/sci/ - Science & Math

>>15052750
>How fucked are we Europeans on energy in the next 10 years?
Very. The very high prices will fuck up the whole economy for a while, and like you said there won't be any proper fix short term. We're the big losers of the current changes, but really it's nothing new, it's been the case since the 80's.

>>15052750
Very, but not necessarily because of Russia. A lot can change in 10 years. In 1982 you're halfway through Reagan's first term and the USSR looked formidable while trade was low. By 1992, the USSR was gone and there was a flurry of new trade with Russia.

The Ukraine War could change dramatically very quickly. If Putin dies tomorrow and his successors are weakened by the war's effect on public and elite opinion, and perhaps by infighting (Russia now has six separate armies fighting for it, a recipie for civil war. You have a military that is actually multiple fiefdoms, Wagner, the new billionaire brigades being stood up to balance Wagner, the Chechen military, the LPR and DNR which still have their own command despite being "part of Russia," and to top that off, a small but growing number of a few thousand Russian's and Belarusians fighting for Ukraine in the Freedom Legions who could become the core of a "democratic army." Not to mention minorities pushed into service could return home to push for independence in a power vacuum.

Putin is old and has Parkinson's and cancer, allegedly. He could die any day now and the trajectory of Russia could do a U turn.

The thing you actually need to worry about is pension liabilities and the surging number of retirees to old people. EU and especially US taxes will have to surge up dramatically even as investment is cut heavily to meet liabilities. The US isn't much better off because, although only old people get universal healthcare, it is way, way more expensive and costs as much as national health plans elsewhere. The US UBI for Boomers is quite expensive too, $1.4 trillion a year already thanks to inflation and early retirements.

High debt + pensions will crowd out everything else. This will lead to political tensions as the old will have had a better standard of living and higher life expectancy (US is already falling hard) and be mostly of Euro descent while the workers will increasingly be majority non-Euro.

>>15052750
>French
Not fucked, based nuke enjoyers.
>British
Potentially not fucked, provided they stop being faggots and build more nukes (so probably fucked)
>Germany
Gigafucked. Gave in to a bunch of ideological lunatics, shut down their nuclear power stations, and new need to live off Russians good will and French scraps.
>Everyone else
Dunno, no one cares about those loosers.

>>15052875
*Surfing retirees to working people

Also, Africa will dominate European and world history from 2030 on.

Sub-Saharan Africa just passed a billion people in 2015 but is on track for 4.3 billion in 2100. Long term demographic projections are actually fairly accurate except when war or migration dramatically effect them. At the same time this population booms, climate change will begin hammering the region, sending hundreds of millions looking to migrate. This is 2015 x 50 in terms of flows.

Africa will also drive world economic growth because:

1. Currently rich nations will all slow dramatically due to aging populations and huge pension liabilities.
2. Poor countries that haven't hit diminishing returns on capital have higher growth potential due catch up growth.
3. By 2100, over half of all humans under 18 will be African, but they start making up more than a third of all young people even earlier.

The later 2020s is when US retiree expenses really explode while college enrollment peaks and then plunged in 2025 due to less young people joining the pool. Europe has an even harder drop off due to less migration.

This will cause major political instability as nativists attempt to put minority rule in place and falling living standards and surging inequality (migration helps the pension problem but hurts equality, trade off) drive politics wild.

Forget the 2020s, a crisis dwarfing WWII later this century is staring us in the face.

>>15052886
Young populations = higher risk of war and social strife
Older populations = slower growth

Think about how totally Boomers dominated the culture when they were 36% of the population as children during the later 1960s peak and then fathom was a world looks like where children and this families that care about the future and investment are just 16% of the population while seniors are 25%+ and focused on keeping their maintenance going, with a max horizon of 15 years.

Arguably this is why the African population tsunami and global warming already is being ignored. The leadership of Western nations is increasingly all over retirement age. In the US it is overwhelmingly so.

>>15052750
own house, but solar on your roof, some batteries for storage, problem solved forever

>>15052886
>By 2100
You know trends don't last forever, right ? The current growth of African population isn't sustainable long term.

>>15053057
Shit energy output
Shit lifespan
Much too expensive

>>15053057
yea but you have to live somewhere warm

>>15052750
We are not fucked in the slightest. By 2025 already we will have some of the cheapest energy on the planet according to nearly every study on this topic.

What you crypto tankie dissidents fail to understand about the petro and coal lobby is that it's a mostly communist operation that relies on massive subsidies from the state. Renewable energy is a purely capitalist, democratic way of decentralising power generation which relies only on the power of our own innovation and manufacturing ability to implement. No more begging Arabs and snowniggers to treat us fairly. No more oil gluts destroying our economy every 10 years. The future is one of pure European and OECD technological supremacy.

Concerning chemical feedstock we already have offshore hydrogen up and running. Only losers and traitors bought by the CCP will gaslight you about the production we have already achieved in this industry.

>>15052875
Age pyrmamid meme is not a problem as China has an even bigger crisis. The only countries with young populations heavily rely on OECD trade and markets.

The West has no viable competators.

