/sci/ - Science & Math

EU in general had tighter lockdown restrictions, the US had tens of thousands of people gather in the streets for protests and mass transmissions

America is the perfect country for a communicable disease to spread. People here are proud of their stupidity, they wear it as a badge of honor.

>>11828109
>the US had tens of thousands of people gather in the streets for protests
this happened across europe too

>>11828109
reporting errors, GIGO numbers, the majority of americans being LARPing extroverts. The majority of people here are are beyond dumb. Most seem to think that American freedom = immunity from everything.

>>11828109
>>11828137
> the US had tens of thousands of people gather in the streets for protests and mass transmissions
> People here are proud of their stupidity, they wear it as a badge of honor.

Conservatives protested having to wear a mask. Liberals protested killer cops.

>>11828170
Remember, those masks prevent OUTWARD transmission. So the officers are protecting the con from the virus, but the con could still infect the officers.

And weeks later, that same guy is probably asking why the liberals don't respect the cops.

>>11828177
to be fair, typical masks don't work effectively when you have a beard

if the screaming dude in the pic would have worn a mask, it wouldn't have made much of a difference

>>11828185
>if the screaming dude in the pic would have worn a mask, it wouldn't have made much of a difference

If he wasn't screaming into the face of an officer trying to protect him, that would have made a difference. (And the mask would still lower the odds of transmission. It doesn't need to be zero to slow the spread.)

>>11828194
all fair points I suppose

What I was trying to point out was just that masks can only do so much, and need to be used properly for them to have the intended effects on transmission rates. Often they're unfortunately not used in this way.

>>11828109
a wildly incompetent US government

>>11828259
I've never had much faith in my elected leaders but the covid response has sunk it to an all time low.

>>11828272
I think you're not the only one

>>11828109
That second peak is surprisingly high, although idc because they're all most likely BLM protestors

>>11828308
i think the peak is predominantly explained by states re-opening rather than BLM protests because the states that are seeing peaks right now are the ones who opened up early (e.g. forida, georgia, etc) not per-se the onese where large protests happened (e.g. new york)

>>11828109
get ready for that second wave anon

>>11828109
>Cases
This is the wrong metric to use in order to compare 2 different places.
It is highly dependent on the amount of testing done.
A better metric would be deaths.

>finally get accepted to transfer to a university
>finally going to start my upper-div engineering/mathematics courses
>going to have to do it ALL online with no help or tutoring or in-person labs or ANYTHING
>all because freedumbs isn't free give me liberty or give me deaf
I'm going to have a professional fucking gamer moment
it almost makes me want to put my education on hold until this bullshit blows over and I can actually do in-person classes

>>11828349
fair point, but the testing between us and europe is about on par, and a lot of EU countries have actually performed more tests per capita than the US*

*https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

>>11828142
Europe isn't just the UK, Germany and France you stupid ignorant fuck.

>>11828356
besides the fact that Italy and Spain have tested far more than the US, the vast majority of Europeans live in this combined set of countries, you stupid fuck

>>11828272
we knew he was incompetent when we elected him

>>11828356
>just one leg of a daddy longleg spider stuck on the ceiling of the toilet

>>11828356
>the UK, Germany and France
this is literally across europe, you stupid fuck

>>11828109
We made it a political issue instead of a public health issue because we're all retards.

>>11828354
There still may be biases in the testing.
>are they using the same test?
>what are the criteria for being able to receive a test?
>are there differences in the number of randomized tests?
>how many people are required to get tested weekly for their job?

>>11828375
No it fucking isn't. It's not even half of "across" Europe. Across Europe doesn't even mean anything if you want to take it literally and not figuratively in which case it's just a way to say "in Europe". If you go "across Europe" you'll skip most of it. Europe isn't a single rotten entity like the US with lots of little segments trying to be both individuals and together at the same time that has some sort of collective idealisms and shit. It's just a geographical area.

>>11828410
you really think these factors can account for the MASSIVE difference between the EU and the US?

>>11828354
From your website
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#europe-usa-deaths
The EU has ~30% more people than the US and ~50% more total deaths at the same elapsed time from the first 100 deaths.

>>11828431
That doesn't tell us much, what matters is the time-course of the recovery. Many of the deaths in Europe occurred when the health care system in Italy bacame overwhelmed, but death rates there are back to 'usual' at the moment.

Are deaths in Europe still above those in the US? I doubt it.

>>11828109
what's the matter OP, never seen an exponential curve before?

Has no one pointed out simple things like geographic distance, population densities, or testing numbers yet?

>>11828430
In terms of numbers of confirmed cases? Yes absolutely. We need to compare positivity rates.

>>11828439
NO
DISTANCE MEANS NOTHING ALL AMERICAN CITIES GOT HIT AT THE SAME TIME
ITS YOUR STUPID AMERICAN FREEDUMBS

>>11828349
so is my state nearly done with covid? the new cases graph looks pretty similar

>>11828455
looks good but it's all under the assumption that there won't be another wave, which is not unlikely to happen later in the year

>>11828444
while I agree that confirmed case numbers is not the ideal metric, I think it would be bordering the absurd to claim that the difference in case numbers reflects differences in testing results or procedures alone. It seems very likely that the US is not containing the spread very well.

>>11828460
>winter
YES BABY GIVE IT TO ME

>>11828130
Yes but only certain protests transmit the virus. It depends on your cause.

>>11828314
>georgia
Doesn't look like much of a peak. http://gacovid-19.com/

>>11828487
gotta look at weekly averages and across longer periods of time to see the trends properly

>>11828170
>5600 people killed by police nationwide in the past 2 decades (includes whites, Hispanics and cases where the victim was openly firing on police or others)
>120,000 people dead in 3 months from covid

>”it’s worth the health hazard for people to go out and protest the very serious public health issue of African Americans being killed by police”

I can’t say anything about it or the liberal hate mob will get me fired for being a racist and ruin my life but what the fuck

>>11828438
get out

>>11828437
Europe currently seeing less deaths per day than the US.
I don't think it is a completely fair comparison since more of the high risk people in Europe have already been removed and they might be further along in herd immunity.
41.5% of the US population is at least age 45
46.1% of the EU population is at least age 45
Clearly the amount of old people makes a difference which would make europe look a little better than the raw deaths per capita.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

>what matters is the time-course of the recovery
What matters are the numbers after it is all done. It would be interesting to see how Sweden's final deaths per high-risk-capita compare to those of countries that went full lockdown.
In the short term it looks like they fucked up but what if their early deaths were going to die either way?
What if this thing is just a boomer remover and nothing we do short of perfect isolation really matters?

>>11828170

Conservatives protested not being allowed to conduct commerce and the fact that this was hurting small businesses more than big corps due to choosy closures. Liberals protested a few people dying while getting arrested per year in mobs of hundreds of thousands nationwide, burning and looting shit, and potentially causing thousands more additional covid deaths within their own black/liberal city communities that will far outstrip the total amount of unjustified deaths at the hands of police over the past decade.

Well done! In fact, they're still out on the streets protesting. There was a major protest for Black Trans Rights in NYC the other day, I shit you not. A massive protest for Black Trans Rights, right there at ground zero for COVID in NYC. The party of science!

>>11828510
>What matters are the numbers after it is all done.
Obviously that would depend on the time-course of the recovery.

>they might be further along in herd immunity.
That only works from ~60% immunity upwards, but antibody testing indicates that on average not even 5% of Europe has been infected.
>What if this thing is just a boomer remover and nothing we do short of perfect isolation really matters?
I'm sorry but this is just completely idiotic. You might not care about your family but I do.

And if Europe is anything to go by, then many things besides perfect isolation are effective since almost all European countries have ended lockdowns, with only softer restrictions still in place. For me, a situation like that until we have a vaccine is entirely preferable over countless deaths.

>>11828259
Should Trump have been more authoritarian?

>>11828468
>while I agree that confirmed case numbers is not the ideal metric, I think it would be bordering the absurd to claim that the difference in case numbers reflects differences in testing results or procedures alone.
Why? If we run ten times as many tests then assuming similar rates of positivity, we will see ten times as many cases. Again, positivity rates are important, it looks like we are a little over 5% at the moment
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states
Do we have similar data for EU?

>>11828539
no, but leading by example wouldn't have hurt

Merkel is not authoritarian, but she got her shit together instead of crying and shitting her pants like a child

>>11828493
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/georgia
Georgia's positivity rate is about where it's always been

>>11828542
>If we run ten times as many tests
but we know that the US isn't doing this

link to testing numbers have already been posted, and are on par between europe and the US. Many european countries have tested more than the US have

>>11828543
What kind of concrete actions would you like Trump to have taken?

