/sci/ - Science & Math

0% or 100%

>>11694679
50%, he either does or he doesn't

>>11694689
It's only 100% true in 1% of cases, and since our imperfect perception is only 99% accurate, that leads to an adjusted figure of a 9% chance Musk will actually colonize Mars.

>>11694679

Quite low. There is simply no economic reason to be there. By the time we can send a person to Mars, robotics will have eliminated any reason to put a human there.

Why would you want to live on Mars, when Antarctica is practically the Garden of Eden by comparison?

>>11694689
average it then 50 50

>>11694700
this is bugmen talk. giga cringe

>>11694702
i dont understand this probability shit in specific macroscopic instances such as this. It's either going to happen (100%) or it isn't (0%)

What should the first city be named?
Elonia?
Olympus?
Rather momentous choice desu.

>>11694716
Sneedapolis.

>>11694679
Does the space industry make sense? by weight recycled space garbage in the space is worth more than silver and near gold.

Energy is pretty much free.

>>11694716

I heard it was going to be called Mars Base Alpha, but desu it’s not imaginative enough of a name for me.

>>11694679
100%. If SpaceX bottoms on money, which is doubtful due to the mad commercial shit they have developed, he can just ask for donations and probably get them.

>>11694679
about 15% and thats generous math -
money/time
technology

>>11694716
clearly the 1st city should be called Olympus or Haven with a wired line above the a so its pronounced heaven

>>11694709

Okay. I have some land on Mars I'd like to sell you.

0%

>>11694679
I was just going to make a thread about this. Also, do you guys like Musk? Is he the future of humanity or a cringe redditor?

>>11694700
Antarctica is still owned by treaties, Mars is ripe for some genuine frontier yee haw

>>11695139
heh, I've already personally claimed it for prospecting purposes, better luck next time

>>11694716
X Æ SR-71

>>11695157
Yes. We could use more billionaires like him, it seems they're insanely cowardly in comparison to him, as Musk's entire business scheme is throwing money at smart people who have been brewing these ideas for decades and telling them to figure it out.

>>11694679
Better question: what percentage of progress to colonizing Mars has Elon Musk accomplished in the past 10 years? If we can answer that, we can figure out how much more lifespan he needs to pull it off.

Colonies are set up with the intention of setting up a strategic outpost or a center for resource extraction and trade. There is no incentive for either on Mars, thus it will be a terribly uphill slog. We're talking $200B-$1T to get anything transported and built there in the first place, and then billions per year to maintain it. Elon is a joker who can't offer up a fraction of that.

>>11695173

>>11695241
They're aiming for 2022, manned 2024. Past 10 years, they've developed a viable launch vehicle to achieve it. So, 60% if we call the last hurdles the largest.

>>11695253
If they prove they can do it I'd be surprised if they wouldn't see global funding.

>>11694679
Given enough time, 99.999%. In any given timeframe, it depends.

>>11694679
How would property rights even work up there?

>>11695345
if they have a manned flight in 24 by 54 its possible aslong as it goes swimmingly
24 manned 26 or 28 several manned and basic materials small fabrications the 30s again many more small habbitats 40s it ramps for scale

>>11695455
well you are in complete denial if you dont think the big 3 already own it and many other nations will stake a claim as soon as somebody gets there

>>11695345
so you're assuming he's 60% done, even though his company has never launched a human into orbit? you are straight-up delusional

>>11695455
Unironically you'll have to implement communism up there

You're not going to waste precious seats on rocket ships on the donut squad mongoloids necessary to enforce property when it's more practical to just build a community based on trust and cooperation

>>11695490
you say that but when america is paying 10million per Space force personel member on a rocket russia is in a bidding war with them and so is china because elon has the only habbs and shuttles it will easily become exceptionally profitable for elon to enforce strategic asset management by majour superpowers on the red planet

>>11695499
whats on this years shuttle
4 americans 2 russians 2 chinesse 1 engineer
>wtf elon how could you do that
were sending 35 more shuttles next trip...

>>11694679
0% and everyone who thinks otherwise is delusional.

>>11694700
>simply no economic reason to be there

yes there is

>>11694695
Lmao

420% chance of smoking weed on mars in my lifetime

>>11694679
Are they planning to solve the gravity thing, or are they going to just see how it goes? What if people die after 10 yrs, kids have developmental issues etc?

>>11694679
i hope 100% but rationally i think its 0%. spacetravel is just to unpredictable and fragile. 1 mistake with a human on board and the companies over

>>11695485
If they can bring cargo into orbit they can throw a Yuri up there in a can. Wouldn't really serve any purpose but they could.

>>11695766
>If they can bring cargo into orbit they can throw a Yuri up there in a can
that's a massive oversimplification of what it takes to keep people in space for months at a time. what do you do if someone needs medical care on a journey where you can't go home for a year?

>>11695485
less than a week

>>11695159
>Mars is ripe for some genuine frontier yee haw
The entire solar system is going to be like the wild west x 1000 because it's going to be even harder to police and govern due to the scale.

>>11694700
The long term economic impact of colonizing mars is to open up the outer solar system to human exploration and settlement over the next several hundred years. This will be vital for building a solar civilization which will one day discover and invent the technology for traveling to other stars in our constellation, and eventually the galaxy.
Robotics could work on the moon quite well, but martian robotics are more difficult to control due to a large time lag. Human boots on the ground are needed to industrialize mars.

>>11694716
Bogdangrad

>>11694679
0%. Even he admitted it is unlikely, which is why he has been having his midlife crisis on twitter recently.