>>15052886
>Africa will dominate European and world history from 2030 on.
Retarded Afrocentrist cope. Why is Nigeria with it's 300+ million people not already a world superpower? Africans on average are a liability that cost an economy more than they produce.

Africa will just be an increasingly poor and desperate continent reliant on foreign food imports and aid.

>>15053147
I didn't say "the West will decline relative to China," I said "young people in the West will face a period of declining economic growth, stagnant wages, low amounts of investment, particularly public investment, and growing inequality." It isn't particularly radical to suggest that, as the dependency ratio surges, productivity and capital investment will decline.

The West will likely decline relative to the very poorest countries, but that's already been true for decades. Places that have millions of people doing substance farming by hand can see huge returns on basic capital investment, e.g. giving farmers tractors. Every Western farm already has a tractor and tons of other capital.

It's the same reason giving all office workers a computer boosts productivity a ton but giving them multiple computers doesn't do much. Declining returns on capital, meaning more gains are possible in poor places. Nigeria doesn't need to get rich to be a booming opportunity zone, it just needs to get slightly less poor.

If the West and East Asia slump into 1-1.5% growth, then anyone chasing yields looks to either new tech or poorer countries, with the biggest markets by far being SSA and the Indian subcontinent.

Africa won't shape European history because it is strong, it will shape it because it is weak, because it has very low state capacity and is very vulnerable to climate change.

People will become wealthy enough to buy means of attempting to enter Europe but not wealthy enough to want to stay put.

Keeping a billion plus motivated people from moving into Europe (and Asia and the Americas will see major flows too) will require an absolutely massive investment. Either Africans will flood into these places and obviously change the culture and history there or places will need to radically change how they interact with the world and the amount of resources put into defense to stop migration. 50+% of people under 18, that changes history.

>>15053151
Or more simply, if a majority of all humans live in Africa and are of recent African descent, how can the region not shape history?

Think how Chinese growth shaped the world. Now multiply that number by 4 or more.

>>15053138
>installed power
The joke tells itself.

>>15052750
>in the next 10 years?
we are barely surviving this winter because the russian pipes still flowed into early summer to fill up storage, still industry is gutted with many permanent ofshorings happening and every citizen is seeng their discretionary spending evaporate before the utilities bills
next winter has no plan at all to meet demand so that means rolling brown outs and gas and electricity plus even higher bills to now push people to dip into credit and savings
third winter still has no solution but at this point citizens can afford power bills and nations cant afford imports anymore
so in short you have 2 years to get out or enjoy living in pre industrial times again

and this is on top of the massive layoffs and bankruptcies already underway, most bars and eateries for instances are absolutely dead now

>>15053330
Not sure if Russian shill or retard but
>Replacing one energy source gets harder as time goes on.
No it won't. 24 and 25 will be better all else equal because there is more time to recommission coal, nuclear, and renewable plants or even to build new ones. The high price of energy and chance long term displacement of Russia gas makes a wider array of different energy production projects economically viable. You're pretending supply is finite and only comes from Russia and can only dwindle, when the reality is that energy supply can and will expand with elevated prices. Was Europe "pre-industrial" before the pipelines were built?

>Muh collapse and depression because a trade partner that made up 23% of the EU naturalmarket now only makes up 10%.

LOL, no.

It always cracks me up how there is a huge overlap between "muh hard times strong men, hurry we're strong," people and those who panick and pretend their enduring extreme suffering because prices rose 10%.

>>15052886
>Africa will dominate European and world history from 2030 on
LOL
LMAO EVEN
they need to get their constant civil wars fixed first

>>15053138
Renewables (solar in particular) just enslaves us to China, they know it's a scam to sell to grifters like Elon Musk while they're building more coal and nuclear reactors for themselves. If they figure out thorium then that cements them as the no. 1 superpower on Earth

>>15052750
Energy? I would worry about Feminism if I were an european

>>15054055
One crisis causes the other.

>>15052750
Europe is Terminally fucked, not just in the Energy sector.

>>15053509
you are arguing against the voices in your own head there fren, nothing in that second part was mentioned
your numbers are pointless its 55% of german nat gas thats going to zero and as the eu is finding out you cant just replace massive things without breaking industry

>Replacing one energy source gets harder as time goes on.
yes it does because the industry that underpins your entire currency is dying while you look at at it
all of the eu's wealth is based on importing stuff, processing it and exporting with surplus, that entire chain is now broken beyond repair
but by all means stay comfy in normalcy bias i a sure nothing will happen to you

>>15054142
an energy crisis would destroy feminist overnight though, let's see how the strong independent women fare without tinder, banking, uber, food apps, netflix, and whatever garbage they use on the internet coupled with no State to protect their ass

>>15052750
Solar, i hope we make it through the filter

>>15054370
If you think PV is the solution then you're the filter.

>>15053109
it works everywhere, most people are not aware but solar panels are even more efficient in colder climate

>>15054170
You're fucking retarded. Countries get cut off from energy imports and spammed with bombs and they still don't got back to preindustrial times. In 1917 starving Germans could into substitution economics. The Austrian Empire managed to do this and was barely a state by then, while also still killing a million Italians and fighting the Russian hordes.