>>11828549
Testing and contact tracing, both of which have proven effective. My online conservative friends think this is illegal because some conspiracy about the government tracking citizens.

The government tracks who has a driver’s license
Acceptable
The government tracks who pays taxes
Acceptable
The government tracks home and car ownership
Acceptable
The government tracks who’s carrying a virus and can spread it to others.
UNACCEPTABLE REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

They think they have a right to kill people because muh freedums You do not have the freedom to throw rocks at cars. You do not have the freedom to light fireworks off in the freeway. You do not have the freedom to burn down a school. You do not have the freedom to kill people because you refuse to stay indoors and wear a mask.

>>11828547
If you're talking about the worldmeter website, US has done nearly twice as many tests as the next country (russia), about 3.5 times as many tests as the UK, six times as many tests as Spain...

>>11828557

Donald Trump gets called a fascist for every little thing he does and you think he's going to get away with literally tracing the lives and actions of American citizens and picking them out at will for testing? Lmao

>>11828557
>rhetoric rhetoric rhetoric
You're pretty fired up aren't you? Contact tracing does not just mean tracing "who's carrying a virus and can spread it to others", it means tracing literally everybody, where you go, who you meet with, whether you are healthy or sick, so that if you do catch the virus they can track through all your contacts. Can you at least understand how some people find this distasteful without blaming it on "freedumb"?

>>11828549
Not being an absolute moron in general.
Wearing a mask himself instead of being too proud. He cares more about his image than the lives of the american people or the economy.
He could also not force the media to sit closer together for a "better picture". A lot of journalists were unhappy about that.

>>11828558
are you retarded? the absolute number is irrelevant, the number of tests *per capita* is what matters in this comparison, and there many European countries are out-testing the US

>>11828109
biggest difference is the education of the two populations. most americans don't think the virus is real or think it's less dangerous than the flu. I live in the south and get scowled at for wearing a mask at the grocery store. people really do wear stupidity as a badge of honor here

>>11828387
This too. Trump kinda fucked up the CDC though and blamed everything on Obama.

>>11828500
Police killings is one aspect of the problem, and can't be avoided by taking necessary precautions in some cases. The issue is police brutality, and not killings in particular (although that is part of the problem).

>>11828587

>The mask does anything at all

>>11828584
Why is that what matters in this comparison? I hear absolute confirmed cases given as a statistic far more often than cases per capita.

>>11828109
>What gives?
it's fake

>>11828583
I actually agree with him that healthy people wearing masks is silly, I have seen no evidence that this is effective

>>11828351
I know the feeling friend. You're not the only one.

>>11828604
I know you're probably trolling, but there are many studies showing they significantly reduce transmission. you're 100% wrong here. countries that required masks in public have reduced the spread of the virus compared to places like America where it's a statement to not wear one

>>11828617
>but there are many studies showing they significantly reduce transmission
I said healthy people wearing masks, not sick people
>b-but asymptomatic
There is no evidence to indicate that asymptomatic transmission is common

>>11828601
Because you're comparing the US to individual countries with a far smaller population. If you'd sum tests across Europe, as in the picture in the OP, that would be more fair. You'd find that Europe has conducted more tests in total. But you aren't doing that, meaning the comparison is retarded.

>>11828620
I refuse to believe someone can be this stupid. Masks reduce the rate at which particulates can be breathed in. it's that simple.

>>11828617

Go ahead and start posting them. The studies I've read say the opposite because it isn't primarily spread by airborne transmission, the mask has a negligible effect and washing your hands/not touching your face or things is the biggest singular thing you can do.

>>11828520
>Conservatives protested not being allowed to conduct commerce and the fact that this was hurting small businesses more than big corps due to choosy closures
... leaving out the age-old "infringing on muh constitutional rights" arg, which hardly makes sense in the context of disease prevention
>Liberals protested a few people dying while getting arrested per year in mobs of hundreds of thousands nationwide, burning and looting shit, and potentially causing thousands more additional covid deaths within their own black/liberal city communities that will far outstrip the total amount of unjustified deaths at the hands of police over the past decade.
Again, police killings is A PART of police brutality, which is the subject of the protests
>more people die by automobile accidents so why aren't they protesting cars:^)
I think someone's cherry-picking here

>>11828627
It sounds like you're implying that *you* wearing a mask prevents *you* from getting sick, but this is not the expert consensus

>>11828629
>... leaving out the age-old "infringing on muh constitutional rights" arg, which hardly makes sense in the context of disease prevention

How does it not? Freedom isn't a guarantor of safety, never been the case. Taking advantage of a crisis to institute authoritarianism is an age-old tactic, a crisis alone doesn't warrant drastic action like that. Anyway, you're ignoring my other point, big corporations weren't held to the same standard and were allowed to operate. It's essentially a planned economy. Not that I'm in full agreement with these protestors, just pointing out that you're ignoring some more serious things they were protesting.

>Again, police killings is A PART of police brutality, which is the subject of the protests

What is your point? As I said, thousands of additional covid deaths >> unjustified deaths at the hands of police. You're saying it's fine that tons more people die in these protests because people also get roughed up while being arrested? You couldn't pick a better time than the middle of pandemic that you SWEAR is the biggest thing ever to do this? Can you not see how blatantly hypocritical and stupid it looks? The media might be covering for the protestors but average people can see the absurdity.

> I think someone's cherry-picking here

Yes, the people who put 100x more emphasis on the occasional, isolated police killing than the real violence plaguing their communities and killing tons more of their lives. The truth is that modern progressives are just an inconsistent, chaotic messheap of misplaced priorities. One moment the pandemic is a showstopping lockdown inducing event, and then they see a sad video and take to the streets by the hundreds of thousands. This isn't how rational people behave.

>>11828623
Is there a place to see European testing over time? The worldmeters site linked earlier in the thread only lists total tests. They have a now vs. 2 days ago option, so I can see that US did 552,309 new tests in the last 2 days while UK did 139,612 and Spain, Germany, France, and Sweden did none (these are the only countries I compared)

>>11828170
>Conservatives protested having to wear a mask. Liberals protested killer cops.
Wrong.

Conservative leaning protested people being arrested for going outside/making a living/not wearing masks/constitution issue(irrelevant since the real issue was lives being affected).
Liberals protested because racism/police brutality.

>>11828644
>Taking advantage of a crisis to institute authoritarianism is an age-old tactic, a crisis alone doesn't warrant drastic action like that.
Less taking advantage and more preventing harm. People tend to disagree on the motives of the gov't in this instance, but I think it's reasonable to assume that these actions are better for the community, even if it means the Mom and Pop shop has to be closed for a month or two. Hardly gov't tyranny imo
>big corporations weren't held to the same standard and were allowed to operate.
I completely agree; it's unfair. But at the same time, United closes and thousands are out of jobs. Mom and Pop shop closes and 3 people lose their jobs. It's unfair for a reason. Ideally, everyone could get bail outs, but that's not the case.
>You're saying it's fine that tons more people die in these protests because people also get roughed up while being arrested?
No. Hence why I'm not protesting.
>You couldn't pick a better time than the middle of pandemic that you SWEAR is the biggest thing ever to do this?
Tell me about it. It was an untimely situation that, with media over-exposition, was enough to stir thousands to take to the streets. I think the pandemic made it more opportune if anything, because everyone has cabin fever. Young people don't seem to feel threatened by COVID.
>Yes, the people who put 100x more emphasis on the occasional, isolated police killing than the real violence plaguing their communities and killing tons more of their lives.
You're minimizing the protests here, because they're about more than just police killings.
>The truth is that modern progressives are just an inconsistent, chaotic messheap of misplaced priorities.
Yeah. And the same can be said about the right - just look at Trump and what he's done to shape the modern conservative
>they see a sad video and take to the streets
nothing to do with politics, more to do with media manipulation and gullible people

>>11828109
vastly higher chinese population in the US ensured the outbreak was uncontrollable which epidemiologists have always known. The lockdown and quarantine was never about stopping the spread of the virus, it was about slowing it so as not to overburden healthcare providers.

>>11828680
>but I think it's reasonable to assume that these actions are better for the community
Why? So many people will have had their lives set back or ruined by this lockdown

>>11828109
Science tells us if you protest right now and join BLM, that will cure Coronavirus. If you protested when they arrested people for going outside, then you were killing people. The virus has mutated. Its now weak to liberal talking points.

>>11828725

Well CNN told me that Trump rallies spread the virus quickly but BLM riots have anti-viral properties that actually make you more immune

>>11828723
As you mentioned earlier, thousands of lives are at risk otherwise. Death is worse than professional setbacks and a rough financial situation. It doesn't help that plenty of people don't recognize the severity of COVID, making opening back up the worst possible fucking thing in the world because Karen "has a medical condition" and Cleatus is not a "sheep that listens to CNN". If people were competent and weren't fucking retards, opening back up would be possible, as I agree with you that this sucks. I lost my job at an Ivy League because of COVID, so I know how it feels. But at the same time, it's a lethal and virulent disease that has the potential to kill many people. So, sorry you lost your job, but there's a bigger picture here.

