/sci/ - Science & Math

>>11487833
Maybe.

>>11487843
It still hasn't passed the avg deaths for USA from flu a year.

In USA, avg deaths 7500 a day, it will never reach 7500 deaths, aka 1 extra day.

>>11487833
>Why is it so scary then? It hacked human psychology.
the fact is that it is a new virus that is not harmelss to young people (it could put you out of work a week or two) and it is very harmful to older folks.

if it turns into the next flu, you should expect it to become equal to flu in terms of how many old people it kills. and that's a lot. iirc flu is second only to pneumonia in killing old folks.

if you are a zoomer then maybe you don't give a fuck. but millenials have boomers as their parents (and even though it would make us a lot more rich) we don't want our moms and dads dying. and more realistically, we don't want life expectancy going down. since most people want to live a long life and would rather not have there be a virus that decimates people over 70. it might not make sense to zoomers but for a lot of us, living to 80 or 90 seems better than dying earlier than that.

Diamond Princess
Average age 58
Cruise ship environment with near maximal R0
7 Deaths, all 70 or older
3711 passengers

That's pretty much a worst case.

We can't use positive cases because that will always be a lowest bound indicator. Only antibodies would tell us how many actually got it or had risk for it.

It's similar to flu.

>>11487833
>once a year if all the car crash deaths happened in the span of a week it would freak out humanity. This does the same with a flu-like virus.
AHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA

>>11487862
Yes, but we are shutting down trillions in economy over it. At most those over 50 should be locked down and quarantined.

1. we can't afford to lock down for a year
2. this isn't that deadly and we are making insane guesses.

>>11487867
It's the truth. Ordinary deaths don't psychologically bother us. We are emotional creatures.

>>11487875
Your car accident point is retarded.

>>11487833
>Ability to frontload means hospital systems collapse, death rate jumps to 6-10% as in Italy, Iran, Spain, etc.
>High Ro means it spreads like wildfire and could potentially infect much more people than the flu
>The fact that it's a coronavirus with a high mutation rate makes vaccine development difficult, chances of reinfection high
>Fucks up your lungs for life
>Low-end estimate for the United States with containment 1.5 million deaths, high end estimate in the millions
Just admit you were wrong nothingburger faggot.

>>11487871
the economy will rebound if we stop the virus. like, if the problem went away, the entire economy would not only recover but go back into the same booming trajectory it was on (which was a very remarkable boom to begin with). assuming the virus gets totally squashed out, worst case scenario is that we go back to the 2016-2017 baseline, which was a fine economy. we'd just need to live with the fact that there was a bubble just like the dot-com bubble or the housing bubble that got corrected.

but if we don't stop the virus, then the damage is permanent. we'll have a perennial disease that ravages medicare recipients as well as oldies around the world. and who pays for that? young people. it would hurt the economy.

the only chance right now is to stop it in its tracks. and the idiots who downplay it are just begging for a major setback in the long run

>>11487884
It's really not.

36,000+ deaths in a single day would scare the fuck out of everyone.

>>11487855
>it will never reach 7500 deaths
Prove it.

>>11487903
Clean-data only creatures all got eaten by messy-data loving creatures

I will use New Orleans as my proof-by-example

Watch the number of deaths each day in Louisiana over the next 7 days and plot it.

It had a large spreading event in Mardi Gras and 537 confirmed cases, 14 deaths so far.

I think you would be very surprised to plot it over the next 7 days.

>>11487833
>Shows a large discrepancy that obviously results from differences in confirmed testing.
Or differences in the health care systems.

>>11487924
Perhaps but that large of a difference is unlikely. Though the anti-viral treatments like remdesivir and chloroquine are more effective if used early.

>>11487871
>2. this isn't that deadly and we are making insane guesses.
We'd be making a guess if we continued life as normal while assuming that COVID-19 really isn't that bad. If the models are correct, and the medical infrastructure would be overwhelmed if the virus was allowed to spread unchecked, then you wouldn't just have to worry about the fatality rate of the virus itself, but the increased fatality rate from every injury or illness that you couldn't get proper treatment for.

>>11487935
Putting your country into a GFC tier great depression to save a few thousand lives doesn't work so good when you will lose 20x more lives to opium and other depression-era problems.

>>11487833
Retard. Go ahead and perish.

>>11487940
Japan is doing better than Italy and never shut down.

>>11487939
>Putting your country into a GFC tier great depression to save a few thousand lives
If a few thousand lives are all that's at stake, then I'd agree, but estimates are placing it in the millions if allowed to spread unchecked, with the hospital capacity threshold being surpassed by several fold. *If* hospitals were inundated with that many patients, it would be a disaster. Even with quarantining, there's hospitals getting overwhelmed in particularly virus-laden areas.

Like I'm just saying this "shut it down" response is probably the worst economic response possible. Perhaps we should have looked at other measures, or keeping elderly at home rather than 20 year old people. Is cancelling college and sending everyone home from the dorms really a good response?

I find a lot lacking in the response and attitude It's pretty obvious the extreme panic reaction is more political orientated.

New york it makes sense because it's 1/3rd of the countries cases so far and extremely urban. Our factories, workplaces, etc should have just made changes or at most a week break to prepare contingencies, extra sanitization, better physical spacing, working out a way to deal with eating/social spaces etc.

>>11487948
Can't have virus cases if you're not testing anyone.
They want to ignore it as much as possible because of the Olympics.

>>11487948
>Muh data
Go ahead and perish, retard.

>>11487949
It spread unchecked in Italy and most of Europe. Aboard a cruise ship. The "millions dead" isn't really materializing.