>>11694679
>So what are the chances of Elon musk achieving his dreams of finally colonizing mars?

50% but not for at least 2 decades. Colonizing the moon is FAR easier and lucrative.

>>11694679
Mars is a dead, irradiated world with very little to offer. We're not going to colonize it any time soon.

>>11694679
0%.

>>11696291
Where's my O'Neill cylinder?

>>11696013
hope for the sake of those poor unfortunate bastards that the launch doesn't go belly-up like so many other SpaceX launches

>>11696315
>like so many other SpaceX launches
Since June 2010, rockets from the Falcon 9 family have been launched 87 times, with 85 full mission successes, one partial failure and one total loss of spacecraft.

>>11694692
there are 10 marbles in a bucket, 1 green 9 red. there's a 50% chance you pick the green one; you either do or you don't

>>11694716
Something like Outpost or Reach would be cool

>>11696326
sounds like pretty good odds then. still wouldn't take them tho

>>11695971
put food and medkits in the cargo lole and a nurse robot waifu to tend to their wounds and fall in love like a space opera

>>11694711
>i dont understand this probability shit
Indeed.

>>11695619
>yes there is
No there isn't.

>>11696353
>there are 10 marbles in a bucket, 1 green 9 red. there's a 50% chance you pick the green one; you either do or you don't

So if someone bet you $50 on the outcome, you'd be perfectly happy betting on green?

>>11696037
>The entire solar system is going to be like the wild west x 1000 because it's going to be even harder to police and govern due to the scale.

In your dreams! In the wild west it was easy to disappear into the hills and live off of whatever you found for months at a time. And since photos and communications were sparse, it was easy to take a new name, move to a new town, and not be recognized. Space travelers will be hopelessly dependent on resources and products manufactured on Earth. Every drop you drink and breath you breathe will need to be meticulously measured and replenished.

It will be more like living on a submarine than like the wild west. Neo-cons will not survive in space. They will get thrown our the airlock the moment they start talking about their right to breathe free.

>>11695253
That's some insane numbers you've pulled out of your ass.
Starship launch costs to LEO are projected at $2M, even at 10x that amount it's chump change.

>>11696449
>projected

>>11696449
but LEO isn't the problem or the cost?

>>11694716
Jamestown

>>11696383
this is unironically what the elon musk fanbase thinks space travel logistics will be like

>>11694689
Based

>>11696037
Yes its the colonies all over again. Are you ready to stick it to the red coats one more time?

>>11694716
Snickers

>>11694709
le wannabe Mars colonist is the ur-bugman

>>11694679
99% given enough time and lack of civilisation ending solar flare + technological singularity making colonisation an outdated concept. Otherwise the nigger will keep getting government funding due to popularity until he gets there through incremental improvement if nothing else.

>>11694679
Putting human on Mars: 95%
Colonizing Mars in Musk's lifetime: 10%

>>11696041
And what makes you think you can get anyone to commit to a 500+ years long investment when we can't even stop destroying Earth while chasing short term ones?

>industrialize mars
What is there?

Btw I sill think it can happen but we'll be long long dead by then.

>>11694679
scientifically speaking, 0%

>>11695527
It all depends about what one means by colonizing and in how much time.
A typical mistake amateur scientists often do is go on talking a lot about ill defined topics.

>>11695971
A medic, some equipment, a lot of tests and vaccines before going and then cross your finger.
That's really all you can do.
The bright side is there are no virus to care about.

How will colonization of the moon and mars be, thinking of how to split up land between countries?
Will it be first come first serve?
Imagine the wars that could happen 100-200 years from now, when the first colonies have been made by murica and china, but then russia drops by with guns and astronaut soldiers to take over.

>>11694700
>By the time we can send a person to Mars, robotics will have eliminated any reason to put a human there.

"Putting a human there" is a reason by itself. Cannot do that with robots only, by definition.

Maybe not a colony, but there will be a manned base.

>>11695971
You questioned
>even though his company has never launched a human into orbit?
This we know they can do.
>what it takes to keep people in space for months at a time
This is what they're working on.

>can't go home for a year?
Good odds this won't be a two-way trip anyway. Whoever is getting launched to Mars will probably die there.

>>11694679
0% in his lifetime

>>11694716
new new york

>>11697022
if they wanted to save money they'd launch woman pregnant with a male and female set of twins.

>>11697070
Or two very small asians.

>>11696353
>>11696383
>Being this new

Musk can easily (if hes not chained by some retarded law / dies very soon) put a man on Mars, actual colonization is another thing though which really depends on how big of a fire he will light up in worlds governments

The biggest problem is Musk has no equipment for Mars.

>but he has rocket
>but he solar panels
>but he has batteries
>but he has tunnel bore (that is a stretch, but say he does)

He does not have a HAB (inb4: live in rocket...lol)

He has no means to make oxygen, to find water, to drill, pump, store, heat water. He has no factory designed to make fuel. Also it is cold, so batteries he does have will not work without being heated. No means of making food. No means of making concrete. He has nothing.

So Musk will get to Mars, but right now he has an empty rocket!

>>11694679
with the upcoming economic deppression: 0.0001%

>>11696037
It's gonna be based as fuck, we'll have space pirates and shit.

>>11698228
I would like to add that I want to do this. I want him to get our asses to mars.
But the development time for all the equipment to live and work there is going to be longer than Starship.

>>11694716
Musktown

>>11695220
They're cowardly because they're either people who sacrificed themselves to the stock market or are jews.

>>11695490
Your wet commie dreams are the further from a society running on trust. Now national socialism? That's the ticket.

