/sci/ - Science & Math

>>12017103
There's no way to answer your question. That's my main gripe with Fermi Paradox questions like this; we have no real data and a sample size of 1. How can we make predictions?

>>12017103
There's no indication we haven't already passed it, if it exists. The great filter could easily be the mere chance that DNA ever reaches a state where it can self-replicate, as that's the requisite for evolution to even occur.

>>12017103
Its not nuclear war, climate change or space exploration. Its whether or not humanity as a whole will want to do anything after lifelike VR is invented. Why would you spend all the effort to develop a type 3 civilization or anything for that matter when you can just have it in VR for a fraction of the work? Most species that make it that far will just live in the perfect digital world they create instead of developing any further.

>>12017132
This, really. I used to think it would be some scenario like >>12017138 describes, but after studying microbio for a while, I realized how complex the workings of multicellular life truly are. The Fermi Paradox may will be explained by the fact such a system is very rare.

>>12017103
Oh sweet naïve anthropocentricism. We can no sooner disprove that two hundred thousand years ago the great Octopus Empire was overthrown and driven to the sea by a coalition of budgerigars and common squirrels than prove all this Star Trek bullcrap.

>>12017138
I'm not sure about the VR bit, but generally speaking, I think this is right.
The biggest hurdle we face is not an extinction level event caused by nuclear war or a comet or a pandemic or anything like that. I'm much more concerned with a behavioral sink or some catastrophic game theoretic scenario. I think the prospect of a totalitarian state exerting complete control over information and communication is a real possibility, or as you suggest, some sort of VR scenario that completely detaches individuals from the real world and each other. Eventually humans could (de)evolve into radioactive GMO goblin-people that are nothing more than vestigial organs on a giant factory assembly line/Amazon warehouse that covers the entire planet. Eventually the mechanical AI hivemind will determine that humans cost more than we produce, and from that point on, the human organism will be phased out as an obsolete and unnecessary component the global Judaeo-corporate machine.

>>12017103
I wonder about your naivity assuming anyone in life is ever safe and there are no freak events that ruin everything entirely by chance.

>>12017138
If society functions similar to today you'd get your off time only after school / work. In moderation this wouldn't be much different from playing games, where no one cares what you do, watching TV etc.
I don't know what a Type III civ should be, let alone I and II. I hope it refers to the entire package of technology, biological spread and correct behaviour (not all at nuclear war with another) and doesn't stick to any narrow view. I think it's a mistake to assume humans would do any work while they can use robots / androids for any physical job and AIs for any mental one once they're capable of performing well. They are cheaper, never need breaks, always have the same performance level instead of getting tired etc., can exchange huge amounts of data, don't need to bloat their ego and whatnot. Humans simply can't compete with that package once it's on it's way. This could self-improve faster than evolution would allow to catch up and let's not forget that evolution tries to safe energy, be lazy and is all about the individual with only language and later also writing offering a method of learning and archiving knowledge.

>>12017148
yeah, i'm just a biochem grad, but this seems an overwhelmingly likely scenario to me as well. evolutionary principles are remarkably simple once life is already out and about, but getting there is... complicated.

>>12017170
The endgame of this scenario is still expansion into the galaxy. If the corporate AI wants to keep growing and optimising forever, it will, given enough time, spread to other planets.

>>12017103
realizing space is fake and gay and God is real and earth is flat.

>>12017103
No idea, but right now we are about to destroy our planet. Global warming, pandemia, overpopulation, thread of nuclear war, poisoning water and soil, micro-plastics, etc.
Maybe all civilisations face problems like this and learning to work together on a global scale is the key.

This assumes that there were other civilizations and Great Filter isn't multicellular organisms (or life in general).

The universe isn't real. We are in a simulation. That is why the Filter isn't meaningful, just like a goldfish shouldn't assume it's the only one of its kind.