New York / USA was largely going with no changes. Hell Mardi Gras happened in New Orleans with a massive crowd of travelers and it resulted in 14 deaths so far (most from a nursing home, of course)

The worst situation is Italy by far and that's still on a manageable level, as scary as 4000 deaths sounds, it's not that high for 70+ age group.

flu is 389,000 globally a year.

>>11487948
Japan's an interesting case. There's some questioning their numbers since there's an important event coming up that they'd like to project a good image for. They've been running even fewer tests than the USA. On the other hand, Taiwan is doing exceedingly well. In both cases, they were proactive from the start. I know Taiwan in particular is requiring mask use doing temperature checks before entering buildings. The USA doesn't even have enough masks for their health care professionals. The biggest lesson from this is that many Western countries were totally unprepared for a pandemic. They allowed infections to explode in their countries before taking any real action, but at that point, due to the nature of the infection, it had already spread beyond control, which is now why we're seeing quarantining.

This is not to say no response should happen. A response at the expense of 20% of economy with no end in sight and putting every small business into bankruptcy?

GFC in 2007-2008 caused 50,000 extra deaths in cancer alone.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-2008-financial-crisis-increased-suicide-rates-in-us-europe/

Nothing is free.

>>11487971
You can't hide exponential death.

We would know.

Like a good response
- get anti-viral compassionate care to people at the earliest stage possible, especially those 50+ or with pre-existing, aka remdesivir or chloroquine asap

- have everyone wear masks, old people stay home, etc.

- shut down everything and tell people to stay home for 30 days up to 400 days for a vaccine, kill your countries economy and spend the same as the entire iraq and afghanistan war in money to do so.

>>11487963
>The worst situation is Italy by far and that's still on a manageable level, as scary as 4000 deaths sounds, it's not that high for 70+ age group.
Italy completely shut down the country. You need to keep in mind exponential growth. It only takes six weeks for 100 infections to turn into 1 million infections. Go out six more weeks...not good.

>flu is 389,000 globally a year.
So let's just say this virus infects 70% of the population, to match the total flu deaths, it would only need a mortality rate of .008%. The flu has a mortality rate of about .1%, and COVID-19 is estimated at between 1 and 4%. Even if the mortality rate is being overestimated by 100x, it could still kill more people than the flu thanks to being highly infectious in combination with having a long, infectious incubation period.

>>11487978
>You can't hide exponential death.
Thousands of people die every day in Japan. It would be awfully easily to label the causes as something other than COVID-19. It's not like Japan hasn't enacted some strict measures, they're not simply doing nothing, so they could be containing the spread while also under reporting their numbers.

Alright ALRIGHT! Listen here nerds! I'm not looking for any calculator Asian man language statistical bullshit about this thing. I'm not a faggot like's all of you's. I'm only here for one thing and one thing only dorks. Gimme a quick rundown on how bad this shit is actually gonna be here in the US? How long will it last? Give it to me now or else I'll take your fucking lunch money faggots.

>>11488015
>Gimme a quick rundown on how bad this shit is actually gonna be here in the US?
It would be nice if we knew. The fact that the White House went from "everything is fine" for two months to full blown panic should tell you that the potential is scary.

Italy is the only country where the medical sector is collapsing and you can see mortality reach 10%. Just you wait for the same thing to happen in other countries, and the deaths will skyrocket.

>>11488032
I think that that's more of just wanting to keep the status quo and not wanting to be the guy that goes full gestapo mode when it turns out to be a nothingburger. Just a sad part of Human nature really.

>>11487888
lol look at this retard with his talking points and total inability to address anything brought up by OP.

>>11488113
All the USA had to do was actually test people and put some travel restrictions in place before cases started rising. They didn't do either of those things and we are now suffering through a lock down because of it.

>>11487833
It's not about the deaths, retard, it's the huge hospitalization rate.

>>11488432
But we did do both of those things.

>>11487833
>those hips
Hnnnnggg

>>11487886
>pic
Holy shit. US will outperform Italy in a few days if that trend continues. We're with you, bros.

>>11487833
t.

>>11487862
>it is very harmful to older folks
No it's fucking not, stop mindlessly repeating shit you fucking sheep person.
The flu is harmful as fuck to old people too, you never once gave a shit about that until did you? Ever once caught the flu and thought I should be locked inside for a fortnight in case I infect one of the eventual 2.5 million people that die from this shit each year?
You cunts are dumb as fuck and I would bet everything I have this wont even kill 1/4 of a bad flu season.
Fuckin doomfags.
kys, ngmi

Yeahhh you're a FUCKING RETARD.

Here lets see... this already has the amount of deaths that the flu has WORLDWIDE, so if you're saying 'oh it's just way less deadly than the flu' guess what buddy? So was the Spanish Flu before Winter time. Plus, just the psychological effect of you not giving a fuck about the death count when it's the same as a mild flu season for the US worldwide is simply retarded, this is exactly how I respond confronted with a retard like you in real life.

Okay, now this virus also has a high potential to BECOME a recurring virus, so you might see tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of deaths per year added on to the yearly flu count.

IN ADDITION, right now the graph is trending heavily exponentially logarithmically. Basically this means: it is going up fast. Scary fast. We're easily looking at 1 M cases and 100K deaths by the end of March. Time to start paying attention to the fucking numbers buddy, because with an incubation period of two weeks, you've probably already got the damn thing.

Game fucking over.

>It's not that deadly
Yeah you're right, it's not. But if a virus that is NOT THAT DEADLY do THIS to us, then we are basically waiting for a virus with the mortality rate of SARS and the R-nought of this virus to fuck our shit up (which is just one mutation away because they were both Coronaviruses).