>>11698267
*furthest, fuck

>>11698228
The development of Starship will make NASA and other administrations begrudgingly work on life support systems and so forth, because they don't have the excuse of "space is hard".

>>11698274
>will make NASA and other administrations begrudgingly work on life support systems and so forth
How long did it take some to launch a telescope? How long will it take for a massive redundant life support system that has to work from Earth to Mars, to say nothing of being on Mars for a decade with little maintenance.

>>11698289
Musk even talked about the life support system of just the trip is going to be hard. Closest comparison is the ISS which supports like 10 people max, 4 normally and it is so inefficient it requires constant deliveries of water and substrate.

>>11694679
That really depends if France finish ITER there so called fusion reactor (shield generator)
Or if musk finish his so called communications system (30 Megatons Energy-ray-beam weapon)

>>11696992
still a huge oversimplification. how do you:
-generate oxygen for the entire trip without something breaking or needing replacement?
-recycle water for the entire trip without something breaking or needing replacement?
-shield shield astronauts from the huge amounts of ionizing radiation?

>>11694679
Does anybody know anything about the mineral wealth of mars. It’s one thing to have an outpost there but does the planet have the resources for a full blown civilization without constantly needing manufactured goods from earth? Also why is Elon so obsessed with mars rather than the massive and easy to get to mineral wealth of the asteroid belt?

>>11696406
>fuck you I wanna go there!
As has happened before, will happen again, ad Infinitum. Many people have attempted to stop human attempts at exploration and colonization, they have all failed. The logic of “its not economical” doesn’t hold up against humanity because humans are not logical creatures, but are prone to subjective emotions regardless of how logical it is.
You forget that early American colonization wasn’t economical either, but we still went there

>>11698342
>-shield shield astronauts from the huge amounts of ionizing radiation?
Got an easy fix for this one. Don't.
Several times more likely to get cancer but they got a hundred other things that will kill them before that.

>>11695157
I like what he does but he’s a shitty human bean

>>11696353
yes correct, your point?
>>11697876
>being this new
>implying anon is wrong
Anon...

>>11694679
0%. Cosmic rays will render any human crew so brain damaged they'd be useless even if the managed to land, and it will most certainly sterilize them as well. If there's been progress in shielding materials, let me know. I was hearing about some hydrogen something or other.

>>11696406
>It will be more like living on a submarine than like the wild west
It would be like Age of Discovery explorers going through the Amazon, or industrial empires going through Africa, but much harder

>>11695159
>Antarctica is still owned by treaties
Brainlet. My expedition is already half-way there. We're colonizing this place, permanently, and if you don't like it you can kiss lead. It's mine for the taking.

if he colonizes mars, what will be the half-life of the colonists when the lack of proper radiation protection means they inevitably get turbocancer?

>>11696449
$2M per what? entire launch?
besides, starship will never fly.

>>11694700
>By the time we can send a person to Mars, robotics will have eliminated any reason to put a human there.
That was the conventional wisdom since 1970s. It hasn't happened.

>>11698342
We were talking specifically about medical emergencies.
About other topics, we have actually a lot of experience about long term usage of water and oxygen because of the ISS.
We can give precise estimates on failure ratings and how much redundancy and reserves are desirable.
We still don't have direct knowledge about long term exposure to cosmic radiations (apollo missions were too brief) but we have some models deemed to be accurate enough.
We can estimate how much shielding we need and shields aren't really prone to malfunctions.
All of that is why a permanent base on the moon would be beneficial also thinking about mars missions.

>>11699411
> starship will never fly
You can keep telling yourself that every single day, but that won't change anything. It will fly.

>>11697000
This 100% is going to happen Anon. Get ready for the great Moon War.

>>11694716
niggerville

Y'all realise that all the secondary problems y'all talk about like radiation will be solved in time right?
The first guys going on Mars know full well they might die from turbo cancer and won't give a shit (I know I won't) because they're contributing to something far greater than themselves and the sacrifice is worth it.
Or are all of you just pussy effeminate men that prefer chemical rockets over nuclear propulsion?

>>11698260
beware the fury of the blue checkmarks

>>11698260
But Jews own 96% of media. Why aren't you allowed to discuss this?

>>11699995
>>11700002
jews will make sure we dont get to mars because of musk's comment
and even if we do get to mars, they will try and come once the colony is established and will make banks/loans to low iq martians to get some interplanetary profit.
Hopefully Elon bans them from Mars forever.

>>11698228
Live in rocket lol

>>11694679
Much lower, like 2-8%. Note, I didn't give him 0 or 1 to start. He definitely has the drive to at least ensure he has something on Mars. Humans, rovers, or maybe just satellites. Any space mission I find intriguing within itself. And quite impressive to watch it go from small box, to being built, to being encased, and then finally see things start getting into orbit. SpaceX also does a good PR job. It's not the same as Tesla, that's for sure haha.

>>11694679
0

>>11696406
>>So if someone bet you $50 on the outcome, you'd be perfectly happy betting on green?
No because it's a 50% chance I'll lose my 50 dollars.

>>11695173
> Musk knows more than you and me
> Musk is aware of alien contacts
> Musk is naming his child that so he fits in with future alien overlords

>>11699372
timestamp with penguins or gtfo

>>11694700
This. When technology is adequate to establish a self-sustaining colony on Antarctica, then it might be time to consider how one transfers the necessary cargo-shipload-tonnage of starter gear from Earth's surface to that of Mars, and how the staggering energy required to even build the infrastructure for that part of the plan is to be produced. Until such time, any such plans are lies projected to pump up their projectors' popularity among the delusional.
>>11696291
Bezos also knows perfectly well it's not going to happen before he turns 300, though it is possible he's delusional enough to believe that's going to happen too.