>>11828647
>Spain, Germany, France, and Sweden did none
This can't be right, I work at a lab in Germany and we're doing hundreds of tests a day, 7 days a week.

>>11828753
>As you mentioned earlier
wut
Certainly one death is worse than one bad financial situation, but is one death worse than a thousand bad financial situations?

>>11828759
Then worldometers.info does not have accurate data

>>11828562
>>11828566
Yes, I am aware what it is you dumbfucks. It’s what they did in Korea and why Korea has 1% of the deaths the US has. Again, and I can’t say this enough, you do not have the freedom to kill people during a pandemic because you don’t want to be tracked.

>NOOOOOOOOO NOT THE TESTERINO! IF YOU TEST MORE THERE'S MORE CASES! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

>>11828793
You never had the freedom to kill people individually but we have always had the freedom to kill people through long chains of cause and effect, otherwise cars would be illegal

>>11828628
This conclusion sounds right to me but you should link those studies if you remember them

>>11828800
If you trace long chain of cause/effect, then all sense of responsibility becomes meaningless. We're essentially operating on a chain of cause/effect since big bang.

>>11828817
Yes I agree, that's why I find people who say things like "if you don't support masks /contact tracing / mandatory vaccination / loveboxes then you are KILLING AMERICANS" obnoxious

>>11828765
It might, but I think testing statistics are simply not reported every day but on a weekly or monthly basis. The same with recoveries.

>>11828822
You can estimate (statistically) what's your R0 with and without various measures and, given the average R0 of where you live, how many people will be infected because of you. Multiply by the death rate and voilà, you know how many people you killed.

>>11828868
Sure and you could also work out the number of people who die from automobile accidents and air quality related disease to work out how many people you killed by driving to the store instead of walking.

>>11828856
Well, the United States one seems to be being updated daily. If there have been tests in germany over the last two days with no corresponding update, then it is either wrong today or it was wrong on Sunday.
Skepticism of sources is the correct response.

>>11828802
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext
Face mask use could result in a large reduction in risk of infection (n=2647; aOR 0·15, 95% CI 0·07 to 0·34, RD −14·3%, −15·9 to −10·7; low certainty), with stronger associations with N95 or similar respirators compared with disposable surgical masks or similar (eg, reusable 12–16-layer cotton masks; pinteraction=0·090; posterior probability >95%, low certainty).

>>11828895
Almost all of the studies in this review about face masks were in a health care / hospital setting, all three of the community-transmission studies have "no difference" in their confidence interval

>>11828644
>326 African Americans died by suffocating in bed/auto erotic asphyxiation
Fascinating

>>11828885
For accidents, as most people never end up in a fatal crash in their entire life, the (statistical) kill score is pretty low. Air quality is trickier.
But the main point is that car crash aren't viral: if you infect 3 people, and they each infect 3 people, etc. it's really quick. If you don't infect these people, a whole branch of the tree disappears (except if they would have been infected anyway by other people, but I don't think it's saturated like that anywhere).

>>11828909
To add to this, since I'm bored enough to actually dig into citations, the three "community-transmission studies are"
>Probable Secondary Infections in Households of SARS Patients in Hong Kong
seems like a healthcare setting study in disguise, since it is measuring what happens to visitors who do/do not wear masks while visiting SARS patients in the hospital
>https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3322931/
Shows that mask use prevents the wearer from contracting SARS, not preventing others from the wearer, which is contradictory to most expert advice
>SARS transmission in Vietnam outside of the health-care setting
The metareview gives this as a study that actually shows masks slightly increase risk, but the only time the word "mask" occurs in the article is the sentence "Ninety-five percent of contacts reported never wearing a mask during contact with the SARS case."

Given that these are all sorta duds, why the hell should I trust anything this metareview has to say?

>>11828924
>as most people never end up in a fatal crash in their entire life, the (statistical) kill score is pretty low
I have not been sick with coronavirus yet, so by this logic the amount of people I have killed is zero. The number of people who die from automobile accidents per year is 1.35 million people according to the WHO, compared to 472K coronavirus deaths so far

>>11828170
Based.

>>11828942
>Shows that mask use prevents the wearer from contracting SARS, not preventing others from the wearer, which is contradictory to most expert advice
The "expert" advice was designed specifically to remove your freedom to choose. By making your choices primarily an impact on others rather than one's own self, they negated your freedom of choice.
The annoying thing is the false implication that masks are the only way to prevent spreading the virus. Where I live the population density is pretty low. We've only had one death in our county and that was months ago. The number of cases is very low. Even in stores people generally didn't crowd each other regardless of if there is a pandemic going on or not. Social distancing is a much better solution here. But urbanites cannot envision rural areas as being anything other than cities with cows. They see everything through their overcrowded densely packed lens. So they demand everyone follow the rules that work best for life where packing into a subway car like sardines is a requirement for living.
If city folks would stop trying to force everyone to accommodate the downsides of city living, they might get a better reception for their ideas. For rural areas, simply not getting in each other's faces a hundred times a day is much more effective than wearing a tissue paper surgical mask.

>>11828109
Remember when Trump got impeached?
Do you remember why he got impeached?

It was for attempted quid pro quo with Ukraine, which Ukraine refused.
Guess what? It wasn't only Ukraine, it was China also.
Can you guess what favor China asked? China wanted Trump to downplay the danger of the virus. The downplaying of this virus is what lead to where we are today. Was this China just trying to protect their asses, or was China intentionally using Trump to destroy his own country, knowing that a delayed response to the outbreak would be devastating.

Basically, Trump asked China for help in his reelection.
China said, sure we'll help. You just need to ensure this pandemic kills as many Americans as you can. This is why the GOP has adopted a PRO-CORONAVIRUS political stance. They want Americans to die, because they were ordered by China to make it so.

also, 1000 internet points if someone can photoshop pic so it's a jar of honey stuck on his hand with Winnie the Pooh AKA Xi Jinping at his side trying to remove the jar

>>11828308
>most likely BLM protestors
wrong

>>11828483
oh look, wearing masks
makes a difference it seeems

>>11829038
he's not vindicated
https://youtu.be/4UJeOr-cbgw?t=1m50s

>>11828305
that's a lot of data points

>>11829055
Correct.
GOP chose self interest over interest of the nation.
They're just as traitorous as Trump in my eyes. It's a pity you can't put the entire GOP as a whole on trial for treason.

>>11829038
>or was China intentionally using Trump
I read an interview with Bolton the other day and he pretty much said guys like putin and winnie the pooh played him like a fiddle.

>>11828549
Eating a bullet
Drinking Bleach
Taking a selfie with pajeet in front of a freight train
The list is endless.

>>11828372
As much as I enjoy shitting on cheeto in chief just an absolute failure of leadership across the board.

>>11829176
>cheeto in chief just an absolute failure of leadership across the board.
The 1 trillion dollar question is, will he fail to lead the country to authoritarianism and total collapse. Just how much of a failure is he? In a way, maybe we should be more grateful he sucks so much at everything tries to do.

>>11829176
>cheeto in chief just an absolute failure of leadership across the board.
The 1 trillion dollar question is, will he fail to lead the country to authoritarianism and total collapse. Just how much of a consistent failure is he?
In a weird way, maybe we should be more grateful that he sucks so much at everything tries to do.

>>11828762
It's more on the order of a thousand deaths. Come on, now you're not even trying to make a sound argument.

>>11829049
Now do you actually think you're being /sci/entific here or are you just meming?

>>11829152
I see you follow the Daily Show school of political thought

>>11829309
Are you criticizing my absolute numbers or my ratio? E.g. is it fair to ask about a thousand deaths vs a million financial ruins?

Oregon County Exempts Non-White People From Mandatory Face Mask Order
https://www.newsweek.com/oregon-county-exempts-non-white-people-mandatory-face-mask-order-1512895
Remember, Democrats are the party of SCIENCE!

>>11829045
Does protesting racism shield people from the virus?

>>11829462
Now do you actually think you're being scientific here or are you just mewing?

>>11829485
Deaths. Final answer. Financial repercussions can be alleviated with government assistance and adherence to CDC recommendations -> opening up sooner.

>>11828351
Honestly not that bad an idea to be honest. If I were going into grad school rn I would think about it.