Germany has enough decommissioned coal and nuclear plants that if it recommissioned all it would be a net energy producer dumbass. Obviously you can't recommission plants closed in 2005 over night but it also doesn't take 3 years to open more plants. They have already fired up a bunch of old coal plants.

Learn how supply and demand works. If supply in Europe is too low and price doubles, which it has, then every oil producer not named Russia redirects exports there to get the higher price, making supply go up and price fall.

>>15055348
>Germany and Austria 1917
>Cut off from 95% of trade including energy imports
>Expand electricity and roads
>Produce 680 million shells versus 790 million for the entire entente (and 80M of this is American stuff not thrown in until the end, US production advantage was wild even by 1914)
>Churn out thousands of howitzers and rail cars, the equivalent of today's trucks, more than doubling supply despite constant heavy losses as barrels melt or guns are captured or destroyed.

>Germany 2022
>Lose far lower share of imports and energy imports specifically.
>Oh well, guess we have to let Russia be our neighbors, we will go stone age and die without their gas.
>Give Ukraine 10 guns at a time, then say you're critically low on guns and won't have enough for years because you have 35 away.
>Roll over and spread bussy
If the US was a evil as some of us complain they could have already annexed us with a simple blockade, since it would hit exports, including energy, even harder than this has and no one except China builds real fleets anymore because the Mutts have 11 carrier groups which is impossible to catch.

>>15052875
Probably has the core of it. It's not that Europe couldn't mobilize and produce its own energy, it's that it is old and tired. Keeping pensioner standards of living is priority number one. If Europe becomes progressively weaker and subject to thralldom who cares, the leaders will be dead by then. Comfort first. So in a crisis just sit with your thumb up your ass and do nothing.

Pic slightly related. Writing that made me realize how comical it is that Austria used to control a fifth of Europe and boss France or Russia around at times. Now it's just a tiny mountain Germany, an extra Switzerland. Has any country other than Mongolia fallen as hard? Maybe Lithuania?

>>15052750
Europe will be fine - most of the valuable gas fields are in the north of the Urals i.e. not in the Russian homeland itself; once Russia is sufficiently destabilized and eating itself alive, it will be a comparatively simple manner to move in from Finland/Norway and annex the fields for the EU, bypassing the Russian population. It'll take some time to build new pipelines, but in 10 years? Everything should be setup and working by then

>>15053288
>Think how Chinese growth shaped the world
They literally did not and that's kind of the point. They've always been the biggest population segment throughout human history and yet have had relatively low influence compared to Europeans.

Very few non-Han Chinese can even read their alphabet nevermind speak Mandarin. Eveyone on Earth is heavily influenced by European culture in their science/art/cuture, naturalism is obvious, but also nearly everyone knows early Germanic mythology live Elves, dwarfs etc. despite Europeans always being a global minority. Even Japanese Shinto spirits are more widely known than any Chinese influence despite having a tenth the population size.

Highly population simply does not equal power and influence. Never has never will. An African century is extremely unlikely.

>>15052750
You deserve to freeze for allowing politicians to make shit energy decisions and believing green party soviet propaganda

>>15055400
Not to mention they deleted much of their culture due to the Cultural Revolution.

>>15055373

Never going to happen. Enjoy a Chinese-vassal at your doorstep.

>>15052750

Eurobros...

>>15055864
Even if you believe that projection, the next question you have to ask is why these nations are still shitholes that have accomplished nothing other than redoing milestones Western civilization achieved in the 60s.

>>15055873

No Marshal Plan for them.

>>15052750
It depends greatly whether or not Europe continues to go wind/solar or if they're actually committed to lowering GHG emissions.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4028640

>>15052782
That's why the US decided to release fusion to the public a few days ago. Energy crisis in 10 years will be completely averted.

>>15052900
Zoom out.

>>15055953
I don't think fusion reactors will be fully operational in ten years

>>15055359
>Austria used to control a fifth of Europe
By the same logic Belgians now control all of Europe because EU parliament is in Brussels
House of Hapsburg used to control a fifth of Europe

>>15055877
Are you fucking retarded? Who Marshal Planned the US? They themselves?

>>15056193

Oh that one was done wih the might of the US navy, the only one left after WW2 and the Bretton Woods system whcih solidified the US as the linchpin of international trade and finance.

>>15053281
>Keeping a billion plus motivated people from moving into Europe (and Asia and the Americas will see major flows too) will require an absolutely massive investment
Not really. All you have to do is kill the people who try to cross or get caught afterwards. Eventually they cease making attempts, because not even the people in question would be stupid enough to not get that message.

Enforcing a border is trivial if you have a government by people who actually care.

>>15055359
>it's that it is old and tired.
Stupid Chud meme.

Germany fixed this whole energy crisis within 7 months and built LNG ports in record time displaying immense vitality. The third world media is amazed at this as many countries have had rolling blackouts for decades without improvement. India, South Africa etc. have all taken billions in aid from Germany and other Western countries to fix their energy crisis while Europe fixed it by itself without aid.

