/sci/ - Science & Math

>>12601093
>Since they aren’t dying of COVID
But they are. At least 40% of excess deaths in that age group are directly caused by COVID-19. The rest is either due primarily to unreported COVID deaths or opioid overdoses.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2774445

>>12601217
>The rest is either due primarily to unreported COVID deaths
both you and the article are basing that on nothing

>>12601244
The surges in deaths in different regions coincided with rising cases in those areas. A lockdown is only deadly when cases also tend to be high?

>>12601093
>>12601244
Retard chink. Learn English
>>>/int/

>>12601256
Flawed statistical reasoning.

>>12601217
I don’t really but it. How can you be sure all the COVID-19 deaths died from COVID-19 and not with? Did they even do pathology and culture virus? Or did they just call everybody with a positive PCR test in the last 28 days a COVID-19 death. Maybe that were the people, who have died anyway. And 100 percent or something similar of all excess mortality is related to the non pharmaceutical interventions.

>>12601270
jesus christ go back lol

>>12601275
Fair points, and maybe the people who died during lockdown would have died anyway, so it wasn't a result of the lockdown measures.

>>12601244
Nothing, except for opioid deaths being a primary cause of excess deaths in recent years and excess deaths being correlated with surges in COVID. Retard.

>>12601281
You need me to hand-hold you through why the statistical reasoning is flawed? The greatest bump in deaths in that age range happened during a rise in cases, because a good share of those deaths resulted from covid-19 infection. But deaths in that age group were higher for other periods than when case numbers were rising

>>12601275
>How can you be sure all the COVID-19 deaths died from COVID-19 and not with?
Gee, you're right, it must just be one big coincidence that people keep dying with COVID. Better publish this revelation in the journal of Anonymous Coroner Science.

>>12601303
Looks like you're misreading anon's post as "actually nobody died from covid"

>>12601297
That doesn't contradict the statistical argument.

>>12601303
Two German pathology experts have, independently from each other, found significantly above 2/3 of all people labeled as COVID-19 deaths would have died even without their SARS-CoV-2 infection.

>>12601217

They count deaths from the lockdown as being deaths from COVID.

The lockdowns 1. Harm mental health and 2. Force doctors to postpone "non-essential" medical tests, which sometimes can detect deadly diseases early. Both of these cause death in younger people.

>>12601307
No, I'm reading it as "How can you be sure all the COVID-19 deaths died from COVID-19 and not with?"

>>12601312
If the argument is
>most of those 62% of excess deaths which were non-corona were actually underreported corona deaths, because the surge in deaths coincides with rising cases
then it does contradict that argument, because the surge pattern would still appear even if none of those 68% were covid deaths

>>12601325
Oh, well that's a valid question. Assuming coronavirus is widespread, you're definitely going to find traces of it in the group of people who died of any cause

>>12601320
In Germany or in the USA? Germany has had no excess deaths, so that's believable. The USA's excess deaths coincide with the amount of COVID-19 deaths. It would be a huge reach to suggest that the USA would have coincidentally had 300k excess deaths in a year without SARS-CoV-2, and the also align so neatly to the amount of deaths that were diagnosed as COVID-19 related.

>>12601307
Thanks.
He didn’t catch that the study is only the age group 25-44 and I made the provocative statement about this age group, because without the quality data we just don’t know, maybe some did indeed die because of it. The quoted study proves nothing.

>>12601320
Three Japanese McArthur genius grant doctors with over 300 confirmed kills each have confirmed that everyone who has gotten, will ever get, or will never get COVID will die.

Excess deaths are excess deaths, retard.

>>12601093
Obviously Covid is a hoax to impose upon us totalitarian measures by paranoiac, out of touch with reality cowards.

>>12601323
>They count deaths from the lockdown as being deaths from COVID.
Proof?

>>12601335
Finding a trace of COVID does not mean a death is counted as caused by COVID. You're assuming pathologists are idiots.

>>12601342
>He didn’t catch that the study is only the age group 25-44
I did, retard. That's what this thread is about.

>>12601358
it's happened before. A positive PCR test which is not false means "a trace of covid" much of the time. A pathologist has no way of knowing how much covid is present unless they know the cycle count of the positive test, which is not generally recorded

>>12601348
>justdaflu

>>12601341
Why does it matter do you imply the virus is different? If Germany has so few COVID-19 deaths and already most of them aren’t causally attributed to SARS-CoV-2, it implies it could be even more true for the COVID-19 deaths in the USA and the excess mortality could be due to something else. Like for example a massive shrinking of working class. The data seen is fitting quiet well with the long term trajectory and correlation to joblessness claims is there too.

>>12601370
>it's happened before.
Where?

>A positive PCR test which is not false means "a trace of covid" much of the time.
That doesn't respond to what I said. No one is counting gunshot victims with COVID as dying from COVID.

>>12601374
deaths were measured differently

>>12601376
>If Germany has so few COVID-19 deaths and already most of them aren’t causally attributed to SARS-CoV-2
If you can't even understand the softener between COVID deaths and excess deaths, just stop posting.

>>12601378
are you hegelian dialectic trolling or something?
https://www.freedomfoundation.com/washington/washington-health-officials-gunshot-victims-counted-as-covid-19-deaths/
https://www.kmov.com/news/colorado-coroner-calling-out-how-state-classifies-covid-19-deaths/article_297e3550-4131-11eb-9f01-ffe3e11d0f46.html

>>12601381
And?

>>12601376
>Why does it matter do you imply the virus is different?
Different health care available, difference in baseline health. Obesity is a major comorbidity, and Americans are a bunch of fatties.

>it could be even more true for the COVID-19 deaths in the USA and the excess mortality could be due to something else.
Okay, so why blame lock downs? Germany has had stricter lock downs than the USA.

>>12601374
Having a car run over you while you had COVID does not mean COVID killed you.

>>12601392
and comparing the number of reported covid deaths to the number of reported flu deaths will make covid seem disproportoinately deadly

>>12601346
I don’t think you fully understand my point, but that’s fine. You don’t seem to be interested in honest search for truth or science in general anyway.
>>12601369
That would imply you intentionally misread my statement.
>>12601374
>clinics get more money for disease X patients
>massive testing for disease X
>disease Y that’s usually there seemingly disappears, while X gets more and more at the same time
>all test are real-time qRT-PCR and most based on flawed test designs too
>false positive rate of 3-5 percent and you test do a test on everybody, who dies.
It’s all so easy to see once you’ve seen it.

>>12601391
Your own source says those are just dashboard numbers that are removed from the death count.

>24 million recorded cases of covid in US
>at least 9 unconfirmed case for every confirmed case

Remind me again why a vaccine is even needed at this point? By the time you finish vaccinating everyone, the first batch of people would have lost their immunity already

>>12601401
And what does that have to do with my post?

>>12601411
You're referring to the public health expert saying
>We will be removing them over time from our death count
yes? is there anything else?

>>12601406
Those aren't reported flu deaths, they are estimates, higher than reported deaths. If anything the comparison makes COVID seem less deadly than it is.

>>12601420
>24 million recorded cases of covid in US
>at least 9 unconfirmed case for every confirmed case
That doesn't seem correct, although it would be contingent on how long immunity lasts, but that could mean 225 million people already have antibodies (66% of the population). Even in NYC in September, the antibody rate was around 25%. I've wanted to get my antibodies tested since I've had numerous exposures, but I'm not willing to risk going to a health clinic at the moment to do so.

>>12601408
>I don’t think you fully understand my point, but that’s fine
I understood it, it's an idiotic point. Excess deaths are excess deaths.

>>12601374
That looks like nothing lockdown-worthy (even if lockdowns would have worked).

>>12601387
Your issue is you don’t get that excess mortality isn’t proven to be a result of COVID-19. If you lock people up insight and bombard them with fear there is no chance you won’t see a massive wave of excess death. I already explained to you, why a positive test doesn’t mean much at all.
>>12601393
>Different health care available, difference in baseline health.
Debatable. However I kind of agree. Much of the COVID-19 deaths was doctors throwing the kitchen sink at it. Overdosing hydroxychloroquine, remdesivir and mechanical ventilation of patients with strong relative contraindications. That didn’t happen to the same degree in Germany.
>Obesity is a major comorbidity, and Americans are a bunch of fatties
It’s more related to high age and Germans on average are older. I think we shouldn’t see the differences. There is no indication of any of the non pharmaceutical measures doing any significant difference so the explanation of the higher death rate is stronger insensitive to classify somebody as COVID-19 patient/death and to practice over treatment.

>>12601435
I doubt the CDC is estimating that a 90 year old man who dies from heart failure a month after having had the flu is estimated as one of those deaths.

>>12601447
>insight
inside

>>12601447
>If you lock people up insight and bombard them with fear there is no chance you won’t see a massive wave of excess death.
So why hasn't Germany experienced excess deaths? Their measures were stricter than the USA's. Same for Australia. Many countries took more significant steps and didn't see a rise in deaths. Others went about it in a very sloppy fashion (USA, UK) and did poorly.

>>12601462
Are Germany's excess deaths counted in the same way that our excess deaths are?

A reminder than in Sweden 2020 was not the total extinction year, not double or triple deaths year, but not even the worst year in decade. In fact it was 3-4th worst if you'll compare it to 2010s. So much for the spooky pandemics.

So if it's the same in your country, covid is confirmed a seasonal cold. And if you have it much worse, then blame lockdowns.

>>12601408
>That would imply you intentionally misread my statement.
How so?

Sage chink antivaxx threads
Report chink antivaxx threads
Hide chink antivaxx threads

>>12601451
Don't know. That anon is correct though, actual flu deaths (listed on the death certificate) are only about 5k annually. Then the CDC looks at pneumonia deaths, hospitalization rates, shoves them in a model and comes up with a number. They've done the same thing for SARS-CoV-2, and the model shows COVID-19 deaths are being under counted.

>>12601483
computer modelling is the lowest form of science

>>12601464
It's just a comparison of the averages of the previous year or three years. The amount over the average is the excess. Germany's deaths line up with previous years, the USA exceeded previous years by a very wide margin. In particular, the USA's pneumonia deaths went through the roof. I don't know if Germany has any data that shows pneumonia deaths for 2020 and previous years, it would be interesting to look at.

