/sci/ - Science & Math

>>11421384
It's actually pronounced "cuh-roh-rah-rye-luss".

>>11421384
Since this is basically SARS2, and SARS peaked out by may similar to other flu like viruses, does science expect a similar pattern with COVID-19?

In other words, is it likely we get a lul in infections in the summer, and extended time to work on a vaccine before the fall flu season?

>>11421544
>is it likely we get a lull in infections in the summer?
That's what I've seen speculated. My main concern, and why I've been so unhappy seeing it spread, is that it may be bimodal is its resurgence: like the Spanish Flu, it could be most fatal in its second showing next season.

>coronavirus general
>not covid-19 general
>doesn't even include latest published literature
>a godamn YouTube link
Is this what /sci/ has been reduced to?

>A British Man Says He Cured His Coronavirus With Whisky

Does this work?!?!

Could the cure to coronavirus be some corona beer?

You know, the other day I was wanking off to Corona-chan and thought, if she was an actual sapient girl, I would betray humanity for her, in a heartbeat. God, I'm so pathetic. Any other anons as pathetic as me, here?

>>11421756
Well, you can cure HIV with sugarcane juice.

>>11421384
Awesome spherical cranium. Great size. Looking round, smooth, with good curvature. Keep it up man - wanna see how freakin' self referential, looping and fractal like your thoughts can get, circling around your round brain. Thanks for the motivation.

>>11421756
Corona is the pussiest beer ever

>>11421756
>this man healed cancer with homeopathy

that's how you create fake science

>girl asked me to be her bf literally a week ago
is this some kind of cosmic joke,

>>11421384
>occultist whore is telling drones to wash hands

>>11422905
Same kind of shit here. I'm so fucking furious over the comedic timing of someone or something that delights in my suffering, but I'm not sure I really believe in said entity, which makes my rage all the more impotent. So I have nothing to take it out on except my drywall.

>>11421384
I propose we add the following unreliable sources to the general:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/
And the following trustworthy one:
infowars.com

>>11422905
>just got offered a graduate chemistry position at a (small) pharma company
>got good grades to the point where I'm basically guaranteed a first no matter what I get in my final semester
Life was going so damn well. I hope this disease fucks off, screw all you neet cunts who wish for the apocalypse because you're a bunch of losers

how are those biosuits coming along /cvg/?

Truly an impressive phenotype.

damn that nurgle cult, South Korea has more than 2000 cases!

>>11423189
NEET here, but I also want it to fuck off and not kill my parents.

I work in a lab
I can't get infected from fixed & processed tissue can I?

>>11423484
Based cult government starting the apocalypse themselves.
You can't expect G-d to do all the work, bros.

>>11423189
>be on and off NEET for a few years
>finally decide to unfuck my shit
>find a good job, getting along well with everyone, got my first car, almost ready to move out etc...
>this fucking shit starts spreading

I should've just stayed NEET

>>11423563
Happy to hear, Anon! This thing will likely be practically over within 2020!

>>11423545
I refuse to believe you would actually ask this question if you were indeed working in a lab.

>>11423609
I learned about that shit so long ago that I forgot

>>11423545
Not if you're wearing gloves and doesn't touch anything which you'll later touch and then touch face or food. You can spill sample though. I'd say it's pretty unlikely if you are being conscious about protective gear/hand washing.

is this being overblown by the media or something actually of concern? someone educate me pls

>>11423806
Nothing is happening, just trust Rush Limbaugh. Everything is fine. Do not be afraid. Take deep breaths whenever you ride the subway. Remain calm.

>>11423806
Multiple governments are warning people to stockpile food and medicine right now. It's on every continent bar Antarctica.

>>11423806

I think its a real concern.

- Roughly 60 million Americans got swine flu, but swine flu was about a severe as the flu, so it was no big deal.
- Roughly 60 million Americans got h1n1, but it was also about as severe as the flu, so it was no big deal either
- Half of the US got Spanish flu back in the day, and it killed a ton of people.

Coronavirus is spreading far far faster than any recent epidemics like SARs, swine flu, or ebola. It is not contained, there are many people with it in the US. There is no reason to think it isnt going to infect a huge chunk of the united states.

>>11423821

>tfw i know it's the real thing this time

>>11423841
California just had it's 1st case that they can't trace back where it came from
this means it's circulating undetected and is not contained. This means you could be sick right now, this very second, but wouldn't show symptoms for a nearly a month. The US isn't even testing people. It's fucking insane.