>>11829584
Staunch pro-lifer I see.
>Financial repercussions can be alleviated with government assistance
we got a real economist over here

>>11828109
Coronavirus is a democrat hoax and weaker than the flu and the niggers have doomed us all to coronavirus infections

>>11828483
yeah, if the cause is "we don't want to wear masks", it seems to correlate strongly with new infections
strange how that works

>>11829768
You should write a paper demonstrating the first known evidence that masks prevent community-based transmission, you could make quite a name for yourself

>>11828142
>this happened across europe too
Where most cunts already have had decent control of the pandemic for more than a month.

>>11828109
The USA started testing in earnest much later than most EU countries. The spike should have been much higher at March 28, but the lack of testing didn't reveal how bad the situation was. Cases were falling by mid to late May, but it's not apparent from this chart because the early numbers are so off. The recent rise is due to protests and states reopening.

>>11828185
>to be fair, typical masks don't work effectively when you have a beard
This is for N95 respirators which require a tight seal. Cloth and surgical masks will always allow some air to escape from the sides, beard or no beard.

>>11828510
>What matters are the numbers after it is all done. It would be interesting to see how Sweden's final deaths per high-risk-capita compare to those of countries that went full lockdown.
Sweden's numbers are awful compared to their neighbors, but the countries that didn't reach herd immunity are going to have a big problem once flu season begins. Sweden may be over the COVID-19 hump by then and will only have to deal with the typical seasonal viruses.

>>11829768
Did you not notice that the people in the photo left their noses uncovered? This seems to be the universal way that the mask fetishers wear their masks, once again showing that this is about compliance with an arbitrary dictate rather than about public health.

>>11829501
Note that not a single one of the mask defenders is willing to touch this story with a 100 foot pole. It's an amazing virus that attacks based on ideology. That really does make it a novel virus.

>>11828170
>Conservatives protested having to wear a mask. Liberals protested hero cops.
ftfy

>>11828623
Russua is the only country with mass testing mroe comprehensive than the US. And they have a very low death rate to show for it. Europe's extremely high death rates bely their undertesting.

>>11829990
OK yuri

>>11829971
As a staunch anti-masker this story is good news, the more people think "masks aren't that important" the better

>>11829715
>Coronavirus is a democrat hoax and weaker than the flu
It's not the plague, but really? Yeesh.

>>11828942
>Shows that mask use prevents the wearer from contracting SARS, not preventing others from the wearer, which is contradictory to most expert advice
If by experts, you mean Western experts, and study after study have shown masks are very effective at preventing the wearer from becoming infected.

>Christians circa 100ad
>You can crucify us but it won't stop us gathering for worship, my immortal soul trumps everything

>Christians circa 2020ad
>oh no the sniffles, the government says we all have to shut our houses of worship down until they say otherwise, guess we better be good little slaves and comply

You elect a clown, you get a circus

>>11830275
But circuses are fun, at least they used to be before they got rid of all the animals.

>>11830275

who's the clown

>>11829176
Yes. The role of a clown is to lampoon those who are less egregious about their own incompetence

>>11830654
>who's the clown
see https://rt.live/

>>11830681

>No no no let's not look at the hardest figure available for COVID, its deaths, look at this other thing I cherrypicked that makes me feel better about Democratic states doing a shit job at containing the disease

>>11830686
I'm not sure you understand what this graph represents, so I'll explain it a little.

The R value represents how quickly the virus is spreading. An R value of 1 means that for each 1 person infected, they will infect exactly 1 other person. An R value of 2 means 1 sick person will make 2 people infected. So long as the R value is over 1, the outbreak will grow in that state and things will only get worse over time. If it's below 1, then the outbreak is shrinking, and things will get better in that state, over time. It's the most accurate way to predict how many people are going to die. Not how many have died, but predict future deaths from covid19.
Also, WTF is up with New Mexico? Their state reopened, and the R value peaked at exactly 1 perfectly flat lines. What are the odds of this happening? What are the odds New Mexico is manipulating their data so their R value appears to never go above 1?

>>11830758

I understand it perfectly. I don't give a shit, I've seen data like this posted in response to what I have posted (deaths per capita) for the past 2 months and... MIRACULOUSLY... those heckin bad red staterinos are STILL not catching up anon!!! It's almost like your data isn't deterministic of anything. Tell you what, I'll give you yet another 1-2 months of sitting there hoping and praying that the big bad covid death wave finally hits mean old Florida and Texas and we can circle on back here again.

>>11830772
>I'll give you yet another 1-2 months of sitting there hoping and praying that the big bad covid death wave finally hits mean old Florida and Texas

I hope you know nobody actually wants people to suffer. Please don't mistake genuine concern and agitate about red states as some form of malicious death wish. I mean you may have different political beliefs but we're all still human. please take care of yourself anon...seriously

>>11830834

I don't think most people really think that way at this point. We are truly gripped in endless team sports, like the comment I was originally replying to.

Why should I give a rat's ass about any of this when cities like Chicago and New York haven't shut down their subway systems? Those are by far the worst disease vectors. Why must everyone else pay for the sins of those cities? I'll continue to do what I've been doing, which is mostly what I had been doing before the virus, and my odds will still be lower than city dwellers suited up in whatever towels they find the most attention getting. I'd have to drive at least sixty miles to get to a county that's had a virus death.

>>11828130
Doesn't explain why US only saw a shallow decline since April.

>>11830834
>Please don't mistake genuine concern and agitate about red states as some form of malicious death wish.
They seemed to be gloating about the number of deaths in blue states, so I wouldn't expect rational behavior.

>>11830873

>Pointing out the fact that Dem leadership is letting their people down death wise when someone claims Trump is behind everything is "gloating"

Could you maybe... ask someone like Cuomo to do a better job? Not let the virus spread like wildfire through nursing homes?

>>11830870
I mentioned that here: >>11829938. I suspect the decline has been steeper than we realize, but the limited testing early on meant the initial numbers were far too low. Testing only started to catch up to the outbreak after lock downs were put in place, so we don't know how high the spike really was.

>>11830880
Who's defending Cuomo? It's the fact that your immediate defense of Trump was to point out all the dead people you don't like.

>>11830890

No, to point out gross mismanagement on account of people other than Trump. He has no control whatsoever over the big business area of the northeast coast. Imagine Donald Trump flying in there and trying to tell them to shut down their travel and commerce and trying to micromanage the state of their lockdown measures.

>>11828483
>Yes but only certain protests transmit the virus. It depends on your cause.
yup.

>>11830912
who cares what the mainstream media says. only boomers who are too stupid to figure out the internet pay attention.

>>11828109
burgers gonna burger no matter what

Doesn't matter. Lockdown is not a cure for COVID, just a delaying strategy. What is the point in staying locked down if it will just come back the moment you open?

>>11829829
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/10/2009637117

>>11831005
To prevent a single surge from overwhelming the healthcare infrastructure (if you're going to have millions get sick, scattering them is better than all at once, which would result in many deaths due to inability to get treatment). Also, to buy time for a vaccine. I'm not saying it's the right course, but those are the reasons.

>>11828592
Where were the protests for Daniel Shaver? It's because Floyd was black. Brooks punched a cop, stole a taser, then fired the taser at the cop chasing him, thus bringing his end upon himself by making himself a threat.

>>11831005
>if it will just come back the moment you open
Other countries have opened up perfectly fine.
How? You quarantine sick people. It's that fucking simple.
You do tests, find those who are sick, and quarantine the sick so they stop spreading the virus.

The problem's arise when there are too many sick people to test. When the outbreak is so large we can't deal with it. At that point you need a change in tactics. Instead of quarantining sick people, you quarantine everyone.
If you lack the capabilities to test everyone who is sick, then you must assume everyone is sick, and quarantine everyone. This is how you defeat the virus without a cure.

Quarantine the sick. It's so simple.

>>11828868
I hope you are one of the people I'm responsible for because you're such a faggot

>>11830174
Source?

>>11828727
blm people
-are outside
-wear masks

>>11828109
dood tinder you just piss in their asses and spread it. its like a life time achievement award waiting to be stolen and defaced with a bad paint job where you put john wayne gacys clown make up design on it

>>11828109
Not to mention hospitals get more federal aid if it's a WuFlu patient, so basically anyone with pneumonia gets a respirator and their negligent death is chalked up to the WuFlu

>>11828727
I heard this from the WHO too. The virus isn't as dangerous as we thought it was 2 weeks ago. Our bad for crashing the economy.

>>11831360
are you saying there's a 2nd mysterious illness that's giving people pneumonia OTHER than the "WuFlu"

are you a conspiracy theorist?

>>11831365
>>11831360
The absolute cope with these retards

>>11831367
Its THE /pol/ conspiracy

>>11828423
>lots of little segments trying to be both individuals and together at the same time
How is that not literally the EU and UK?