>>12601447
>Your issue is you don’t get that excess mortality isn’t proven to be a result of COVID-19. If you lock people up insight and bombard them with fear there is no chance you won’t see a massive wave of excess death.
From what? Suicides are very obvious so it should be pretty easy for you to demonstrate that a significant portion of that 300k+ deaths are self inflicted / domestic violence. Or is your argument people are sad so they drop dead of pneumonia, respiratory failure, blood clots etc?

>>12601489
So then don't go with that, go with death certificates, 5k flu deaths to 300k COVID-19 deaths.

>>12601501
then my original point stands, that the deaths are not recorded the same way

>>12601467
>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v341VNPgL50&t=2s
sweden voluntarily locked down much harder than many countries, though it's worth noting compared to it's neighbors with compatible populations and healthcare systems who had even stricter lockdowns, they've done much much worse.

>>12601497
stress and unhappiness have a real effect on the immune system / overall bodily functioning

>>12601510
Exactly your points stands so we can agree covid makes the flu look like a fucking joke.

>>12601511
Isn’t that guy an atheist? Not so smart is he

>>12601510
>Dont' g

>>12601524
is this satire?

>>12601511
>they've done much much worse.
Worse than what? Than having 3-4th worst year in a decade? Even if they did, going a bit worse than average is a non-reason for any lockdown stuff (otherwise why weren't you doing it half of all years?)

>>12601408
>>disease Y that’s usually there seemingly disappears, while X gets more and more at the same time
Right, I'm sure lockdowns, masks, social distancing, etc. has no effect on the flu. It's all a big conspiracy. Excess deaths are just gunshot victims. LOL

>>12601532
Worst year in the last decade for total deaths, highest rise in all-cause mortality from one year to the next in at least a decade.

>>12601532

>>12601511
>sweden voluntarily locked down
If my government would have introduced no restrictive measures, but strongly asked everyone to stay home and wear masks, I would have gone out maybe a couple time a month with the mask on. But now I'm doing my best to go out literally every day and also shop only in stores who don't ask for mask. Only shops like these deserve my money.

>>12601558
>i'm a retard
yeah we know

>>12601547
>Worst year in the last decade for total deaths
Which is still better than several years per capita. Swedish population is growing + becoming older.
>highest rise in all-cause mortality from one year to the next in at least a decade.
Correct, because 2019 was anomalously good year, so many deaths in 2020 were just delayed deaths from 2019. It's just return to the trend, if you'll factor it in, 2020 will get below average.

>>12601574
Retards are the shops and restaurants who rob themselves. That's especially true for the smaller shops (and covid truthers must be getting deliveries for everything anyway). Meanwhile sane stores get a nice bonus.

>>12601548
All these blue bars just transform into a somewhat above the average year.

>>12601601
it's annoying how every covid thread just comes down to the same back and forth argument of if human life has value or not.

>>12601582
>It's just return to the trend, if you'll factor it in, 2020 will get below average.
2019 was 3.8% under 2018 in total deaths. 2020 was 9.2% over 2019 in total deaths.

9.2 - 3.8 = 5.4%. How is that a return to the trend? How is that below average?

>>12601521
if you take death numbers at face value without understanding they were calculated differently, otherwise you might as well conclude that 400mm is more distance than 3 feet

>>12601629
except we established that the way in which the numbers are calculated differently biases it toward making covid look better than it actually is. Which is the exact opposite of what you're claiming.

>>12601620
But whose life?
Life of covid-denier who goes out? Choosing freedom over a tiny chance of death is absolutely OK (and he is also free to stay inside if he wants).
Life of covid-truther who voluntarily lockdowns, almost never goes out and only carefully receives deliveries? His chances to die will be almost nonexistent (and if they are still huge, then covid is unstoppable with any measures).
Life of covid-truther who constantly goes out yet claims that it's literally murder and others should be put under the house arrest? Yes, I'd say that life of such a malicious hypocrite is of negative value.

>>12601646
This weird us vs them NEET fantasy world you've built for yourself is fucking weird.

>>12601620
it's not whether a human life has value, its the exchange rate between human life and freedom

>>12601642
No we haven't.

>>12601625
2010 had 90K deaths. Back then Swedish population was 9.3 millions. Now it's 10.3. That will give you around 100K deaths to surpass - more than in 2020. That's also true for a couple of other years in 2010s. That's even without adjusting for 2019.

>>12601558
>If my government would have introduced no restrictive measures, but strongly asked everyone to stay home and wear masks
I don't know where you're from, but many parts of the USA didn't pass strict mandates and simply asked for people to heed their advice. Eventually harsher mandates were passed because Americans didn't listen. Even in Sweden, the government passed stricter measures because its citizens were being too lenient.

>>12601093
yeah, crystal clear.
congrats on your Nobel

>>12601655
>I want to close businesses, to force people to stop working and ban them from exiting their houses. They must probably survive on governmental help (if they are supposed to survive).
>But it's you who is creating a NEET-fantasy!

>>12601668
>>12601483
>>12601501

>>12601676
>2010 had 90K deaths.
Which was in line with 2009 and 2011. Death rate has fallen since then. 2019 to 2020 had a larger rise in death rate than any other consecutive years.

>>12601687
unemployment is up 1% you freak, stop being so fucking dramatic. Just because you've never worked a day in your life doesn't mean everyone else can just stop working.

>>12601693
Correct, because 2019 was anomalously good year, so many deaths in 2020 were just delayed deaths from 2019. It's just return to the trend, if you'll factor it in, 2020 will get below average.

If you will continue to copypaste your claims, I will do the same.

>>12601699
>Just because you've never worked a day in your life doesn't mean everyone else can just stop working.
Absolutely correct! Now you can see why lockdowns are madness which hurts everyone and doesn't even stop covid. Only NEETs like you will enjoy the lockdowns.

>>12601703
>It's just return to the trend, if you'll factor it in, 2020 will get below average.
No. See >>12601625. The excess for 2020 far exceeded the "delayed deaths" from 2019.

>>12601708
you can't even read can you?
>and doesn't even stop covid
citation needed

>>12601711
As we see in >>12601676, even without adjusting for 2019, 2020 isn't the worst year in the decade (let alone the disaster year). If you'll adjust for 2019, it will get below average.

>>12601692
how does that make covid look better than it is?

>>12601715
>you can't even read can you?
No, it's you who can barely read and who also can't think. Because you just proved why lockdowns are harmful for the majority of population (and also impossible to hold).
>citation needed
Sorry, it looks like you are from the parallel world where covid is stopped in USA and Europe.

>>12601307
3/3 of all people will die regardless of everything

i hope you all die

>>12601725
you're responding to this >>12601374
but when you compare death certificates to death certificates which you have a point about being more accurate, you end up with ~50k flu deaths over 8 years compared to 345k+ in one year.

>>12601558
>but strongly asked everyone to stay home and wear masks, I would have gone out maybe a couple time a month with the mask on. But now I'm doing my best to go out literally every day
Why do retards like this guy do this? Is it a thing where bluecollar spastics try to reclaim just some semblance of of power in their otherwise powerless wagecuck life by going against the authority? Fucking kek

>>12601727
Sorry I assumed you weren't a complete child, and your argument wasn't literally
>IF THERE'S A SINGLE COVID CASE LOCKDOWN DOESN'T WORK!!!!!!!!

>>12601290
Opioid overdose deaths is surging due to covid lockdowns. This is what explans the majority of excess mortality among young people.

>>12601752
USA and European countries have a SINGLE COVID CASE? Sorry, your metaphors are too rich for me. I only see that USA is doing worse than Sweden, but guess that Sweden has 1/2 covid case then.

>>12601748
Reactionaries don't have principles, agency, or rationality, their entire existence, is simply reacting to those who do.

>>12601762
Sweden locked down harder than the US as established already >>12601511
Try to keep up.

>>12601748
Yes, I hold little power to topple the buildbackbetterers. But at least I have the power to make a minor change in my neighborhood, and I will use it to the maximum.

>>12601770
Then it's proven that treating your citizens like cattle leads to them treating you like a butcher.

>>12601771
If your neighbors are anything like you you're doing the world a favor, so keep on keeping on friend.

>>12601745
No, comparing death certificates to death certificates is *less* accurate because what is reported as a flu death vs a covid death are completely different. Bumping up the flu numbers to incorporate hospitalizations, pneumonia deaths, cardiovascular issues, etc, brings the comparison to a more accurate one, but even then, covid deaths are still overcounted

>>12601748
You can try going out too, it is healthier than staying inside in three masks.

>>12601748
lol we just had four years of people on the other side screaming about the president and burning down main street because a guy got killed in minnesota, choosing to not wear a mask pales in comparison

>>12601786
>because what is reported as a flu death vs a covid death are completely different.
source?

>>12601766
That’s so sad

>>12601784
Sure. I've already seen one shop which asked for masks close (and those who did not are doing OK). That's of course not just my doing, a lot of people feel comfier without muzzles (and covidists are probably getting deliveries anyway). You don't bully people who buy from you.

>>12601766
If someone is trying to mug you, reacting is perfectly natural.

>>12601800
source that it's not?

>>12601825
A death certificate is a death certificate, procedures remain unchanged. The burden of proof is on you to show some weird conspiracy.

>>12601791
Why do Americans have to make everything about politics? No one cares you faggot. I don’t see any favoured political leaning for anti mask people in my country. Only thing they have in common is that they’re usually bluecollar workers like a bunch of retards and fucking ugly going by their facebook pics

>>12601833
procedure for recording an influenza death was never to run a PCR test for influenza virus and record any positive result as an influenza death

>>12601841
which country?

>>12601841
Imagine one of them coughing on you (and then you will die). Mask protects not you but others from you, remember?

>>12601843
And that isn't the procedure for covid either so I don't see your point

>>12601854
yes it is

>>12601852
>Mask protects not you but others from you
how was this scientifically determined

>>12601850
Denmark
>>12601850
I’m healthy so don’t care. They’re low IQ faggots lol

>>12601869
Afraid it isn't feel free to try to prove me wrong though.

>>12601467
If adjusted for demographics it was the 4 lowest year since 2010.

>>12601850
Denmark
>>12601852
I’m healthy, don’t care. They’re still low IQ faggots

>>12601093
>clearly they must be dying from lockdown measures.

Are you a social scientist by any chance?

