/sci/ - Science & Math

Maybe but on the other hand delaying it increases the possibility of a cure being found

>>11475878
>blowing up the y axis by a factor of 10 just to be able to show us how much it hasn't even begun
This isn't fun anymore

>>11475878
What do you expect them to do? If people don't want to pay, let them die for all I care.

You go for the green line and pray that treatment or vaccine is discovered between now and when that blows up.

delaying gives time to increase capacity and get experience

Meanwhile the spread has ended in China
But hey you have shitholes like Italy where people kiss each other to say hello, and don’t bath...

>>11475878
>Why didn't you listen to BASED Bevan

>>11476063
A literal fucking communist

>>11476053
>Meanwhile the spread has ended in China
You mean the same place that uses gutter grease and STILL eats bats, dogs, etc. Fucking sauce me.

>>11476087
Democratic Socialist, but bless you for trying.
Now where are those healthcare per capita figures for the US vs the rest of the developed world?

Also:
>Leaving muh Coronavirus to muh free-market

>do nothing
>the virus doesn't go come back

I'm so sick of seeing this. Herd immunity works in population of like 100 people. There's no herd immunity in a global scale with virus that has such high mutation rate as this one.

>>11476134
we'd never get cold more than once as a young child if coronaviruses as a whole don't mutate like crazy

>>11475878
This can't be happening.

>>11476151
A season you mean. The summer flattening of the curve actually helps the circulation of mutated strains.

>>11476156
Can you elaborate on this?

>>11476047
best case scenario says vaccine in 18 months. And that's with everyone devoting all their resources to a cure, otherwise it would take several decades

>>11476127
>supported Spanish republicans in their civil war while they were torching churches and murdering nuns

Yea ok

>>11476158
This virus has the same mutation rate as influenza. During peak season (winter-early spring) the common form of a virus is the one that's mostly circulating in a population, with a few mutated strains here and there. When summer comes, most of the virus is leveled off and the difference between the mutated strain and the common one is not so big. Come next season, the beneficial mutations of the new strain, like allowing it to infect hosts despite their immunity to the common type, gives it priority to circulate over the previous seasonal strain.

>>11476186
Thanks for the detailed explanation. That makes perfect sense.

>>11476186
but it could mutate into something more benign... in fact the most beneficial mutation it could have would be to mutate into something less deadly like a regular flu.

>>11476194
That's true, but that's just hoping for a good random roll and we would be extremely lucky if that was the case. There's even lower chance of it mutating to something worse, but again, it's all up to the RNG. Not to mention, its Spike domain has been the hot spot for mutations and as far as I know, that just effects antigen specificity.

>>11475878
In these graphs critical care beds remains a constant. Every country that doesn't have it's head up its ass is doing everything possible to increase those numbers and will hopefully make a lot of progress by the fall.

>>11475878
Coronavirus doesn’t matter unless you’re old

>>11476227
It matters to me because my dad is old. My grandparents are old.

>>11476087
wtf thats even better!

>>11475878
I've been having irregular heartbeats and chest pain all day. This stress is going to kill me.

>>11476053
>Meanwhile the spread has ended in China

Will it be safe to go outside again in a few weeks or do we need to wait until this whole thing blows over?
Can this last for months to the end of the year without us going out?

>>11476323
they just stopped reporting cases

>>11475878
So the secret is to catch it earlier than your neighbor, good to know I'm on my way to Wuhan as we speak

>>11476053
>Meanwhile the spread has ended in China
It's not over for China until they release the quarantines and it doesn't bounce back.

>>11476698
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM this looks sustainable long-term

>>11475878
most western countries were looking at huge demographic problems in a couple decades due to the massive number of retired old people compared to the working population. looks like its not a problem anymore

>>11476698
They've already released them. "Moderate" measures can keep it suppressed indefinitely. If there is a second wave, it will hit next Winter.

>>11475878
>says we're all fucked
Boomers are fucked. :^)

>>11476181
>supported Spanish republicans in their civil war while Franco was butchering innocents

Fixed that.
But if you have real issues we can move to /his/

Bevan's basic point about universal basic healthcare as a right and system is unmatched in it's civilizing candour; No other parliamentarian non-PM, worldwide has come close.