While you morons spout idiot rhetoric about Europe being a museum or whatever we have discovered the Higgs, built the largest aerospace industry in the world, the most accurate civilian GPS constellation, landed on an astroid, have the biggest megaengineering project on the planet, invented the first working vaccine for covid 19 before anyone else, discovered perfectoid spaces and manufacture the fabs for quite literally every single computer chip on the planet.


Your statement is not midwittery, it's the kind of ignorance only literal Afrocentrist niggers have.

>>15056243
>invented the first working vaccine for covid 19 before anyone else
KEK!

>>15056240
They already trickled down many routes to zero. The ones that still make it through are due to massive corruption from human traffickers. All that actually needs to happen is to set cash benefits to zero for all illegal entries. Even keep them in humanitarian camps. This kills the industry that fuels it.

>>15056248
It's true you limped dicked stickfuck.

>Chinks leak their bioweapon prematurely.
>Europe and America develops countermeasures almost immediately and saves their population.
>Benevolently forgives incompetent Chinks despite their racist rants.
>CCP/Vatnik propoganda machine immediate starts blaming "American soldiers" or whatever for "actually" spreading the virus.
>Spread other schizophrenic conspiracy theories about the virus and the vaccine to hide their own incompetance and inefficacy of their shitty vaccine.
>Remain in strong lockdown untill finally giving up in 2022 and immediately face a crisis with over capacity hospitals that they've had 3 fucking years to fix.
>Refuse to buy Moderna vaccine and literally beg and threaten Western CEOs to hand over mRNA tech, throw a tantrum when they couldn't get it.

The only thing the CCP/Moscow will ever be able to accomplish is to trick our double digit IQ far left and far right dissidents into believing their anti-Western rhetoric.

>>15056254
Exactly. No benefits, no demand. And economic challenges turn most societies inward. Italy and soon the Balkans and Spain will all be done playing nicely with the “humanitarian” groups that help traffic migrants.

Europeans (excluding russians) are the intelligenst race of the earth. They figure out something else than russian gas fart. Not a real problem.

>>15052750
>Would love some of your insight
easy. winthin then years you will buy modular nuclear plants from china and import thier synthetic fuel which will complete the trajectory of europe into a vassal state of china.

>>15056280
this desu

Bros, I'm worried abut Korea...

>>15056280
Truly amazing. This is why the PEI and the insurers of the AOK are telling Germans that they have a high chance of being injured by the vaccines yes?

>>15056280
Truly amazing. This is why the PEI is telling Germans that they have a high chance of being injured by the vaccines yes? You're definitely not lying about muh russia are you?

>>15056528
Already happening, but with solar. Where are all the panels coming from? That's right, China. And fucking Elon Musk fell for the grift while the chnks are investing in molten salt thorium reactors

>>15055359
It is because both republics and democracies are inheritely weak and corrupt after a few decades of existing.
Just look at how taxes work here in Eurostan. 50% of your company earnings go to the govt, followed by 1/3 to 1/2 of your paycheck and then you pay 10-20% VAT on everything. And a good third of social security goes to migrant leeches from Morroco and other safe countries.
Also, the oppressive Prussian monarchy had lower taxes starting at a higher threshold and still managed to have a genuinely good functioning state/army with acceptable laws on weaponry for civilians, as compared to the liberal democracy that is Germany with no army and a yoke of taxes and steps towards civil disarmament.

>>15052750
If you mother fuckers started fracking it would solve all of your issues.

>>15052886
That population graph looks familiar, I swear I've seen it somewhere before....

Oh wait lmao
>>15052750
It depends on if you let retarded green niggers decommission nuclear and coal power plants instead of just shutting them down.

>>15055348
very nice projection and absolute peak midwittery
thinking 1917 has any relevancy to today
anyways look to my earlier post you cant just replace one fuel source with the other and expect it all to work as if its all a big thermodynamics equation, the entire chemical sector is shrekked without nat gas even if magically nuclear plants or coal plants would be there
also all of this is meant to be build out while europe itself no longer has both chemical and metals manufacturing all shuttered and raw materials from russia are embargoed so how the fuck is new capacity in anything to be build
you also fail badly at logistics, the fleet and port facilities simply dont exist to replace pipe capacity, this one is gonna be very spicy after russia oil and gas dies by itself as they cant maintain their permafrost facilities
but by all means keep believing in your normalcy bias and historical tales of relevance, it will not take long for your total failure to become apparent to you

>>15056243
>Solved every crisis
>Prices just 50-150% of same time last year.

>>15056386

If Eurofags are so intelligent why did they blow themselves up in two catastrophic, self-destructive wars that ended European hegemony and catapulted the American and Russian ones?

Europe is a dinosaur from another era, still clinging to the time when it was the center and envy of the world.

>>15055953
cope.jpg

>>15056592
Why should we not take advantage of them imposing slave labour conditions on their own population to give us cheap panels? We retain the best technology and could quickly replace the market once they start raising their prices. In the mean time I prefer the current focus on automation.

>>15056661
Only 14% of my income actually goes to tax before VAT, most of the rest goes to pensions, unemployment (II, not Hartz), health insurance and the church. The Bundeswehr gets 18% of the federal budget which is not bad at all, the Germany army is the second biggest in Europe which in turn has the biggest combined army on the planet.