>>12601348
the gigachad should be instead
>boomercide and cleansing of fat diabetics is a good thing, lets open EVERYTHING back up

So I will clear some things up. Flu/Influenza deaths are just a statistical number made up by looking at winter/early spring “excess” death compared to other times. The actual number of people dying with PCR confirmed Influenza A, B or C is rather small, if somebody has it I would be interested. Even more so in plaque assay confirmed infections. Even more tricky question in how many cases was there just a known bacterial infection at site and how often was there an infection of some microbe that we can’t test for/culture. This stuff is more tricky than many understand.
MDR caused pneumonia have been ticking up for years is there decent evidence of there being any more than what the trends predict?
I have yet to see evidence.

>>12601446
>lockdown decreased deaths
>therefore lockdowns are unnecessary
Why are /pol/tards so dumb?

>>12601451
I doubt it too. What is your point?

>>12601426
Yes, it has nothing to do with reported COVID deaths. Some state's dashboard that has prioritized showing data quickly is irrelevant.

>>12601447
>Your issue is you don’t get that excess mortality isn’t proven to be a result of COVID-19.
I never said it was. In fact I said the opposite. >>12601217

Learn how to read.

>If you lock people up insight and bombard them with fear there is no chance you won’t see a massive wave of excess death.
Wrong.

>>12601093
suicide rates in that age bracket have skyrocketed because of lockdown.

>>12602507
You have no idea how relevant it is, all we have is some public official's pledge that they "will be removed". Why didn't it happen by the time he made that statement? Why is it showing up in the dashboard at all?

>>12601281
Anyone who criticises me is part of a political group I hate

>>12601511
>Sweden voluntarily locked down
That’s dishonest almost everything open (few exceptions), no very large gatherings, but significant mass gatherings, next to no masks. People did meet freely and anybody, who claims Swedes just stayed home is wrong.

Why is it so hard for some people to accept the disastrous side effects of lockdowns and other covid containment measures on society?

>>12601287
This is highly unlikely, i would expect a really small percentage of that 40% to habe died *with* covid

>>12602927
Because those demons in power use argument like "without lockdown there would be more deaths and suffering" which is undeinable argument since no one knows if this lockdown really prevents anything. It's same argument as "if i take vitamin C i prevent death from cancer". You simply do not know if the statement is true or not but you accept it as fact. Which normie nigger cattle appearently do.

>>12602927
It isnt, these are genuine issues, its just when retards then try to justify that these are more significant than preventing actual people from fucking dying and that lockdowns dont work bullshit is when it becomes hard.

>>12602960
But the data in the OP indicates we're not doing a very good job of preventing people from dying. The lockdowns might even be killing people.

>>12602968
That is simply not the case. Pray tell how exactly is one going to die in the shelter if their house? Never mind OPs data not even implying that lockdowns are failing in the first place.

>>12602960
>these are more significant than preventing actual people from fucking dying
they are. I'm not on board with ruining a million lives to save a hundred thousand

>>12602960
Ok sweetie. How many studies do you want before you accept there is no evidence significant impact of non pharmaceutical interventions?
>there is no evidence that more restrictive nonpharmaceutical interventions (“lockdowns”) contributed substantially to bending the curve of new cases in England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, or the United States in early 2020
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/eci.13484
>Inferences on effects of NPIs are non-robust and highly sensitive to model specification. Claimed benefits of lockdown appear grossly exaggerated
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.22.20160341v3
>government actions such as border closures, full lockdowns, and a high rate of COVID-19 testing were not associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality
https://secure.jbs.elsevierhealth.com/action/consumeSsoCookie?redirectUri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Faction%2FconsumeSharedSessionAction%3FJSESSIONID%3DaaajbFpeKG5bn4b6kZBCx%26MAID%3DCplkNENDwn%252BTFpyc12qLBg%253D%253D%26SERVER%3DWZ6myaEXBLF%252B9vQ18y9JMw%253D%253D%26ORIGIN%3D801102648%26RD%3DRD&code=null&acw=Secure;SameSite=None&utt=

>>12603012
>Official data from Germany’s RKI agency suggest strongly that the spread of the coronavirus in Germany receded autonomously, before any interventions become effective
https://advance.sagepub.com/articles/preprint/Comment_on_Dehning_et_al_Science_15_May_2020_eabb9789_Inferring_change_points_in_the_spread_of_COVID-19_reveals_the_effectiveness_of_interventions_/12362645
> the decline in infections in England...began before full lockdown…[S]uch a scenario would be consistent with...Sweden, which began its decline in fatal infections shortly after the UK, but did so on the basis of measures well short of full lockdown
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.02090.pdf
>the UK lockdown was both superfluous (it did not prevent an otherwise explosive behavior of the spread of the coronavirus) and ineffective (it did not slow down the death growth rate visibly).
https://www.datascienceassn.org/sites/default/files/Illusory%20Effects%20of%20Non-pharmaceutical%20Interventions%20on%20COVID19%20in%20Europe.pdf
>stay at home orders, closure of all non-essential businesses and requiring the wearing of facemasks or coverings in public was not associated with any independent additional impact
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20088260v2

>>12602987
>covid has an IFR of ~0.2%
>lower in the described age group
>most fatalities are above age 70 or so
Thus it is unlikely for us to see a large surge in fatalities amongst those age 25-45, let alone for them to see the largest jump in death rate. However, the 25-44 age bracket did see the greatest jump in mortality rate. People who should not be dying are, even accounting for a widespread novel virus. It is clear from this we are doing something wrong. Our efforts to contain the coronavirus need to be reconsidered and examined based on the actual net effects on society and efficacy

>>12603028
>these strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe. We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures … experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1
>the model does not support [the] estimate that lockdown reduced the case reproduction number R by 81% or that more than three million deaths were averted by non-pharmaceutical
interventions.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.26.20202267v1
>The case of Sweden, where the authors find the reduction in transmission to have been only moderately weaker than in other countries despite no lockdown having occurred, is prima facie evidence
https://www.nicholaslewis.org/did-lockdowns-really-save-3-million-covid-19-deaths-as-flaxman-et-al-claim/
>general social distancing was also projected to reduce the number of cases but increase the total number of deaths compared with social distancing of over 70 only
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588

>>12601320
Bullshit. The number is 100%.

Seriously, that statement is completely meaningless.

>>12603003
Its not ruining. And im on board in any case

>>12603012
Are you like actually retarded? Have you actually looked at any daily new cases over time graph? Can you even read a graph? Are you literate?

>>12603074
Bullshit. Many of the owners of permanently closed businesses will never have an equally successful venture for the rest of their lives. That's not to say that the lockdown only harmed business owners, I'm just giving an example of a ruined life.

>>12603080
cope

>>12603080
>new cases
Yes and I get the technical details and on top of that I’m also one of the few people with the complete picture.
Positive real-time-qRT-PCR test means nothing. The more you test/unspecific the test criteria are and the less qualified the individual tester and the individual lab/ laboratory worker is and the less the thing you test for the more you “new case” value will be detached from any reality. A new case could just mean the lab was contaminated or they did run to many cycles or messed up the cooking process. It’s irrelevant.

>>12603034
You do realise that eve though the most high risk patients are above 70 years old it does not by any means mean that lower age ranges cannot also be severy impacted or should not be dying. Ill tell you more, youre also misnterpreting the data the CDC posted. What they mean is that the percentage of excess deaths that are attributed ti covid are largest amkng 25-44 year olds. If any of you lockdown deniers actually had a brain this woulde made perfect sense because as this age group is largery more healthy, a larger excess death percentage would be attributed to this range unlike 70+ year olds, which might also be suffering from the usual seasonal shit like care home flu epidemics, at least in the UK, quite common. MOREOVER, such a low percentage of excess death can be attributed to Covid-19 because US testing is fucking horrible, and these numbers are probably pretty large underestimates of the impact of Covid-19, and this is assuming that the CDC data used was deaths with patiens having a prior positive Covid-19 test, because it would be pointless giving them one post-mortem. If this isnt enough for you i dont know what is. But i can tell you for sure lockdowns arent fucking killing people or ruining your Americans precious liberty. Im fucking sick and tired of this shit.

>>12603103
Literally what? You know countries arent stupid and they have patient records and databases, and they can see if a person already had a test? Any new case is genuenly new. At least in the UK all covid cases are tracked, and the new cases statistic is absolutely not detached from reality.

>>12603086
So what do you care for more? Some cash, or a human life?

>>12603129
False dichotomy.

>>12603103
>>12603126
Also I misinterpreted what you were saying but im still calling bullshit because: a. how do you even fuck a simple test like that up, its that easy,
b. all lab texhnitians handling the tests are definetly well trained
c. What obscure criteria? Theyre literally testing 1 thing and one thing only: corona antigen yes? Corona antigen no?
d. The probability of such statistic detachment from real data happening nationwide is astronomically low. Youd have to be tripping to believe it.

>>12603126
>You know countries arent stupid and they have patient records and databases, and they can see if a person already had a test?
The point is not the claim that some infected individuals get tested multiple times and end up in the statistic as several cases, although that could happen.
My point is a positive test doesn’t mean an infection and it certainly doesn’t mean anything clinically relevant. Real-time-qRT-PCR just amplifies short mRNA and it doesn’t prove, if there is viable virus. There is a false operational positive rate, most governments seem to be too incompetent or unwilling to get that rate, but if you do let’s say 100 test on negative probes and send them in 1-5 will depending on primer design, melting temperature, experience of the lab worker, genes targeted and ct-value etc be positive anyway. So if you test millions of people without symptoms “new” cases will be going through the roof. Even if there is little or no infectious agent replicating or even present in them.

>>12603147
I do not believe so. Livelyhood != life. Im sure any business owner would like to be rather alive than dead.

>>12603152
Suicide rate's gone up a bit

>>12601256
Rising cases correspond with harsher lockdown measures even when lockdowns already exist

>>12603150
>all lab texhnitians handling the tests are definetly well trained
No they aren’t you need to be specifically trained and it needs years. There aren’t suddenly enough people with a high level of competence to stuff industrial scale testing labs.
>test criteria antigen
Most test aren’t antigen based, but PCR. And I’m talking about, when a test happens.
Nothing personal, but everything I’m telling you is flying over your head. You seem like a nice guy, but I mean, if you aren’t into the topic you won’t understand the testing thing.
But look at the studies on the non pharmaceutical interventions.