>>11831365
Post source please

PREDICTION: this will be the first day where the number of daily new cases in the USA surpasses 40k

>>11831365
Its meta-analytically estimated fatality rate is 0.75%*. That means that if every person on earth is infected (not likely of course), about 57 million people would die. A case fatality rate of 0.5% would still be 5 times the commonly cited case fatality rate of adult seasonal influenza.**

*https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v2
**https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2766121

>>11831432
210K / week
it's back at the mid-April numbers again
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?scale=linear&location=France&location=Germany&location=Italy&location=Spain&location=US&location=United+Kingdom

>>11828259
Governments are often a reflection of the people they govern. Americans in general are incompetent.

>>11831576
thanks for that link

>>11828483
Why are they all fat and ugly?

>>11828888
Countries simply differ in the statistics they report. That's rather obvious. But if anything, this puts a lower bound on the number of tests conducted in Europe based on the numbers on woldometer, because if there is a reporting lag in the number of tests then the true number is higher than what is visible on the website. This doesn't mean those numbers are useless in their entirety.
>Skepticism of sources is the correct response.
Skepticism is fine and all but you seem to believe that this somehow implies that we cannot infer anything from the numbers we're seeing now. You're claiming that the US is out-testing other countries (correct me if I'm wrong) but based on these numbers we can clearly see that the US is not doing that at all.

>>11828723
>So many people will have had their lives set back or ruined by this lockdown
That's actually a misconception. If you look at previous pandemics, economic fallout is largely due to the fact that consumer fear causes them to spend less money rather than a direct consequence of the lockdown itself. Even in the united states, during the spanish flu, the states that enacted the strictest and earliest measures were the ones who paradoxically suffered the LEAST economic damages, and recovered more quickly when the measures were lifted.

There is no such thing as a trade off between public health and health of the economy; the two go hand in hand and one cannot thrive without the other. Economic fallout is mostly a consequence of the pandemic itself rather than a consequence of measures that contain said pandemic.

Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560

> What are the economic consequences of an influenza pandemic? And given the pandemic, what are the economic costs and benefits of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI)? Using geographic variation in mortality during the 1918 Flu Pandemic in the U.S., we find that more exposed areas experience a sharp and persistent decline in economic activity. The estimates imply that the pandemic reduced manufacturing output by 18%. The downturn is driven by both supply and demand-side channels. Further, building on findings from the epidemiology literature establishing that NPIs decrease influenza mortality, we use variation in the timing and intensity of NPIs across U.S. cities to study their economic effects. We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over. Our findings thus indicate that NPIs not only lower mortality; they may also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic.

>>11829049
Wearing masks incorrectly makes no difference. Look at the picture, the girl's nose is out of her mask.

>>11831638
Because they believe you don't have to sacrifice for freedom.

>>11828109
Who cares? Death rate is 0.02 from NYC antibody test.

>>11831850
Its meta-analytically estimated fatality rate is 0.75%*. That means that if every person on earth is infected (not likely of course), about 57 million people would die. A case fatality rate of 0.5% would still be 5 times the commonly cited case fatality rate of adult seasonal influenza.**

*https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v2
**https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2766121

>>11831853
Thanks for that data. I'll use those numbers in my analysis as well. But, the antibody tests from what I know are better than pcr. Maybe you know the answer to this but, can a pcr test differentiate between sars-cov2 and any coronavirus? From what I read about it, it seemed like they used parts of the genome that don't change much over mutations to tell the pcr what to react to. Wouldn't that leave you open to detecting any coronavirus rather than just sars cov2?

>>11831904
>can a pcr test differentiate between sars-cov2 and any coronavirus?
Yes, it can.

Whether you are conflating SARS-CoV2 and other coronaviri depends on the primer you use though, but standard practice is obviously to use those that are specific to SARS-CoV2. In the very early stages of the pandemic, those primers were hard to come by, and some labs would use more generic ones, but now specific primers are being produced in sufficient quantities to be the standard. So numbers in developed countries are unlikely to be skewed by other coronaviri.

>>11831916
Thanks, do you know of any good studies on economic comparisons of life lost vs impact of disease response of varying degrees like masks/testing mandatory, stay home orders, lockdowns, etc.? Also philosophy and theology of lockdown papers, I know as a general rule if you are in America the system is built off John Locke. So rights are God given, therefore government can not impose authoritarian restrictions. imo that's what Gödel missed by looking at the constitution only when he found his loophole.

>>11830174
In a health-care setting yes when you regularly change them and observe strict hygiene protocol, but not just wearing them out in the community

>>11831107
All of the evidence in this paper that community mask use works is contained in this pic related which I personally do not find a convincing argument.

>>11831367
Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) Infection
Human Parainfluenza Virus (HPIV) Infection
Influenza (Flu)
Legionnaires' Disease
Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Infection
Pneumococcal Disease
Pneumocystis Pneumonia
Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection
Rhinovirus Infection

>>11831667
>You're claiming that the US is out-testing other countries (correct me if I'm wrong
In terms of absolute numbers yes, in terms of per capita no but I don't care
My basic argument was that if the US runs more tests than the EU then it will have more positive results than the EU.

>>11831826
Do we know the unemployment rate or the amount of business closures caused by the 1918 pandemic? Also the economics of 1918 were in general very different from the globalized service-based economics of 2020

>>11832010
>if the US runs more tests than the EU
But the US doesn't. Only if you compare the US to individual member states of the EU. We've been over this already.
>but I don't care
then that's your problem

>>11832008
>g-guys I found a list of causes of pneumonia
What's your point?

>>11832016
No we haven't. It was pointed out that although it seems like the EU has by this point run more tests total (although as far as I know nobody ever added up the rows in worldometers to get this exactly), but then I noted that if you look at tests done in the last two days the US seems to have done way more testing than the total EU, particularly because Germany, Spain etc. had zero tests done. Then Germanon chimes in and says this can't be right because he run many tests yesterday.
So I ask again, do we have a good source for comparing numbers of recent tests done by EU to recent tests done by the US?
>then that's your problem
Yes and you caring is your problem, but the numbers of cases thrown around by media are presented in absolute terms and not in per-capita terms, so it is relevant to look at testing in absolute terms in my opinion

>>11832021
Anon seemed to be skeptical that an virus besides SARS2 would cause pneumonia

>>11832031
Did you read the post he replied to?

Are we really suggesting COVID-19 pneumonias are actually something else because $$?

>>11832028
>particularly because Germany, Spain etc. had zero tests done.
Are you serious? It is impossible that these countries did zero tests, since these countries reported daily new cases in the last two days.

> do we have a good source for comparing numbers of recent tests done by EU to recent tests done by the US?
Recent tests? Not that I'm aware of. Like I said, countries obviously differ in how frequently they report statistics. It's also completely fucking irrelevant, since what matters is that you're claiming that the US is out-testing everyone. That's demonstrably false.

>>11832059
>Not that I'm aware of.
Actually, here we go:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109066/coronavirus-testing-in-europe-by-country/

It's as of june 18th.

>>11832066
>>11832059
>>11832028
And actually, this is even better:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

scroll down to the chart, and you'll see positivity rates of tests over time

if anything the US performing severely worse than europe by far in terms of positivity rates, they're under-testing relative to europe

>>11832052
Hospitals in the US do have a financial incentive yes
>https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/
>https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/hospital-payments-and-the-covid-19-death-count/
>(a guy quoted in the USA Today article) Hospital administrators might well want to see COVID-19 attached to a discharge summary or a death certificate. Why? Because if it's a straightforward, garden-variety pneumonia that a person is admitted to the hospital for – if they're Medicare – typically, the diagnosis-related group lump sum payment would be $5,000. But if it's COVID-19 pneumonia, then it's $13,000, and if that COVID-19 pneumonia patient ends up on a ventilator, it goes up to $39,000.

>>11832052
US doctors spent decades mass-prescribing opioids to patients, largely because it makes their life easier and they got tons of funding from manufacturers to prescribe Oxycontin. In the lead up to this hospitals even have fired employees for demanding PPE or wearing PPE properly but 'outside of protocol' (i.e., not explicitely in their COVID ward). How is it at all "too ridiculous" that hospitals would readily apply loose guidelines to diagnosing COVID when the suggestion they got from the CDC was just "If it looks like COVID diagnose it and we'll fund you for your exposure". It's not like they have a long and storied history of honesty.

>>11832081
So you just suggest it COULD happen without any actual evidence that it does occur. Got it.