>>11487871
>muh economy
Gtfo and learn to live with less bullshit consumerism

>>11487992
Based.
>not being able predict virus behaviour
>therefore not realizing the real threat of covid
>flu has killed more lets wait until covid kills 100x more than the flu to be worried

>>11487833
>- Germany with 19,848 confirmed and 68 deaths
>- Italy with 47,000 confirmed and 4,032 deaths

>Shows a large discrepancy that obviously results from differences in confirmed testing.


Yeah it's the testing, not the difference in political decision making or available medical resources like Doctors, Hospitals, Beds, Ventilators, Nurses

big brain

>>11487855
>In USA, avg deaths 7500 a day
>7500 a day
>7500

>>11488626
>Ever once caught the flu and thought I should be locked inside for a fortnight in case I infect one of the eventual 2.5 million people that die from this shit each year?
Nope, and do you know why? You get symptoms from the flu within 1-2 days, and then you're sick for 3-5 days. That shit's over within a week during which you're feeling miserable and isolate yourself (assuming you're not a dumb ass).

Let's compare that to COVID-19, which can have an incubation period of over a week (and up to two weeks), and recovery after the incubation period is taking two weeks (still contagious during this time), and can take up to six weeks. So you're looking at a minimum of three weeks during which you're contagious, and over two months in very bad cases. That's a hell of a long time to spread the disease.

Also, the flu is estimated to kill 500k each year, not 2.5 million.

>>11487855
>It still hasn't passed the avg deaths for USA from flu a year.
Give this a full year and we'll talk.

>>11489365
>uh, get back to me next year goy! b-bye!

>>11487871
>muh economy
Nigger, your 'economy' is the nation's industrial capacity, which isn't affected by Corona-chan but is and has been shipped away to China.

>>11487888
>the entire economy would not only recover but go back into the same booming trajectory it was on
Okay, professor. Stocks rebounded after the last recession too. It's not like their values would all drop to 0 and never go up again. The economy's performance is a cycle that necessitates recessions, and now we're firmly stuck in one.

Will this Coronavirus get much worse when it hits the US next month?

>>11490020
By next month, the USA may have the most cases of any country in the world.

>>11487833
It could just be that germany has a very high number of ventilators and is classifying deaths differently than italy.

>>11490474
>next month
At this rate the USA might surpass Italy before next week is over

>>11487855

>>11490586
>no hits on google
Got a source for the rest of those numbers? It's good info, but just an image by itself is a bit weak.

>>11487833
>In any case humans are over-reacting to corona-virus
You wouldn't say that if you were a 70 year old with diabetes.

>>11490586
>4300 people a day shit themselves to death
WHY ISN'T THE MEDIA TALKING ABOUT THIS?

>>11490658
The major cause is probably a lack of access to clean water.

>>11488639
>100K deaths by the end of March
Even the most aggressive forecast only puts us at about 38k deaths worldwide by the end of March.

The end of April, though... just looking at countries with active outbreaks, if they all continue to have active outbreaks with exponential growth at 10% per day (right now it's closer to 15% per day) then the end of April that simulation puts the death toll at 425k worldwide. And the end of May would be 7.4 million.

That's obviously an overestimate, because at some point over saturation starts affecting growth. But right now it is showing classical exponential growth and if action is not taken to stop or slow that down then this gets very bad very quickly.

Calculations were done off of numbers from the John Hopkins map:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Take the total deaths in all provinces with 10 or more deaths that have active documented outbreaks still showing exponential growth (e.g., all but China, SK and arguably Japan) -- 9352 deaths. Multiply by 1.10^d to forecast out d days. 10 days -- 24k deaths. 40 days -- 425k. 70 -- 7.4 million. (Note that the actual recorded growth rate of deaths is 15%, not 10% -- I used 10 to be optimistic. At 15 the numbers are 38k by end of March, 2.5 million by the end of April, and 165 million by the end of May. Obviously straight off into over saturation territory even quicker.)

Deaths are used and not confirmed cases due to variances in testing strategies / availability causing very different amounts of confirmed cases in countries. Outside of blatant record doctoring deaths are much easier to classify correctly, and also are the biggest negative outcome of the pandemic.

>>11490474
Are there any other countries anywhere near as large as the US with this as an issue? I'd be amazed if the US didn't have more cases than Italy, it's way larger.

>>11490658
The people dying by it are mostly brown, poor, and not in the US. It's not a threat to their audience and unpleasant in the wrong way to get viewers.

>>11490683
>The end of April, though... just looking at countries with active outbreaks, if they all continue to have active outbreaks with exponential growth at 10% per day (right now it's closer to 15% per day) then the end of April that simulation puts the death toll at 425k worldwide. And the end of May would be 7.4 million.
Wow.

>That's obviously an overestimate, because at some point over saturation starts affecting growth. But right now it is showing classical exponential growth and if action is not taken to stop or slow that down then this gets very bad very quickly.
Right, countries will take aggressive actions to slow it down, but those numbers really show that this isn't a problem that should just be ignored as some people want to suggest.

>>11490684
China is an obvious one. India has a huge population, but so far not many cases (I don't know if it's a lack of testing, dumb luck, or some other reason). The USA and Italy are gaining new cases at about the same rate, but the USA is just starting to ramp up the testing. Hopefully the USA can avoid the death rate that Italy is experiencing.

>>11490718
It won't reach those numbers, not even close it's completely pulled from his ass ignoring any real world sensibilities. About equally as embarassing post as the ones which said "bro at the start of march 100m dead bro look at the expnent man"

>>11490725
That's not a prediction of the future we will have, that's a prediction of a future we could have had if we did nothing to stop it.

We can very, very clearly see what doing nothing does. We've been doing nothing for quite some time. Doing nothing gets you exponential growth. If we were to continue doing nothing, like some people even in this thread suggest we should do, this is what our future would look like.