>>11694700
it's going to be a race to claim the land on mars.

>>11694679

10%

Mars is inhospitable as fuck.

>>11699351
bullshit, cosmic ray dose is around 0.3 mSv one way, not high enough to do any serious harm except for barely statistically detectable rise in cancer rate

Seething haters

>>11694679
Yes, we'll successfully colonise a planet that
>has thin poisonous atmosphere
>has weaker gravity than earth
>has below freezing temperatures year round
>is fully exposed to solar radiation
>is too far away from Earth to receive aid during a crisis

>>11695159
>Mars is ripe for some genuine frontier yee haw
Tragically the Chinese expedition perished in a mysterious failure during landing...

>>11695455
>How would property rights even work up there?
Frontier style: you stake a claim, you work the entire are for 2 years and then you own it. The EU, always late to the party, will complain. They will just not get there.

>>11700391
yes
>>11700460
so many NEET incels will be up for it, I can tell you I'd give my life for a litlle piece of land on Mars

>>11700391
Yes

>>11700391
Isn't it amazing how adaptable the human species is when placed in a hostile environment?

>>11700460
>The EU, always late to the party, will complain.
I'd sell out the EU for a chance to die on Mars unironically.

>>11700539
i'd sell out the EU for a mars bar desu

Superforecasters say they have a 38% chance of landing on Mars by 2030

Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/

>>11695253
REE are in reality not rare but the extraction and refinery process is horrific and environmentally damaging. It sure has taken its toll in China.
On Mars this is of course not an issue at all.

>>11699909
*test rig collapses for the nth time*

>>11700926
>So I built a second one. And that one crumpled into a can. So I built a third. That exploded, fell over, and then crumpled into a can. But the fourth one stayed up!

Mars is low test, we need to go to mercury and turn it into a factory.
>mantle packed with metal for easy mining
>planet is smaller than mars but has same gravity from all the metal
>god tier solar power
>craters in permanent shade near the poles
>water ice in said craters as well

>>11700926
So what? The latest one hasn't im/exploded yet. That's how they do things, iterating fast and blowing shit up in the process. Name one rocket that you've seen being built 24/7. You seriously think other space companies have no failures?

>>11701198
*test rig collapses for the n+1th time*

>>11694700
New frontiers man. I'm trash on earth, but I can own some stuff on Mars.

Why do people live in Siberia? Why does Rice play Texas?

>>11696326
The shuttle had more failures plus if the rocket dies fail the LAS is proven to work

>>11701283
>test rig collapses
bad b8, seriously, go back to the degenerates on reddit, they'll love you

>>11701002
brainlet here how the fuck can something be so close to the sun yet have ice on it

>>11694679
0%

>>11699881
>About other topics, we have actually a lot of experience about long term usage of water and oxygen because of the ISS.
we have a lot of experience in running these systems on a mission where regular outside shipments and maintenance are possible

>>11701518
In the poles craters, the sun never shines there and since there is no atmosphere it's actually very cold.
Same as the moon (supposedly).

>>11701582
It doesn't matter, the information we can infer from that is still the same.

>>11696037
Good, fuck the NFA, rail guns, full autos, with no commies, kikes, non-whites, with blackjack and hookers!

>>11696406
>Neo-cons will not survive in space. They will get thrown our the airlock the moment they start talking about their right to breathe free.


Anyone else get an erection reading that?

>>11694679
>moves to mars
>dies of radiation after four months

>>11694679
3% but also 19%

>>11694716
"Dion", if it's anywhere near Olympus Mons.

>>11694716
it's going to be named something lame, like "unity" or "harmony"

>>11694716
Ligma

>>11694716
Marsport is the traditional name, from back in the day when science fiction stories were set in the various planets of the Solar System.

>>11694716
Sugma

>>11694716
Baner

>>11694716
Starship Landing

Reminder that Communism doesn't work and anyone attempting to create it will be spaced.

>>11694679
10% I hate to break it too you fags but the human race is gonna die on earth.

>>11702352
Non Americans, maybe.

>>11700633
>38% chance
Cope Marscel.

>>11696037
Damn that will be based

Mars isn't that appealing when you realize that it's just a dead rock. Once you go to Mars, you will never be able to go outside and breathe fresh air ever again. You will never be able to have a realtime conversation with people you left back on Earth. There will be nothing explore but dust and rocks. There are no resources, so you will always live in scarcity and your only hope is that Earth keeps feeding you hand-to-mouth. It might be viable as a penal colony, though.

>>11703130
it'll be fine

>>11694679
>So what are the chances of Elon musk achieving his dreams of finally colonizing mars? 50%? 70%? 90%?
Considering that people can't go a few weeks without getting a haircut or going shopping, zero.

Exactly 0 percent. Colonization of Mars will not take place in our lifetime and it is extremely likely it will never take place

>>11703215
us regular shut-ins are mostly fine, I'm just annoyed because I haven't had a haircut in 5 months, if I knew this would happen I would have just cut it shorter beforehand

>>11694716
>What should the first city be named?

New New York

>>11698228
>No means of making concrete.
What is concrete a requirement for?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthbag_construction

>>11696296
Fun to imagine that Bezos has a higher chance of building a working O'Neill cylinder in earth orbit than Musk has of building a city on mars

>>11703266
>not cutting your own hair
Do you even shut-in, bro?

>>11694716

Pick a name out of the culture series that sounds the most appropriate. It's the most likely outcome.