>>11832079
>sweden
lol wtf are they doing

>>11832093
Okay, propose a method by which you get evidence that hospitals are falsely reporting cases

>>11832079
Nice thank you. The positivity rate map is exactly the kind of thing I've been looking for.
But, then, I can interpret this map in other ways than "USA sucks". For example, if in the bluer countries the people being tested are being tested randomly or as part of a contact tracing chain vs. in the US if it's symptomatic people or volunteers.
It's not because of undertesting though, if you look at How many tests are performed each day?, you will see that lately the US has been exceeding every other country in terms of per capita -- and if it exceeds every country in the EU on this measure then it also exceeds the EU
It's also slightly annoying that there is no map for absolute testing numbers, they always have to do per capita or per number of existing positive cases, which seems like a propagandistic decision but whatever, there's still lots of good data here.

>>11832096
You're the one making claims they are cooking the books for financial gain, so I think you have the burden of proof here mister.

>>11832097
>It's not because of undertesting though
It must be though, if many people are testing positive then you're not conducting enough tests, obviously. You're continuously catching up to the spread rather than being ahead of it.

>>11832059
>since these countries reported daily new cases in the last two days.

You realize that ALL the numbers are bullshit? Do you think there's a guy with an abacus adding up +1 every time they receive a positive test?
>N-no the whole system is automated by computers!
My fucking ass it is, all these numbers are merely projections of what it COULD be.

>>11832124
stfu retard

>>11832112
>Burden of proof
Get the fuck out of here.
Hospitals have the "burden of proof" to show that they're following protocol correctly, which they haven't shown and in many cases clearly violated (e.g., reporting people who show up with gunshot wounds as 'dying from COVID').
The evidence for the claim that they might/probably are lying is that they lie continuously, have a large incentive to lie, a very low barrier to lying, and have exhibited behavior that indicates a possible pattern of systemic lying in this situation.

>>11831118
You're not going the get an effective vaccine for a virus and you're not getting an overwhelmed healthcare system if you take care of the people that are at risk of developing complications from contracting the covid, this virus was around in october in Italy and likely to be all over the world in that date yet nothing was getting overwhelmed until the media started fear mongering massively each day and this happened only after some chink guy that disappeared told the world in later december that there was a new corona virus.

>>11832128
kill yourself retard you obviously know nothing.

>>11832120
>must be
>obviously
I don't share your certainty here. The point of testing isn't to control the spread, the point of testing is to be aware of it so we can make decisions.

>>11832128
He's right though. You should doubt official statistics in the best of times. In a brand new scientific situation where everybody is freaked out and there are crosscutting incentives all over you should be even more skeptical

>>11832151
>the point of testing is to be aware of it so we can make decisions.
The exact same applies, if positivity rates are very high that indicates there's a large chunk of cases that you're missing, and you cannot plan ahead when it comes to regional spread or even local spread.

>>11832153
/pol/ pls go

>>11832097
>the US has been exceeding every other country in terms of per capita
No, click on map view. The chart you posted does not include all countries. There are plenty of countries who test more than the US.

>>11832173
>It's /pol/acking to doubt statistics from organizations that might have a vested interest in presenting information a certain way
>Never in the history of the human race has ANY organization EVER modified the information they present to reinforce a point they wanted to make
Reddit pls go

>>11832131
Quite the conspiracy theory you have going. Obviously there will be misreporting and even deliberate fraudulent reporting for financial reasons. But what you are suggesting is a systemic large scale scam with no fucking evidence.

>>11832184
Just die in a fire already, you don't belong here

>>11832190
And THIS is why I call your "burden of proof" demand bullshit
>YOU have the burden of proof anon
>"Okay, here's some proof"
>Ha! That's just SITUATIONAL! Obviously it's not a SYSTEMIC problem
You don't want to have a discussion about whether the information coming out of hospitals is accurate. You want to poke and prod while contributing nothing real to the conversation so you can screenshot some conversation with the "Retarded 4channers who think all hospitals are full of conspirators" on reddit.
>There could be deliberate fraudulent reporting for financial reasons
>But obviously it's not a large scale scam
It doesn't have to be a fucking large scale scam. If 10% of COVID deaths are due to fraudulent reporting, that dramatically changes the numbers and approach of many states. Not to mention that there's no incentive for it to be "small". What, do you think fraudulent reporting happens because a nurse gets some corporate-patriotism idea in her head to label all deaths as COVID to defend her company? No. The only people with a vested interest in gaining money for the company are going to be shift managers and hospital board members, who may be directly or indirectly encouraging """"aggressive diagnoses"""" of COVID in low-level staff.

>>11832197
>It's /pol/acking to question news reporting that doesn't make sense!
>"Actually, it's not, there's many cases where officials have lied about numbers for the sake of political goals"
>I want you to die painfully for this insolence
If your reaction to reality is to wish death on the people exposing you to it, maybe YOU don't belong here.

>>11832207
it's fine to point out inaccuracies in reporting, but calling ALL numbers "bullshit", as if they're useless and they should be discarded altogether, then telling someone to kill themselves, disqualifies you for this board and cause to tell you to go die in a fucking fire, you stupid faggot

>>11832210
>Calling ALL numbers "bullshit"
I didn't
>Telling someone to kill themselves
I didn't
>Cause to tell you to go die in a fucking fire, you stupid faggot
>"Yes, appropriate behavior for this board is to make shit up about other people and use it to justify wishing death upon them"
Wow, I didn't know /sci/ was an acronym for "Shit-slinging Certified Imbeciles"

reporting of cases is always lower then actual cases, simply because not everybody is tested
reporting of corona deaths is pretty accurate in developed nations like the US, it's different in poor nations like e.g Indonesia, there is extreme under-reporting the actual number of cases because there are not enough tests and also extreme under-reporting for virus related deaths

>>11832183
You're right, US is in eighth place behind Luxembourg, Bahrain, Denmark, Singapore, Russia, Belarus, and Maldives. Most of these are tiny countries though where per-capita is not such a meaningful statistic, and I was mostly arguing against an earlier anon's point that the US is undertesting relative to the EU

>>11832168
But that positivity rate does give you information, you are drawing conclusions from it right now.

>>11832216
looks like I'm mixing you up with another person then

kinda your own fault, don't get mad if you jump into a shit storm and then get some shit on your shirt

>>11832220
>russia
>a tiny country
anon what are you saying

> I was mostly arguing against an earlier anon's point that the US is undertesting relative to the EU
makes sense, though positivity rates would be a lot more informative as to whether you're doing enough tests

>>11832231
>Most of these are tiny countries
>You're wrong because not all of them are tiny countries

>>11832239
well, I'm not invested in this argument, but if you're saying that the US is out-performing everyone in terms of number of tests, then one counter-example would show that you are wrong, wouldn't it

>>11832249
True true when I made that remark I was referring to the countries given in chart form, in actuality Russia is outperforming the US which is outperforming the EU.

>>11832261
>the US which is outperforming the EU
so long as you're not counting the smaller countries, but I'm not sure why you'd want to do that except to prove a point that is wrong

>>11832224
>assuming the identity of any anon is consistent ever
nah fuck off retard. Im not part of this shit flinging but youre a retard

>>11832305
What do you mean by that? The EU is outperforming the US because there is a member state in the EU that does? If there is a state in the US that outperformed Denmark, does that mean the US is on top after all?

>>11831826
Interesting post, gonna check out ur citation. Thanks for the info gamer

>>11832323
>fuck off retard
>you're a retard
>Im not part of this shit flinging
yes you are

>>11832337
it depends on how you define 'outperforming'

>>11832418
Yes the meaning of any sentence depends on how you define the words in that sentence, but is there a reasonable definition of 'outperforming' that would make the EU currently be outperforming the US in terms of amount of testing per capita?

>>11828387
>we

>>11832430
>is there a reasonable definition of 'outperforming' that would make the EU currently be outperforming the US
yes, if you take an actually relevant metric, like positivity rates of tests

it doesn't make sense to conduct 100k tests a minute of they're all going to be coming back negative anyway, whereas if 100% of your tests are coming back positive, you'de probably wanna ramp up testing.

>>11828109
black people

>>11832448
>it doesn't make sense to conduct
I don't know what you mean by this, there are loads of conducting materials

>>11832554
>to conduct
>verb
>verb: conduct; 3rd person present: conducts; past tense: conducted; past participle: conducted; gerund or present participle: conducting
>/kənˈdʌkt/
> 1.
> organize or carry out.
> "in the experiment he conducted a test"
pretty poor way to ignore the argument buddy

>>11832642
>pretty poor way to
Way to what anon?

>>11832554
>>11832642
As a conductor I disagree

>>11832690
pretty poor way to show you're a massive faggot

>>11832642
maybe they're just retarded and don't understand the meaning of the word, have some pit for the poor retard anon, he might be black. You don't want to be racist now do you goym?

>>11832719
How many ohms are you?

>>11828431
You are confusing EU with Europe.

Europe has +50 % more deaths but it also has +127 % more population compared to US.