We are not doing nothing any more. Hopefully what we're doing now will have a big effect on the outbreak. But we won't see it for some time, though; someone dying today most likely got infected three weeks ago, and we didn't start taking this seriously until about a week ago. So we can realistically expect about two more weeks of exponential growth, and then hopefully it starts to flatten out. Hopefully. Fingers crossed.

This was not and was never a prediction of the future. This was a justification for us doing what we needed to do -- something that is hotly argued against even here. Hopefully we've done enough.

the respond to it is completely fucked

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/

>>11490817
>“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.
Translation: We should lie about the stats to feel better about ourselves.

No shit sherlock it preys on people with comorbidities. That doesn't mean those people would be in the hospital dying of those comorbidities if they didn't have the coronavirus making everything worse.

I honestly wonder how many other countries are laundering their death toll by using this trick.

>>11487833
I agree. but I think caution is still warranted. The pandemic perception though is a result of ass-backwards thinking. We're taking sick people and looking for a particular strain of coronavirus but coronavirus of varrying types are fairly common. I think a controlled clinical study needs to be established of people with COVID-19 and a COVID-19-free control group in order to determine if there's actually something going on. I think in Italy what happened is the health care system was mismanaged and fell apart coincidentally at the same time. If this is something different than the reported numbers from China suggest a relatively small spike in their total expectation for pneumonia patients during cold and flu season. Any competent health care system should have contingency plans for a spike, but Italy was rationing fucking ventilators in the first week of this thing.

>>11490869
Most hospitals don't have many ventilators because they tend to never need so many over a short time frame. The ones they have are enough to get them through cold/flu season but that's it.
Now we're seeing what happens when hospitals don't have enough because they never anticipated something like this.

>>11490869
>Any competent health care system should have contingency plans for a spike
Most aren't competent by that standard. I don't know of any country that runs at 20% capacity in case there's a pandemic or disaster.

>If this is something different than the reported numbers from China suggest a relatively small spike in their total expectation for pneumonia patients during cold and flu season.
China was building hospitals from scratch to deal with it, plus using abandoned buildings. I believe one of those buildings collapsed, killing the people inside.

>>11487855
how many people have the flu and how many have this one? are you a literal retard?

>>11490921
USA sees 50,000 deaths due to pneumonia of all causes every year. mostly during cold and flu season.
China sees over 200,000
5 million worldwide.
The only country that you can for sure say something fucky is going on in is Italy.

The most interesting thing about this whole thing is that the reactions, disinformation, lack of ability to cope, and manipulations are more akin to the medieval era than the 21st century.

Yeah, we never really left the dark ages.

>>11490937
Honestly here's where I stand:
There's definitely some reason to take serious precaution about COVID-19.
I think though that there is the possibility there's some statistical anomalies at work, and confirmation biased caused by the news suddenly covering cold and flu season. I guess people are so fucking coddled that they don't realize how many people just fucking die all the time.
But honestly the thing I've always hated most about the world is the fact that everyone is in a rush even though nobody is going anywhere. And for the first time in my life I'm seeing people being forced to chill the fuck out. When I go shopping I no longer feel like most of the people around me have their head stuck up their asses. Other than the supply hoarders people have really rallied together and it's brought out the best in a lot of people. So I'll bite. I'll play along.

>>11490946

Yeah, the whole London Blitz thing. But at the same time everyone wants everything to go back to "normal" ( outside of 4chan ) and when it does then its back to everyone being stressed out assholes again.

>>11487833
How are so many people this fucking retarded about this disease???? The numbers are literally right in front of your goddamned face, the numbers all agree with each other, so why do you stupid fucks INSIST that they're wrong and that every government in the world is collectively hiding that the virus is simultaneously both less lethal and more lethal than reported?!?!?

LOOK AT SOUTH KOREA, THEY TESTED FUCKING EVERYONE, THEY'VE DONE SOCIAL DISTANCING, SO WHAT THE FUCK ON THIS PLANET MAKES YOU BELIEVE OTHERWISE?!?!?!??

For FUCK's sake, ALL OF THIS INFO IS FREELY AVAILABLE FROM THE FUCKING CDC. LOOK IT UP YOU RETARDS.

>>11490957
I mean honestly, I see a lot of senior citizens out and about still. Because I think if you asked them they'd say "well I'm going to die soon anyways. And I'd rather die doing something I love." If all the worst projections are right COVID-19 is probably here to stay. Should we start hibernating our entire society for 3+ months a year? Or should we just get on with our lives and accept the inevitability of mortality, and adjust our economic system to account for an inevitable population decline as a result of it? It sucks for a lot of people and their family it really does. I've lost cousins, I've lost nephews so I know how painful it is. But that's just life. It's dangerous.

>>11490961
I have a gigantic washing machine. Every year I wash 7.53 billion garments. On average 5 million of those garments suffer from color degradation so severe that they are ruined. But the laundry machine is so big that not all of the ingredients of the detergent touch all of the garments. Recently I've started finding one of the ingredients in cases of color degredation. So how do I determine if it's actually causing color degredation?
Or if it's just an already widespread ingredient that I'm coincidentally finding it in color degraded garments?
Because various strains of coronavirus are very common. COVID-19 is a newly isolated strain. That doesn't mean it wasn't everywhere before we learned how to isolate it. And from what we can tell it spreads like microbiological wildfire. So it's possible this thing was spread literally everywhere well in advance of us being able to isolate it and test for it. And since millions of people die world-wide of acute respiratory illnesses each year (mostly during this time of year) it's hard to say where a few hundred thousand extra cases lie. More work needs to be done. The precautions that have been taken to this point are warranted. But we should also establish a proper clinical study of COVID-19 to make sure it's not just a statistical anomaly. Because crashing the economy for a year and a half until a vaccine can be made requires us to be absolutely fucking sure about it. And since the virus seems to have a course of about 14 days it should be a fairly quick study to get done.