He made Churchill look a fool.

>>11477161
bASED CYNIC

In the next two weeks we will witness a breathtaking degree of human ingenuity. It’s starting to bubble up now. The most capable among us are now fully engaged. That virus doesn’t know what’s coming for it.

>nuns are good
Nuns have been complicit in child sexual abuse for as long as anyone can remember. To hell with nuns.

>>11475878
Can we please stop with the flu meme already? Most people getting sick won't even notice it. Most people dying from it would have died anyway from other illnesses.

>>11477193

This is no meme. Humans do their best under duress. But I don't think this thing is big enough to warrant anything extraordinary. We need something like "an asteroid is going to hit Earth in 2 years and wipe out half of the planet" for the species to get their asses in gear and develop something worthwhile.

>>11477193
Coronaviruses aren't sentient. Only bacteriophages are sentient.

Society is on the brink of total collapse.

>>11477217
>But I don't think this thing is big enough to warrant anything extraordinary.
The actual death rate of COVID-19 may not be big, but the anger and panic caused by it will kick humanity's arses into gear. It's actually going to be a beautiful thing to watch.

>>11477193
>>11477217
>>11477332
You could be right, look at how America blossomed after WW2. America did very well following WW2.

You must know 1 thing about WW2 that may or may not be different from today. During WW2 EVERYONE helped with the war effort. All Americans banded together to help the war in some way. The women would were building airplanes and creating bandages for the front lines. Everyone came together for a single unifying effort. This unified collaborative effort short-circuits peoples selfish "me first" mentality that they tend to have during a crisis. If we go into this like "everyone go home, stay home, you're on your own and don't trust your neighbors who may be sick" then we may come out the other end being more selfish and self centered then ever before. It could create a toxic culture that becomes a slow death for society.

>>11475878
Why cant they just turn industry to churning out more intensive care beds.

>>11477358
not efficient

>>11477358
cause the US industry is in China, and they'll likely give the middle finger to US

>>11477353
Yep. It's why I think it's going to be a beautiful thing. I actually think more lives will be saved by COVID than will be destroyed, purely because of the science boom that is going to happen. Never underestimate humanity. Yes, we have s0yb0ys but we can move fucking fast when we need to.

>>11477353
boomers dying is always a good thing, with some exceptions. even when we become boomers it would mostly be a good thing

>>11475878
I bet now they wish their country wasn't 1/3 uncooperative muslim and african immigrants

>>11475878
Their graph is useless without the specifics of their modelling. Why is the inflection point of the orange curve at Oct 20 the same exact time as the knee of the green curve? What assumption in their model is causing that? Where are these beds, in the UK? Globally?

>>11475878
This is absolutely based.

>we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic
Which would be an infection rate exceeding the infection rate of every single disease active on the planet combined per year.
I'm not even going to read into their model. It's so hilariously broken it's amazing they didn't get fired for developing it.

>>11475878
Why is there expected to be such a massive resurgence? Cold weather impacting viral survival in the environment? At that point the only communities susceptible would be ones that never eradicate the virus or isolate the sick, like the UK employing their herd immunity policy.

>>11477168
They're going back to work, but it seems like everything else is shut.

>>11477367
China has an interest in helping out.
>get america sick
>sell them medical equipment
>now they can buy consumer crap again
They need to turn things around so people don't start deciding relying so heavily on countries that eat random dead things they find in the forest could have issues.

I have been ignoring literally everything about this and shall continue to ignore it. people will get bored of this in a few weeks and go back to normal as everyone realizes this is a fucking stupid-ass overreaction. people will look back at this as one of the most embarrassing "incidents" in modern history, mark my words on that

>>11477201
>Can we please stop with the flu meme already? Most people getting sick won't even notice it.
The dead people won't notice it either.

>>11477528
>people will get bored of this in a few weeks and go back to normal as everyone realizes this is a fucking stupid-ass overreaction.
Anon, maybe in the end you'll be right, but it's not going to happen in a few weeks.

>>11477528
hard to ignore it when everything is closed in my city

>>11477600
Why not? China and Worst Korea are already back to normal

>>11477611
>China and Worst Korea are already back to normal
being THIS fucking dumb

>>11477611
I wouldn't call it back to normal, and China is just now easing up on two months of quarantine. Things won't be back to normal in the USA for months.