Your demoralisation gaslighting is wortless. It does not highlight any real problems (of which we have many). You don't have any real valid criticism, just complaints about things that are actually working just fine, especially when compared to any third or second world shithole.

>>15056243
>>15055359
>it's that it is old and tired. Keeping pensioner standards of living is priority number one.
Literally what? I don't even understand the relation to the current crisis, which had the opposite "problem" of comfort being sacrificed on the altar of geopolitics.

The actual reason, and if you are actually European you are aware of this mentality, is that we have a massive superiority complex. In ages past, it was mostly about Europe "civilizing" the world and bringing modernity ("bringing" being a very literal physical interpretation). Well, guess what -- it's not "ages past". We still think like that, but it has now mostly shifted into shit like morals (as it applies in geopolitical and environmental topics).
Europe is mortally afraid of committing to the second-best, the imperfect moral choice. In many Euro countries like Germany, nuclear is currently considered such a second, unmoral choice, and as such haram.


Though
>Now it's just a tiny mountain Germany, an extra Switzerland.
Made me kek internally.

>>15055953
maybe in 50 years we'll be lucky to have it become practical, so that hippies/politicians/oil shills can shut it down.

>>15052750
>>15052782

YES. you are right
this is planned destruction of europe by traitors and foreign agents.
Industrial production of steel, concrete, fertiliser etc. is halted. Private individuals are robbed with energy bills that are 5-times higher. they are effectively killing us.

>>15057700
Around here in Norway the prices are about 10x of what they used to be and we make the electricity. One company explained tey had survived two world wars, but now they are being killed by our inept leaders.

>>15057741
What is the ineptitude of Norwegian leaders, building too many interconnects to export electricity?

>>15057775
>building too many interconnects to export electricity?
That is part of it. Those were built and we were promised the price increase would be insignificant. Everyone and their dog doubted that on various news discussion fora. And the price increased far beyone belief. Politicans here have normally never worked a single day in industry, a few have worked in essentially protected government owned companies, but most of them have only been in politics. Very few have completed a degree, they tend to be tooo stupid for that.

So first the cost of electricity takes to the skies. We normally don't have gas heating so inflation increases. Then because of other cost increases, the inflation rises further, so the government raises interest rates. I am debt free but others are in deep financial troubles now.

So to deflect the discontent, the coalition parties in power tries to play the envy card. It goes badly wrong. First energy taxes are raised. Power companies respond instantly by dropping all investments in improvements and new power, both hydroelectric and wind power. Also fish farming taxes are raised, based on expected earnings rather than real earnings, just because that is more convenient for ministry of finance. So fish farming companies respond immediately by freezing new investments, and there are also redundancies. And then more taxes are planned, so wealthy people are leaving the country in droves, mostly to Switzerland.

And politicians cannot understand any of these consequences. This is going to be a cold winter.

>>15052750
Very, I hope you enjoy stagflation and Washington externalizing its costs onto you.

>>15056684
>fracking
>EROI is 5 at most
>solve all of your issues.
lmao, the only reason why we in America had a shale boom was because of ZIRP and subsidies. Fracking is incredibly marginal at best

nuclear technology has existed for 70 years and we are having this issue

>>15052750
>Pro-Putin shills going into panic mode over working tokamak.

Ya love to see it. Can't wait until the spread of these fusion plants, lithium-sulfer and other new battery technologies, and genetically modified oil producing bacteria make Saudi Arabian, Russia, the UAS, Iraq, and Iran absolutely irrelevant to the world economy over the next 30 years.

The recalcitrant elites in these places will be toppled and the places will finally escape the resource curse because making money will require investing in their people, not pumping shit out of the ground.

>>15058020
Extremely based post.

>>15052750
It's not only Europe. Globally stuff like coal, natural gas and oil is running out.

As we can see with Europe renewables aren't enough. Europe's energy crisis will be a global one in 30 years.

>>15058020
>working tokamak
Scientists already debunked that. Don't trust everything you read on Fox News.

https://www.space.com/fusion-ignition-scientists-skeptical-explained

>>15058024
China already has rolling blackouts because they pissed off Aussies and lost some of their coal access.

Meanwhile Europe is yet to suffer a single blackout 11 months after this proper crisis with thirdies screeching 2 more weeks non-stop and too retarded to accept the simple truth that a crisis in OECD hits them harder than us.

>>15058024
>oil is running out
it literally gets continuously produced

>>15052886
>By 2100, over half of all humans under 18 will be African, but they start making up more than a third of all young people even earlier
A terrifying thought
Everything you said is right for the most part, but given the political shift in Sweden and potentially other European countries to follow I'm not so sure that they'll just spread their legs Luke they did in 2015.
Youre correct that immigration is amd has been used by western countries to supplant their stagnant and declining populations for the sake of the economy, but recent studies in viable sperm counts have shown that decreasing male fertility is not exclusive to the first world. We're approaching a Children of Men like situation

>>15058065
Honestly doubt sperm count really matters since it's a numbers game. I'm more convinced the very reason it's lower is because we have so much sex in modern life that production of spermatazoa can't keep up with other cheap fluids and so gets diluted.

