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/sci/ - Science & Math


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14759461 No.14759461 [Reply] [Original]

Hey just wanted to share some fitting and number projections for critique and feedback.

Took the CDC numbers and the UK's NIH data to come up with a fit for the spread. Of course I don't imagine this to be not change or have 2nd waves but the simple trend and fit seem to look good.

I used the exponential of the equation that describes a charge in the capacitor while being charged at a constant voltage. I have 2 parameters and get an nice fit.

This graph shows the numbers in the UK. The next shows the numbers in the US

>> No.14759470
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14759470

>>14759461
The US seems to have a major problem with the spread. The "time constant" (b) is for some reason larger and appears to extend the spread. Maybe a spatial component that has to do with the size of the US. The (a) parameter might be proportional to the number of partners they come into contact with.

>> No.14759477

>>14759470
I expect extra waves to be accounted for by adding another term like so
f = exp(a*(1-exp(-x/b)) +c*(1-exp(-(x-x0)/d)))

where x0 is the delayed outbreak of the next wave with different (c) and (d) parameters.

>> No.14760001

>>14759461
so 4000 people are going to get the niggerpox?

>> No.14760010

>>14759461
So from this we can tell typical British gay piss orgies have between 8 and 9 men participating? Am I interpreting this correctly?

>> No.14761419

>>14760010
I'm not sure if the monke pox is spread via piss. I though it was ass eating orgies that super spread it.

>>14760001
For the brits first wave. Surely the US gays will cause a second wave of infections back to the UK. However, it seems the brits are less disgusting than there american counterparts.

>> No.14761441

Just don't have gay sex. It's that simple.

>> No.14761509

>>14761441
Just wear a mask, it’s that simple

>> No.14761569

I suggest you model it as a differential equation instead, makes it more easy to understand how the terms relate to various phenomena.

>> No.14761641

>>14761569
Yeah I'm wondering how the SEIR differential equation model relates to my fitting model.

I simply chose my equation because i looked at the data on a log scale and it looked like a capacitor charging up. As far as i know the SEIR model (differential model) doesn't have a analytical solution. You have to simulate it like a projectile with drag.

Also exponentials of exponentials aren't seen often right? They don't come up in any diff eq solutions that i remember.

>> No.14761647

>>14759461

could it spread to stray dogs and cats? it may be a problem in the third world

>>14761627

>> No.14761766

>>14761647
If it spread to dogs then it would just maybe spread to who ever was in the same household.

I doubt that would cause a major increase in cases.

I worry that kids will get it once the school year starts. Once the kids get it then we'll see a big spread.

>> No.14761776

>>14761509
Doesn't work to stop airborne viruses, but abstinence is 100% effective against an STD.

>> No.14761777
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14761777

>>14759461
viruses don't exist lmao

>> No.14761781

>>14761647
>>14761766
Only if they're being buttfucked by adults. There's no way to pass it except for fluid membrane or blood contact.

So far the lesions on affected animals have been in the anal region so... You know how they got it.

>> No.14761785

>>14761776
how do you sleep with empty scull without brain?

>> No.14761792

>>14761781
I mean I assume if the dog has it then every time is licks a person on any part of their skin it will spread it and vice versa. e.g. ass eating give pox around the mouth on the face.

>> No.14761800

>>14761792
The virus is transmitted by the fluid from the pustules. Men get the lesions on their penis, groin, and ass and transmit to the ass, penis, groin, or mouth of people receiving.

This is why you see the majority presenting with pustules in these regions.

>> No.14761803

>>14761785
You won't die if you spend a few months not committing sodomy. Just wait it out and the "pandemic" will end.

>> No.14761807

>>14761800
okay so if the dog has it on or in its mouth then everywhere it lick will also get infected.

>> No.14761814

>>14761807
Only in certain conditions but yes it could be a problem. This is why we should very seriously crack down on homosexual zoophiles whenever pets are discovered with the disease.

>> No.14762025

>>14759461
the world would be a better place if epidemiologists were all brutally tortured and then murdered

>> No.14762044

>>14761781
It spreads skin to skin. Just brushing against someone probably not enough though.

>> No.14762100
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14762100

>>14759461
how closely is this following the plan?
for those not in the know, a bunch of "scientists" along with a guy from the Gates foundation sat down last year and planned out a "fictional" monkeypox outbreak that just so happened to fall within a week of an actual monkeypox outbreak.

Pic is from https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/NTI_Paper_BIO-TTX_Final.pdf

>> No.14762104

>>14761777
That's not from God

>> No.14762134

>>14762025
the last refuge of someone with no argument

>> No.14762145

Hopefully it claims the life of every faggot on earth. Inshallah

>> No.14762169

Actually one point I want to bring up in the theoretical field of curve fitting. If you have a lot of points in a row that are above/below the curve. Then it's a redflag that there are dynamics that your curve is missing.

>> No.14762373

>>14762044
Pus to mucus membrane. Skin to skin and then transfer to the face (by rubbing without washing hands) is how you'd get it.

>> No.14762796
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14762796

>>14762373
you are samefag, retard and shill

>> No.14764870

>>14762796
Why do you think so? He seems to disagree with the guy he replied to.