Plan for massive epidemic, pray that it's a nothing burger

>>11423856

ive known for a while now that it's circulating and uncontrolled. ive already accepted that part, im just worried about reinfection and it doing some damage. in terms of economy, if its as bad as the 2008 event then i should be fine where iam.

do you know if particulate face mask will help prevent infection?

>>11423860
P2, N95, P100

>>11423856
>extremely infectious even before symptoms show.
>initial symptoms are similar to the yearly flu.
>in the middle of flu season right now.
The absolute worst time for this outbreak to happen; there are probably lots of people showing symptoms of it by now but think they just have the flu.

>>11423861

that good feel when my job provides us with those

Should I quit my retail job temporarily until this all blows over? I mean sure I don't have anything else to land on and the money is going to run out eventually if I don't have a job but I can't keep throwing myself into that kind of environment right?

Then again even if I'm a shut-in with. No job the virus is airborne so I'm still fucked.

>>11422991
>Being so mad at roasties you can't even recognize good advice when it shows up.
Enjoy being sick anon.

>>11421756
98% of the corona virus cases, you just need to stay in bed to "cure" it.

The problem is, 2-5% of the population is a fucking HUGE amount.
That basically means: Kiss one member of your extended family goodby, more if you're unlucky.

>>11423520
As a neet, I think you especially would be terrified of this, since it affects the older individuals the most: That means you'll probably survive, while they'll die, meaning you'll have no way of financial survival.

>>11423520
>NEET

How do you live with yourself being a worthless piece of shit parasite?

>>11421794
Have sex.

>>11423883
I am happy that you get some pleasure out of it.

>>11423856
>The US isn't even testing people.
Because that would make trumpkins look bad, and he wants the economy BIG AND STRONK for his election.

WHO'S GOT THE REAL NUMBERS????

THE NUMBERS MASON

Just do what you can if/when you get sick.
Stay in bed, drink lots of water, get some vitamins and nutrients in, eat some chicken soup, get lots of sleep, and so on. Hopefully you'll overcome it.

>>11423902
There are no "real" numbers.
What? You think China has a "public" and "private" set of numbers? No, they can't diagnose everyone sick, and just disregard a lot of cases because they didn't "directly" die from the virus. They officially died from pneumonia instead.

>>11423902
>WHO'S GOT THE REAL NUMBERS????

trump is hiding them. but don't worry, this'll all be gone by spring

>>11423905

we need some analytical autist to estimate the numbers based on diagnoses and deaths assumed to be due to corona. its gonna take a lot of man hours but its doable.

>>11423885
Okay bitch, you fucking asked for it.

>>11423912

literally me with my tight filipina gf

>>11423903
And if you get pneumonia you'll be dead because there'll be nobody to get you to the hospital when you go under.

>>11423906
as will 2.5% of the population.

I'm calling it, mid march we're gonna see a huge explosion of cases in the USA. We'll call it March Madness.

>>11423939
B-But trump said that the warm weather would cause it to dissapear!

It's spreading in Singapore, which is warm. Prepare for March Madness

>>11423939
>>11423977

M A R C H

>>11423997
Wasn't there an infection in Brazil just yesterday?

Damn man not only do I live in a poor neighborhood (rural poor) but I'm constantly working with the public the chances of me having it already are high.

Worried af just reading that.
Well not everyone dies from it so I guess there's that

There are 650,000 worldwide deaths from influenza every year. We are roughly 2 months into this epidemic (likely little spread first month). Influenza have killed about (650k*60)/365 =~ 100k in this period. This number is larger than the current number of confirmed infections of covid-19. The testing capacity in Hubei was totally blasted. And that is from mainly moderate to severe cases. Most people getting covid-19 doesn't even get a severely ill, many of which may be very close to asymptomatic (1-2 mild symptom for 1-2 days) or totally asymptomatic. In my country they are currently having a few cases of covid-19. They are literally telling people with flu symptoms to stop spamming the emergency telephone lines. They don't have the capacity to test everybody with general flu symptoms although some of them might have covid-19. As the disease conquers new territory, it will take about 20 days from the wave of infections hits to the wave of deaths hits. In this period there are even increased potential for misattribution. So how many of the deaths from covid-19 do you think have been mistaken as deaths from the flu so far? I'd say maybe 2k as an extrenely moderate estimate. So that takes the death numbers up to 5k. Because of all of these hidden number, both in cases of deaths and infections, the current estimates of the mortality likely is a little high. Let's say it is 1%. This yields 5000/0.01=500k infections so far.

>>11421403
kek

>>11422991
>caring about roasties
>not caring about hygiene
Enjoy a long, painful death.