The primary reason for low fertility will remain financial insecurity.

>>15053138
>Renewable energy is a purely capitalist, democratic way of decentralising power generation which relies only on the power of our own innovation and manufacturing ability to implement. No more begging Arabs and snowniggers to treat us fairly. No more oil gluts destroying our economy every 10 years.
Are you fucking joking? Renewable and "clean" energy are heavily subsidized by the government. Just look at Tesla.
And you realize where most of the lithium for your renewable comes from don't you? You might not be dealing with Arabs and snow niggers, but you will have to bow down to Chang
Nuclear is and always will be the most cost effective energy source

>>15058068
Nuclear is both more expensive and more heavily subsidised by the government. I'm pro nuclear because nukes, but that's not the reason to have it.

>>15053074
4B assumes that African birth rate will continue to drop, but there will be so much more people to make babies that it will balance out.

>>15053281
>Keeping a billion plus motivated people from moving into Europe (and Asia and the Americas will see major flows too) will require an absolutely massive investment
This sounds like extortion. If and when it comes to that point it would be more cost effective to actually enforce the border and sink migrants trying to cross the med

>>15058067
It's falling at a rapid rate, and while I think it's a combination of lifestyle amd PFAS, I lean more towards the PFAS

>>15052750
Germany fucked themselves by decommissioning nuclear power plants. Russia invaded shortly after.

>>15052750
The longer term it is, the less dangerous it will be. In two months, euros might be hosed, but in 10 years you'll have found or built alternatives.
The only major issue would be a population boom due to immigration

>>15052750
>>15052750
You will see doctor leave your country in droves leaving behind a shortage meaning there aren't enough to treat the sick in your country during your lifespan

>>15055259
Efficiency doesn’t matter when daylight is cut in half.

So, are oil and gas are really made from dinosaurs? And from what made uranium?

>>15058039
Proof?

>>15052750
depends on greenfags - Germoneys have huge lignite deposits that were mothballed when Rusian fartgas became a magical thing healing the climate with its eco-co2 emissions...

now that stench has risen they might reactivate old lignite mines and powerplants

>>15055259
I guess you don't live where it's cold. You get less sun, shorter days, cloudy skies, snow on panels and there's the big issue of the solar panels not being able to produce enough power to heat a home in the winter even if it worked perfectly.

>>15052750
You're fucked more than most.
We've all been sold an infinite growth ponzi by a delusional corporate cult that believes in nothing but gluttonous consumerism and virtue signaling.

Long term solar is bad for Europe, at least the northern part. What are we going to do? Have huge seasonal batteries charged for when the sun is not up as much?

>>15058068
>And you realize where most of the lithium for your renewable comes from don't you?
South America. And CHina has nothing to do with that.

>>15054048
>If they figure out thorium then that cements them as the no. 1 superpower on Earth
this. and now that china and everyone else are on a war footing, what might of taken until the end of the decade to develop modular thorium reactors produced for export could happen as soon as 3-4 years. FLiBe development would happen at the same pace. mid-decade china will begin printing synfuel for export. goodbye petrodollar...and wide eye gweilo would laugh...but not for long...

>>15058324
abiotic oil
Or did you really believe the "le dinosaur fossils!!!" fairy tale?

>>15053138
> manufacturing ability to implement
manufacturing renewables is entirely dependent on hydrocarbons. No turbine blades without oil for plastics, and no industrial metals or concrete without coal.
>Concerning chemical feedstock we already have offshore hydrogen
You mean the hydrogen that's a pain in the ass to store and transport, who's infrastructure only exists on the marginally if at all, and is a net energy sink?
15058689
>le abiotic oil meme
Even if some oil produced abioticly in the upper mantle, if its not in high enough concentrations to be extracted economically it doesn't matter. Tar sands and shale oil are much more accessible and even they have dog shit EROI.

>>15058115
Oil and gas were made from plankton that died in anaerobic conditions and then were subsequently buried under miles of rock

>>15058020
>a 120% return on Thermal energy (not even including the 2 OOM of energy it took to run the lasers) means that fusion is commercially viable in the near-mid term
lol, lmao even

>>15058384
>Have huge seasonal batteries charged for when the sun is not up as much?
Yes, water battery, salt mines etc. are all viable large scale solutions for this.

Water batteries are especially good since they double as a irrigation source.

>>15055359
>Has any country other than Mongolia fallen as hard? Maybe Lithuania?
Portugal maybe?

>>15057159
It just seemed like a good idea at the time.

>>15052750
With the new fusion reactors we will be able to boil w!ter like never before. Don't worry about it op.

>>15055953
just 20 more years and commercial fusion will be a reality

>>15052886
now show death rate, and at one point they will hit a wall, because if fewer whites will be, fewer blacks can be feed.

>>15060244
Without cheap gas there will not be cheap synthetic fertilizers.
Without cheap fuel, whatever fertilizer is made cannot be easily transported to the customers, also farmers cannot afford to run their farm engines.
The green revolution enabled world population to go from 4 to 7 billions, retract those advances, and we will see mass death on a scale never imagined.

>>15052886
Africa has a massive climate and water problem. It's just a very hostile continent to human life, it will never flourish past a certain point.