>>11477403
boomers were the weak men in good times

>>11476053
>Meanwhile the spread has ended in China

>>11477528
If only
>In this post, I will explain that the mentality of everyone is to move to a war footing — especially from governments. We have seen a glimpse of this from China in dealing with (1). But we need
https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/flattening-the-coronavirus-curve-is-not-enough/

>>11477528
>get bored of this in a few weeks and go back to normal
>look back at this as one of the most embarrassing "incidents" in modern history
No one will be ready to admit the overreaction is a mistake. We're infested by cowardice, even suggesting our current actions are an overreaction gets you attacked and shunned. It's going to take them 3 months at least to reset.

>>11477806
>The great news is that we — and by we I mean the generation who were adults in World War II — have done this before.
>WW2
>95+ year olds
I've never read an article by a necromancer before. I'm glad they're on our side regarding the Corona.

>>11477193
As a software engineer with training in electrical engineering, is there ANYTHING I can do to help at all?

I want to help but I feel powerless

>>11478062
start looking for job openings after the virus peaks, there will be dead engineer boomers

>>11478065
I kind of want to move out of software and back into EE, but it was dead in Canada, maybe there will be openings.

Still though, I want to help if I can.

>>11478065
>Implying there will be jobs

Everything is going to stagnant for several months or however long Corona is a big deal, then there's going to be recession.

Anyone who doesn't have job now are in big trouble.

>>11475878
Models are such fucking bullshit. God I hate modern science.

i really hope the report is wrong.
real bummed out by it.

>>11478223
>i really hope the report is wrong.
That makes two of us, anon. Hope for the best but be prepared for the worst.

>>11475878
why don't we just build more beds? It can't be that hard, just set up a hospital in a furniture/mattress store

>>11478308
critical care bed =/= bed

the people severely affected by the virus need closer medical attention than being thrown in a big warehouse full of beds

>>11478308
Save us IKEA, you're our only hope!

>>11477201
Alot of people already got it. The first actual cases were in November. It spread alot earlier than people thought, so most wrote it off as a weird flu.

>>11476063
>doesn't negate treatment due to public healthcare
>still doesn't have space for treatment above a certain limit

>>11478183
>Anyone who doesn't have job now are in big trouble.
Yeah, I'm out of a job right now, I don't know what I'm going to do.

>>11477367
Then it's war, which is the only thing that could make this fun again.

>>11478207
What do you have to show that is more accurate

>>11478308
You can easily make a cot but you can't easily make a high tech ventilator

But this board told me it was just the flu.

>>11478987
It is though.

OK, should I quit my job at a hotel I work at? They aren't going to shut it down and idiots are still going to want to stay there. There is already 1 confirmed case in my city. I live with my dad who had a heart attack in December and I don't want to risk infecting him.
What do I do?

>>11480028
just go full NEET bro

Isn't the answer then to simply quarantine like China did, so you purge the virus entirely? Mitigation is retarded, it clearly doesn't work. This will actually save more economy in the long run

>>11480049
The answer is a mixture of intermittent suppression and mitigation tactics. The virus could easily return to china

>>11480056
If they're getting the numbers down so effectively, something tells me they'll be able to suppress any future outbreaks much more quickly and easily. They're on high alert now.

Something I haven't heard anyone talk about is the complication that people from "mitigation" countries will be unable to travel to quarantine countries for potentially years. There is a firewall there

>>11480058
do you not understand the economic toll of shutting down a city of 11 million people (let alone the rest of the places they've shut down)? they report like 20 cases a day. IF that's true, and WHEN they start the city back up, millions of people all at once are going to get coronavirus. they basically have to stay like this for 10+ years at this rate before its safe to open the city again

>>11480061
11 million out of 1.5 billion is literally nothing.

>>11480067
Are you retarded? Totally incapable of thinking for yourself? Ignoring the fact that you're proving me right here (because the less people getting infected now lockdown or not, are going to start filling up hospitals later -- especially in a country with widespread respiratory illness like China), I stated 11 million because that's the entire population of Wuhan. I don't know how many other Chinese cities are on lockdown off the top of my head. Jesus you're retarded. Kill urself my man

>>11477180
>Bevan's basic point about universal basic healthcare as a right and system is unmatched in it's civilizing candour
I take it you approve of it, but what the fuck is this actually supposed to mean?