>>11490838
no reason to crash the world economy with no survivors then

>people think China is out of the woods

They are yet to discover the reservoir. Who knows if people are still not in contact with it.

>>11491056

>China

Ofcourse they're still in trouble. Why should we believe their deaths are slowing down when they didn't even tell the truth about covid 19 in the first place?

>>11491067
The fact that they're sending out supplies and doctors to hard hit countries now would suggest they've got things under control for now.

>>11491153
They're protecting their investments. Their economy needs the US to recover and Africa to stay healthy.

>>11491174
Yes, but the fact that they can spare manpower and supplies now would suggest that they're not needed as of right now.

>>11490984
>So it's possible this thing was spread literally everywhere well in advance of us being able to isolate it and test for it.
This thing is literally crashing the health care system in the countries it's hitting hard. They discovered quickly because it has markant effects on those that get very sick. Confirmed COVID-19 cases are going to leave clear marks in the death stats in Italy. There will be no doubt when it hit Italy.

>>11490984
>>11491789
Cont.

Yeah, I think your point was lost on my initially. I have reread your post. I think they can take samples from severely ill patients and see that they are saturated with COVID-19 virus. They can look at the lungs and see that it is COVID-19 is filling those babies up. Thus one can at least know that COVID-19 is important for the illness, but I think you are right that they cannot know for sure that it is the only catalyst for the disease, only that it is very likely. Maybe someone with more medical knowledge can confirm or dispute this?

>>11489312
You are completely conflating listed cause of death. It's a ridiculous comparison when any death by any cause of a covid19 infected patient is counted.
Pneumonia causes 2.5 million. Flu /Pneumonia are regularly listed together in stats as one causes the other.
Read more on it.
> US data on influenza deaths are false and misleading. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) acknowledges a difference between flu death and flu associated death yet uses the terms interchangeably.
> David Rosenthal, director of Harvard University Health Services, said, "People don't necessarily die, per se, of the [flu] virus—the viraemia. What they die of is a secondary pneumonia. So many of these pneumonias are not viral pneumonias but secondary [pneumonias]."

>>11491177
Exactly. I can't believe the mental hoops people jump through to justify their positions rather than accept the reality.
Why on Earth would a country in a massive trade war with another suddenly have the resources to help out their competitor while the rest of the world is stockpiling medical equipment and passing emergency laws preventing medicines from being exported.

>>11491842
because they are the villains in the corona-story and want to regain face

>>11487833
>it's not that deadly
It will be when there aren't enough ventilators to go around for all the severe cases.

>>11490984
>>11490984
>That doesn't mean it wasn't everywhere before we learned how to isolate it
Analysis on COVID-19 and its mutation rate proves it was detected very early on, stop spreading disinfo based on retarded speculation. The science is very clear. The virus first emerged around November 25, 2019.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/20477724.2020.1725339?scroll=top&needAccess=true&

>>11487833
>the normal flu gets ignored
nah dude the worldwide quarantine automatically applies to all viruses

>>11488489
the CDC spent several weeks fixing botched tests when they could have just gotten some from the WHO and they're still running low on tests.

>bro you're overreacting

>meanwhile in hospitals where its really spreading
>yeah if you're over 60 fuck off and go die at home
>fuck we still don't have enough intubators
>just share tubes bro
>quick turn the auto industry to mass manufacturing intubators
>fuuuuuck we still don't hav enough beds
>Now the nursearinos and doctorinos are getting sick
>oh you have a non corona problem (a lot of people) lol no care for you

Nothing to worry about lmao

>>11492036
They won't understand until it's too late, anon. We've been telling them for 2 months now and they only act when it's on their doorstep. Spend time convincing your family and friends. Fuck these guys.

>>11487886
>>11487833

How did you come up with these low numbers?

>>11492082
Look at the dates, you fucking retard.

>>11491828
My original point is that SARS-CoV-2 has a much longer contagious period than influenza, and that it's also contagious while asymptompatic, all of which make it much easier to spread than influenza. That's why we're quarantining for it, unlike with influenza.

>What they die of is a secondary pneumonia.
And? What is your point? If they didn't get the flu, they wouldn't get secondary pneumonia, which is why the CDC counts those cases as flu deaths. Regardless, COVID-19 isn't killing through secondary pneumonia (aka bacterial pneumonia), the virus is directly damaging the lungs.

>>11487871
Should we act like the politicians back in 1918? They downplayed the effects of the Spanish Flu and even censored the data about It so as not to affect the troop morale during WW1 (not affect the economy today)
Only the spanish media reported it since they were neutral during the war and the name stuck.

>>11492036
In Italy and Spain they're now sending medical students in their last year (they're getting graduated without their last exam) and retired doctors/nurses into the frey due to the lack of personnel

>>11492089
1) 13k in 3 days. Sure.
2) Don't post outdated shit you stupid fucking zoomer, if your entire argument is built around the numbers being low.

>>11492425
Anon, I think you're confused. Those March 19 numbers are accurate, yours are from March 21, which are also accurate. That really is how much things have changed in two days.

>>11492057
>telling them for 2 months
the average person isn't responsible for hospitals not being prepared for a pandemic

>>11492256
Influenza can actually spread while the host is asymptomatic but only for up to a day or so.

>>11487862
My daddy was a fucking prick, you bigger.

Behold /sci/, the demogorgon (coronavirus spike protein), simulated by folding@home. This dynamic simulation would have been impossible just a few years ago. Noticing any druggable sites?

>>11492542
>Noticing any druggable sites?
Yeah, that red shit. Or maybe the grey shit. Or the blue shit?