>>12017103
monkey, capital I self, narrative: things that don't fit thru the hole. they're things that evolved to be released like rocket stages to launch awareness from this time prison.

>>12017526
>The universe isn't real. We are in a simulation.
There actually exists idiots who believe this?

>>12017533
namaste

>>12017548

I guess you could call an oxford professor of philosophy an idiot.

https://www.simulation-argument.com/

>>12017596
>professor of philosophy
I definitely would.

>>12017596
Also you doubly so for appealing to authority for what you seem to admit is a purely philosophical endeavor.

>>12017103
The great filter is capitalism.

>>12017234
why work? the few robots to keep our digital utopia running do all the work, and there are maybe... 1000 human sized ones needed?

Digital fermi basically means civilisations turn inwards in digital worlds that have the upkeep requirements of a small village.

>>12017397
climate change is real and all but we are NOT about to destroy our planet, maybe our civilisation? a bunch of very important yet fragile lifeforms might go extinct? but the human race, life, the planet, none of those are really at a threat by us.

>>12017548
there is actual scientific proof that points in this direction. Not enough to call it yet, and fingers crossed its bullshit, but there are provable clues that have turned up in favour of this hypothesis.

>>12017640
How much do you want to bet that this "scientific proof" is the same stuff the History Channel claims is evidence for the existence of God?

>>12017611
Shouldn't you be a little more embarrassed that you watched (((Star Trek))) and fell for the propaganda hook line and sinker?

>>12017103
I think the great filter is likely to be declining g/iq of industrial populations. As a species conquers the material world it removes the selection pressures for high intelligence, individualistic societies that make such inventions possible. You end up with a terminal decline in macro innovation, with micro innovation living off the back of the industrial revolution. Such a revolution does not have to be as massive as that of the 19th century. Inventions have always changed humans evolution. Sharp tools meant we could be weaker, clothes meant we could be slimmer, farming meant we could be more 'forward thinking'.

We have more than one sample here. Cognitive archeogenetics shows such a cycle occured for the mycean greeks, Romans and potentially the indo-europeans.

>>12017628
Will the robots be AI, or will they just be a hive of emotionless slave labour? Because if we get an AI to work for us, I have a hard time believing we won't just Tay it.

>>12017657
To get past this requires either a long term eugenics programme. Or technological innovation/upgrade that surpasses the decrease in g

>>12017657
this is bullshit though, we are more incentivised to be 'smart' then ever.

The problem people are so upset with the average person being a dumbass is not that we are regressing, but that certain individuals and populations are outpacing others in leaps and bounds.

The average individual has never been as smart as today, and im not talking "knowledgeable" im talking problem solving, intuition, adaptability, ect.

Problem is our world vastly requires more and more of these traits in order to be successful, so the average knob looks like a bumbling ape. Fact is teleport him to the early bronze age and they would probably (with some initial luck to overcome the culture shock and lack of learned abilities as a child to survive) be a savant.

>>12017695
the Flynn effect.

>>12017103
Ehh, not really a filter.
We're 3 dimensional beings through and through.
Beings don't really live at lower dimensions than 3 but dimensions higher contain entities that we can't see but that can probably see us

>>12017720
the same way you see 2d, right?

if there are 3d beings, they are wholly unaware of us. We are simply "matter" to them with properties.

>>12017234
>Post scarcity
What's that?

>>12017778
A dream world where the Philosopher's Stone exists and humanity uses its physical law-breaking powers to fund space communism.

Maybe aliens realize it's utterly pointless to explore the galaxy because there's nothing but dust and rocks. Only remotely interesting thing is other aliens which any reasonably evolved intelligent beings should rightly recognize as a massive threat.

>>12017633
if this is what you chose to believe, great, but don't be surprise if reality is darker

>>12017103
The real great filter is life starting in the first place. Then a second one I suppose would be "intelligent" life starting, at least intelligent enough to create tools, develop language, etc. A third one, probably the most difficult, is FTL travel or at least colonizing other planets.