>>11477614
The quarantine is over and people are going back to work. Going back to normal, but not normal yet.
t. My friends there already work four days a week and they go hiking every week

>>11478308
Pneumonia does more than put you in bed, you could need help to breath

>>11475878
Why is the critical care capacity line flat? The whole point of "buying time" is to allow production to increase that as needed.

>>11480028
How good is the job? What's job availability like in your area? I'd lean towards quitting if you can afford it and know you'll be able to find work elsewhere in a few months.

>>11480049
>Isn't the answer then to simply quarantine like China did, so you purge the virus entirely?
It's infecting the rest of the world. Even if you could eliminate it entirely in one country, there's still a significant risk of it getting back in when the infection is so prevalent elsewhere.

>>11475878
the internet is an advertising/hype machine that has been optimized for getting people to keep clicking on shit and seeing advertisements

people like to read about catastrophic scenarios.

therefore, any model which predicts catastrophe will propagate throughout the internet

>>11480049
>Isn't the answer then to simply quarantine like China did, so you purge the virus entirely?
The point of quarantine isn't to purge the virus. The same amount of people in China are going to eventually get the virus. The issue is that this virus spreads exponentially (r0=2+) so that if we didn't isolate, the hospitals would be totally filled before april, and the death rate would sky rocket because people who need even the simplest amount of help can't get it. Quarantine allows you to "flatten the curve".

>>11480564
That line is not going to increase in any meaningful way. The amount of available nurses is going to roughly stay the same, the amount of hospitals and ventilators is going to roughly stay the same.

>>11480049
Also keep in mind that people think "flatten the curve" means less people get it. The flattened curve could have a greater area under it, or a smaller area, it doesn't matter, the point is that it gives hospitals breathing room.

>>11476560
>Can this last for months to the end of the year without us going out?

THIS is my concern; realistically we can't stay inside for more than 1 month, otherwise nobody has a job afterwards. So what do we do if we come out of 1 month isolation and someone coughs 2 days later cuz they were asymptomatic and then end up reinfecting everyone else.

lol this virus is showing how utterly unprepared we are, even China has closed down Wuhan again after new community spread

>>11478365
>4 decades of neo-liberal muh free-market gutting and PFI shackling of debt and corrupt spivvery
>Presided over by USA Healthcare lobbyists selling assets and services off via bought politicians

>>11481341
>18 months

>>11480028
Stop stealing all the hoe's monies

>>11481341
>China has closed down Wuhan again after new community spread
proofs?

>>11476047
That's enough time to get 300 million masks produced though.

>>11481757
same here.

>>11475878
Time is important.

>>11478207
You hate science, is what you mean

>>11476053

>>11480144

>>11481834
>lmao actually believing shit from China fucking retards haha yeah bro totally trust them lol
>DUUUUUUDES LOOK WHAT THE CHINESE SAID ABOUT THE VIRUS OMG BROS IT'S HAPPENING XD

all you had to do was
ban
the
damned
travel

>>11481864
BUT AH HAFTA GAH TAH MAH SPRANG BRAAHK WAAAHHH

>>11481864
>BUT MUH MARKETS
>people dying and desperation closings of schools and businesses make the market crap out anyway
Now I have to be scolded along with normies who are just now paying attention that these measures were inevitable and necessary. Probably enforced with military power in a week or so, too.

>>11475878
>look at OP's pic
>Do nothing makes this whole thing end in a few months
>isolation prolongs it
>area under curve is probably not drastically different
is quarantine really the best solution?


>many countries already under quarantine
>let's say in a month everyone goes back to normal
>one person who traveled somewhere, or who hasn't recovered fully, can reintroduce the virus to the population
then what?

Be straight with me
was this virus engineered?
At this point I am open to the possibility.
The thing is just too perfectly destructive

>>11475878
This maximum hospital capacity is going to include the old and already sick mostly. All we can do is make sure the spread is slow enough to accommodate them.