>>11703608
I need someone else to use the scissors

>>11703130
>you will never be able to go outside and breathe fresh air ever again. You will never be able to have a realtime conversation with people
thankfully there is an entire generation of people who have prepared their whole lives for this reality

>>11698228

That's why he's working with others at Spacex to build Starlink. A network of just 1600 satellites can generate $720M annually, run that out to 4 years, and that's $2.88Bn. If you assume that $1Bn of that will go to upkeep, services, and materials (launches/replacements), that's $1.88Bn in profit over 4 years that can be reinvested back into SpaceX in pursuit of other technologies material TO Mars habitation and ISRU.

For context, the 720M figure is derived via 1 million subscribers paying $60/mo (or equivalent of) for 12 months for a 50/50 or 100/100 offering anywhere in the world.

SpaceX wants to build the transport framework, but are recognizing the cold hard reality that much of the planet was perfectly content taking another 100 years to get to Mars despite probably not having the window of opportunity to actually do that. So they're building the revenue streams necessary to generate money so that they no longer have to raise money and issue shares for that. A privately owned company that can generate 1.88Bn in cash without issuing a single share of stock to the market is unprecedented. That number scales linearly for every 1600 satellites added to the network.

1600 = 1.88Bn/4 years that can be reinvested into SpaceX for buildign the HAB, oxygenerator, water reclaimer, fuel production systems, material extraction and refinement systems, etc.

3200 = 3.76Bn/4 years or 940M/year in pure R&D budget

4800 = 7.52Bn/4 years or 1.88Bn/year in pure R&D budget

9600 = 15.04Bn/4 years << this is the entire operating budget of SLS over 11 years | or 3.76Bn/year in pure R&D budget

11,200 = 30.08Bn/4 years or 7.52Bn/year in pure R&D budget

SpaceX has requested to the FCC for a permit to launch 40,000 satellites to cover the entire planet and serve internet to the world. It'll have taken them ~2 years to get to 1600 with F9. Each SS will allow them to launch 400 sats, so 4 launches = 1600 network. Assuming 25 SS launch/year = 10,000 sats = 25% by end of 2022

>>11703130

Bruh, Mars has 38 liters of water per 1 cubic meter of soil trapped in it. It has massive ice-caps. There's been confirmed brine flows on the surface, which means there are likely massive subsurface aquifers filled with highly concentrated brine, which can be purified to get water, salts, and other minerals. The Martian mountains have CO2 and O2 trapped in the rock. A billion years ago, Mars had water; lakes and oceans. The probability of life on Mars at one point is significant, which means it's worth exploring to see if we can fossilized remains of life--if we do, it will change the course of humanity forever, knowing that life once existed elsewhere within our solar system would lay to rest that we're not truly alone in the universe.

And who knows, maybe our solar system will be like many MANY a sci-fi stories with buried lost civs somewhere in Mars, that jump starts our civilization forward. There's many reasons to go settle mars, aliums being one of the possibilities.

>>11695253
Europeans colonized most of the globe in terms of surface for no immediate purpose. it was all about the power struggle.
Do you think the french had any plan for "ressource extraction" and "trade" when they claimed Canada and first settled in 1534? It came centuries later.

The main reason Mars hasn't be colonized yet imo is that since the collapse of the USSR the USA have got not real competition to push such effort.

>>11694679
Someone explain why colonizing mars is BETTER than colonizing the moon.
The moon is very close and always accessible so emergencies are easier to handle, it has HUGE mineral reserves and lots of water available.
I am confused as to WHY you want colonize mars until AFTER the moon is colonized.

>>11703813
Because Moon has neither intrinsic magnetic field nor an athmosphere. It's also covered in extremely carcinogenic fine dust. Might as well rename it Cancerland.

>>11696041

We don't need Mars for that. We need stations in asteroid belt. And before that strong Moon and Earth orbit presence.

What exactly do we gain from Mars? Asteroid belt has everything Mars has and more. Way more.

Why terraform Mars when 3/4 of Earth has very little human presence? Earth could fit 5x more people than it does today easily.

I'm all for Mars bases for scientific stuff. But beyond that?

>>11703813
distance is literally the only advantage over mars, as well as having a permanent far side for astronomy purposes. The red planet is better in all other ways

>>11703813
You do both, moonbase is pretty much a requirement for a working mars colonization. You can't terraform moon but you can terraform mars which is the big reason to go there.

>>11703813
Moon lacks volatile elements such as carbon or nitrogen. It is also depleted in hydrogen, tough there may be some water ice in permanently shadowed craters.

I bet Starship will be thoroughly tried out with manned lunar landings before sending people to Mars, tough.

>>11694679
9 percent, and about to be bumped up to 18 percent.

>>11694716
Tharsis.

>>11703664
Though it's nice to fantasize about the numbers, the likelihood of this happening is very low. You think the rest of the ISP industry is just gonna sit and watch while they lose market share? All this means is more internet access around the globe, something I'm sure Alphabet is pretty happy about

>>11694716
Muskopolis

And when Elon dies, his AI construct will be called Omnissiah.

>>11700590
Now that is what I call an excellent deal. EUxit to the max.

>>11701326
>The shuttle had more failures
Private companies probably took Feynman's Appendix X to heart.

>>11702352
The meek shall inherit the Earth. The rest of us shall go to the stars.

>>11703627
Just shave it all.

>>11695148
>>
/thread

I can see him succeeding at starting a base, but real city is a dream that won't happen for centuries. There is just no economic drive for it.