Who fucking knows though. I think it would be a mistake to assume very much about how life exists elsewhere in the universe, assuming it exists at all. For all we know there could be lifeforms the size of planets, or operating in parts of reality that neither us nor our tools can even detect.

>>12017138
What makes you think it's even possible to create such realistic simulations? We literally aren't even .01% of the way to making digital simulations on the same level of reality.

>>12017695
>The average individual has never been as good at problem solving
This is the Flynn effect. It is not on g. Even Flynn know the Flynn effect is not on g. g is decreasing worldwide.

>We are more incentivised to be smart
Yes and no. iq 120 with good interposonal skills is most optimal for accumulating wealth (This is the standard profile of a billionaire) or psychopathy. Outlier high iq and social blind people (ie geniuses) are not being incentivised.

Stupider people have been having more kids, successful intelligent people less. This has been occurring for about 150 years now - and is having a profound effect.

>inb4 not enough time to evolve
Complex traits such as intelligence are highly prone targets for selection and deleterious mutation.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160289613000470

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160289613000226

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0191886915301161

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/book/10.1002/9781118952146

Space stuff is the great filter. It got the dinosaurs. Hasn't got me yet.
I think atom bombs, socialism, anonymous imageboards, homosex, and climate change are other lesser filters against which scientists must remain forever vigilant .

>>12017103
If its the mitochondria just so happening to combine with another cell as a freak event which allowed eukaryotes to exist, we may have passed it already.

>>12017645
There is an argument to this.
>Unsustainable greed destroying the planet causing climate change to inevitably wipe any some what advanced species out before they get to space
>Unsustainable greed creating a wealth gap so large that it eventually destabilizes the world causes a war that wipes everyone out
>Unsustainable greed encourages the rich to dumb down the population, significantly slowing down advancement until something else wipes everyone out (that could have been prevented had the population advanced science enough)

The filter is civilisations realising that to advanced further past the natural selection stage they must artificially select and remove dysgenic elements.
We reached that stage and failed, soon we will be overran by stupids.

>>12017103
The Great Filter is niggers

>>12017103
The universe is too young, most species like us haven't formed yet

t. Behroozi

>>12017103

>>12017103
The filter already happened. Humans almost went extinct not long ago. That's why there's almost no genetic variability in most of the human population.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory

>>12017103
What is the difference between "great filter" and "technological singularity"?

>>12017103
it's rather obvious what it is, we probably have 50 good years of spaceflight ahead of us before it all comes crashing down.

>>12018616
By 2100, Africa's population is expected to exceed 4.2 billion in a "medium-growth" scenario. The higher end of the confidence interval is closer to 6 billion.

>>12018620
It won't get close to that. There's just not enough land in Africa to support a population of 6 billion. It's at 1.2 billion right now, and it's still overpopulated in terms of farmland/food.

>>12018633
Never say never.
https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/903

>>12018647
and yes these scenarios take into account a demographic transition, sheer momentum is enough to carry africa beyond 4 billion.

>>12017103

We made it through the great filter in 1947 with some external help and guidance.

>>12017103
we will never get past it
the final great filter is overcoming instinct in advanced society, which will always be a problem and will always be impossible
its not a filter, its a cliff you must always be climbing up, or a rock you must always push up an unending hill

>>12017103
Star Trek got it right, and the Fermi paradox illusion is almost certainly due to there being some Prime Directive-style policy of non-intervention with pre-FTL or pre- interstellar civilizations.

It's going to be like Star Trek where someone will finally crack either FTL or Avatar-style high-relativistic (>80% of C) travel and the aliens show up the next day to welcome us into interstellar civilization.

We don't see any signs of ET because to them we're like some uncontacted Amazon tribe or the fucking Sentinelese.

>>12019328
lol got another goy

>>12017103

>>12017397
>Global warming
Meme by corrupt scientists.
>pandemia
Just another flu-level virus.
>overpopulation
Was a meme fad in the 60s, get with the times grandpa.