>>11482001
>Be straight with me
You are a retard.

>>11481997
Ideally we would have a vaccine or better treatment protocols figured out.
Not ideally, we go to to the Italy-zone.

>>11482001
Bunch of papers were written about it. Current consensus is that it seems to be natural. It's still relatively benign compared to what our ancestors had to deal with though, with death rates in the >20% range.

Corona will probably become endemic and we'll have to simply live with the fact that flu season can kill your parents or completely wreck your lungs. We (and by that I mean not us but the boomers) had a nice run between vaccines for all old major diseases & cheap mass-produced antibiotics, and this thing popping up. Hopefully we'll get a vaccine at some point in the far future.

Be thankful we aren't dealing with something like antibiotic-resistant bubonic plague, or bird-flu-but-actually-contagious-as-this-thing, which would have absolutely wrecked human society given how unprepared we are.

>>11476134
>>11476151
I haven’t had a cold in 15 years honestly, is that not normal. Haven’t had the flu for 6. No other virus in this family mutates significantly enough to change the glycoproteins on the cell membrane that the immune system recognizes. The mutations that occur rarely affect antibody recognition in colds, flu, basically all other viruses in its class. If re infection in the same outbreak is as likely as you are suggesting, this virus is mostly certainly not natural and was man made, and not s coronavirus.

>>11476063
What a fucking idiot.

>>11480644
>That line is not going to increase in any meaningful way. The amount of available nurses is going to roughly stay the same, the amount of hospitals and ventilators is going to roughly stay the same.
We can train more people. Lower the formal criteria for the job and send them on corona specific nursing bootcamps.

>>11482029

Enough about you!

>>11476053

>>11476134

>that has such high mutation rate as this one

yeah and its more likely to become less deadly.

>kitten from the "hot toddy" Bong died
>Dog from the Hong Kong woman died
So, it will kill primates and Carnivora (except bats, probably)
I suspect it can infect and kill all Mammalia like rabies.
Am I wrong ?

>>11481765
Add on a crash production program for inflatable field hospitals, ventilators, ECMO machines, and oxygen equipment. And a WWII-style draft and training of people who've gotten over it already to staff the hospitals.

>>11476053
>>11477468
>>11476708
>>11477168
Why are the Chinese so based? Will they inherit the earth?

>>11480564
It takes 4 years to train an ICU nurse

>boomer remover
>young ones are safe
>just a flu
>people who die would have died anyway
Roll the dice, fucking idiots.

>>11478223
>>11478276

I mean ICL is one of the best scientific institutions on the planet, they wouldn't put their name on something like this unless they were 100% sure they were correct.

We are actually fucked, like completely and utterly ruined as a species.

Fucking China man

>>11482889
>ha ha ha dumb schizos believing everything they see on the internet! I'm so much smarter than them...
>OMG THIS DUDE I FOUND ON THE INTERNET WAS SCARED BY LUNG SCANS!!! WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIIIEEE!!! MAYAN APOCALYPSE IS HEERE!!! HEEELP!!!

>>11475878
Can someone explain why everyone is projecting that this will last 3~4 months in the states? Most places are are encouraging that everyone stay home right now, so wouldn’t the virus go away in 3~4 weeks since it it would be harder for it to spread? Whats keeping the virus going?

>>11483099
That's all based on some mathematical models that have been shown to be useful in past epidemics. But think about it in a different way if you prefer: the states are much softer than China and China had it suppressed only after 2 months or so. Even so, China still has new cases regularly and they cannot afford to loosen the restrictions. And China is something like 3-4 months into the epidemic by now.

>>11476087
Dang at first I thought his quite made sense but then you used the bad man buzzword thanks for saving me

>>11483099
>Whats keeping the virus going?
1) People that have to do their job
2) Retards

>>11483099
>Whats keeping the virus going?
Winter season is a bitch.

>>11477893
Liches get bitches.

>>11483113
That makes a lot of sense. Though I wonder how how much population size/density would affect the amount of spread? China and the Continental US are about the same size, but China population is about 3x bigger.

