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15473898 No.15473898 [Reply] [Original]

I’ve developed a stochastic model to forecast mens tennis match outcomes in Masters and ATP500 tournaments.

Used Pinnacle closing prices and calculated prices implied by model probabilities to backtest profitability of final model. Bets are taken where Pinnacle closing price is greater than price implied by model probability.

Backtested using generalised Kelly (logreturn * prob) of chosen bets on a given day to optimise expected return for that day.

Normalised probability implied by Pinnacle closing price had similar Brier score, but worse reliability component than probabilities from model… so how the FUCK is this not profitable in my backtests?!

Any advice or concept suggestions greatly appreciated

>> No.15473961

>>15473898
random walk hypothesis.

>> No.15473985

>>15473961
Could you explain how this is relevant? I did mention that the reliability component of my model is better than the normalised probabilities implied by closing prices, shouldn’t that be enough?

My understanding was that I don’t need to perfectly calculate win probabilities, I just need to do it better than closing prices. And I thought a better reliability meant I’d done that?

>> No.15474410
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15474410

>>15473898
Your problem is you're doing a bunch of nonsense statistics when all you need to do is create a neural network with a few million variables. Trust me, it will actually work. Just train a network to predict tournament outcomes with a non-linear neural network.

You can very easily do it with tensorflow.js if you're not retarded

>> No.15474473

>>15473898
are you breaking even or are you losing?

>> No.15474831

>>15474473
Backtest losing, not drastically

>> No.15475038

>>15473898
When looking at implied probabilities are you accounting for the house's take?

>> No.15475120

>>15475038
Yes, that’s what normalising

>> No.15475122

>>15475120
*Yes, that’s what normalising will have done

>> No.15475125
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15475125

>> No.15475129
File: 1.11 MB, 1x1, Fractional_Distance.pdf [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15475129

Fractional Distance: The Topology of the Real Number Line with Applications to the Riemann Hypothesis
>https://vixra.org/abs/2111.0072
>http://gg762.net/d0cs/papers/Fractional_Distance_v6-20210521.pdf
Recent analysis has uncovered a broad swath of rarely considered real numbers called real numbers in the neighborhood of infinity. Here we extend the catalog of the rudimentary analytical properties of all real numbers by defining a set of fractional distance functions on the real number line and studying their behavior. The main results of are (1) to prove with modest axioms that some real numbers are greater than any natural number, (2) to develop a technique for taking a limit at infinity via the ordinary Cauchy definition reliant on the classical epsilon-delta formalism, and (3) to demonstrate an infinite number of non-trivial zeros of the Riemann zeta function in the neighborhood of infinity. We define numbers in the neighborhood of infinity as Cartesian products of Cauchy equivalence classes of rationals. We axiomatize the arithmetic of such numbers, prove all the operations are well-defined, and then make comparisons to the similar axioms of a complete ordered field. After developing the many underlying foundations, we present a basis for a topology.

>> No.15475130
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15475130

>> No.15475140
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15475140

>>15475125
>>15475129
>>15475130
Aww buddy, googling ‘complex analysis’ *is* very impressive
It’s got the word ‘complex’ in it
Who’s a clever boy

>> No.15475146
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15475146

I am not familiar with more than the absolute rudiments of number theory. I can tell you the fundamental theorem of arithmetic, and that's about the end of it, so I have not yet extended my RH result to its application toward the prime number theorem. However, a point I wish to get across is the following. Once we introduce INFhat as an infinite numerical element devoid of the usual absorptive properties of infinity (which is fine since "algebra" is the study of mathematical symbols and the rules for manipulating them), the prime numbers {p} will have the same distribution as numbers of the form {INFhat - p}. Anything we might learn about the distribution of the latter will necessarily tell us the same about the former. So, since arithmetic in the neighborhood of infinity is **slightly different** than arithmetic in the neighborhood of the origin where 150+ years of study have yielded little to no information about the distribution of the primes, one might spend a few decades (or hours) studying the distribution of {INFhat - p}. It might be that the different arithmetic is useful for this application.

>> No.15475153

I posted this on 4chan on October 1, 2018. A few days later, they had theis BS story about some sort problem getting solved on 4chan, but that was a psyop designed to obfuscate and distract from my RH negation.

An anonymous 4chan post could help solve a 25-year-old math mystery
https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/24/18019464/4chan-anon-anime-haruhi-math-mystery
>Oct 25, 2018

>> No.15475157
File: 353 KB, 1042x1258, TIMESAND___VERYquickRH.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15475157

>>15475153
Forgot pic: see date.

>> No.15475159
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15475159

Although I didn't find the direct counterexample in this early paper, I feel like I had already solved RH in March 2017. This is the paper where I laid out the architecture of the solution making an appeal to the neighborhood of infinity. I think I was calling "the doubly hypercomplexly infinitesimal neighborhood of the north pole of the Riemann sphere" or something back then.

>> No.15475160
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15475160

>>15475130
>>15475159
You can see that the figures in these papers are the basis for the John Titor logo, which follows since I am also the inventor of the time circuit.

>> No.15475161

Hi tooky! Hope ur well

>> No.15475168
File: 2.69 MB, 1x1, TIMESAND___NextSteps-1-146.pdf [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15475168

Sixty-Six Theses: Next Steps and the Way Forward in the Modified Cosmological Model

The purpose is to review and lay out a plan for future inquiry pertaining to the modified cosmological model (MCM) and its overarching research program. The material is modularized as a catalog of open questions that seem likely to support productive research work. The main focus is quantum theory but the material spans a breadth of physics and mathematics. Cosmology is heavily weighted and some Millennium Prize problems are included. A comprehensive introduction contains a survey of falsifiable MCM predictions and associated experimental results. Listed problems include original ideas deserving further study as well as investigations of others' work when it may be germane. A longstanding and important conceptual hurdle in the approach to MCM quantum gravity is resolved. A new elliptic curve application is presented. With several exceptions, the presentation is high-level and qualitative. Formal analyses are mostly relegated to the future work which is the topic of this book. Sufficient technical context is given that third parties might independently undertake the suggested work units.

>> No.15475169
File: 2.08 MB, 1x1, TIMESAND___NextSteps-146-306.pdf [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
15475169

https://vixra.org/abs/2206.0152
http://gg762.net/d0cs/papers/Sixty-Six_Theses__v2-20220726.pdf

>> No.15475173
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15475173

>>15475161
I don't like it when you use that diminutive form of my name to address me.

>> No.15475188

>>15475169
>>15475173
If you can’t help with the original post, please leave the thread

>> No.15475194

>>15473985
don't trust namefags on this board