>>12603151
Im not sure how you can get false positives on a negative samples at that high rate. These tests are very precise. And i understand your point of not every positive test representing a threatening infection, but the virus has been repeatedly reported to be incredibly transmissible - even if the person does not have a very significant viral load it is important to then self isolate so that this viral load does not incubate and start transmitting shit asymptomatically.

>>12602641
>>12603158
Any concrete numbers on the increase in suicide rate?

>>12603161
PCR is the same deal as trying to test for antigen presence - it is in it's functionality no different than testing for antigen presence. Furthermore, im sure these tests have a threshold for detected genetic material in order to eliminate false positives.

>>12603167
You would also need drug overdoses and accidents, because not everything is a clear cut suicide.

>>12603111
What you said changes nothing. Sorry, but it doesn't. People who should not be dying are. Additionally, it is unlikely to be the direct result of covid, since the 25-44 age group is generally not at ris, covid is not especially deadly, and most covid deaths are elderly persons. This means we're doing something wrong. It is more clear that covid containment measures are having serious side effects on the population when taking into account things like spikes in alcohol sales, economic depression, unemployment, lack of social outlets, decreased interpersonal contact, closure of gyms, rising numbers of suicide hotline calls, and cabin fever, all things known to have negative effects on personal wellbeing. To simply dismiss these and their potential contribution to excess deaths among a btw at risk section of the population is foolish. In fact, I would go so far as to say the lack of investigation into the side effects of lockdowns measures on the population represents negligence by government and other institutions.

>>12603167
if you're asking if those numbers exist and are easy to find, yes

>>12603167
An increase in suicide rates does not justify letting thousands of more people dying with less stringent lockdown measures in any case.

>>12603162
>incredibly transmissible
>asymptomatically
That’s media fear mongering. We have this >>12598249
In older ones we talked about there being no proven transmissions without symptoms. And about R Zero meaning the transmission rate.

>>12603190
It depends on the numbers, which is why I'm asking.

>>12603172
>>12603178
Cool, can you find them for me? :)

>>12603173
Again, youre misinterpreting the data given. Percentage of excess death attributed to covid is not the percentage increase of deaths - it is the amount of deaths, out of all the extra deaths, that were caused by covid. As i explained, this number is much highest among the population bracket which suffers *least* from other causes of excess death, and that I also believe that this percentage is an *underestimate*. This number is not an indicator that the 25-44 is seeing the most increase in Covid cases, nor are they seeing the most increase in deaths in general. Your point is moot because you just dont see this.

>>12603171
>PCR is the same deal as trying to test for antigen presence - it is in it's functionality no different than testing for antigen presence. Furthermore, im sure these tests have a threshold for detected genetic material in order to eliminate false positives.
You don’t understand this stuff. Usually antigen means a chick test https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_antigen_test
Real-time-qRT-PCR is different and if you are a serious lab you don’t test for just one gene.
>have a threshold
You wish they would. The WHO in their suggested cooking protocol put it at 45. Which basically means almost finding anything everywhere.

>>12603213
>It depends on the numbers, which is why I'm asking.
what percent increase would be reasonable?

>>12603193
The media is not fearmongering. If you just open your eyes to the world youll realise were in a global pandemic. Shit kinda fucking *has* to be *pretty fucking transmissible* to do this.

>>12603220
>If you just open your eyes to the world youll realise were in a global pandemic
you're not opening your eyes onto the world, you're opening your eyes onto the media's projection of the world

>>12603215
I understand the differences in how they work, one looks for antigen, one looms for viral genetic material, but both find Covid effectively. In fact, because it is targetting genetic material it is even more precise. And it doesnt matter if it detects the bare minimum because even the bare minimum has the potential, and high likelyhood of eventual transmission.

>>12603213
Forget about it. I already have searched and read through dozens of studies showing the futility of the non pharmaceutical interventions against respiratory viruses. You need to factor in less outdoor activity with the related accidents and the reduced amount of traffic in too. That’a basically almost a study. It’snot something you will do very quickly.

>>12603231
So you wish to tell me covid is fabricated?

>>12603236
That doesn't have a strict yes or no answer

>>12603232
>In fact, because it is targetting genetic material it is even more precise
No it isn’t mRNA snippets aren’t viable virus. In fact you can argue, if there is the protein around that’s the better case for the virus being there. If you find very little it’s not even clear, if it’s really a past SARS-CoV-2 infection. But in a sense I agree PCR means more false positives.

>>12603246
Let me introduce you to in-vivo biology.
If PCR finds mRNA snippets in you, then that means youre being fucking infected by viruses which are releasing their genetic code to replicate. qPCR is even cooler, because it at the same time monitors the rate at which genetic material is produced in each cycle of PCR. Now comes the biggest part of my destruction.

The chemical half life of mRNA in vivo is literal fucking minutes. The PCR test preserves genetic material chemically from breakdown. This test is preserved so immediatelly after sampling. Thus, if you dont have virus replicating inside you, you dont find the mRNA.
Ergo - no virus.

Its not an antibody test, and its impossible to find positives from prior infections. Due to the fax mentioned above

>>12603236
My answer would be there only is one sample from Bats in Hubei that indicates there is something somewhat related to SARS-Cov-2. But that’s just 10.000 hours in mswords certainly they could have just put that into the data bank. Basically the only real prove would be the primes used for the mutagenesis assay. Nobody can know.
Unrelated, but very interesting from minute 28.00 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IdYDL_RK--w

>>12603240
Im losing hope for humanity at this point. What do you mean no straigh yes or now answer?

>>12603300
I'd argue that
>Is the Super Bowl fabricated?
also has no yes or no answer

suicide rates might not really show anything anyways
>Research on suicide during war or natural disasters points to a temporary
>decline in suicide rates during times of societal crises [2, 3].
>However, these temporary reductions tend to be compensated –
>even overcompensated – with an increase in suicide rates after the immediate crisis has passed.

https://ki.se/en/nasp/the-coronavirus-risk-for-increased-suicide-and-self-harm-in-the-society-after-the-pandemic

>>12603295
Im lost now.... what?
If you mean the only samples they have is some old rusty sample from china then youre deeply mistaken. Thousands of samples have been genetically sequenced and published from individuals all around the world, the test is incredibly accurate in any case because of some distinctive genes encoding specific proteins that are found on all SARS-CoV-2 samples.

>>12603302
I mean, the SuperBowl is a very definite and real event.

>>12603273
>releasing their genetic code to replicate
I will not get into a long winded discussion with somebody, who isn’t familiar with the technic and the matter, but a clinician may think like that, however that’s not really the truth. Finding something even, if you design the primers correctly and BLAST everything it’s not like there isn’t other stuff similar enough to not be there in very high cycles. You need to get more information about the technology. Kary Mullis the inventor made a spot on remark about it. It makes you almost believe in Buddhism because you can find anything everywhere. We don’t know most of the things out there and we don’t really understand that much. It’s what the best people understand, but others fail to grasp.

>>12603315
Is it fabricated?

>>12603312
I’m talking about the “grandfather” of SARS-CoV-2. I can’t put it in more simple words.

>>12603319
No.

>>12603321
Frankenstein theory, if that’s more familiar?

>>12603345
The super bowl is absolutely a fabricated event

>>12603312
I still don’t completely understand, but I’m talking about the origin of the virus and if I’m correct you misunderstood it as a denial of the quasispecies theory?

>>12603273
>The chemical half life of mRNA in vivo is literal fucking minutes. The PCR test preserves genetic material chemically from breakdown
Isn’t true too, but I don’t have time for this today. In the SARS-CoV-2 general I probably will put some material about a significant variation in the half life of mRNA, if I can find the time.

>>12603316
Youre calling PCR tests a big blind shotgun basically, which is omega bullshit. These tests *specifically target* the exact RNA sequences found in all SARS-CoV-2 samples - they are pretty unique and distinctive, and the primers are designed to pick exactly them. It is highly unlikely to achieve transcription errors that massive to mistaken some random genetic material (like, where even from) for SARS-CoV-2 genetic material, because other shit will have massive differences. Of course if you completely incorrectly design the test itll pick up the wrong thing. Also PCR doesnt just perpetually multiply the genetic material forever, it amplyfies it, meaning it stops at some poin. The rate of amplification of the genetic material, which is measured by qPCR, and the total amount afterwards depends entirely on the amount of source viral genetic material present. The thresholds are thus designed ti prevent false positives by disregarding statistically negligible results.

>>12603370
>Also PCR doesnt just perpetually multiply the genetic material forever, it amplyfies it, meaning it stops at some poin
What's the difference between multiplying and amplifying?

>>12603367
>>12603370
What do you mean isnt true? mRNA inside cells and in blood is very volatile and decomposes in a matter of minutes to a couple of hours depending, actually google m8. And because if this you will need to have a relatively large amount of viral mRNA present to trigger a positive test on the PCR.

>>12603377
It amplifies the sample by making more copies of it, but to a finite point

>>12603355
Wha.. what? How?

>>12603390
so the sample is multiplied, it's just multiplied by a finite amount and not by infinity

>>12603361
Wha? What the fuck is the quasispecies theory? Why were you even on about the origin of the virus all of a sudden? Help

>>12603392
It's literally a giant media event that thousands of conspirators organize and present

>>12603370
>PCR tests a big blind shotgun basically
I don’t think you get my point at all.
>are pretty unique and distinctive,
Sure thing. Impressive waiting for you to load up all the stuff out there to BLAST, because you already seem to have them all.
>where even from
I’m not the one of us two claiming to have samples of everything out there.
> Of course if you completely incorrectly design the test itll pick up the wrong thing
That happens like with the WHO protocol for SARS-CoV-2. No test design is perfect like you imply and most are pretty mediocre and rather bad like in the former mentioned case.
>it’s only viral material
Except it isn’t.
>The thresholds are thus designed ti prevent false positives by disregarding statistically negligible results.
Many are running SARS-CoV-2 test at 45 cycles. And the WHO suggests it.

>>12603393
Yes. Essentially. Because this chain reaction of multiplication is controlled.

>>12602908
i'm sorry, you're completely incorrect if you don't have the attention span for a youtube video citations are in the description.