>>11424048
That Chinese doctor who was in his 30s and good health died pretty badly anon. I don't think this is something its safe to brush off as being harmless.

We also have a vaccine for the flu which inhibits its spread by making part of the population have herd immunity, while we have nothing to inhibit the spread of this new virus.

>>11424058
What's the evidence that he was in good health? You can be sickly without it being blatant. Doctors are also especially vulnerable since the profession is really stressful.

Of course, this applies to a large amount of the population so it's dangerous anyway

>>11424058
>That Chinese doctor who was in his 30s and good health died pretty badly anon. I don't think this is something its safe to brush off as being harmless.
1% is 100 times more deadly than the flu. It's far from a calling it "just the flu". Furthermore, I am mainly trying to make an lower bound estimate. I think it is safe to say that we are at 500k infected cumulative.
>We also have a vaccine for the flu which inhibits its spread by making part of the population have herd immunity, while we have nothing to inhibit the spread of this new virus.
Good point!

>>11424063
Than what about all the quarantines and surges in hospital capacity? I don't think China would be rapidly making new hospitals and quarantining whole regions for just a flu.

>>11424058
He was probably a pozzed fag

https://youtu.be/opFCAWZHpzg

Be safe anons.

>>11424058
People keep forgetting that that doctor was a whistleblower, the chinese probably roughed him up real bad before he died

>>11424068
>Than what about all the quarantines and surges in hospital capacity?
It is appropriate for what I just described or something with higher number of infected, higher mortality or both.
>I don't think China would be rapidly making new hospitals and quarantining whole regions for just a flu.
>just a flu
I think 1% is a sensible lower bound mortality. Do I need to repeat that this is AT LEAST 100 times higher mortality than the flu? With this I am saying that it as AT LEAST 100 times more deadly than "just a flu".

>>11424040

everything that anon said has come true so far (check the date) and yes a guy in brazil has been tested positive. we're all in for a world of hurt over the next few years.

>>11424087
except a virus becomes less deadly when they mutate

>>11424090

>>11423879
>HUGE amount.
no it's not you fucking bitch, it won't even come remotely close to making climate change better, honestly kys

>>11423883
viruses are essentially parasite yet we think very highly of them

>tfw couldnt sleep tonight
fuck I wish I was a mindless NPC and didn't read anything about this virus

>>11423890
and he's right, imagine wasting billions testing millions of people for a fucking flu. imagine trying to contain the fucking flu which is impossible, burning hundreds of billions of dollars in the process, scaring away tourists and potential foreign investments because now everybody know that's the country with the plague. that's what's happening to italy right now because of their adamancy in testing everyone; granny and granpa are still dying and the country will revert to third world status by the end of it

>>11424087
>everything
>major italian city

the more i think about it the more likely this could be a result of some chinese/other scientist fucking around with CRISPR technology and releasing it into a populated Chinese animal market. Viral RNA modifying is in its infancy at the moment. It's inevitable that people will create deadly viruses and I'm sure there will be worse to come in the future. Literally anyone can buy a CAS9 kit and they're cheap as hell. Chinese animal markets have been around for centuries, why is the outbreak happening now?

>>11424170
They have their Uigur death camps for that. No need to risk releasing it to the public.

>>11424188
have you never seen twelve monkeys?

>>11424170
>why is the outbreak happening now?
dude they got a new viral epidemic every other decade by now

>>11424164

>being this illiterate

>>11424205

The fact that we have no immunity and no preparation whatsoever and it still only has a 0,2% fatality rate in healthy adults is very encouraging to me
However it's too soon to calculate a realistic fatality rate, it might get higher in a month

>>11424214
Als ob
People are extremely underrating the human body. We're giant colonies of cells, viruses and bacteria, evolved for millions of years, capable of adapting, researching, defeating and then incorporating viruses.
Our own DNA has dead viruses from as long as 450 million years ago. We took them in, they killed us but slowly our cells adapted and incorporated them.
Like 8% of our DNA comes from viruses, and according to research, most of them don't do anything at all, while some ended up beneficial for us.

>>11424214
Italy's death rate is pretty consistent with the Chinese numbers, Korea's is actually lower despite the higher infections, the outlier is Iran, though I've heard they didn't even start testing until after people started dying, I'd say in the end it'll stay 2-3%, which could be concerning if we let it reach spanish flu numbers

I hope that raw bat meat was fucking delicious

>>11424133
wtf does climate change have to do with this?

