo is an airdropped pallet from orbit, not Starship landing

>>16227423
>methane and liquid oxygen (should be easy enough to extort from the locals)
do you really think bongo bongo land has big lox and lng facilities and tankers to supply the hundreds of tons needed?

>>16227429
bongo bongo is just a front. They're keeping the good stuff from us

>>16227427
I really don't see a use case for this. what do you need taken from mainland US to a base in "less" time than a cargo jet? remember too that it needs to be packed up and loaded, and if it isn't starting right next to one of the few starship launch facilities you're still need to fly it on a cargo jet just to get to starship.

>>16227432
If building supply bases next to KSC and Vandy is necessary to make e2e militarily useful it will be done.

>>16227427
>>16227428
just use a jet plane of you are just restocking something

Manned E2E missiles open up new military operations

>>16227412
>ASDS being weighted for 100 tons was real in my mind

>>16227435
Anywhere in 90 minutes while not giving a fuck about your adversaries dense air defense network.

>>16227432
maybe some elite soldiers on short notice. Logistics wise loading the rocket should be no more intensive then loading a plane no?
The army will probably use it at least a bit just because it's cool and they have money to waste. It could also be a form of subsidy for spacex and could make China shit themselves becasue everytime one side gets a new capability there's a lot of cope to go around.

>>16227438
But Starships are easy to hit with air defense.
They slowly drop with terminal velocity at the end.

>>16227438
starship is not immune to air defenses

>>16227438
Ballistic arc is extremely easy to shoot down what are you saying

>>16227443
>>16227444
Starship never enters the atmosphere, it drops cargo pods that do.

>>16227449
cargo pods are not immune to air defenses

>>16227446
orbit is not a ballistic arc

>>16227452
yes it is

I repeat, Elon Musk is a scam artist

>>16227452
the shit landing on the ground is.

>>16227059
good work, binliner

>>16227096
>>16227101
>>16227104
>>16227105
here's my attempt at making sense of all that. raptor 2 production in its first year was forced - they were cranking them out at max speed without worrying about reliability. after that first year, they slowed down dramatically production started to take the shape of a more normal learning curve. after a couple of years riding the curve they're now churning out about .75 raptors per day.

>>16227466
raptor 398 was seen in hawthorne in October 2023

>>16227466
>they're now churning out about .75 raptors per day
that's one starship every 52 days if they're fully expended

>>16227474
ok? if something's in hawthorne then that means there's no reason to believe that it's finished hardware

>>16227474
>>16227466

>>16227427
E2E resupply is not militarily useful anon. C5s can carry more than any rocket ever made and air travel is safer and cheaper than re-entry. The only somewhat coherent argument in favor of E2E I've ever heard is AA risk mitigation, but if VC and Taliban SAMs can derail US logistics then Chinese and Russian ASAT can obviously do the same thing
>>16227435
>Manned E2E missiles
>t. duct taping infantry to ICBMs
Finally some high quality bait

>>16227477
I guess, but assuming that the install date is the manufacturing date going to be pretty misleading IMO

>>16227479
>duct taping infantry to ICBMs
Where do you think sfg comes from?

>>16227429
enslave them to manufacture the fuels. easy.

>>16227480
assuming that all raptors are manufactured with the intention of eventually being installed on a rocket i'm not sure how it makes a difference. i was just going with the earliest dates they'd been spotted in boca chica or macgregor anyway.

>>16227484
why is that nigger sweaty as fuck?

>>16227479
>C5s can carry more than any rocket ever made
>max cargo weight: 127 tonnes
Lmao

>>16227490
They probably just fished him out of the ocean. Thats Gordo Cooper isn't it? Mercury flight then

>>16227452
>orbit is not a ballistic arc

https://twitter.com/JackKuhr/status/1800198738444525822
>I do wonder if that was the last we've seen of Virgin Galactic. I would be shocked if the Delta-class spaceship ever flies. The company has $867M of cash but racks up $500M (!) in losses a year. They can no longer tap capital markets to get to Delta b/c the business model fundamentally doesn't work, and it's not even really close. A semi-operational $SPCE pulled in $7M in revenue in 2023. If they do get to Delta, Virgin would also need to work through its 600-ticket backlog of deeply unprofitable/ under-priced tickets before selling its $600K tickets (which will also likely have limited demand). It just sucks b/c a lot of to-the-moon retail investors lost 99% of value on this stock. Also frustrating b/c there are plenty of other solid space investment plays

>>16227484
touche anon kek

>>16227502
how can you possibly be spending that much money when your assets consist of 1 carrier plane and 1 rocketplane?