>>12603416
I’ve talked to Swedes on /pol/. You and that guy are lying.

>>12603398
>I dont think you get my point at all.
Your point is that these tests are inaccurate. I disagree.
>Except it isn't
Well wdym except there isnt give some idk, explanation?
And whats wrong with 45 cycles? Is that too high?
>no test design is perfect
Well ofc no test design is perfect but the ones we have are pretty darn good and have been proven to have a high clinical standard.

>>12603390
He is talking about, if something isn’t there it won’t show up or at least not similar to a certain extent it won’t show up. But no shit Sherlock. The thing is there are many factors that can’t be controlled and some that can like like the primer dimers in the WHO suggested protocol, if you have something like that, a probe with nothing can show up as a probe with something.

>>12603428
The pcr machines are fake, the lab people are lying, and the docs are lying on top of it all. Trust no one but yourself. They’re all working in their interest. They want us to all be covid so they vax us and sterilize and kill us for money

>>12602927
I think anyone who claims lock downs are totally benign is lying through their teeth, but I also think people who claim SARS-CoV-2 is totally harmless, and all deaths are a result of the lock downs is bat shit crazy. Many countries had lock downs, many countries avoided excess deaths entirely. If lock downs are actually resulting in many deaths in the USA, then there's something functionally wrong with our society that lock downs are only revealing.

>>12603431
What the fuck? Primer dimers are literal by products, they dont affect anything at all you fucming moron.

>>12603438
Based opinion

>>12603438
>>12603447
Samefag centrist brainlet

>>12603423
well my wife's boyfriend is Swedish and he said they actually shot you in the streets if you left your home.

Anyway idiotic anecdotal evidence aside, the video provides, government orders, interviews from the public health officials in charge, flight and travel data, extensive surveys, etc. "he's lying because some guy on /pol/ said so" isn't going to cut it.

>>12603431
>>12603444
You cant fucking mistake small ass primer dimers for a positive Covid test

>>12603428
>Your point is that these tests are inaccurate
PCR test are fine, if you use them correctly. You need to be aware of potentials and limits. If you push a swab into everybody and search for Zaire-Ebola by PCR testing and we just go by result, we would shut down the world tomorrow, because of a huge Zaire-Ebola pandemic.
>are 45 cycles too high
45 in searching for infections is clown territory.
>high clinical standard
Well...

>>12603450
I trust /pol/ over some atheist popsci fag
/soi/ is filled with clamped midwits

>>12603473
Dude who the fuck are you
You’re really saying PCR doesn’t have high sensitivity and specificity in a myriad of infectious diseases?
You legit have no idea what you’re talking about lmao
Fucking retards own this board now

>>12603482
You didn't even know that 45 cycles is way too high

>>12603482
Nice adhom. I’m actually one of the people who developed PCR in the early stages. I know more about PCR than anyone on this board.

>>12603484
I’m not that anon retard. Fucking hell
Retarded and a newfag?

>>12603451
Some labs run low for material and test on one gene only. Because everybody buys the nonsense of people without symptoms spreading. They probably just think better be safe than sorry and send everybody into quarantine. Trust me there is nothing that doesn’t happen.

>>12603492
I was that anon

>>12603486
Lmao you guys are pathetic idiots. Keep propounding your shitty theories which aren’t based in reality at all. Stupider than lab monkeys

>>12603495
I broke the dam...wait...

>>12603493
But asymptomatic spreading is literally a thing what.

>>12603509
There are experts saying it is and there are experts saying it isn't

>>12603495
God theres so many anons

>>12603477
>/pol/fag denying objective reality because it hurts their feelings
Nothing new under the sun, just so long as you don't expect anyone to take you seriously.

>>12603511
And theres much more experts saying that there is than there isnt.

>>12603509
The Munich case study was wrong. It’s still not retracted. She took medication against, what she thought to be a very bad jet lag. But they didn’t talk to her and only a journalist contacted her.
The other studies I know say not statistically different from zero.

>>12603522
Not really

>>12603509
How clamped are you? How can you spread something if you don’t have the disease?
I don’t care what your studies say when they’re all funded by Jewish and Chinese aborters

>>12603473
>>12603486
Yo thats cool! (I hope these are the same anon here)

>clown territory
Is that way too high? What would be better? Also like, just how much would the genetic material be amplified this way?
>we would be having an ebola epidemic
But how? Is pcr that inaccurate in its transcription or the primers finding the right genetic material?

>>12603517
>>12603522
Guys, why are you wasting your time on these retards? You could be studying, learning, hell fucking some bitch right now. These guys don’t live in reality. Nothing they say is real or worth hearing. They’re like the crazy fags that stand on apple crates in the middle of a town and talk shit about how everyone is conspiring against them.

>>12603542
Not the same.

>>12603542
You aren’t ready for the real knowledge that PCR is all made up. When I worked on it we fudged all the data. If I reveal these truths then society will collapse.

>>12603539
HIV can be asymptomatic for several fucking years, and yet its still transmissible, and you wouldnt be suffering from AIDS just yet.
The same fucking principle dude - theres enough virus to start spreading through aerosols, but not enough to cause visible symptoms, same as how some people have it really mild and really severe. Except the mechanism HIV uses to stay asymptomatic for so long is different to corona, HIV is smarter, it has more IQ than you.

>>12603556
HIV is fake like covid. GRIDS is the real name.

>>12603550
Fuck.

>>12603549
Too scared to learn the truth? Typical clamped and vaccinated soiboy

>>12603542
>>12603550
samefag

Can you people stop spreading the Truth.
We need to kill/sterilise as much retards as possible, this is good for the future of Humanity.

>>12603549
>>12603550
samefag

>>12603549
In my
>>12603473
opinion you should stop the real-time-qRT-PCR testing of healthy people completely. And I think it won’t even be of much value in sick people, but if somebody is down with full blown pneumonia you can even use the low quality WHO protocol and maybe do 20-25 cycles. Maybe do it on BAL, if you believe in the spooky stuff.

>>12603573
>>12603580
I lost all fucking track why are there so many anons.

ANONS BEGONE
PERISH

>>12603573
>>12603580
different fags

>>12603549
Fuck you

>>12603576
The people who reject using vaccines are usually low IQ whites and blacks.

>>12603602
Please get vaccinated as quickly as possible.
Do your part, protect yourself and your family.
Together, we can beat this plague.

>>12603584
Well I messed up it was for >>12603542
>>12603554
We will go there? But why not, I mean let’s do this.

>>12603556
>he thinks AIDS is asymptomatic

>>12603613
The terminology is faffy - HIV is the virus, it causes AIDS, but AIDS doesnt kill, opportunistic infections do. But during HIVs incubation period there is no symptoms. AIDS cant be asymptomatic.

>>12603622
So HIV causes symptoms. That’s called AIDS
Covid shills are so dumb
Bet you think it isn’t the flu too

>>12603607
https://europepmc.org/article/med/33196555
AIDS Niggers hate vaccines
Pool is closed because of the pandemic nigger

>>12603626
Some say poppers also do it.

>>12603634
Yeah that makes sense. The drugs and the gay sex are causing their problems not this hiv. It’s never been proven anyway.

>>12603626
HIV is the virus, AIDS develops, technically, as a symptom of *infection of HIV*, but during a large portion of *infection with HIV*, its (the infection) is asymptomatic, but transmissible.

>>12603554
Can you deliver?

>>12603641
So you lied? Typical

>>12603647
When I die I’ll release all the raw data. Right now they’d ruin my life.

>>12603648
My deepest apologies anon. I have failed you.

>>12603662
Proof you can never trust scientists. /pol is always right

>>12603654
I mean there are so many, who probably want to do this stuff, how deep does the fake in your opinion run? Would you like to elaborate on in silico methods.

>>12603626
>So HIV causes symptoms.
Not sure what point you're making. Yes, HIV can cause symptoms, which is usually when it's progressed to AIDS. It can be transmissible prior to the development of symptoms, and that's often how it's spread, when the person isn't even aware they're infected. That's the point the other anon was making.

https://medlineplus.gov/ency/article/000682.htm#
>Asymptomatic HIV infection is the second stage of HIV/AIDS. During this stage, there are no symptoms of HIV infection. This stage is also called chronic HIV infection or clinical latency.
>During this stage, the virus keeps multiplying in the body and the immune system slowly weakens, but the person has no symptoms. How long this stage lasts depends on how quickly the HIV virus copies itself, and how the person's genes affect the way the body handles the virus.
>Untreated, some people can go 10 years or longer without symptoms. Others may have symptoms and worsening immune function within a few years after the original infection.

>>12603669
All lies just like covid

>>12603669
Thank you fellow anon

>>12603669
>>12603694
Samefag

>>12603700
No u

>>12603449
>>12603573
>>12603580
>>12603700
Samefag

>>12603449
>>12603550
>>12603573
>>12603580
>>12603590
>>12603700
>>12603739
samefag

I just fucking realised i spent more than 5 straight fucking hours on this thread. Thats it. Fuck this im going to sleep.

>>12603752
How'd you know!?

>>12603763
I've been down that road myself. Good night anon.

>>12603764
Samefag

>>12603654
Make sure it’s safe and we will find it than.

>>12603766
Good night you too anon. :peeposlep:

>>12603752
nah

>>12603820
lol

>>12601374
again and again it's been shown that they are adding any 'naturla causes' deaths to th covid total, even the CDC said the real number of covid as the only death was about 6% of the current total.

>>12602490
If you will be tied to your bed forever, your chances to trip and fall will become zero. Therefore tying you to your bed forever is good.

>>12603556
In the first world HIV is spread mainly by men who have sex with men. HIV rates in other population subgroups are minuscule. So it's very fun to see lockdown propagandist who is also all for gay rights.

>>12604371
>HIV is spread mainly by men who have sex with men
On purpose so that they can punish the rest of the society by forcing it to fund their expensive anti-hiv drugs

>>12601511

Sweden didn’t lock down at all. Nobody even wears masks there.

>>12601676

Sweden’s population has increased from 9.3 million to 10.3 million over the last 10 years while the rest of Europe’s population is at best stagnating?

Wow, that octoroon Frederick Reinfeldt let in more Muslims than I realized.

>>12605809
again completely incorrect Sweden locked down harder than the US as a whole. Repeating the same line i've debunked over and over again won't make it true.