>>11701592
Musk is not 60% of the way to going to Mars

>>11704853

He's not even 60% of going to the Moon.

>>11704909
Mainly because he is not heading in that direction.

>>11704958
Actually Musk is planning to make an unmanned moon trip in 2021.

>>11694679
0%. There's no way he can deal with all the hell portals.

>>11703650
Will Marsposters be banned? Or limited to a containment board?

>>11694758
maybe not now but in 500 years itll sound dope when every other name is boring. imagine living in a town named "earth base alpha" that would be kind cool

>>11694716
Eden.

>>11695159
>antarctica is owned by treaties
just wait til the russians find oil

>>11695157
Elon Musk is an incredibly shitty human being, but SpaceX is probably the only reason space exploration is in the position it's in right now

>>11694700
>>11694679
>>11695253
All of you faggots seem to miss one thing STARLINK, that alone will pay for the colony. Elon musk is set on building it which takes care of the need for it, once its there economics will follow. Right now satellite contracts, nasa missions and dear moon are paying for the r&d but soon starlink will be a Goliath. I'd say there is a 75% chance it actually happens although in my mind its closer to around 90%

>>11694716
solringen

>>11704572
its already becoming a military asset, the isps are fucked. Its already too late for them to fight it.

>>11695157
He is pushing us to the future and entirely devoted to his goal. I also think that he is a good human being. no doubt without him nasa would just be a legal embezzlement program. We wouldn't be here and we wouldn't be going to mars without him

>>11694679
In his lifetime? Dwindling, closer to 0%. On a long enough time line? 100%. It's completely doable.
His problem may be too that he's trying to build NYC circa 1950 rather than 1650

>>11705832
2nd this

>>11694716
Wapan.

>>11703130
>you will never be able to go outside and breathe fresh air ever again
With micro fusion power you will generate fresh air in your space suit on demand, and walk wherever you want on Mars.

>>11694679
it'll eventually happen, wont be him doing it though. But we are slowly working up to going to mars. I mean there's "Space Force" now so normies are getting interested and motivated in space

>>11694700
why do you need an economic reason? why do you even need money to accomplish goals in the first place? money isn't a real thing, it's not even natural.

>>11694679
90%

>>11694700
>There is simply no economic reason to be there.
Very onions comment. We don't even know what's on Mars, afaik, and it's not a nature reserve like 'tarcti.

>>11694700
Think of the tourism value alone, then add the ability to claim land, and mining whatever we find there. Then the scientific value, which should be able to get funding. Robots aren't on the level of human personnel for versatility in tasks.

>>11695139
I would happily buy Martian land if I could be assured that it wouldn't be seized without compensation. I'd probably buy it anyway if the price was low enough.

>>11706498
One neat stuff about mars is that since it's basically lifeless, it can be a fantastic playground since we don't risk destroying interetsing ecosystem.

>>11694730
The most based choice for the place that will seed humanity's presence on other worlds and feed its colonisation.

Either that or "Fapple".

>>11699982
Also solid.

Wenis would be good.

>>11694758
I guessed it would be Alpha Colony.

>>11694957
Yeah, he's proved it at this point.

>>11694998
See you in 10 years when it's been inhabited for some time.

>>11696037
My body is ready.

>>11695157
Future of humanity. He's un-reddit in most everything he does. He's the best of 4chan's spirit without spitefulness.

>>11705746
>incredibly shitty human being,
How so?

>>11695253
>There is no incentive for either on Mars
Have you people noticed how hype the threads get when Mars is on the table? Don't you get misty-eyed or cry watching space exploration?
Money isn't everything. People are motivated by more than money.

>>11695455
I guess we'll find out. I'd guess it will operate via a combination of interplanetary treaties, frontier rules where use of the land means ownership, and claims by states and corporations.
It could be a real scramble.

>>11695499
God I like being alive in a time where we're discussing this. Feel good folks.

>>11695527
t. Person who thought finding a Westward route to the Indies was impossible.

>>11695656
That just makes it more based.

>>11695971
Is this sour grapes or something? Yes, exploration and discovery are risky. People will die. Who cares?
Science isn't for shook ones.

>>11700002
Something Holocaust.

>>11700009
I imagine that would work out very badly for them.
If Jews started hurting doggos or preventing spacetravelerino over ethnocentrism that could cause level 5 Hadrionics.

>>11700391
Yes. We do it because it's hard.
Risking for great things is the dream that beats inside all men.

>>11701002
wtf the mean temperatures of the surface vary from -73.15 to 66.85 degrees celcius
Do you know what the conditions are like in the place with the most suitable temperaure for humans and the lowest amount of temperature variation?

>>11701585
So you're saying we should live at an appropriate amount under the surface, or dig our own crater-domes?

>>11703130
>There will be nothing explore but dust and rocks.
They're exciting rocks.

Imagine being the first person ever to walk down a canyon?

>>11703215
Imagine being such a normie that you can't cope with months of isolation at a time.
Either that or we could send people who've been in solitary.

>>11703813
It's cooler.

>>11704572
Who dares wins.

>replying to more than two people in a post

>>11695159
mars is also under treaties you dum dum, everything in space is

>>11706577
>Imagine being the first person ever to walk down a canyon?
Sounds real fucking boring.

>>11706641
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0dRAdjsvTE

>>11695157
He's both

Interpret that as you will

>>11696353
wrong. there is a 9% chance of red and 1% chance of green. not 50 50 there would have to be 50 of each for that to be true.

>>11694716
I have no idea what it will be called but I hope it has either Poopoo or Weewee in the name. E.g: Poopootown or Weeweeville.