>>11491174
>They're protecting their investments
By making sure the rest of the world will be 10-50x harder hit than their fake official figures, perhaps? The CCP is a monstrosity, you have no concept what it will (continue to) do if the world lets it, they just murdered a percentage fraction of the Chinese population and the world is trying desperately to headcanon it out of reality, while the Chinese people themselves are forced at gun-point to go along with it and smile. During a visit of the vice premier in Hubei people were shouting "Fake! It's all fake!" from their balconies, to which the CCP responded by ordering all Hubei residents to undergo mandatory "gratitude education".

People have no idea how little the CCP cares for human lives, doctors in Wuhan were forced to release infected and suspected cases in Wuhan ahead of Xi's entirely 100% fake visit to Wuhan last week, all to pretend there's a recovery underway when Hubei has at best only just gotten through the first wave, and other places have only just begun. All so the numbers matched the propaganda and Xi could pretend to visit one of the makeshift Hubei box hospitals, ..except he was nowhere near there:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xd5n4lUAJfo
The CCP ordered that thousands of patients be discharged from hospital (for them to go home and infect their families) only to paint a pretty picture on state television during his visit ..which was fake:
facebook com/1242755359147955/posts/2773317312758411/
>However, this CCTV exclusive short film of "Vulcan Mountain Hospital" is a solid four-story masonry building with carpets in the hospital.
(cont).

>>11492782
The CCP is in a perpetual state of internal warfare and the people always pay the price, if you think the the CCP gov is in any way prepared for the pandemic that's about to enter its second wave when its individual feudal rulers, from emperor down to kings, dukes, earls and below spend roughly 3/4 of their energy merely surviving politically you'll understand how the CCP is probably the absolute least effective government bureaucracy in the world and it would let millions of Chinese die and then bury the bodies and pretend nothing much happened rather than be an effective "wartime government" (against the virus or possibly their own bioweapon). The world seems to think "well the CCP is authoritarian but at least it gets shit done" but nothing could be further from the truth, they're just authoritarian, period. Authoritarian, totalitarian, and completely and utterly inept. The fact Hubei managed to prevent even worse was all down to Chinese people themselves, doctors, nurses and a few brave souls who put themselves on the line in order to try and begin to correct the CCP's fuckups. Millions of Chinese were just erased from the books almost like they never even existed, it would be criminal of the world to congratulate their murderers for any fictitious success when the second wave is about to take a much higher toll.

If you want to get a sense of where the CCP spends most of its time and energy on scheming internally, watch this video (turn subtitles on, change language to auto-translate to English or whatever)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHoMIYhwOg0
And you'll know not just the CCP but the Chinese people are doomed to suffer from the virus much more than anywhere else in the end, because while the CCP is busy pretending the spread has halted and all China's new cases are supposedly from abroad (yes they're actually pretending all its new cases are imported) the virus doesn't give two flying shits about whatever politics and just keeps replicating.

>>11492542
none whatsoever. it's invincible

Lol at the low IQ wiggers. If corona was a Chinese bioweapon, why the fuck would they infect themselves first?

A much more sane and intelligent strategy would be to infect Europe or the US first. Then shut down travel into China to remain unaffected. Then "develop" the cure (which they'd have been sitting on), and take all the glory.

Instead, now the west hates China even more than before, and the entire world economy is raped.

In addition, every wig nation had literally 3 MONTHS to completely shut down the pandemic. They willingly chose not to. South Korea, Taiwan, Mongolia, and many others just closed the border or at least flights from China early. Taiwan has 20X the population density of the US, and only 1 death. This virus was incredibly easy to nip in the bud, but wigs gonna wig. Why would China give other nations the chance to avoid this? Doing so would have completely crippled the Chinese economy moreso than the rest of the world.

Of course, you're all emotional, occipitally protuberant, low IQ, thymally non-persistent (which adds to your death rate btw) europoids so I expect nothing less. inb4 muh dik

>>11492542

None, we are fucked.

>>11492903
>None, we are fucked.
Doubt.

>>11492782
>doctors in Wuhan were forced to release infected and suspected cases in Wuhan ahead of Xi's entirely 100% fake visit to Wuhan last week
Source:
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/03/b09b868ec468-breaking-news-wuhan-doctor-blows-whistle-on-manipulation-of-virus-patient-numbers.html
>A number of symptomatic patients were abruptly released from quarantine early while a portion of testing was suspended, the doctor said. China's health authorities on Thursday reported no new cases of coronavirus infection in Wuhan, marking the first time for the city to have no instances of local transmission since the viral epidemic began late last year.
>But the doctor, who works at a quarantine facility, said the government tally "cannot be trusted." The number of patients currently undergoing treatment is deliberately being reduced in an effort to show the Xi government's success in combatting the epidemic, he said. The doctor, in his 40s, whose responsibilities include determining whether a patient is discharged from a hospital expressed strong concerns that if the truth remains hidden from the public, another outbreak could occur. Guidelines from the National Health Commission stipulate that patients must test negative for the virus twice and be cleared for pneumonia via a computerized tomography scan before being discharged.
>But according to the doctor, from around the time of Xi's visit, even though his patients still exhibited signs of pneumonia, the patients were released from quarantine at the discretion of a "specialist" from the epidemic prevention and control authority. From then on, the criteria for discharging patients became loose, and "a mass release of infected patients began," he said.
>Also, patient interviews with those exhibiting symptoms such as fever were simplified, and blood tests to detect antibodies produced during infection were discontinued. As a result, "suspected patients were released back into society," he said.