>>12606284
All the studies conclude something different. And the results always show the non pharmaceutical interventions don’t work. There are already multiple studies posted in this thread. But you probably don’t really care about science and just continue to believe what you want to believe.

>>12606325
we already addressed this, your 'studies' are complete nonsense. And completely contradict the body of evidence.

>>12606284
No, it didn't.

>>12606350
>all the evidence presented is nonsense
>here is my claim without any evidence provided
Sure thing. You don’t care about the data and try to spread fear and false informations. Thanks for clearing that up.

>>12606399
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.22.20160341v3
>This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

>https://secure.jbs.elsevierhealth.com/action/consumeSsoCookie?redirectUri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Faction%2FconsumeSharedSessionAction%3FJSESSIONID%3DaaajbFpeKG5bn4b6kZBCx%26MAID%3DCplkNENDwn%252BTFpyc12qLBg%253D%253D%26SERVER%3DWZ6myaEXBLF%252B9vQ18y9JMw%253D%253D%26ORIGIN%3D801102648%26RD%3DRD&code=null&acw=Secure;SameSite=None&utt=
link doesn't work
https://advance.sagepub.com/articles/preprint/Comment_on_Dehning_et_al_Science_15_May_2020_eabb9789_Inferring_change_points_in_the_spread_of_COVID-19_reveals_the_effectiveness_of_interventions_/12362645
>This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.02090.pdf
>e-prints posted on arXiv are not peer-reviewed by arXiv; they should not be relied upon without context to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information without consulting multiple experts in the field.

https://www.datascienceassn.org/sites/default/files/Illusory%20Effects%20of%20Non-pharmaceutical%20Interventions%20on%20COVID19%20in%20Europe.pdf
>Preprints are early versions of research articles that have not been peer reviewed. They should not be regarded as conclusive and should not be reported in news media as established information.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20088260v2
>This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

>>12606631
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext
Does this one work?

>>12606631
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1
>This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.26.20202267v1
>This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
https://www.nicholaslewis.org/did-lockdowns-really-save-3-million-covid-19-deaths-as-flaxman-et-al-claim/
>Nicholas Lewis, an independent Climate Science Researcher, based in the UK.
kek
>https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588
an ok model taken hugely out of context.
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-reanalysis-of-model-used-for-imperial-report-9-and-impact-of-school-closures/
>This provides further independent confirmation that Imperial’s modelling in March was robust, reproducible and sound in its conclusions. We welcome this independent analysis of Report 9 as we continue to advance our understanding of the early epidemic.”
>It needs to be stressed that all the simulations assume that interventions are only in place for 3 months (18th April – 18th July) and then completely relaxed. This gives rise to a strange set of scenarios where a second wave is allowed to progress in an uncontrolled manner.
>The authors bring out a key point that was not widely appreciated in March — the Imperial College modellers and SAGE reports explicitly warned that the lockdown would only slow the epidemic so as to prevent ICU capacity from being overwhelmed as they predicted, and that on-off lockdowns would have to continue for up to 2 years to ensure this. Unless a vaccine became available, the only deaths that would be prevented by lockdowns would be the extra deaths resulting from the predicted overload of the health service.

>>12606284

What? Sweden locked down much less than the US did.

You seem like you just want to sort death rates by how much a country locked down. Since Sweden has lower death rates than the US, you have to assume it had a harsher lockdown.

>>12606631
>>12606693
All science is false anyway due to the replication crisis
Journalists and politicians are also always lying.

The best solution is always to not do anything and ignore anyone who claims otherwise because they're always a liar with agenda.

UK locked down pretty hard, and it now has the worst covid death rate in the whole world.

>>12606631
>This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice
It’s a pre-print and? It’s high quality studies so it’s safe to say you will have them in a decent journal soon.
Also scroll up again there are non pre-prints.
Of course reviewing needs some time and isn’t done within 2 days.

>>12606704
See >>12606701
It proves me right, again. No one ever learns.

>>12606693
>science direct
It’s an opinion piece.

>>12606689
This has everything and this too
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/eci.13484

>>12606689
Yeah but i'm not sure why you shared it
>There were a series of predictors with significant associations with the outcome variables that require careful interpretation. An increased scale of national testing was not associated with the number of critical cases, or deaths per million. The government policy of full lockdowns (vs. partial or curfews only) was strongly associated with recovery rates (RR=2.47; 95%CI: 1.08–5.64). Similarly, the number of days to any border closure was associated with the number of cases per million (RR=1.04; 95%CI: 1.01–1.08). This suggests that full lockdowns and early border closures may lessen the peak of transmission, and thus prevent health system overcapacity, which would facilitate increased recovery rates.

>here are important limitations with our data, including the fact that at or prior to May 1, 2020, many countries included in our dataset were not yet in the “plateau” or downslope phase of their individual epidemiologic curves, with border restrictions having been introduced only very recently. In the context of COVID-19, it is thought that public health interventions typically require from 2 to 3 weeks to affect outcomes, hence the impact of widespread border restrictions may not have yet been detected in our dataset
In the case of full lockdowns, such a government policy may only be effective in those countries where it can be easily implemented and enforced. For example, the United States has had challenges enforcing lockdowns, with citizens in several states publicly protesting public health measures to limit viral transmission, and encouraging open revolt

>restrictions imposed by the pandemic (eg, stay-at-home orders) could claim lives indirectly through delayed care for acute emergencies, exacerbations of chronic diseases, and psychological distress (eg, drug overdoses
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768086

>>12606699
again, false >>12601511
sources are in the description, feel free to respond to those.

>[the] President...has flatly denied the seriousness of the pandemic, refusing to impose a lockdown, close schools, or cancel mass events…Yet the country’s death rate is among the lowest in Europe-just over 700 in a population of 9.5 million
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3543
>The national criteria most associated with death rate are life expectancy and its slowdown, public health context (metabolic and non-communicable diseases (NCD) burden vs. infectious diseases prevalence), economy (growth national product, financial support), and environment (temperature, ultra-violet index). Stringency of the measures settled to fight pandemia, including lockdown, did not appear to be linked with death rate
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.604339/full

>>12601759
Don't forget all the Chinese fentanyl in the smack for the last several years.

>>12606735
They'll update it with mass riots and public executions before this year is over as potential secondary causes of deaths.

>>12606735
>These estimates suggest that the number of COVID-19 deaths reported in the first weeks of the pandemic captured only two-thirds of excess deaths in the US. Potential explanations include delayed reporting of COVID-19 deaths and misattribution of COVID-19 deaths to other respiratory illnesses (eg, pneumonia) or to nonrespiratory causes reflecting complications of COVID-19 (eg, coagulopathy, myocarditis). Few excess deaths involved pneumonia or influenza as underlying causes.
It basically says the pandemic's is worse than reported, it's definitely not advocating we do nothing about it. Not sure why you posted this.

>>12601558
Based

>>12606733
I shared is because their conclusion says
>such as obesity, advanced age and higher per capita GDP are associated with increased national case load and mortality
The other stuff is just a maybe. Recovery rate is probably pseudo correlation
>An increased scale of national testing was not associated with the number of critical cases, or deaths per million
That implies it doesn’t work otherwise they would have shown it. They just speculate it could help, but couldn’t show it.

>>12603752
samefag

>>12606749
Please for the love of god actually read the Belarus article.
>The relatively low death rate is thought to be thanks to Belarus’s large hospital capacity which allowed the country to isolate people early on, says Andrei Vitushka, a healthcare policy expert at the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies in Vilnius, Lithuania.

>“Belarus, like most of the post-Soviet states, has a focus on “sanitary epidemiological problems” meaning large scale health scares like a pandemic,” says Rasmus Nilsson, a teaching fellow at University College London’s school of Slavonic and east European studies.

This may be one reason Belarus also outperformed most of Europe in terms of mass testing during the first four months of the pandemic. While many countries were reluctant to carry out extensive testing, according to the state owned news agency BelTA, testing in Belarus started as early as 23 January. Most kits were donated or purchased from China and Russia2 using government funds and donations from companies3 and ordinary citizens.4 The country stepped up testing in early April,5 developing its own rapid testing kits6 and switching to the use of domestically produced reagents for polymerase chain reaction testing in May.7 According to government information, there are now 32 laboratories processing samples across the country and testing is widespread in hospitals as well as from GPs.

>Citizens began practising self-isolation early on. On 26 March a crowdfunding campaign “ByCovid19” was launched in order to buy safety equipment for hospitals across the country. The movement collected around $360000 (£277000; €304000) in three months and, with the help of nearly 1500 volunteers, they purchased and distributed around 450 000 pieces of personal protective equipment, oxygen tanks, and other medical equipment.

>>12606775
testing doesn't do anything on it's own, you have to actually do something with that information. Big surprise.

>>12606764
>This study has limitations, including the reliance on provisional data, potentially inaccurate death certificates,
They even say the deaths due to COVID are questionable and
>secondary pandemic mortality caused by disruptions in society that diminished or delayed access to health care and the social determinants of health (eg, jobs, income, food security)
They say it’s probably the measures.

>>12602960
It's not clear that lockdowns are saving more people than they're killing. Ruining the economy has knock-on effects that are more subtle but possibly just as deadly. Reduced income means worse nutrition, which means worse health. Reduced income also means reduced tax income, meaning reduced government programs. These two compound too, worse health means more people will need those now-reduced government programs. So you'll have more people competing for less help. It's not as flashy as someone choking on a ventilator, but someone dying of poverty is just as dead.

>>12606778
That‘s all the speculations. The important part is the death rate. The Belarusian clinics certainly aren’t top notch. And the other article found out testing doesn’t matter.
And there is no evidence for large scale self organized civilian response.
The fact of the matter is the low death rate compared to nations with lookdowns.

>>12606784
Stop being dishonest they all used it for contact tracing and quarantining.

>>12606803
>Reduced income also means reduced tax income, meaning reduced government programs.

Hopefully they start collapsing soon due to funding shortfall.

>https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30201-7/fulltext
>It appears that the less rigid lockdown led to an insufficient decrease in mobility to reverse an outbreak such as COVID-19. With a tighter lockdown, mobility decreased enough to bring down transmission promptly below the level needed to sustain the epidemic.
lockdowns work when you actually take them seriously

>https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/27/3/taaa037/5808003?login=true
>A significantly decreased growth rate and increased doubling time of cases was observed, which is most likely due to Chinese lockdown measures. A more stringent confinement of people in high risk areas seems to have a potential to slow down the spread of COVID-19.