Europe population: 747 million
EU population: 446 million
USA population: 328 million

EU population doesn't include many European countries as Russia or UK (since Brexit).

>>11832554
>>11832690
>>11832848
Settle down kids

Maga hatters

Florida again setting the standard for stupidity

>>11833150
do you mean haters?

>>11829049
>>11830912
yeah, just look at all these masks

>>11831162
White people hear about a guy who got shitfaced, waved an air rifle out of a hotel window, and couldn't stop reaching for his waistband after multiple warnings and think - "well, the cops definitely overreacted here and should be held partially accountable, but this guy was also a fucking retard"

Black people hear about a parole who got shitfaced, passed out in a drive-thru line, punched the cops who showed up, stole and fired a weapon at one of them and think - "HE'S A SAINT! DEFUND THE COPS NOW!"

>>11833452
The top 10% of black folks are able to function in society and do well for themselves. But they never lose their black identity so when something like the Wendy's shooting happens, they side with the black. It doesn't matter what the criminal did, if they're black, they side with them. It's crazy how little accountability there is in the black community.

>>11831005
to wait for a vaccine or some effective treatment, or simply to let infected people get pass the point of spreading or die, brainlet. and since it's difficult to know who is infected, you quarantine everyone for a few weeks and keep testing

>>11833324
No

>right-wing populists are shit leaders
Who knew

>>11828109
Americans culturally don't like being told what to do and most of the time it's beneficial. The same spirit of independence that makes us so preoccupied with our freedoms makes us resistant to national organization. 99% of the time it's a great thing and the 1% of the time when it's better to be a society of mindless sheep begging for their nanny state to take complete authoritarian control doesn't mean much.

>>11833588
>literally arguing hurr durr muh freedumz
I'd be laughing if it weren't so fucking tragic

>>11833588
What you are really saying is Americans are incapable of reason and logic.

>>11833540
US banned travel from China Jan 31... before Europe

Europe's response was to join the liberal states throwing a fit over the travel restrictions and accuse Trump of being a paranoid fascist. Then Italy went full-pandemic the following weeks and suddenly Europe was screaming "SHUT IT ALL DOWN! DAMMIT AMERICA - THIS IS ALL YOUR FAUL!"

>>11833540
This is your brain on plebbit
>>11833671
This is your brain on /pol/

>>11833671
Glad it all worked out for you. If you just stop testing now it will go away and not make Trump look bad!

>>11833631
>>11833642
Your mob rule is inherently submissive
That's great in a national crisis. Good for you.

>>11828170
>Conservatives sick of total lock-down affecting commerce, employment, and life in general.
>A few hundred people stage a handful of protests
>A couple black people in the act of committing felonies get killed by cops
>Millions take to the streets, riot and loot, burn down city centers every weeknight and weekend for a month
IT'S THOSE DAMNED CONSERVATIVES!!

>>11833844
Conservatives are literally in control of the federal government right now you dumb fuck

>>11833852
And what is it you want the federal government to do? Shut down the protests? Declare martial law? Keep everyone locked in their homes for the next month?

>>11833865
Just the conservatards protesting the lockdown, the rest have a legitimate excuse.

>>11833671
>US banned travel from China Jan 31... before Europe
And that's why America stayed free of Coronavirus.

>>11829584
Exactly, what's a few trillion of dollars in federal aid, a few million people unemployed, and a few thousand businesses bankrupted when weighed against the lives of thousands of 80-year-old nursing home patients??

>>11833852
Nancy Pelosi is a conservative?

>>11828500
>>11828520
>Murder by a power tripping asshole who feels entitled to end your life at will
>Is the same as catching a disease no one in the planet has control over
/pol/ idiots never dissappoint

>>11828344
States exploding in cases aren't a second wave. They are the first wave that was improperly contained.

>>11828387
>We
You mean the Whitehouse absolute total negligence and denialism made it worse for everyone around.

>>11828628
Not according to newesr studies.even simple breathing is a vector.

>>11828725
>>11828727
>Why yes, i am a useful idiot and just posted the dumbest strawman talking point

>>11830772
>>11830861
You seem like the kind of moron who puts pride over reality. I just hope it isn't your grandma or parents laying in their deathbeds for you to take the disease seriously.

>>11830899
What are you even on? NY is among the states that has its situation under control now. Keep in mind they went from an epicenter to a solid decrease and are the densest region in the entire U.S. If anything, their strict response is what allowed them to save even more lives.

Your real problem is that these were blue states you want to shit on and could care less what the actual reality is. Meanwhile, places like Arizona and Florida, who are careless with their containment do not get a peep from your '""irresponsibility"" analysis. Stop playing politics and states dominated by people like you may finally get their shit together.

>>11834209
based

>>11831432
>38,386
Yeah looks like I was way off and we'll have to wait a few more days

>>11834209
>bad thing IS THE LIBTARDS
find a new ad hom

>>11828351
Here's a rant for you. I transferred last year. This spring semester was my first 400 level class, igneous petrography. Its fucking microscope based and has 40 hours of lab work. I had to watch a TA on Zoom look at samples with a microscope in his bedroom. Worst 10 weeks of my life. I was also taking gen chem 3 and another geo class with a lab. Chem lab was just here's some data, make your plan and report. I would consider going half time and just take stuff like speech or writing. Anything with a lab you are NOT getting your money's worth. Depending on major of course.

>>11834153
Is Nancy Pelosi the commander in chief? Or are you saying that Trump can't even beat a women who has less power than he does?

>>11834031
>that pic
lol it didn't age well

>>11834839
>>11834031
thank god April saved US
just as King-ky Un promised
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?scale=linear&location=Brazil&location=India&location=Russia&location=US&location=United+Kingdom

>>11834845
I don't disagree with you or anything and this situation has been handled extremely poorly by the US government, but absolute numbers like this don't mean all that much without a per capita normalization. They're confounded by population number.

>>11833671
>"SHUT IT ALL DOWN! DAMMIT AMERICA - THIS IS ALL YOUR FAUL!"
lol that's retarded, not one in europe blamed the outbreak there on the US

also, europe threw a fit over closing the border with china because it was a retarded move sine the virus was already very much within the borders of the US, and this move wouldn't have changed that, yet give the impression that it would

>>11834865
what sticks out like a sore thumb is the situation dragging on and on and on and on and on and on

>>11832013
>the economics of 1918 were in general very different from the globalized service-based economics of 2020
Yes, but capitalistic principles remain largely the same, so supply and demand channels will likely respond similarly to NPIs

>>11834779
probably today anon

>>11831826
This post makes a lot of sense.

>>11835583
thanks

it's a surprisingly common logical mistake though, and people somewhat ironically blame the economic situation on the measures that actually prevent further economic collapse

>>11831826
>>11835583
Indeed. It will be interesting to see in this pandemic as well. US vs EU and Denmark/Norway vs. Sweden will be interesting to compare.

Patient zero, 1 infected person.
60% infection rate at contact with the skin.
He goes to work where he was working with 5 people, from whom he touched 4 people.

Now 3,4 people are in infected, who go home to there families.

Day two 3,4+there family members =10,54 people, who go to work or interact at different locations with random people, and touche at least 3 new persons. That means 18,9 people are infected. Who go home to there families.

Thats additional 17,7 in western culture with only 2 kids.

Day three 36,6 are now infected...

(oh they say it transfers trough droplets as well?)

>>11835598
isn't the cfr for covid-19 <1%, whereas spanish flu was 2-3% or something? seems like spanish flu was much worse than this

>>11833642

>>11835637
it was 60% as the who released it first but i guess you have to adjust the numbers if you want to justify an 6 month lock down.

>>11835647
I've read this sentence several times and I can't make sense of it. Are you a schizo?

>>11835637
Correct, but it's not actually the mortality of the disease itself that stops consumers from spending money, it's fear of contracting the disease knowing that it is potentially fatal.

>>11835655
ty 4 the question. yes i am. what you dont understand?

>>11835655
I read it as
"It was 60% as the WHO released it at first, but they probably fucked with numbers to justify a six month lockdown"

>>11835659
Why do we have a lockdown at all if people will voluntarily abstain from going to businesses?

>>11835674
most people, a least here in america, don't even believe the virus is real. I say let it run wild and kill all the rednecks

>>11835674
Because some people won't be deterred to go out to places of business where they can contract the disease, and others can still spread the disease without going to businesses but assembling otherwise.