>>15056704
Boy is the "it's all your fault, white people" meme going to be popular.

>>15057927
Same here in Spain. Seeing this happen everywhere at the same time gives me the impression that its all being coordinated at much higher levels, and that the politicians you claim to be stupid are anything but that.
Look on the bright side, at least youre still far away from Africa

>>15060584
>Africa has a massive climate and water problem.
I hear that all the time. Reality, however, is that Africa is an entire continent and has all kinds of climates. There are even glaciers.
Africa also has some huge rivers that mostly empties into the oceans. Diverting a fraction of teh water for agricultuyre would not be a problem. Desalination is also a thing.

>>15058072
Lmaoing at your post. If its sincere and not just bait I wonder how you manage to cross the road on your own.

>>15052750
Energy production and distribution at low cost, per se, isn't the problem, this was solved a long time ago... The real problem is countries in europe being ruled by globohomos.
Thousands of necks needs to be cut publicly every day for months before that can be resolved.
If not they'll just continue to manufacture crisises.

>>15058020
>Pro-Putin shills going into panic mode over working tokamak.
Did I miss something in the thread? Also wasn't the tokamak thier design?

>EU optimists in the thread think Russia will collapse by next year and they will be able to loot it
Wow, Euros are in for a bad time if they are this delusional - at least we will be able to loot their remaining industry and get it set up in the US and India

>>15060690
Yeah Tokamak's were a soviet design, I guess he brought up Putin because he was seething about the energy crisis wr/t the Kremlin.

>>15060685
This.

>be danish
>media and public go woe is me the gas prices tho
>suggest we build a couple nuclear smr to completely electrify the country
>NOOOOO THINK OF CHERNOBYL
>not relevant
>BUT THE COST
>the government wants to spend $100b on wind turbines, we can get a lot of smr for that money
>BUT THE TIME TO BUILD
>smr don't take long to build and we need to start at some point anyway, we have waited decades for nuclear
>NOOOOOOOOO I DON'T UNDERSTAND NUKES GIVE ME WIND TURBINES

>>15060564
>will not be cheap synthetic fertilizers
le intensive farming is good because my geography textbook said so

>>15052750

>>15058354
I do, it's -10°C here right now, Also super sunny, it's breakfast and our rooftop solar is already running at 120% nameplate capacity. We also believed snow ans winter could become a problem, but it's not.

>>15061132
>Delusional turdtard
And Russia will take Kiev in 2 more days right?

I love how your cope shifted from living vicariously through one white country (Russia) destroying Western hegemony or whatever to now imagining yourself allied with another (USA). You guys and China couldn't even support your BRICS ally throughout this thing as if I need to remind you of your identity crisis.

Anyway our future cheap factory labour will be in Vietnam, not India, you are our IT support we've already established this.

>>15061417
>our rooftop solar is already running at 120% nameplate capacity. We also believed snow ans winter could become a problem, but it's not.
But according electricity maps 0% of Germany's electricity Congress from solar right now.

>>15061441
>0%
Fake news. I'm another Anon and my panels are selling to the grid literally as I type this.

>>15061296
>the government wants to spend $100b on wind turbines,
I would hazard the guess that this is not entirely unrelated to the fact that Vestas is in Denmark.

Someone is making a mint, selling electricity in small circles. I have seen this a few times before.

>>15060647
They're hell-bent on bringing all of Africa here.
I went to a rich school. In my grade was the daughter of a TV phenomenon, a household name, multi-millionaire. She was a high-ranking individual of the youth branch of the labor party. Never done real work a day in her life. Same with the leader of the labor party, a millionaire boomer who doesn't know what a hammer is. Yet they're supposed to represent the working class. They've no idea what kind of policy actually helps them.
Democracy is fucked.
Anyway this isn't /pol/, I just saw my homeland's politics mentioned and got enraged.

>>15052750
Export "refugees" and you'll find a lot more power available.

>>15053288
>Or more simply, if a majority of all humans live in Africa and are of recent African descent, how can the region not shape history?
They'll shape history by reverting the world back to the stone age and ending any sort of history. Then they'll all die outside of Africa due to the pressures of winter on themselves who are not designed to handle such winters.

>>15062437
Exporting "refugees" literally solves every single social and economic problem Europe has.

>>15061441
are you really awake at 7 am on a sunday? what's wrong with you?

>>15062449
China was almost half the world population for most of human history yet they are a speck of it only noticable for being invaded by Mongol Chads or being a source spice, silk and tea for European traders.

>>15058068
Factually wrong

>>15061446
>>15053057
>>15061417

Selling heat?
You showed us heating panels, not PV.

>>15065401
I have both heat and PV. I have used 0 gas for half a decade.

>>15060663
Why are fighting so hard for corrupt cunts who sold us out to Chinks first chance they got? At least read the facts before posting.

>>15060685
This. Good post.

The real problem the EU has is that only our dumbest, poorest and most corruptible people still bother with political careers.