> thread of nuclear war, poisoning water and soil, micro-plastics, etc.

Bullshit made up by headline seeking low-end journalists.

Best time in history is now, best medical treatment, longest lives, least violence, highest standard of living.

I am the great filter.
I let this civilization live because it amuse me for now. Once it get into boring crap like eternal life or infinite matter convertor I'll scrap it and start over with a new one.

>>12018579
increasing complexity grows away from the filter, forming more filters

>>12017103
one great filter is evolving traits that allow long term cooperation within the species
second great filter is realizing we must not create AI that could destroy ourselves
another one is whether we live in a place with enough crucial nonrenewable resources

>>12019328

This.

>>12017120
Anthropic reasoning.

>>12017597
>>12017602
Never have an argument to share, do you?

>>12018620
THis is never going to happen. Africans cannot maintain the infrastructure required to feed/ clothe/ house this many people.

Its a projection made by dumb people who dont understand that just bc population rises in one.

>6 billion
Hmm, what you get if you just map india onto africa (Africa is 6x the size of india). Of course africa will develop just like india...

>>12019343
sorry, forgot to add deniers and ignorants
these might be the real filter

>>12017103
Useless concept if we're alone in the universe and we probably are. Think about how big the universe is, how chaotic it is, how complex cells are, and the incredible luck of evolution to continue through multiple mass extinctions.

>>12020520
Whats mind boggling to me is that: should we really be alone, what the fuck are we doing? I'm updating my GPU drivers at work, my gf is mad because I made an unfavorable snapchat of her, and the rest of my day will be about worrying about if I have to pay tax on renting out one of my apartments short term and about building codes. All this complex shit we build and maintain, the immense amount of useless information humanity is creating every single day, but there might never be anyone or anything to see it.

>>12020535
>but there might never be anyone or anything to see it
Don't worry NPC-anon, some other people here have this thing called "consciousness"

>>12018137
greed and ambition is also the primary motivator for the implementation of new technology and the discovery of new markets which is our best hope at getting past the filter.

>>12020535
If we were confident enough that we're alone to stop searching for signs of alien life, it would probably change that like the way the Copernican revolution changed thinking. It'd make conservation and exploration much more imperative and development around that would change day-to-day life.

>>12018620
>Predicting anything 80 years into the future

>>12017103
Life is really hard. The vast majority of stars are red dwarves. Red dwarves are trash for life since their like to emit shit Randomly . So cross out basically 70% percent of stars. Then you have to cross out all the other volatile stars that like to go nuclear randomly. After you cross out all those stars cross out the stars whose life spans are really short too short of life to form in a meaningful way (just imagine it’s took a couple extinctions for us to form). This doesn’t even go into the chance of planets being in habitual zone. Seems like a huge hurdle is life just forming itself and intelligent life itself. Also vast majority of life on earth was spent without any intelligent life we are only on a small slice of the history of life on earth. Intelligent life is also hard to form. These seem to be the main filters

>>12020646
So assuming we're past the big filter, what does that mean? What should we do now? Spread out as far as possible to avoid whatever filters might come next?
Also, say we managed to colonize Mars and eventually our system and maybe the next one. Would we evolve into different species eventually?

Maybe the idea of the great filter is the great filter itself? Maybe most species think that a cataclysmic event might happen if they keep advancing, so they decide to stay put at a comfortable level

>>12020646
>Red dwarves are trash for life since their like to emit shit Randomly . So cross out basically 70% percent of stars.
Binary star systems are also very common, and would make biospheres difficult to take root given their volatility and the stability of their planetary orbits. The possibility of galactic habitable zones also would remove a lot of systems.

>>12020686
This is a common myth, but right next to us is Alpha Centaui. A binary system where earth like planets could safely orbit in the habitable zone. At least in theory.