>https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0236779
>The results of the COVID-19 data analysis in Spain demonstrate the positive impact of the lockdown in containing the disease. It was possible to identify a similar pattern in the majority of autonomous communities in Spain, characterized by a pronounced decline in incidence, hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and mortality rates. The best indicator for the evaluation of the consequences of the pandemic was the mortality rate, which presented the highest uniformity across registries, besides representing the worst outcome of the disease. The assessment of these trends is a vital instrument to substantiate decision-making

>https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2743
>Conclusions Physical distancing interventions were associated with reductions in the incidence of covid-19 globally. No evidence was found of an additional effect of public transport closure when the other four physical distancing measures were in place. Earlier implementation of lockdown was associated with a larger reduction in the incidence of covid-19. These findings might support policy decisions as countries prepare to impose or lift physical distancing measures in current or future epidemic waves.

>>12606860
>lockdowns work when you actually take them seriously
That means that if you know that you can't enforce lockdowns strict enough (or fail to do so), yet do lockdowns anyway, your decision is doubly criminal.

>>12606860
>
>https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.2105/AJPH.2020.305903?casa_token=819K72NbbjMAAAAA%3AcTpMfKgDm5k9ze3renytNSgewW3rQ4EtGImE55Wu-XKx_4biQ7mrkkAhAx-oRazg--L8iQuoqWQCtQ8
>In sum, penalties against social distancing violations have a meaningful effect on slowing down the spread of COVID-19. Exploiting the policy difference among the 38 Landkreise alongside the Bavarian border, we found that, when lockdowns were strictly enforced with heavy fines, both the time-dependent reproduction number and the growth rate of confirmed cases fell significantly.

>https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3649953
>The rapid spread of COVID-19 forced policy-makers to swiftly find solutions to reduce infection rates and keep mortality as low as possible. Empirical analyses on the effectiveness of control measures are hereby of primary importance. School closures were among the earliest measures enacted by the governments of most countries. However, while schools are now reopening in many countries, the impact of school closures on the course of the epidemic is still an open question. Adopting parametric and non-parametric synthetic control methods we estimate the effectiveness of pro-active school closures, and other early social distancing interventions, in three countries that reacted relatively early during the course of the pandemic. Our findings suggest that these interventions were effective at reducing the mortality rate of COVID-19, especially when enacted early.

I can keep going all day if you want me to.

>>12606865
I actually agree a lockdown without enforcement is pointless. Fines seem to work well. >>12606866

>>12606819
some places did, other places (like the US) kind of just threw a test at random people, got the results back too late to do anything, and then cried about how we only have lots of cases because of all that useless testing we did.

>>12606860
>lockdowns work when you actually take them seriously
The people doing it were amateurs. Influenza like infections always decline in March. It just looks at phone data, but when the tighter rules were put in place it already was in decline like all the years before.
>However, cases without travel history to China do not follow this path
This reads the Chinese data is probably made up.
>which can be possibly attributed to rigorous Chinese lockdown measurements.
Or maybe isn’t and it’s the garbage PCR testing.

>>12606866
Germany currently has up to thousand deaths per day (not UK level yet) and quintupled death numbers during the second wave. Fines stopped to work?

>>12606796
you're completely misrepresenting the paper, please for the love of god actually read it.
It's saying that the number of covid deaths is underestimated (not overestimated) >>12606764
and in addition to that there are the factors you mentioned. (which no one denies) It's absolutely not advocating for no lockdown.

>>12606860
>lockdowns work when you actually take them seriously
No they don't. Until people can eat electricity out of the wall socket you'll have grocery stores acting as vectors. The location of infection changes from a restaurant or a bar to the grocery store or essential workplace or school.

You don't need a study to figure this out you first rate dimwit.

Winter lockdowns in Europe is significantly more strict than the early summer lockdowns(that just werked according to idiot you). Yet there's no steep decline like there was in april/may.

Use your fucking brain instead of letting some retarded with agenda and a manually adjusted computer model think for you.

>>12606860
>https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0236779
>https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2743
No adjustment for respiratory disease seasonality, makes it worthless.

Almost all "working lockdowns" are just seasonal change.

>>12606890
Germany relaxed restrictions and is having a huge holiday spike, If you actually read the paper you would know that fines and enforcement isn't the same across all of germany.

>>12606915
This.

We'll also cure covid with the vaccines around May this year. Then blame antivaxxers in October for the resurgence.

>>12606899
I didn’t say the paper agrees with me. I said it concluded you can’t calculate it, based on objective criteria and than proposed non evidence based measures and speculated. I never said I agree with everything in there.

>>12606915
citation needed
;)

>>12606917
>huge holiday spike
Where?

>>12606866
>https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.2105/AJPH.2020.305903?casa_token=819K72NbbjMAAAAA%3AcTpMfKgDm5k9ze3renytNSgewW3rQ4EtGImE55Wu-XKx_4biQ7mrkkAhAx-oRazg--L8iQuoqWQCtQ8
>may slow down
Even he knows it’s rather inconclusive
>Landkreises are similar enough demographically
I can already tell you that’s not the case even without buying his article

>>12606866
>https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3649953
Fantasy model land and no data about existing cross immunity in the countries, no adjustments for air quality and overall health and not even looking at seasonality patterns.

>>12606911
>you'll have grocery stores acting as vectors
It's interesting how there's virtually no data about grocery store spread.
Some studies showed that workers in grocery stores had much higher covid rates, then everyone fell silent about it.

But with current lockdowns tightening and thought control being high on the agenda everyone knows they'll be burned at the stake if they say what's obvious.

>>12606866
>I can keep going all day if you want me to.
If you can find one that really shows it that would be enough, but it seems to be hard.

>>12606917
As somebody from Germany I can tell you thinks are only escalating since early November. There is no real relaxation.

>>12606973
>thinks
things

>>12606913
>No adjustment for respiratory disease seasonality, makes it worthless.
sorry I can't take your word for it, please provide me with an actual analysis of how the seasonality effects each individual country examined in both studies, and that this effect is enough to actually significantly change the results. Thanks.

>>12606946
>>12606946
Same as above, I'll await your detailed response.

>>12606960
I've shown extensive evidence, There's been extensive coping in the thread but no actual substantial complaints. Please do better.

>>12606934
Irrelevant nitpicky complaints, do better.

>>12606995
>sorry I can't take your word for it, please provide me with an actual analysis of how the seasonality effects each individual country examined in both studies, and that this effect is enough to actually significantly change the results. Thanks.
I don’t have to show it for each country. I just have to show seasonality being the mayor driver in respiratory infections.

>>12607009
>study is shady from outside
>go behind the paywall to proof it’s what’s looks like from the outside
If there is an accessible study I will do it, but no I‘m not going to waste money.

>>12607034
If you don't know how to access journals you don't belong on /sci/

>>12606999
>https://scholar.google.de/scholar?hl=de&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Health+as+outcome+prediction+infection&btnG=#d=gs_qabs&u=%23p%3DbA7Ku5DdPOMJ
How to model.
>https://www.ottawapublichealth.ca/en/reports-research-and-statistics/resources/Images/PastSeasonFlu.png
Respiratory viruses are seasonal
>https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935111001666?casa_token=Kxv_e7ifj8YAAAAA:CwK47gh5X4Uz9WblI3eJkq4QkdFe9UVSKh1DNL4mEmIeYl6AS2KiCdC2eIhBOurB7efuNZZGFaI
Air quality

>>12607027
No you have to show how that fact corresponds to each individual country as seasonality is hugely dependent on geography and local climate.

>>12607073
I don’t usually open them online, but because of lockdown fanatics I can go to the library.

>>12607085
again please actually demonstrate how this effects the results of the studies, be specific.

>>12607088
I don’t have to show it. I have to show it’s a relevant factor in general.

>>12607093
If respiratory infections are seasonal and they don’t factor it in they might just don’t study it. I don’t have to show it for x country. It‘s clear that these countries don’t have the same climatic conditions.

>>12607097
>>12607106
again you have to actually demonstrate how seasonality effects the results of the study, 'Just trust me bro' isn't an argument. Stop being lazy.

>>12607106
>>12606946
>>12606915
>>12606913
>>12606884

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7700765/
>Several studies to date have attempted to identify and quantify climatic dependencies in Covid-19 infection rates, using data on reported cases [[14], [15], [16], [17]], but have failed to conclusively prove or disprove the existence of such a link. These studies have been compromised by the fact that no single location on Earth has yet moved through a full annual cycle in the presence of Covid-19; thus the studies depend on ‘space-for-time’ substitution (in other words, using the difference in climate between different locations as a proxy for its evolution over time in one location) – but the assumptions necessary for this approach to work are confounded by the spatial dynamic of the disease spread. Moreover, various degrees of non-pharmaceutical control measures have been applied across different countries, and their intensity changed over time at a given location. This, in combination with differential socio-economic conditions and related differential abilities of individuals to apply social distancing, makes it hard to identify a relatively weak climatic signal in observed case data. Further noise is added by the heterogeneity in how the case data and mortality data are reported. As a consequence of all these complicating factors, by September 2020, no consensus has been reached on whether Covid-19 has a climatic dependence; and if so, which environmental factors are involved, and what their relative strengths are [13,18].

>>12607114
I explained it. If you don’t factor in natural decline of infections you can’t just look at social contacts and movement of people, because you will always see decline of cases and increase of cases at roughly the same periods. If you don’t model this in somehow it’s clearly a useless model.

>>12607166
>If you don’t factor in natural decline of infections
so at least quantify, said natural decline in infections, again 'dude trust me isn't an argument'

>>12607149
Interesting thanks
>Until the importance of seasonality in Covid-19 infection rates has been established, it remains prudent to design control measures as if high temperature and humidity will not significantly dampen the infection rate
They are basically making my argument you can’t tell one from the other.
However the issue is it’s all PCR testing and that is notoriously unreliable. So we would have to get data on COVID-19 deaths that are plaque assay confirmed and looked at by a pathologist to make sure the pathology matches. And somehow that has to happen randomized in different countries.

>>12607174
So you want data on the seasonality of respiratory infections?