>>15058039
Anon, i got bad news for you. The process of "creating" oil takes takes thousands to millions of years. And we arent really taking that long consuming it. We burn that stuff faster than its replenishing.
We have maybe just tapped into 15 percent of the global oil reserves only because they are relatively accessible, even though some operations have to work on the extreme limits whats technically doable. the step to 30% of the reserves is already impossible to reach, or just way to devastating on the environment or machinery so it isnt even remotely lucrative or feasible. We got shit tons of oil we cant even get to, or which has already been pushed into a tectonic fold. Our problem is with rarely occuring, accessible reserves which is the limiting factor.

>>15066184
We can easily make long chain hydrocarbons, this is not an issue. One of the main reasons the anti-meat campaign is so big is because the biodiesel companies want cheap biomass from feedstock, but we can make it from Fischer-Tropsch etc. too.

All energy is technically renewable and it can all be made cheaper or more expensive, the entire shitshow is a competing lobby, but anyone that unironically wants dirty congested air in their cities is a guaranteed double digit.

>>15056243
>Germany fixed this whole energy crisis
germoid niggers out
you are a slave to fossile fuels

>>15058072
>more expensive
because it is not subsidized
>more heavily subsidised by the government
source : literally nothing
>I'm pro nuclear
you're an oil shill

>>15052750
When will they realize their green utopia isn't ready yet. They'd gladly take everyone to the stone age. They deserve to be conquered and bred out.

>>15053138
So they dropped CO2 free nuclear and mostly kept coal and also lignite. Clever?
Also "replaced" reliable power with intermittent wind and solar is a major show of intelligence.
Then, reducing hydro electric balancing power must be called a stroke of genius, at least it was a stroke.

>>15066243
>because it is not subsidized
It is.
>source : literally nothing
https://www.gao.gov/products/emd-79-52
"
The full cost of nuclear-generated electricity includes the electric utilities' costs, which are passed on to the consumer, and the costs borne by the federal government, which would generally be financed through tax revenues. As of January 31, 1979, 70 nuclear power plants were licensed to operate in the United States. These plants, having a total capacity of about 50,000 megawatts, provided about 13 percent of the nation's electricity. An additional 126 power plants are either under construction or planned. The large financial risks involved with developing commercial nuclear power required federal participation and cooperation with industry. The government's objective was to eventually transfer all federally-developed reactor and fuel cycle technology to a self-sustaining private industry. Meeting this objective has cost the taxpayer an estimated $12.1 billion since 1950. "
Other search results for newer subsidies:
"The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law President Joe Biden signed into law in November includes a $6 billion program intended to preserve the existing U.S. fleet of nuclear power reactors."
“When natural gas is cheap, it is extremely difficult for nuclear to make back the cost that make the revenue that it needs to remain operational and economic,” said Ben King, a senior analyst with the energy and climate division at Rhodium Group.

>you're an oil shill
Nah. Diverse renewable shill actually. Cheap decentralised energy plus nuclear power plants for stability and nukes.

>>15066282
When will realise that while you subversive shits have been bitching and moaning like women for the past decade we have ALREADY went ahead and actually just built it >>15053138.

This is not some theoretical figure. In 2022 alone we installed the equivalent of 178 coal plants in Europe in solar alone in a single year. This while China and even USA briefly got rolling blackouts, South Africa basically has no power generation at all because nigs can't maintain cheap coal. Europe has the most stable grid on the planet both compared to the first and third world.

How much longer are you going to cope before admitting you were wrong? This is not even an issue anyway, just weird spergs supporting 10 year old lobbys that have moved on to more important issues.

>>15066344
>This is not some theoretical figure.
Sure. Look more carefully, it says "Capacity". That is far from the guaranteed daily production 24/7. I hope you don't think solar panels produce at rated capacity at night.

>>15052876
I am Belgian, they asked us to be 'solidair' with Germans. Catch is those are Turks.

>>15052886
>Africa will also drive world economic growth because-
Ah ah ah, Just one problem with your little prediction anon. the african population is composed of niggers. Sorry to debonk you like that sweaty, should have really considered all the factors.

>>15066344
>Europe has the most stable grid on the planet both compared to the first and third world.
I hope you enjoy your stable grid this winter, my European friend :) Slava Ukraini!

>>15055864
>INDIA SUPERPOWER 2030
Bitch Lasagna, please...

>>15052750
Ypipo do not be usin dey heads. I will be helpin dem to fin a solushion jus dis one time. Dis is what I be proposin. Firstly, de drillin machine in alpine mountain that be drilling train tunnels need to be turnin from a sideway to a downward like locomoshion...

>>15052750
pic related for supporting the wrong side

>>15065388
>installed capacity

>>15056581
Don't meddle with bots, they could not ride the subway during these "strong lockdowns". When idiots vomit their blind, use-, sense and mindless paroles it is best not even to tkae a look.

>>15061446
>Fake news. I'm another Anon and my panels are selling to the grid literally as I type this.
How much this month? In real kw/h not installed dreaming.

>>15068353
I literally don't even know, but I got just under 400 eur last month, so you can back calculate from that I suppose.

>>15052750
Not much really, it will blow over in a couple of years.
t. knower

>>15068665
Big if true. So how? Other than biting the bullte snad starting coal fired power station, there are no obvious answers.