>>11424214
>However it's too soon to calculate a realistic fatality rate, it might get higher in a month
The median time from infection to emergence of symptoms is estimated at 5 days (range 1-14) The median time from emergence of symptoms to death is 14 day (range 6-41). Adding these numbers together gives the median time from infection to death at 19 days. The ones that have tested positive likely got tested at least 2 days after emergence of symptoms, Thus an estimate for the median time from detection in terms of number to death is 17 days. In China 17 days ago we had 42,638 tested positive for the virus. Today we have 2,788 death in China. That gives an estimate of the fatality rate at 6.5%. This estimate will be constant if number of positively tested is proportional to the number of infected. This is not the case at all. Do this estimate every day from 17 days after the start of the data until today and you'll see that this estimate starts out at over 100% and decreases all the way to 6.5% today. This tells me first and foremost that the testing capacity in China has been totally blasted (they have confirmed this). But now that the spread is slowed down in China and the testing capacity good we will see this number converging to something that is proportional to the actual number. Now, how should we determine this constant? Would it be less than or larger than 1? If this constant is different for the number of deaths and number of infected (highly likely) this wouldn't matter, they would multiply together and become a combined contant of proportionality. But surely you wouldn't set this constant larger than 1? We know that the numbers we are given are too low. In the numbers of infected it likely is at least a factor of 2. Thus this constant is lower than 0.5. Hence, the 3% official estimate some weeks back seem pretty darn good right now, but likely it will seem too high in
>a month

>>11424284
Using your figures, it's not 17 days, but 12:
Infection > death = 19 days
Infection > symptoms = 5 days
Symptoms > positive test result = 2 days (approx.)

So,
Infection (0 days), symptoms (5 days), test result (7 days), death (19 days)
Detection > death = D - (S + T) = 12

>>11424296
Holy crap, you're right! Thank you! So 2788 dead in China today and 70548 positively tested in China 12 days ago gives 4% and then 2%. Since the outbreak has slowed down a lot in China we will get superb numbers in a week or so. The numbers outside of China is increasing more than inside of China right now, so we need to disregard them right now to get this calculation right.

>>11424284
>>11424328
I'm crossboarder who was curious about the virus (not a /pol/ doomsayer, I'm just curious and concerned), what does all this mean for someone who doesn't math for a living?

Did we ever get updated numbers from the Chinese CDC on time until death?

>>11424335
It means this is a big nothingburger, just like swineflu was.

>zoomers not remembering the fear mongering back then, especially when large chunk of the deaths were young healthy people.

>>11424252
it won't make a dent you fucking idiot, billions need to go

>>11424328
Appreciate your evidence-based approach and number crunching, but there is a very important factor here that few outside of /pol/ acknowledge: China's figures, the bulk of our data, are not reliable. This has been the position of happeningfags since the first evidence of Dr. Li Wenliang's having been official sanctioned for talking to colleagues about early cases of the virus. This was supported by potential data leaks out of Taiwan supposedly broadcasting the true figures, as well as the official figures being an order of magnitude short of epidemiological forecasting. It has taken well over a month now, but the press and US CDC are starting to discuss this more openly, such that it shouldn't be considered premature or conspiratorial anymore: even in normal circumstances, China lacks transparency. On-the-ground reporting from a couple days ago* shows a deliberate diminution of the figures. Pointing out the gross inaccuracy of China's official figures should not be considered controversial anymore. And the inaccuracy of data coming out of the epicentre should be accounted for.

*https://www.theepochtimes.com/leaked-documents-reveal-chinas-shandong-province-faked-coronavirus-infection-data-real-numbers-up-to-52-times-higher_3251354.html

>>11424365
>there are even more cases than they let out
so the fatality rate is even lower

>>11424382

>>11424408
Numbers outside of China show that china's numbers are more accurate than you think, hell despite the whole cult think SK shows that a country with far superior health care can deal with the problem and minimize deaths

>>11424408

?? He is right.

Thats how numbers work moron

>>11424486
It's only true if you assume that China's fatality figures are accurate, retard. Why are you trying so hard to minimise this?

>>11423997
>>11424040
I'm not a professional epidemiologist but this doesn't make any sort of sense to me. It is true that when viruses pass on from an animal to humans for the first time they are especially deadly, but they precisely become less deadly (as this one may well have) because killing people like flies doesn't make viruses spread better outside of really crowded conditions (think about how ebola never made it big outside of endemic areas but the flu and pre-vax era measles have very big R0 since they're not very lethal)

Why would the virus go on to infect 100 million more people by killing them?


