/sci/ - Science & Math

How many sides are on dice, how many possible results are there, what are the odds of getting one of those results

Actually an astute observation. Objectively, yes, but within narratives, probabilities exist. its like time itself. we see the flow of time. do you see how I'm using a word to describe a word? time is change, but change isn't time.

>it comes from a fundamental misunderstanding of what probability is
yes

>>15049309
I know the answer to be 6 sides, 1 in 6, just from life and learning. but is it not true that it either is or isn't X number? obviously we must take this for granted for all things, but what is that more basic, only 2 outcomes form of probability known as? just being?

>>15049330
>but is it not true that it either is or isn't X number?
Yes, those are the options, but those options aren't equally likely. It's five times more likely that it isn't x number

>>15049330
So it has a 50% chance of being 1, a 50% chance of being 2, a 50% chance of being 3, a 50% chance of being 4, a 50% chance of being 5, and a 50% chance of being 6. For a grand total of 300% per dice roll

>>15049299
Probability just reflects how frequently something should happen if you repeat the experiment a large number of times.

When you roll a die, you expect the number 1 to appear 1/6 of the time. Its probability is 1/6

>>15049299
>or it isn't
"isn't" is more than one possible scenario though

humans are distributed in a bell curve in fucking every trait, and bell curves arent 50/50

Did you even watched a tutorial on probability?

>>15049299
>>15049330
This is bait but I'm biting anyway.
If your desired event is rolling a 6, it's true that you either roll a 6 or you don't. The important point is that there is only one single way to roll a 6, but five different ways to roll not-a-6.

>>15049299
Not OP, but there's a 100% probability that it will be the number that it will be and a 0% probability that it will be some number that it won't be. There's no such thing as probabilities that aren't 100% or 0%.

OP is kurrect or gorrect or qorrect or correct. It's more or less wrong or right.

There's a 100% posibility you will go to sleep this month, and you will die in before 2300.

Not everything is 50/50 retard.

OP means the process of answering probability after working it out is as simple as 50/50 where one is right and the others are wrong.

>>15050548
disproven by something as basic as fuzzy logic.

cope.

>>15050552
Fuzzy logic sounds like sound revamped version of you're a retard why did you post that

>>15050557
you can use the same data csv file and come to oposite conclusions simply by changing the data ranges of the tabulation columns.

you're a retard that doesn't know stats.

>>15050560
You're so stupid OP out debated you

Probabilities are either 0% or 100%. Lack of information doesn't affect probabilities. Apparent randomness in nature is just human ignorance of the deepest deterministic states.

>>15050561
>>15050566
ok, tell me why this should produce 50/50.

set_random_seed(system.time)
var random_number1 = clamp(rand_range(1, 20) - 5, 50)
var random_number2 = clamp(rand_range(1, 100) + 70, 100)

Tell me why both should produce 50/50 chance?

>>15049299
You have a point there but your hypothesis isn't correct. If you buy lotery you can either win or lose, but the possibilities of you losing are much higher, why? There's only one winning number, lets say 28162 so you can either win with the number 28162 or lose with any other number from 0 to 99999 excepting 28162. There are a lot of possible ways to lose and only one way to win, so having an equal probability in every way there's a much higher chance of you losing than winning.

>>15050571
Lol dint reed

>>/x/

>>15050574
you're a retard that thinks boolean logic of arguments is the same as probability of real life events.

at least read some basic math books before claiming dumb nigger HS shit.
retard.

>>15050571
As my post (>>15050566) indicates, I consider probabilities other than 0% and 100% to be nonsense. I'm not the OP, who accepts 50% probabilities.
In your example, your computer probably has some PRNG fed by various hardware states such as inter-key keyboard delay, NIC interrupts, any special CPU crypto primitives, etc. That doesn't change the fact that the number that will be picked had a 100% probability of being picked and the others a 0% probability. Human ignorance doesn't change objective probabilities.

>>15050598
that doesn't work on non determinist systems.

>but if we look at the past the universe is predetermined and free will is not real

So basically this is a free will is not real meme thread.

>>15050605
If you're an omniscient God, you will know whether heads or tails is going to appear on a coin flip, by definition of omniscient. Say you know that the coin flip will be heads. You don't give tails a 50% chance. That would be nonsense. Maybe a human doing the coin flip gives tails a 50% chance, but there's really no such thing. Tails had a 0% chance.

>>15049299
>how can the probablity of anything ever be something besides 50%?
Exactly! By your reasoning, there's a 50% chance you will die today. Why it hasn't happened yet in all the years you've been alive is a great mystery.
Hey, I think you just proved God is real with your gigantic brain!

>>15050615
>If you are an omniscient G-

GET OUT

>>15050615
that would mean that he knows before you were born if you're gonna be saved or condemned, so your actions even before you are born, so this means christ sacrifice was for nothing and all christian doctrine is irrelevant.

Which breaks most abrahamic faifths into nonsense.

>>15050620
>>15050621
It's just a thought experiment. You don't have to be a theist. The omniscient God can be replaced by some advanced machine or -- here's the kicker -- eliminated entirely from the picture without replacement.

>>15050634
prove the universe is determinists.

Frequentist interpretation: If this event could have happened a massive number of times, the proportion of times that it does is its probability

>>15049299
The more information you have to use to predict an event the more the probability goes closer to either 0% or 100%. A 50/50 probability represents a drastic lack of information to be used for predictability. For example you cannot accurately predict the accuracy of the thumb flipping the coin so the only information you have is that the coin has two sides. Thusly with no further information the probability is 50%. However if you video tape millions of people flipping coins then input the data into deep learning AI the AI could be used to give a result closer to 0% or 100% probability of a certain result.