>>11476134
>>11476151
>mutate like crazy
>high mutation rate
stop with this fake news meme

ALL viruses have high mutation rates. It doesn't mean jack shit necessarily, especially in the short time frame of an outbreak. Most mutations do not mean you suddenly have a vicious killer disease. Evolutionary success is complicated- too agressive and you don't spread. Too mild and you spread but there's no deaths. You can understand this in simple flash game. Back on point. Vaccines developed decades ago are still good now for virus families that mutate much more frequently than coronaviruses. Coronaviruses actually have 'proofreading' enzymes which tend to make RNA replication more consistent.

On the subject of colds, it's not mutation rate of one virus family that make them so common. The symptoms we associate with the common cold are of a wide range that you get with so many viruses that enter a very easy, common route into the body. Therefore any number of viruses are responsible and because of the mild symptoms we don't typical treat with antivirals. When it comes to vaccines the development case just isn't worth it when you have several virus families at play, not to mention the different strains. And it just might not be practical. When it comes to coronaviruses, the antibodies are not as long lived. Maybe a few months at best.

>>11483171
>You can understand this in simple flash game.
wasn't as good as I remembered it

>>11483168
Good point, didn't really think much about population.

>>11478062
Use your computer for folding@home

>>11475878
Our boy already debunked this article

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1239933769982840832

>>11483275
can anyone even remotely control our boy TALEB?

>>11483171
>Vaccines developed decades ago are still good now for virus families that mutate much more frequently than coronaviruses.
Influenza?

Is China lying about their reported cases? They've literally reported the same numbers every single day for like week. The math on this makes no sense with how the virus spreads. Is it coming from the outside? Is there still a contact with the virus reservoir?

>ALL viruses have high mutation rates.

Not true. DNA viruses don't mutate as fast as single strand RNA viruses. Double RNA viruses are pretty stable as well. Also the proofreading enzyme just means that if it gets damaged, mutation will jump 10-20 fold. This virus has already showed high mutation and with the damage it has done so far, if this enzyme gets lost, this virus will be literally impossible to stop by a vaccine. Mutated strands without the proofreading enzyme have been showed to be stable in vitro too.

>>11483275
>debunked
>The outbreak can be stopped completely with no resurgence as in China
?????????????????????????????????

How is this a debunk? That's totally conjecture. The only way we can know if it's been stopped (and there is absolutely no reason to believe this is the case outside of Wuhan), is by waiting a month.

>>11483428
>Is China lying about their reported cases?
They have to be. 20 new cases a day in a country of 1.5 billion people, with a virus that remains asymptomatic for 2 weeks, with an r0 of 2.5, guarantees that there will be fast exponential growth anywhere where there isn't Wuhan-tier lockdown

>could be done with all this shit by august
Tempting

>>11476047
Just put everyone with flu symptoms on chloroquine

>>11482027
Flu-type viruses have selection pressure towards less-lethal variants because dead people don't spread viruses.
It'll probably mutate over time into something that has a death rate approaching regular flu (~0.1%)

>>11483171

This, coronavirus are actually far less mutational than influenzaviruses and rhinoviruses, because they have a greater amount of RNA bases. Although this one is especially mutational for a coronaviruses, granted.

>>11483556
>Flu-type viruses have selection pressure towards less-lethal variants because dead people don't spread viruses.
Proof? There doesn't seem to be sufficient evidence that increasing virulence leads to reduced transmission. The /spanish flu/ was extremely virulent but also extremely efficient at spreading. More virulence means more coughing/sneezing, and with a virus like covid-19 that is ostensibly aerosolized for several hours, this could be a good thing. Who knows how many other benefits there are to increased virulence as well.

Chloroquine is the FIX

[YouTube] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4J8kydOvbc (embed)
[YouTube] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4J8kydOvbchttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4J8kydOvbc (embed)
[YouTube] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4J8kydOvbc (embed)


Coronavirus : diagnostiquons et traitons ! Premiers résultats pour la chloroquine

WATCH THE VIDEO

>>11476708
kek that is not sustainable long term
I applaud their attempts at shutting the spread down though

>>11478918
>war between two unhinged nuclear powers
virus would be preferable

>>11483639
*goes blind, goes deaf, and has explosive diarrhea in your path*
nothin personnel, kiddo

>>11483625
Large part it has to do with that humans don't take measures against strains that don't do economical damage, so in a way we act as natural selection for viruses. Anyway, with this virus mortality has nothing to do with the problem. It's the long incubation period we worry about, and that's a beneficial mutation for the spread of the virus, so not one that the virus will want to get rid of naturally.