>>11694716
VON BRAUN CITY

>>11694679
It's a farce to get other countries to invest money into a nothing burger.

>>11705889
>dwindling
Based on what*?

>>11706565
>>incredibly shitty human being,
>How so?
Diamond mines, unethical labor, etc etc whatever

>>11706594
Outer space treaty is league of nations tier trash, totally outdated and useless, whilst antarctic treaties still hold pretty well

>>11706980
what do you mean, we just threw trillions at one

>>11707765
sounds based desu

>>11694679
0%, he is a hack. He is just playing with shiny metals. Inbred people aren't capable of accomplishing real shit

What job is this?

>>11704200
According to KAGUYA measurements, there's far more carbon emitting from the moon than previously believed. Far more than can be accounted for from solar wind and micrometeorites.

>>11708116
Playtester of Kerbal Space Program: Human DLC.

>>11708116
Video editing, just like Hollywood

>>11698740
Colonization of the New World was very, very economical.

>>11708477
So will this, Musk is starting the colony artificially and NASA and the military are interested in it. Musk will make it happen and once people are there the economics will follow.

>>11708113
>he says days before spacex launches nasa astronauts to the ISS

>>11696037
Outlaw Star here we come.

>>11708113
>T- 2 days to launching astronauts to the ISS

>>11708113
maybe you should sue your mother and brother then

>>11694716
Alexandria

>>11694679
100%

>>11694700
You sound like my boomer old space professor

Get bent faggot, sorry you were to shitty of a engineer to build something great for once. Why dont you spend the next 5 years building a 1U cubesat to studying some bullshit concept in LEO you hack.

>>11709995
lmao

>>11703215
>>11703266
>>11703608
>>11703627
>Not having your live-in gf cut it for you
ishygddt

>>11694679
When there are people walking around on Mars people on this board will be saying a colony is impossible.

>>11710030
hey whatever anon

>>11696460
>>11696748
>>11697024
>>11701816
>>11702309
>>11703018
>>11704909
>>11705731
>>11705904
these nine posts absolutely nailed it. beam me up, scotty!

>>11694679
100%

>>11694700
Because niggers and shitskins can still cross the ocean on boats to come and immigrate to your Antarctic paradise after they've overrun and destroyed the rest of the civilized world, whereas they're going to have a much, much, much, much harder time trying to "enrich" your Mars colony.

https://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020

52 days!

>>11710195
Too bad pc people will want to send them anyway

mars looks like target practice by meteors

>>11710207
Also departing in July 2020 the Chinese Martian rover and orbiter, tianwen-1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdj8-XSOAg8

>>11710195
This. 200 million kilometers of hard vacuum is the best immigration policy.

>>11696728
>Implying it wouldn't be the marscoats (orangecoats?) sticking it to you
t. red coat

90%

>>11695490
Ah yes, those famous communist nations that didn't require police forces, like the USSR or China.

>>11703130
>There are no resources
Damn, real messed up of gravity to Mars so dirty like that.

>>11703594
Does he, though? A Mars city can be shipped from Earth. An O'Neill cylinder has to be built in orbit. Which means, practically, for it to be built you need a lunar colony. So it's basically a Martian colony but closer with the added step of robust off-planet industry and orbital assembly.

>>11710195
Those people only emigrate because your societies welcome them and facilitate their arrival, the exact same thing will happen on Mars or anywhere else you try to flee basic social discrepancies.

>>11694716
New Babylon

>>11710195
There'll be a mandatory negro quota.

>>11696406
>It will be more like living on a submarine than like the wild west
once the tech is developed to survive in space there's nothing stopping you from getting a bunch of sister wives and flying your enviro-ship to the oort cloud to start your incest empire without the faggy earthians trying to stop you. Even if they discover your plan you just have to cheap going and the niggers wont catch you unless they have a faster ship and I doubt they want to end up half a lifetime away from family/friends.

Recent Paul Wooster of SpaceX presentation slides about Mars missions/outpost stuff:

https://sma.nasa.gov/docs/default-source/sma-disciplines-and-programs/planetary-protection/starship_cospar_2020-05-20.pdf?sfvrsn=18fec5f8_0

>>11698260
>you will be astonished at how he recoils, how injured he is, how he suddenly shrinks back: “I've been found out.”.

mars colony is a joke, what incentive besides publicity and maybe research is there to do it? it only costs and doesnt pay

49.789282365474456%
dont ask me how

>>11713124
Why?

Birds can fly at enormous height, over 11000 m o h. Can humans be engineered to survive martian atmosphere?

>>11694679
A better question is why would anyone want to colonize Mars?

>>11713755
Why wouldn't you?

>>11710533
good find

>>11712546
may the fleas of a thousand camels...
>>11713929
yep

>>11713755
>Why would anyone want to colonize the New World? We have everything we need right here dumb explorerfags

>>11694679
really should have done the moon for a few decades desu

I gotta ask. How do you americans feel about space? Here in europe it feels impossible... I just want to work on something in the industry but it feels impossible.

>>11715364
It's ours.

>>11715364
>Here in europe it feels impossible.
Can't you just get dope grades and move to America, or work in a related field, or spectate the field and offer suggestions?

>>11715364
All but forgotten about until a couple years ago. The Shuttle was a meme, the ISS a cliche.

Then you saw those twin boosters landing. What the fuck.

.05%

regards,
pessimist

>>11694716
Musk already told you guys the name, by not telling you:

FOUNDATION

>>11694716
Rack City

>>11694716
Gushing Granny
New Berlin
Or Charlottesville

>>11710195
Are you retarded? Do you really think the people who would fund the colonization of mars are gonna be white nationalists are something?