>>11490586
we need more trannies otherwise its gon a take over suicides

>>11492876
Plausible deniability for the CCP culprits. And the high IQ view is that the Chinese people are and have been waging war on the CCP and at some point the world will have to choose a side (so far it has chosen CCP's side surprisingly often because corporations pretended to believe everything was changing for the better and companies like Apple bought into the PR-whitewash heavily to the point of becoming a part of it). You are incorrectly assuming the virus is targeted at the world when it was literally and figurativelym metaphorically symbolically and physically targeted at the Chinese people, ie the CCP's most dangerous enemy. In that sense, the target location was chosen with pinpoint accuracy: China's major transport hub during the holidays.

And even if it wasn't created on purpose but just a result of neglecting to close wildlife markets after 2003's SARS outbreak, the CCP would then try to make sure it goes their way rather than jeopardize their future and make it more precarious than it already was. You may not see it, but after Xi came to power cracks immediately started appearing and after ending term limits EVERY other faction in China knew any hopes of sitting out a 5-year or 10-year term were crushed, and he's been fighting them off and often failing ever since, all while the CCP as a whole tries to get a grip on the people.

A prominent Chinese person held a poll on twitter 3 weeks ago asking Chinese about what they think the source of the virus is:
https://youtu.be/oHoMIYhwOg0?t=1787
>11.9% natural zoonotic source
>12.3% negligent accidental leak of a natural zoonotic virus
>53.3% negligent leak of an engineered virus
>22.6% malicious release of engineered virus

I think I'd trust the Chinese people to at least somewhat accurately judge both the CCP's stupidity and malice given that they are their chief victims and have been suffering under them for fucking decades and witnessing if not experiencing it first hand.

>>11490838
Doctors have zero interest "laundering" anything, experts believe it's simply down to combination of more rigorous testing and screening and lagging behind other countries where outbreaks started earlier:
>At a press conference last Wednesday, Prof. Dr. Lothar H. Wieler, President of the Robert Koch Institute in Berlin said, "From the beginning, we have very systematically called upon our doctors to test people." He added that the German system can provide "testing to a high degree so that we can easily look into the beginnings of the epidemic." Wieler also explained that this is just the beginning for Germany. "If you imagine an epidemic like a curve [...] then there are countries that are simply further" into the progression of this epidemic.
>He expects the case numbers and the numbers of deaths to rise, just like they have in other affected countries. The professor noted that Germany is exchanging information with other countries to learn about the development of the disease and is collaborating on concepts to contain the pandemic. "As long as this epidemic continues to affect our country, it will take months, certainly, perhaps years.
https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-why-does-germany-have-so-few-covid-19-deaths

>>11490586
the difference is that this is taking young people's lives

>>11490984
>. But the laundry machine is so big that not all of the ingredients of the detergent touch all of the garments.
That sounds like a really shitty washing machine.

>>11492782
Over the last two decades, corporate media in the US has consistently, but increasingly, underreported on how loathsome the CCP is because of how intertwined the business interests in the two countries were becoming during that time. So when Western journalists were recently expelled enmasse I was as little surprised by that, as by how little fuss was made about it in the newspapers they're employed by. The whole "Chimerica" model of macroeconomics (sold hardest in the late 90s and early 2000s by such pundits as Thomas Friedman) is the sickest joke of the times I've lived in.

Socialism, globalism, technocracy, and countries without borders would prevent the world from economic collapse caused by global catastrophes such as this pandemic. Prove me wrong.

>>11487871
You're a zoomer so you speak in terms of "we" and "the economy" and other things that arent tangible. You havent had things taken away from you and you dont know hardships. You're probably a social democrat.

Go to a hospital and find someone dying of this thing and then repeat your arguments to them and their family. This idea seems silly to you because you cant grasp it. You will know. Maybe not during this, but you will know. When you do, you will have reached maturity.

Alternatively, read The Plague by Albert Camus.

>>11490946
The issue is it is more contagious than the flu. Let's say it is equally as deadly. Imagine if someone gets the normal flu, that is equally as deadly as the covid19 strain, they get a little dice roll above their head representing their chances of surviving.
The flu will spread to a certain amount of people, imagine them all with dice rolls above them. Covid19 is super contagious so imagine the set of people with normal flu with and multiply that times like 100, all with little dice rolls above them. See how significantly more people will die, even if it is slightly less deadly?
Now consider that through altering our patterns of life for a few months we can reduce the amount of people who have to roll the dice.
Now does the world reaction seem more sane to you?

>>11487871

Lubos Motl pls....

>>11493092
You trust the chinese people's random-ass interpretation of the virus's origin through some poll? Are you retarded? Most chinese people don't know anything about virology, or indeed about anything not circulated through WeChat. Anyway the virus is of course zoonotic, and it's overwhelmingly likely it came from factory farms.

>>11490646
Yeah, well I'm not a geriatric lardass, so I am saying it. I wouldn't be saying it if I were an AIDS-riddled faggot, or a morbidly obese smoker who has a hacking cough even on a good day either.

>>11487855
because it hasnt reached the same spread as flu.....

>Wuhan denying virus tests to keep numbers down
>Despite claims made by mainland authorities that there have been no new local infections of the coronavirus in Wuhan in the last few days, people there have told RTHK this is simply not the case. They say patients are being turned away from hospitals without testing to back the official data, which one person described as a "not medical, but political treatment".
>The city which was the epicentre of the Covid-19 outbreak – which has now become a worldwide pandemic – is returning to normal, according to officials there. Wuhan authorities have already closed the 10 or so temporary hospitals that were set up after regular ones came inundated with patients. The temporary facilities were doing tests on people showing mild symptoms. Officials say these tests are not needed as the number of new infections has fallen sharply.
>But a Wuhan resident, who gave his surname as Wan, disputed this claim. He said that his 70-year-old mother suffered from pneumonia once again after she was discharged from hospital and is now in isolation at a hotel.
>He said no hospitals were prepared to admit her because she wasn't tested positive. He said there is nothing much he can do because he can't leave his home as a lockdown is still in force, and local health authorities only told him to wait. "I feel helpless," he said. Other Wuhan residents reported similar experiences.
>A member of a volunteer group said his mother, who is in hospital with a heart problem, had seen coronavirus patients being turned away by staff. Zhang Yi said it is a political need that is making mainland authorities claim there have been no new local infections. He said he had received messages from officials which showed there were still people coming down with the disease in Wuhan.
>"Whether the official figure is accurate or not, I think you will know. This is a political treatment, not medical treatment," he said.
https://archive.is/tx1CY

>>11493092
seethe more, johann

>>11490984
Some bio warfare soap got into the washer. Now, all the clothes have to stay inside

>>11487871

Money and the economy are literally made up. We put value to these things because it makes trade easier. But they're made up.