>>11483595
They mutate less, but not by a much. Also there's a lot of factors when it comes to mutation, not just error rate of RNA polymerase. For example how many copies does a virus make per cell infection. This is why it's unwise to go forward with Herd Immunity when we are uncertain about the mutation rate of this virus.

>>11483556
Moreover, there are examples of increase virulence leading to increased transmission (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/259/5100/1442 and https://www.pnas.org/content/105/21/7489.short and https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rspb.1999.0651)), albeit among a variety of parasites and bacterium rather than viruses. There's a lot of interesting papers on this topic that don't seem to ever come to any even general conclusions. Most papers seem to suggest as an unsupported prediction that there's an unknown trade-off, an optimal virulence, rather than a selection towards less virulence.

>>11483655
>Large part it has to do with that humans don't take measures against strains that don't do economical damage, so in a way we act as natural selection for viruses.
That's true. The papers I linked (>>11483674)
don't explore that territory at all. It makes sense but I would be curious to see the timeframe on something like that. We will see^TM

>>11483655
>Anyway, with this virus mortality has nothing to do with the problem. It's the long incubation period we worry about, and that's a beneficial mutation for the spread of the virus, so not one that the virus will want to get rid of naturally.
Pretty interesting. There's a hypothesis that the quarantining in China led to the selection of a strain with a longer incubation period and lower lethality.

ICL are cringe cucklords they said 250,000 deaths in the UK they can get fucking lost with barmy figures like that

Complete morons these so called """experts""" will be exposed by May

Things are finally getting back to normal in China, thank God.

>>11483738
high iq poster detected

>>11483773
yep, thank god guys! back to normal. nothing to see here

>>11483773
nice, time to resume spread

>>11482889
>just a flu

I take issue with this statement. Trivialising the flu as though its nothing. Millions of people get infected each year causing millions of hospital visits and tens of thousands of deaths in the USA alone (hundreds of thousands worldwide) EVERY SINGLE YEAR. The winter time for the northern hemisphere is the dreaded 'flu season' for the healthcare services and it is pretty bad stressing the system as it is. To compare anything to 'the flu' as though it means nothing is just plain ignorant.

>>11483674
It would make sense how increased virulence and symptoms like coughing, sneezing, bleeding, projectile vomiting, pustules, diahrrea, insomnia and so on, would increase contagion.

Unironically this is very well explained in the game Plague Inc. There does seem to be a trade off between virulence increasing transmission but also mortality (and thus notoriety) reducing the rate of transmission.

>>11483639
assuming more throught studies confirm chloroquine is as effective as frogs believe, how much time until we can uplift all contaiment measures?

>>11482029
Idiocy is expecting
>Muh individualist free market
to deal with key wider societal issues

>in b4 muh commie hurr durr bad

What's the chances that this person has Covid-19?
>old
>70 years old
>coughing a lot
>sneezing a lot
>lack of oxygen, can't speak properly because of that
>blowing her nose a lot

This person had close contact with my mother, who is 50 years old, and I'm concerned for my mom. I know that her immune system is great, but not the best.

>>11484692
>sneezing a lot
>blowing her nose a lot
Upper respiratory symptoms are uncommon to rare with COVID-19. Doesn't mean she didn't have it, but if she did it was not a classic presentation of the disease.

>>11484699
Thanks for the image and the response.
I talked with my mom and it didn't seem like it was COVID-19, it was more like the flu. The old-lady didn't leave her home to distant places, only to small-local markets and places like that. I imagine that it would be hard for her to catch the covid.
fuck i'm relieved

>>11484717
The big one seems to be the fever. People with colds rarely have high grade fevers, but they're very common with both COVID-19 and Influenza, both of which can be deadly for the elderly.

>>11483639
do you actually expect anyone to watch an entire video in fucking frog slang? Leave it to the arrogant French to expect you to know their retarded language. Newsflash: FRENCH LOST, ENGLISH WON. Get with the fucking times

>>11476250
go outside lol

I came back from Thailand a few weeks ago, my friends and I had a mild coof and occasional headache that went away after about 2 weeks. No fever, no fatigue.