>>12607174
https://jcm.asm.org/content/48/8/2940.short

>>12607223
covid specifically, then compare how the signal from seasonality compares to the signal from lockdowns in each county (you can't generalize because it varies so strongly based on geography etc) , if it's strong enough we can potentially conclude the study is invalid.

>>12607235
You can clearly see hCoVs peak shortly and very rapidly in February short after the Influenza peak and decline during March/April.

>>12607247
No. You are immunizing the lockdowns from any critic, how can we show it wasn’t the lockdowns in that three specific countries, if they had the lockdowns? We show it for hCoVs.

>>12607235
>>12607248
You can't just compare different viral strains and just assume Covid will behave the same way.
>https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343910087_Misconceptions_about_weather_and_seasonality_must_not_misguide_COVID-19_response
>Influenza, the common cold, and other respiratory infections show seasonal transmission that coincides with changes in temperature, humidity, and solar radiation. But seasonal epidemics are also a product of the transmissibility of a virus, the initial susceptibility of a population, and the degree and nature of immunity conferred by infections. In basic epidemiological models, stable “oscillations” like seasonal epidemic waves usually require some degree of immunity5,6; at the start of a pandemic, when transmissibility is high and immunity is low, even strong environmental drivers are unlikely to curb transmission.


>Generally, coronaviruses displayed marked winter seasonality between the months of December and April and were not detected in summer months
This illustrates this perfectly. Covid-19 sure as hell wasn't "not detected in summer months"

>>12607444
>different viral strains
>COVID-19
you need to get with the program the virus called SARS-CoV-2 and the other name is the illness caused by it.
>initial susceptible individuals
I already mentioned that. They also didn’t model it in. You are making the case against your source stronger.
I never claimed respiratory infections are only weather driven, but it’s a very major factor, which you can’t ignore.

>>12607444
>This illustrates this perfectly. Covid-19 sure as hell wasn't "not detected in summer months"
It was rarely found by PCR testing, if compared to February and early March. However there is a massive bias, because the other hCoVs are rarely ever tested for on a grand scale. Add the false positive rate and we can say it’s not completely conclusive, but all the evidence points in the direction.

>>12607497
> but all the evidence points in the direction.
source?
;)

>>12607477
you've contributed nothing with this post so I'll direct you here again >>12607247

>>12607516
Your claim was there were many SARS-CoV-2 infections in the summer so you are going to show it by a randomized study with plaque assays. I called you out on your claim and now it’s on me to prove it?
>>12607519
You are shifting the goal post so fast it’s astounding. So we travel back in time and not lockdown the countries? The argument you can’t compare SARS-CoV-2 to other hCoVs makes it impossible for there to be any valid study that also affects your study. So again you are disproving your own source.

>>12607544
I haven't changed the goalposts in the least.
>>12606995
>The argument you can’t compare SARS-CoV-2 to other hCoVs makes it impossible for there to be any valid study that also affects your study.
If you don't have any relevant data, don't make baseless claims, it's not hard.

>>12607570
I showed seasonality of the other hCoVs. That implies it’s relevant for SARS-CoV-2.
You are just making stuff up, it’s the major factor and they missed it. That makes the study invalid.

>>12607580
And I showed why it's a useless comparison.>>12607444
> it’s the major factor and they missed it.
source?
;)

>>12607597
>source
https://jcm.asm.org/content/48/8/2940.short
>you can’t compare it
If you claim that implies there is no way to figure it out. So the study is certainly invalid, if we can’t find out, how much the weather contributed.

>>12607611
>you can’t compare it
you absolutely can't for the reasons I've repeated.
You made the claim that seasonality is the primary factor, I assumed you would have evidence for this, you don't. So you're just making shit up. So please fuck off.

>>12607597
You also don’t get your own source they say depending on prior existing immunity and your first study also didn’t measure it and hence didn’t plug it in the model.
So, if you trust them you first study is also wrong, it’s invalid either way.

>>12607621
I showed it to you and you claim by magic it is not even slightly happening in this case. You don’t get your own source.

>>12607623
>You also don’t get your own source they say depending on prior existing immunity
It's a reason why your comparison doesn't work. There's no prior immunity to a novel virus.

>>12607621
If you claim it is special you will prove it with data.

>>12607628
>it is not even slightly happening in this case.
I never said this, I just want evidence that it's enough of a factor to make the conclusions of the study we're discussing invalid. You have yet to provide this, and are therefore just talking out of your ass.

>>12607630
You are utterly uniformed. There is always some level of cross immunity for viruses of one family. They do have almost identical hull and other structural proteins and hence can be targeted by existing IgG and T-cells. Now you are ridiculous.

>>12607635
If you think there is better data, we will look at yours. Otherwise we use the most reasonable data and I have provided it.

>>12607644
>hull
I meant envelope

>>12607633
sure
>https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_totalandratecases
millions of confirmed cases and growing throughout summer, compared to viruses which couldn't even be detected during summer months. Pretty obvious there's absolutely no comparison to be made here.

>>12607644
source?
;)

>>12607654
Just raw PCR and not adjusted for operational false positive rate and overall tests taken.
That‘s useless data we go with the hCoVs.

>>12607666
>Just raw PCR and not adjusted for operational false positive rate and overall tests taken.
ok that's fair, so provide the false positive rate, and or a more accurate count of total cases. Just saying it's useless without a source is once again just you talking out of your ass.
>That‘s useless data we go with the hCoVs.
now that's ACTUAL useless data, if we could just go off of hCoVs there would be no pandemic and we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

>>12607657
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2020.586984/full

>>12607679
My data is better. It is all well adjusted. Clean sentinel probes.
Yours is garbage. I‘m not going to fix it and the operational false positive rate is unknown to my knowledge.
>can’t use the other data
Well the model put in no climate effect and that is even admitted by you. So it stays wrong anyway.

>>12607682
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563

>>12607689
>My data is better. It is all well adjusted. Clean sentinel probes.
Of a completely different strain which behaves completely differently, it's nice data but utterly useless in this context sorry.

> operational false positive rate is unknown to my knowledge.
so you're again talking out of your ass? what a surprise.
>Well the model put in no climate effect and that is even admitted by you. So it stays wrong anyway.
of course it's wrong, no one claimed it's perfect, but I expect you to be able to quantify this enough to tell me if we can still infer useful information about the efficacy of lockdowns. If you can't do this stop posting.

>>12607701
>completely differently, it's nice data but utterly useless in this context sorry.
Means the study is useless and unless we get to similar populations where one did lockdown and the other didn’t we will never know.
>you don’t know how bad my data really is
Well we can it’s useless by the fact we don’t know, how bad it is.
>I didn’t provide any evidence base for lockdowns, but that’s your problem
Okay.

>>12607720
>Means the study is useless and unless we get to similar populations where one did lockdown and the other didn’t we will never know.
You being unable to provide a source for the seasonal component doesn't mean we can't determine if lockdowns are effective, i'm sorry.
>Well we can it’s useless by the fact we don’t know, how bad it is.
If anything actual cases are way higher than positive tests, this isn't helping your case.
>>I didn’t provide any evidence base for lockdowns, but that’s your problem
I've provided multiple studies, all showing that lockdowns are effective. You've failed to demonstrate how even one of these studies is invalid. So I guess I'll just have to accept your concession you have no idea what you're talking about.

>>12607730
>You being unable to provide a source for the seasonal component doesn't mean we can't determine if lockdowns are effective, i'm sorry.
I provided it and you claimed it doesn’t apply, but you failed to show data on that.
>if anything actual cases are way higher than positive tests, this isn't helping your case.
Or it was all false positives and that’s much more likely. And the data being useless is tells us we can’t know.
>I've provided multiple studies, all showing that lockdowns are effective.
You didn’t. And I told you how.
>You've failed to demonstrate how even one of these studies is invalid.
I demonstrated it.
>So I guess I'll just have to accept your concession you have no idea what you're talking about.
If you can provide evidence I still would listen, but it seems you can’t.

>>12607760
>useless is
as it is

>>12607760
>I provided it and you claimed it doesn’t apply, but you failed to show data on that.
No you're just too dumb to understand that you can't compare seasonal changes in R0 between strains so insignificant they can't even be detected in the summer, vs a strain with such a high R0 it's caused a global pandemic the like of which have never even been seen before.
>Or it was all false positives and that’s much more likely. And the data being useless is tells us we can’t know.
ah you actually don't even believe the pandemic is real then. Your argument actually makes even less sense, why are you trying to argue that lockdowns aren't effective against an imaginary virus? Just double down on the imaginary part, are you brain dead?
>I demonstrated it.
see above
>If you can provide evidence I still would listen, but it seems you can’t.
multiple studies etc etc etc.

>>12607789
>ad hominem
>you don’t believe in
Okay. Sad, you can do better.
>multiple studies
And they all don’t show it.
>seasonal change is irrelevant, but I can’t provide data

>>12607804
>seasonal change is so incredibly relevant it completely invalidates any study that doesn't include it but I can't provide data so just trust me bro and by the way the entire pandemic is fake, and every recorded case is a false positive.
fixed that for you

>>12607863
You are claiming stuff I never said. But making everything up seems to be your modus operandi.

>>12607894
Pure projection on your part, all I've done in this thread is state the completely uncontroversial scientific consensus supported by countless studies and a massive body of evidence, that lockdowns work, reduce the spread and mortality of the virus. You've been making claims you can't support, repeating utter nonsense, like "all cases are false positives" and trying to make apples to semi trucks comparisons. If you can't contribute to the conversation in a meaningful way could be at least be more entertaining? I personally like people who unironically believe in schitzo conspiracy theories, just a suggestion.

>>12607923
No. You just made stuff about. Provided useless models and inclusive data. Insulted and proceeded to say your positive claims have to be disproven.

>>12607923
>uncontroversial scientific consensus
Good one.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UZMr7AEL0jQ&feature=emb_logo
Virologists being trained in creating panic.

>>12607947
I mean it is, I could keep posting studies till we hit the bump limit, but considering no one even refuted the very first one I linked I don't think it's worth the effort.

>>12607956
Just interested in something very good, if there is something.

>>12607955
https://www.bitchute.com/video/mNSO1jXnZTFj/

>>12601462
Not all of Australia had extreme lockdowns - only Melbourne.