>>11716471
Very elegant.
What's its steering mechanism for when it launches?

>>11716502

The engines shift positions.

>>11716502

>>11696814
>>industrialize mars
>What is there?
vast untapped raw resources on *Literally no life* to justify restrictions on the exploitation of those resources. It's a giant fucking planetary foundry waiting to happen. Mars will be a literal forge world where the only spots of life are those we placed for our own purposes and thus the entire surface of the planet is game for development and exploitation. + Lower gravity than earth so space launch is easier + proximity to the asteroid belt so even greater resources within relatively easy reach. What's on mars is industrial weath we could never dream of having on earth because in order to get at it we'd have to turn earth into mars, but mars is already mars, so we're free to strip mine and terraform and dredge to our wallets and fleets content. Mars will literally be one massive planet scale mine and factory.

>>11694716
BOGDANGRAD

LONGSHOT

CUMSHOT

Marsy McMarsface

Literally just Jamestown though

Christchurch

BAKERSFIELD

>>11705731
Eden would work if it was New Eden. Eden implies it would be better than Earth which is certainly untrue in pretty much every regard, but if it's New Eden there's a sense of progression and expansion, our way of signalling our intentions to ultimately transform Mars into a bastion of human ingenuity and willpower.

Thinking about it now New Eden would be pretty based

>>11694716
Port Viking, after the first human craft to land on the planet and because we will be going there to pillage it's wealth to fund our expansion.

>>11716515
it's funny how we transitioned from the gilded age of industry around the industrial revolution to a post-industrial service economy and we're going to transition back into a neo-industrialist golden age.

People bitch about income inequality right now, wait till they see what the living conditions are like for the richest people in the world in a couple hundred years when each is worth trillions a pop

>>11716520
New Eden it is. If Musk hosts a naming competition, be sure to vote for it

>>11694716
FUCKNIGGERS
It's French for, "Fuck niggers and fuck jannies."

>>11716520
>>11716539
>New Eden.
Mars is about as far from Eden as it gets, also "New Eden" is the site in EVE of a catastrophic jump gate collapse which plunged humanity into thousands of years of barbarism and chaos.

If you want the first city on mars to be a symbol of peace and unity name it Avalon.

>>11716517
cut the cringe shit and go to bed, kid

>>11694716
Fucking.
>so where do you live, anon?
>Fucking, Mars

>>11716550
>"Avalon... literally meaning "the isle of fruit [or apple] trees")..."
I'd say Mars if as far from that as it gets too. The Garden of Eden is humanity's origin point. A "New Eden" as a new origin point for humanity would make alot more sense. Christianity and the Abrahamic religions have been a mainstay of human society since their conception and are the oldest surviving institutions to date. Like it or not, religion, specifically of the Abrahamic variety, is a vital part of human society and one that MANY many people recognize, even non-believers. Can't really say the same for King Arthur.

>>11716550
>Mars is about as far from Eden as it gets
dude that's EXACTLY the point, naming the Martian capital New Eden is a testament to the essence of Man. Not only do we appreciate the divine, in all its sublime splendor, but we try to replicate it out of nothing. We build our own garden of Eden.
That's an inspiring name to me

Doubt there will be any manned mission before 2050s... probably in 2069 as a 100th year anniversary of the moon landing. You would have to be very delusional to believe it will happen anywhere before that. There’s no technology for a successful in-n-out yet (we barely sent a rover not too long ago and it was a one way journey) or any monetary/ideological incentives.

>>11716609
Starship is being built right now. There's your return vehicle.

>>11716600
maybe a bit blasphemous but this dudes got the point. also cool dubs

>>11716620
And? So is neuralink and a bunch of other “promising” shit as well, doesn’t mean anything. And even IF this led anywhere I’d still say at least a couple of decades away, you seem to underestimate the complexity of the situation, this is way way more complex than going to the moon and even that took decades and human lives even after the tech was already there

>>11716609
I don't know about 2050's. Definitely not the 20's. At the least, late 30's, but I truly believe we'll be putting that into action by the 40's. Beyond that is needless pessimism, and at the rate we're advancing we have every reason to believe mid-late 30's is totally attainable.

>>11716629
You don't get it. First orbital flight of Starship is next year. The only complex thing to work out after that is orbital refueling, and maybe spin maneuvers for gravity en route. The hard part of space is between the ground and LEO. Everything after that is just delta V budget, patience, and math. Building a Mars colony will have its challenges but the rocketry is on schedule for boots on the ground before 2030.

>>11694716
Trumptopia

>>11716530
When they start to pop up, invest in asteroid mining companies. if you play your cards right, you could become a millionaire.

>>11716636
>Definitely not the 20's
KEK believe what you want oldspace

>>11716699
I mean, I don't believe it personally but I would love to be proven wrong. I just don't get how we're going to fit in Artemis AND Mars in just 10 years when Artemis will take at least 10. We aren't just going to the moon to jerk off, we're sending supplies to build a base.

>>11716715
Artemis and Mars are parallel, not series.

>>11716715
mars will probably happen before Artemis

>>11694716
Pretty interesting question considering that sci fi has taken stabs at this countless times in the past 100 or so years. So I think there will be an element of novelty, to create a totally new name

>>11716520
>Eden would work if it was New Eden. Eden implies it would be better than Earth which is certainly untrue in pretty much every regard
Reminds me of "Misplaced Optimism" of Hardwar.

>>11694716
Rome

>>11716471
Gimbaling engines