That wouldn't have been it would it? My mother hasn't shown any symptoms so far (been about 2 weeks since last of my symptoms) so it couldn't have been it right?

>>11485067
Strictly speaking, yes, that could have been it. It probably wasn't, but even if you had no symptoms whatsoever you still could have had it.

That's the problem with this virus, and why containment does not work unless it is complete and utter enforced-by-military-police lockdown of the whole community. Too many typhoid mary's running around with little to no symptoms, spreading it to people who then actually develop symptoms and may even need hospitalization.

You probably didn't have it, in all likelihood. But if you did, you won't know until people around you start getting seriously ill. And even then, you still won't know if it was you or some other source.

Welcome to the new normal.

>>11483651
that's only if you take it for a long ass time

>>11476053

Imagine believing figures approved by the Chinese censors. China is still in damage control mode but Pooh Bear wants the middle kingdom to look strong.

>>11476047
Is this all a ploy to vaccinate us with whatever they want and place mandatory trackers on our phones?

>>11476215
best thing that could happen to the virus is it mutate into something much deadly, something that instantly kills the patient, would make it much more noticeable and much less prone to spread

It's just a flu. How bad can it be?

>>11485502
Censorship is china is massively overblown by western propaganda.

>>11483639
It's not just chloriquine, they're using azithromycin too

>>11482990
Hahaha, you're so edgy and cute. Frens?

>>11485083
I hope that was it and I hope both me and my mother were asymptomatic, but I guess we will wait and see.

Thanks man.

>>11485754
he is not wrong though, you are cherry picking sperg

>>11486155
>cherry-picking
As I said, roll the die, idiot.

All I've said is that there's a chance for zoomers to get terrifyingly bad lung conditions they suffer their whole life from or death. Denying that is as stupid as you two are.

I don't know, maybe I am stupid, but there is credible evidence that this virus could have started in september, if it really is that contagious, couldn't it already be very widespread among the world population. I really want to know what the dark numbers are. So far the data just doesn't add up and that is probably due to the testing issues. Many people experienced uncommon infections over the last couple of months.

>>11475878
>Do you agree?
Kind of. Pushing it to the end of the year at least gives us the chance to increase capacity.

>>11477180
>the republicans didnt steal vast quantities of spanish gold and take it to their enclaves in france, ussr and mexico
>anarchists and fascists weren't openly shooting eachother in the streets months if not years before the military uprising
>the leader of the centre-right (oppostion party atm), Calvo Sotelo, wasn't murdered at 3am by state (leftwing coalition) militiamen by taking him from his home and shooting him at the side of the road
>there werent militias actively hunting down priests and aristocrats and executing them with no due process (search "las checas de Madrid")

Im neither a fascist nor a communist but what I cant stand is people spreading misinformation and worse yet acting smug about it.

Comparing a developed country (Germany) to the USA

>>11486325

Blue line being the number of ICU bets in my region (currently at 100/100 000). Which shows how these practices of isolation have an effect

>>11486325
Germany has been lying about their mortality rate by not testing people who have already died by the virus.

>>11486285
Take it to /his/ senor
>Franco dindu nuffin h

>>11486325
The dry wit is based

>>11486330
As opposed to
>Muh it'snothing dun worry we don't need testing
USA?

>>11482889
>New York Post

>>11486330
>not testing people who have already died by the virus.
how do you know they died from the virus if oyu dont test em?=

>>11475878
that's been around for a week or so, OP, however... yes! Capacity is lightyears away from what is needed. Italy is done without hitting even 0,1% of populace infection rate, while everyone predicts a finaly rate of 40-60% ... just let that sink for a second

>>11476063
please post this in chinese

>>11486751
Because they still test those in close contact with them, and surprise, they test positive.

>>11486845
but you cant proove they got it from the bodies, theyre cremated,w hat do youo know, you have no proof

>>11486851
No one's saying they got it from the bodies. Their relatives got it from them or vice versa. The problem is Germany is going with the "if they're already dead, who cares" mentality

>>11483818
Hilarious