>>16226321
>That's why more well established contractors like Lockheed Martin make conservative/realistic estimates and follow through on them consistently.
>In 2014, ULA began development of Vulcan Centaur to replace its entire rocket fleet starting in 2019, but development encountered multiple delays.[33][67][68][69][70][71][72][73] The first Vulcan Centaur certification flight launched on 8 January 2024. [74]

>Take the Crew Dragon example I provided. SpaceX got that contract in 2014 partially because Musk claimed in 2011 that they'd be ready for crewed flights within 3 years (sound familiar?). Not only was the project then given an initial deadline of 2017, but his first revision also said it would be ready by 2018. It wasn't ready until 2020.
Wasn't there a "well established contractor" that got a Commercial Crew contract as well? Could you remind us how well they met their deadlines?

>>16227507
refurbishing

>>16227512
how much damage gets incurred on every flight?

>>16227499
what an idiot. why did the dude go in the ocean?

>>16227507
Their current carrier ship is over twenty years old and apparently had to go through one bitch of a refurbishment process before their recent round of flights because the carbon composite in its airframe was decaying or de-laminating or something. I bet there are a bunch of other horrible design choices like that lurking in the program.

>>16227525
those early astros had a pretty interesting sense of humor

>>16227501
>>16227452
>>16227453
>/k/ no longer grasps why ballistic missiles are easier to intercept than boost glide hypersonics or FOBS

Hypothetically speaking, would underground basis on Venus completely sealed off from the surface be cooler and devoid of the crushing pressure issues that everything below the permanent cloud deck faces?

>>16227536
you're in the wrong place. /k/ can only have Elon giga seethe threads

>>16227432
You fly a starship over the target area and 100 special operations troops jump at 135,000 feet

>>16227538
yeah but if you're going to live in a tin can why not put the can in space and not bother with Venusian bullshit?

>>16227495
>Implying C5s don't regularly carry oversized loads that put Saturn V and Starship to shame
While you're googling more cope responses try searching "Operation Iraqi Freedom 176 tons"

>>16227542
I was just thinking, if Venus is basically one big hot sea of CO2 and sulfuric acid below cloud level then maybe something similar to the concept of undersea bases could apply. Since the pressure on the surface (which resembles somewhat of an ocean floor) is comparable to what you might fight deep underwater. Only with the temperature difference.

>>16227549
It's just hundreds of times more effort when you could just build a rotating habitat in space

god damn this guy is funnier than the N1 troll

>>16227545
A C-5 has never lifted 176 tons.

>>16227059
What a waste, this could have gone to refill the pisslocks.

>>16227553
Yes, but it is still a fun thought experiment. Some writer might find a use for it.

>>16227538
I mean if you dig deep enough, eventually the ground will be room temperature

>>16227563
really? why does it do that, is the core of venus not hot like earth's?

https://twitter.com/pfsmet/status/1799722005820068305
Different versions of Starlink launched recently

>>16227559
prove it.

>>16227566
Think about how deep you have to dig on earth to start noticing the core is hot

>>16227569
>alien warship firing a burst from their plasma cannon in low earth orbit

>>16227571
earth's crust is the average temperature of earth's surface over the course of a year. how hot is venus's surface on average over the course of a year?

>>16227566
Unknown, though the most recent resurfacing event (which is always catastrophic on Venus given how the planet fissures open due to the incomplete cracking of the crust from excess heat preventing conventional Earthlike plate tectonics) seems rather recent. We don't know if there will be another one or if the core has cooled down sufficiently. The mantle-crust structure seems also a bit different than on Earth. The rock on Venus seems somewhat brittle at least on the surface.

