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/sci/ - Science & Math


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15185252 No.15185252 [Reply] [Original]

>Influential paper with 222 citations which linked recessions and left-wing voting patterns retracted
>Paper was featured in The New York Times, Salon & other large MSM outlets
>Retractions from economics journals have been rarer than for other subjects, such as the biomedical sciences.

Economics somewhat straddles the boundary between hard and soft science because economics can sometimes be highly mathematical, this is not one of those cases.

https://retractionwatch.com/2023/01/18/influential-paper-linking-recessions-and-left-wing-voting-patterns-retracted/

A highly cited economics paper that suggested people raised during recessions were more likely to vote for left-leaning political parties has been retracted, apparently due to a coding error that rendered the results invalid.

The retraction marks a rarity among economics papers, which research has shown are infrequently retracted compared to papers on other subjects. The article appears to be the first in The Review of Economic Studies to have been retracted for a reason other than publisher error.

The study’s authors, Paola Giuliano and Antonio Spilimbergo, are economists at the Anderson School of Management at the University of California, Los Angeles and the International Monetary Fund, respectively. Giuliano is also the Chauncey J. Medberry Chair in Management at UCLA.

The paper, “Growing up in a Recession,” was published in November 2013. It has been cited 222 times, according to Clarivate’s Web of Science. Working papers from the World Bank and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have also cited the article.

>> No.15185254
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15185254

The paper was retracted on January 11. According to the retraction notice:

>The authors and editorial team are retracting this article because the original findings cannot be replicated, likely as a result of an inadvertent coding error. While the original codes and data sets are no longer available, new analysis with a markedly similar data set does not support the original results.

Neither the paper’s authors nor the editors of the journal responded to a request for comment from Retraction Watch.

The study has received a fair amount of media attention. An article in Salon, published soon after the final version of the study, was titled, “Has the recession spawned a generation of Democrats?” An earlier, working version of the article available in 2009 sparked an opinion piece in the New York Times from conservative columnist Ross Douthat. More recently, articles have cited the study in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and the U.S. government’s response.

Retractions from economics journals have been rarer than for some other subjects, such as the biomedical sciences. A 2012 study examining retractions of economics papers for plagiarism found only six going back to 2009. But the Retraction Watch Database shows that around 700 economics papers were retracted between 2013 and December 2022.

Discussion of the retraction on Twitter was mixed. Economist Florian Ederer applauded the authors for retracting the paper.


Others were more critical of the retraction notice, particularly the assertion that the code used in the study no longer exists.

“I don’t really understand the reason,” wrote Tim Martens, an assistant professor of accounting at Bocconi University in Italy, in a reply to Ederer’s tweet. “Did their dogs eat the code?”

>> No.15185259

>>15185252
Economics is a logical practice and nothing more.
There is no science to it.
It's an exercise in ceteris paribus thinking.
All things equal...price goes up, people buy less.
Since all things are not equal in the real world, you can only see and deduce general effect of policies.

Now, in general, ALL leftist and communist ideas and policies ruin the economy.
How much? Impossible to know or figure.
You can post facto measure the effect to a certain degree though,.

>> No.15185355

I wonder what prompted them to retract this. Usually they get away with doing things like this if it suits the right agenda.

>> No.15185365

Economics isn't science, maybe maths, sometimes

>> No.15185383
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>>15185355
>published in 2013
>spammed all over the MSM for political influence purposes
>retracted a decade later when it no longer mattered
>no mention of the retraction in any of the mockingbird media which reported the original result
its was a psyop, the retraction is the way to somewhat cover up the intentional psychological manipulation which too place, call it an accident.

>> No.15185390

>>15185383
Well usually they don't even bother retracting it. Especially when the code is "gone." It's not like Michael Mann's hockey stick was retracted after he refused to provide his code and lost a court case over it.

>> No.15185435
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>>15185252
>economics
Not science
>>>/biz/
>>>/pol/
>>>/lgbt/

>> No.15185499

>>15185435
retractionwatch doesn't cover the humanities, you're just triggered by the content of the thread and hoping to "shut it down" with your complaints

>> No.15185506
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>>15185499
social "sciences" aren't science either.

>> No.15185515

>>15185506
>biology not a science
>technology not a science

>> No.15185525

Recessions are just a typical result of the business cycle.
You could have 'right wing' governments forever and you would still have regular recessions.

>> No.15185562
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>>15185506
>politics: /new/

>> No.15185730

>>15185254
>inadvertent coding error
lol
>the original codes and data sets are no longer available
LOL
>new analysis with a markedly similar data set does not support the original results
L O L

>> No.15185747

>>15185252
>published in 2013
>retracted in 2023
Is there any consequence for this? You already got your academic promotions off the back of your research. It's not like they'll cancel your tenure track.

>> No.15186237

>>15185747
There should be some sort of codified criminal penalty for fraud like this. It would make people think twice before publishing bunk results.

>> No.15186260

>>15185525
Damn sounds like we should get rid of the business cycle

>> No.15186273

>>15185747
>Is there any consequence for this?
Nope. Welcome to Semitism.

>> No.15186288

Funniest retraction was the Dutch academic psychologist who wrote a paper that found messy train stations made people racist. He'd fabricated the data out of whole cloth.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/disordered-environments-promote-stereotypes-and-discrimination

>> No.15186289

>>15185747
What happens to the 222 papers that cited it as a reference? Do they lose their authoritativeness since they're based off discredited reasoning?

>> No.15186300

>>15186289
And the papers who cited the 222 papers that cited the fraudulent paper? The purpose of academic fraud is to insert a narrative into the field that will survive the original paper being discredited.

>> No.15186548
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>>15185499

>> No.15186574

>>15186288
How is data fabrication uncovered?

>> No.15186856

>>15186574
By anyone that looks closely at any study ever.

>> No.15186970

>>15185252
t. anti-American schizo retard

Kill yourself you fucking subhuman vatnik shitskin mongoloid.
Fuck Russia.
Fuck China.
Fuck Iran.
Fuck Syria.
Fuck Putin.
Fuck pol.
And most of all, fuck you incel troll losers who constantly flood 4chan with retarded conspiracy theories about muh based Putin and muh vaccines and muh globalism.

>> No.15187359
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>>15186970

>> No.15187367
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>>15186970
Putin won. Trump won.

>> No.15187660

>>15187367
I will not take the TrumpVax.

>> No.15187664

>>15185506
>Engineering: /b/

Fixed

>> No.15187674

>>15186289
Anon, if my recent years of studying how the whole "medical" industry got started have any merit they just chalk it up as settled science and call you a quack for questioning it.

>> No.15187681

>>15185252
democrats just aren't ready to deal with any implications and they must be shielded from the repercussions. scientifically.

https://odysee.com/@Realfake_Newsource:9/RFNS-5.22-002-009:2

>> No.15189966

>>15187664
>Eniggering

>> No.15190014

>>15185252
>Economics somewhat straddles the boundary between hard and soft science because economics can sometimes be highly mathematical
lmao, STEMtards really need more mandatory philosophy classes.

>> No.15190060

>>15186300
the purpose of academic fraud is to secure publication credits and grant funding
simple as
capitalism is fundamentally incompatible with the scientific method

>>15190014
the most fundamental studies of reality are philosophy and mathematics, and each works best with a solid understanding in the other