>>11492876
It doesn’t have to be intentionally released. Certainly someone with your high IQ understands. Also, there are hate groups in the US threatening to spread it intentionally in their own country. Dumb

>>11490946
Wtf does everyone have to explain it over and over. Read what flu be. Then read what SARS be. Be they the same?

>>11487833
Stop spreading fake news.

>>11487833
based sulli poster

>>11490658
Now I see why

>>11490724
>but the USA is just starting to ramp up the testing. Hopefully the USA can avoid the death rate that Italy is experiencing.
Testing is useful only if you're able to contain those tested positives and track all the people they got in contact with and isolate them too.
Unless you're ready to do so like Korea and China did, it won't have such a huge effect.
I don't see the USA doing it.

>>11487833
no shit. It's almost like the economy was poised to tank (it was) and retards who listen to 24hr news or browse /pol/ are jumpy sheep.

>>11500674
Testing can reveal where you need quarantining, which at this point is pretty much the entire country. Regardless, it's still important as a point of comparison for weeks and months down the road.

>>11487833
>Why is it so scary then?
it floods hospitals, infects hospital stuff, brings the entire healthcare of a country down.

>>11488626
there's a vaccine against the flu. plus, it doesn't even spread as fast.

>>11494860
See you at the soup kitchen.

>>11487833
Tom Hanks Disease

Back of the envelope calculations from 18MAR20 given 6x higher cases than diagnosed using Wikipedia numbers, the fatality rate per country, and given a 70% infection rate in the US. Pop 330m so .7pop is 231m.
Italy 1.3% - 3,003,000
Iran 1.1% - 2,541,000
World, Spain, and PRC .7% - 1,617,000
France .5% - 1,155,000
US .3% - 693,000
Germany and South Korea .2% - 462,000

So the benchmark of public health grading is to see if we managed to undershoot these numbers. For comparison the seasonal flu kill 40k per year in the US with a .1% fatality rate ergo a 12% infection rate.
US flu infection 12%, fatality 0.1%
US Tom Hanks Disease infection unk%, fatality 0.3%

>>11487865
How many of the passengers tested positive? Is this virus is contagious as they say, everybody on that fucking boat should have been positive.

>>11489312
I know you will tell me I’m wrong or trolling. But pretty much everything you said was wrong.

>>11502712
Not him but how is this wrong? It's literally stated everywhere.

>>11502718
No matter What I say, even if I say it is from peer reviewed medical journals, and even if I give you a link to 22000 or some peer reviewed research papers. You won’t read them, or just flat out tell me just because. So I don’t care to tell you why you are wrong.

>>11502734
So you got nothing then, noted.

>>11502703
712, as of a week or two ago. And that's with everyone on board cooped up in there for a month on a ship with air contitioners (which COVID, an airborne disease, is known to latch onto).

>>11487833
>We are sampling the tip of the iceberg

Where does this bullshit come from? China managed to eradicate it mostly by following up on symptomatic cases. There is no iceberg, what we see is what is largely there.

>>11487865
>>11503538

Covid is a droplet infection, not airborne as measles. Vast majority of people on board Diamond Princess were never even exposed. Of those that were, there was 1% mortality rate. This is with top notch medical care, tough, will be several times higher in an overwhelmed heathcare system.

is there a chemical that changes color when in contact with a virus?

>>11503544
>Where does this bullshit come from?
The fact that damn near every western country for a month and a half only tested based on whether you visited China in the last two weeks. Not even Wuhan or even Hubei, China in general. You could have been in Shanghai, Beijing, or Shenzhen and they still would have tested you. And now a lot of places are only testing the severe cases.
The fact that the CDC's admitted that a lot of deaths (and thus a shitload more "flu" cases) due to flu-like illnesses this year might have been undiagnosed COVID. Flu-like illnesses, btw, are up dramatically this year BTFOing even 2018 out of the water.

>>11502734
>No matter What I say, even if I say it is from peer reviewed medical journals
How about linking to one peer reviewed article that shows how the anon is wrong? Don't bother linking to Elsevier and telling people to do their own research, if that's what you're thinking.

>>11503544
>China managed to eradicate it mostly by following up on symptomatic cases.
China's admitted that they're not even counting "positive" cases where the people aren't showing symptoms, and they're now refusing testing for people who are displaying symptoms. They didn't eradicate anything.

>>11493126
>he thinks it's up to the doctors

>>11490869
>trusting Chink numbers

>>11503593
you can fake some tests, you cannot fake actual deaths and people needing ventilators

China eradicated the virus, anything else is just a flat Earth tier conspiracy theory

>>11496544
>Anyway the virus is of course zoonotic
Source: dude trust me.
>inb4 he cites that cope Nature article

>>11503654
>you cannot fake actual deaths and people needing ventilators
They're sending people home to die without treatment because they're refusing treatment to people who haven't tested positive, and they can't test positive if they don't test. People are still dying, just as they always do in China, but they're not being labeled as COVID-19 deaths.

>>11503544
>trusting Chink numerology