>>16227559
use two of them

i've avocated for sending starship to mars as soon as possible. 3 years is fine. spacex needs to get data asap especially since they're likely to win the lander contract for the commercial MSR mission.

>>16227563
>>16227571
>>16227575
Yeah I'm retarded disregard. It would be a gradient between the surface temperature and core temperature.

>>16227582
If they win commercial MSR that is ultimate W, but i'm not certain they will since Starship physically can't fulfill the contract. Doesn't have enough delta v to return from Mars even if fully fuelled on Mars. Not to mention the heat shield would melt from the return temperatures.
That is to say, despite the sucessful IFT4 theyare basically at the same stage of development in their MSR plans as Boeing - all just stuff on paper which could be done one day. And the Boeing proposal requires no creation of a massive fuel plant on Mars.

>>16227538
>>16227563
Business idea for a new Minecraft mod.

>>16227418
E2E Starship makes no sense because there's virtually no cargo that warrants that kind of expense. Nothing that NEEDS to be delivered that fast, for that much money, from such a limited number of origins and destinations. Grunts least of all.

>>16227589
i read that the mission will be split into 3 awards, one for getting the mission there, one for getting the sample, and one for return

>>16227589
stick a return vehicle in starship. it has the payload capacity to spare. starship doesn't *have* to come back from mars sample return

>>16227589
With starship's mass capability they could deploy a simple sample return mechanism that wouldn't require the rube goldberg machine developed by JPL, and as other anons said I don't think the contract is for all mission hardware.

>>16227440
>>maybe some elite soldiers on short notice
This is just Halo fanfic. Grunts can take airplanes and helicopters. There are enough of the "super duper elite" guys that they can be stationed around the world within a short flight of anywhere they might be needed.

>>16227593
if you want costs and schedules to get out of control again that sounds like the best possible way to do it

>>16227594
>>16227597
well that's true.
Using the starship to do the landing for the msr rocket would simplify the msr rocket, but that simplicity would be offset by having to get the msr rocket from the starship payload area to the surface, and if you are any of the oldspace companies building the actual msr rocket you would much rather buy vulcan and land under a skycrane

>>16227156
If a Starship launch costs $X million and it takes Y launches to fuel a Mars bound Starship with Z tons of payload capacity then the price of anything non-perishable from Earth on Mars should be around X * Y / Z million USD/ton or 1000 * X * Y / Z USD/kg

With X = 1, Y = 10 and Z = 250, that's $40/kg.
With X = 50, Y = 20 and Z = 50, it's $20,000/kg.

Unless the numbers look a lot like the first set there won't be anyone on Mars at all, so probably $50/kg - $200/kg until the ice mines are functional.

>>16227440
oh god he's not kidding

>>16227559
No clue if that's true or not but E2E for military supplies is still retarded

>>16227126
fedoraniggers will stay on earth

>>16227589
>Doesn't have enough delta v to return from Mars even if fully fuelled on Mars

what

why do you guys never talk about this

>>16227593
>ok guys, you have to work together or the tax payer gets fucked

yeah no

>>16227292
>>16227289
they're weak and brittle, too
it makes TPS tiles look like diamond, the hardest metal

>>16227298
>>16227309
the ablative shit is non-reusable, but only expended as an emergency measure

>>16227381

>>16227628
the idea is to create propellant manufacturing infrastructure and a permanent base, not boots on mars
if a return journey is absolutely necessary then you can just send tanker starships, which I guess might make sense at first but you would still have to create semi-permanent habitation

>>16227644
Sure Elon, it's fungus and there are no muffins on mars.

>>16227391
>>16227410
I can see the halo and stink lines without trying now

>>16227432
fractional orbital special forces teams

>>16227628
Musk's intention was never to build infrastructure for a boots + flag + leave mission, but to actually put mass and infrastructure on Mars. A combination of vehicles and methods could be used for the former without having to refuel a starship and return to Earth. And honestly at this point we should focus on trial and error of robotic development of a human settlement than the wasted prestige missions of having humans piss in the dirt and leave.