>>11835679
>I say let it run wild
that's how you lose your parents and grand parents anon

>>11835690
my parents and grandparents refuse to take any precautions. i can't convince them to worry about it. there's not much more i can do than to try and talk to them about it

>>11835698
perhaps a start is not arguing that the best thing would be for the virus to run wild

>>11835706
Well the lockdown just convinced half the country that we overreacted, now everybody is going out drinking, going to the beach etc. and not giving a shit which is making it worse. People have to be somewhat affected by something before they can conceptualize the danger of it

>>11835679
>>11835659
You can't both be right

>>11835712
>Well the lockdown just convinced half the country that we overreacted
Yes, the well known paradox of prevention. In my view this is mostly a consequence of poor communication to the public by those in power, including politicians but also epidemiologists. Relating to the OP, it could have gone very differently, we need only look at how it went in Europe.

>>11835712
Everyone involved with the mask deception destroyed public trust and caused immeasurable damage. They should all be removed from their positions of authority. Instead they get to say "it was for your own good" and continue on lecturing random crap day after day even though they've completely destroyed the credibility of the entire medical community. Want people to believe anything they say? Stop using verified liars to say it.

>>11835716
True of you take the posts literally, but I don't think the other anon believes that literally MOST Americans think the virus is not real. At least you'd be hard pressed to argue those numbers, and my take of that post was simply that it was a hyperbole meant to illustrate a point, not to be taken literally.

>>11835731
The US government has shown itself to be hardly capable of handling any sort of crisis. Most state governments are run by political bureaucrats who don't have the skills that real leaders need. Bureaucratic rot has weakened us so much. Anybody who did 45 minutes of internet research could have put together a public information program, but they fucked it up so bad because the country is run by 60 year olds who can hardly use a computer

>>11835740
I won't argue with that, anon

>>11835739
no of course most people don't think that way, but many many people i've encountered literally believe it to be a hoax. it depends on where you're at. i'm in a rural area in the south so obviously these people aren't well adjusted

>>11835739
But they can't even both be right in theory. I'm very skeptical of the idea that most of the economic damage will be voluntary on the part of people not frequenting businesses as opposed to the government forbidding the businesses from operating at all.

>>11835754
it's fine to be skeptical and we can have a discussion, but then please post a scientific paper that negates the one that I've already posted

>>11835690
oh well, we'll still have their photographs

>>11835679
>kill all the rednecks
COVID19 is a disease of crowded overpopulation. Social distancing works well. Redneck are rural. Rural is social distanced by default. Rural people come together for short periods of time but spend most of their time at a good distance from each other. Urban people are on top of each other nonstop. This is what allows viruses like this to spread so well. The rednecks are going to be fine. They're not immune to the virus and even social distancing isn't 100% effective but the rural lifestyle is much more effective than any tissue paper mask cargo cult that goes on in densely populated urban area.
It's not the rednecks that are going to be decimated. It's the urbanites. The redneck way of life has been only minorly inconvenienced by all of this. The urbanite way of life has been completely turned upside down. Who can keep it up for the longest? Cities can't function long term this way. Rural areas can keep chugging along no problem.
Wish death on rednecks for not protecting you all from yourselves. If you want to save people, shutdown the subway systems. But you won't because that might be too inconvenient. Instead you demand the rest of the planet change to protect you from yourself.
The areas that grow food and have water will be fine. The hiveminded cities that rely on the government to do everything but wipe their butts? Y'all are going to end up paying most of the price for this. That's the way it should be for a disease of filthy overcrowded urbanism.

>>11835764
The paper you posted is arguing that the non-pharmaceutical interventions of school closure, public gathering bans, and quarantine/isolation of suspected cases (page 6) did not depress economic activity. I think this is a reasonable point. However, they are not discussing the NPI of requiring most businesses be closed down, or the quarantine/isolation of every person healthy or sick. It seems obvious to me that forcing businesses to close is going to have a larger economic impact than letting those businesses remain open while those businesses see a smaller amount of customers. Is that not obvious to you? Would you like me to explain my reasoning further?

>>11835787
>Is that not obvious to you?
It isn't, no. The main problem is that the most effective social distancing measure is to prevent mass gatherings altogether, and that would include closing off any place where people could conceivably gather. This wasn't done in 1918, though restrictions in businesses were in fact put in place, like staggered business hours.
>Would you like me to explain my reasoning further?
I'd prefer it if you would post an actual article so that we can go by empirical findings rather than logic that is inherently rooted in intuition rather than fact. But if you insist, then please go ahead. You'd have to do it quickly though, because we're at the bump limit.

>>11835825
I don't think we need to worry about time as the final non-bump-limited thread in the catalog was last posted in over fifteen hours ago.
As you say yourself, the NPI (non-pharmacutecal interventions) adopted in 1918 involved staggered business hours, not a complete business shutdown.
My reasoning is as follows. I agree with you that in a pandemic, the natural response of people is to go out less and purchase less. We know that the resulting amount of product-purchasing, relative the normal amount, will lie somewhere strictly between zero percent and one hundred percent. Your paper seems to estimate the amount of total economic activity as around 60% on average, pretty much the same for high-NPI and low-NPI cities. On the other hand, if a business is forced to not operate, it will see precisely 0% of product-purchasing and salary-paying relative to normal. I will make the naive assumption that a lower amount of product-purchasing and salary-paying will lead to greater economic damage than a less-low amount, and I combine this assumption with the mathematical observation that 0% is less than 60% to obtain the conclusion that a forced economic shutdown has a greater economic impact than that which would be caused by the pandemic itself.
I know this is all quite technical, but is there any flaw you see in my inherently intuitionistic logic?

>>11835890
>I know this is all quite technical, but is there any flaw you see in my inherently intuitionistic logic?
I just checked the math and 0% < 60% is indeed true. However, where your argument departs from the take-aways of the article that I posted is that what matters a great deal is spending following busyness restrictions. A place with little or no restriction will recover less from the pandemic, and hence spend more time at sub-par consumer spending. So to put it in your highly technical terms, 10*0% + 30*150% > 40 * 60%.

And aside from that, let's not forget that the global economy nowadays is quite heavily intertwined. A consequence of this is that due to reduced trade the economy will suffer greatly even if few restrictions are put in place on businesses, meaning that the economy as well as public health will suffer. An example of this would be Sweden, which put in place relatively few restrictions but is nevertheless looking at about a 6% GDP loss for the year (on par with Norway, Finland, and Denmark, all of which put restrictions in place) but at the same time also seeing large excess mortality. This equates to somewhat of a prisoner's dilemma, where if your neighbors are putting in place restrictions, then the best strategy is to do the same.

>>11835946
>A place with little or no restriction will recover less from the pandemic
Does your article contain this conclusion? In the graphs they give, the places with low-NPI end up having a (slightly) more healthy economy at the end compared to high-NPI, particularly in the retail and manufacturing sectors. Where are you getting the numbers 10, 30, 150, 40 from? Aside from that, it seems like your argument is that the economy will suffer anyway even if few restrictions are put in place, but this is not inconsistent with the prediction that the economy would suffer less.
Now where are you geting these stats on Scandinavia? In my abbreviated research it seems as if although Norway's GDP has fallen drastically, Sweden's GDP has actually risen very slightly
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-norway-economy/update-3-norway-economy-takes-huge-hit-from-coronavirus-outbreak-idUSL5N2CC1GO
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/29/coronavirus-swedens-gdp-actually-grew-in-the-first-quarter.html

>>11836000
>Does your article contain this conclusion?
Indeed it does, it's right there in the abstract:
>We find that cities that intervened (...) more aggressively (...) grow faster after the pandemic is over

>you getting the numbers 10, 30, 150, 40 from?
The same place you got 60%: I puled it directly from my asshole. They're only meant to illustrate the notion that faster recovery will result in less damages, as concluded by the article I posted.

>Now where are you geting these stats on Scandinavia?
It's somewhat ironic that now you're asking me for a source, when I've repeatedly been asking you to post articles that corroborate your logic. But for the sake of completeness, you're welcome to have a look here:
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Sweden
>Sweden estimated GDP drop 6.8%
>https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Norway
>Norway estimated GDP drop 6.3%
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Denmark
>Denmark estimated GDP drop 6.5%

>>11836000
>>11836037
anyways, it's been fun but I have to go, so no need to reply unless you want to

>>11836037
>The same place you got 60%: I puled it directly from my asshole.
Actually I got 60% from a visual average-value estimation of these graphs which are on Page 21 of the article you linked.
The two strings of characters beginning with "https" in the post you're responding to were meant to be sources indicating that Sweden did not suffer the same economic loss that Norway did. But you are right that the IMF is predicting that Sweden's economic losses will be even greater than Norway and Denmark. I wonder what the reason is for the discrepancy.
>>11836047
I have had fun talking to you as well, and thank you for informing me that replying to you is not mandatory, I was not sure whether this were the case

What does /sigh/ think of my fun box?
>>11828170
I'm still really suprised you can't say this apolitically, at least in the eyes of others. The reasons don't even matter, both sides congregaed en masse for whatever the fuck and spread this shit like mad.