The rest of the pasta is "bro I know people and they said it's dangerous and the government is hiding it!" post #8464565 since the epidemic started. If there is a real whistleblower out there, the charlatans have sure drowned his credibility out

>>11424552
This is another problem with minimising the virus, and missing crucial information. Viruses with high fatality rates, exactly like you suggested, are much easier to stop - especially since this usually necessitates a prevalence of severe symptoms. Low fatality rates (in conjunction with a high percentage of mild or negligible symptoms, like nCoV at 80%) make transmission much, much easier. Sure, a low fatality rate sounds good on the face of it, but a proportionally lower fatality rate doesn't mean much if it is highly infectious.

>>11424518
>It's only true if you assume that China's fatality figures are accurate
this

You can only say someone died from Coronavirus if they've been tested.
If they find people on the doorstep of death, or are already dead, they're not going to waste a test kit on them. As a BONUS, they won't be added to the official fatality tally because they were never confirmed to have corona.

Oh you think that's what China is doing? This is what America will be doing. It's how Trump administration handled the fatality tally for Puerto Rico during that hurricane.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Maria_death_toll_controversy

If American can do this, you can damn well expect it's standard operating procedure for China.

>>11424568
>infectious
infectitious

>>11424577
Yes that's what i meant to say thanks

>>11424518
>>11424570


I dont trust much about the Chinese statistics, however is an undeniable mathematical fact that if the cases that are not reported are disproportionately not fatal, then it is also true that the fatalities among reported cases overrepresents the fatality rate generally.

>>11424577
>fictitious
Literally every statement in that post is conventional epidemiological wisdom. I didn't think I'd need to provide impartial evidence for what amounts to common sense, but here you go:

>The early detection of pathogens with epidemic potential is of major importance to public health. Most emerging infections result in dead-end “spillover” events in which a pathogen is transmitted from an animal reservoir to a human but is unable to achieve the sustained human-to-human transmission necessary for a full-blown epidemic. It is therefore critical to determine why only some virus infections are efficiently transmitted among humans whereas others are not.
>The variables analyzed were as follows: taxonomic classification; genome length, type, and segmentation; the presence or absence of an outer envelope; recombination frequency; duration of infection; host mortality; and whether or not a virus exhibits vector-borne transmission. This comparative analysis revealed multiple strong associations. In particular, we determined that viruses with low host mortality, that establish long-term chronic infections, and that are nonsegmented, nonenveloped, and, most importantly, not transmitted by vectors were more likely to be transmissible among humans.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4839412/

>>11424593
>if the cases that are not reported are disproportionately not fatal
>if
>I dont trust much about the Chinese statistics

>>11421661
>covid-19
wake up sheeple it's 2020 what's a 2019 virus gonna do

>>11424606
There's 2 possibilities:
Chinks provide the true numbers
Chinks provide numbers higher than the truth to create fear around the world and create more incentives to develop countermeasures quickly

There's no reason for them to under-report the true numbers

>>11424622

> There's no reason for them to under-report the true numbers

How could you be so confident?

I dont understand geo politics. I dont understand rare flukey events in history like this. I dont know what China's motives are, or what their officials think. Hell, I dont even understand chinese culture.

It is completely within reasonable probability that they would have reason to underreport how many people have the virus or have died from it.

So far Russia only has 2 cases. I wonder if they're under reporting.

I bet they have more than China at this point and simply aren't reporting any cause 3.6 roentgen

>>11421661
Go back to /pol/

>>11424675
It's a weak play to accuse people of your own faults here. You go back to /pol/, obvious /pol/tard, and stay there. We only care about facts here.

>>11423997
Take your meds

>>11424622
>>11424660
I can think of at least 2 reasons for China to under-report the numers:
1. China`s economy depends hugely on the global market and its perception of risk. Check out how the stock markets from all over the world have been performing this last week and month. Economists are already fearing a recession in the first quarter, and China`s economy has been hit really bad so far. Releasing the true numbers, especially at this stage, could cause mass hysteria and a withdrawal of investments and capital from China, which could be catastrophic for them.
2. The Chinese Communist Party, much like the USSR, relies heavily on its perception of strength to keep its citizens in line and to the rest of the world turn a blind eye to its wrongdoings. The construction of those two hospitals in Wuhan was in great part a demonstration of power. So it`s in the best interest of the CCP to keep the numbers low, to indicate that they are managing the crisis. Otherwise they could have not only an economic problem, but a political one as well to deal with. If someone leaks documents to the chinese people proving that the Party has been hiding the true numbers, there could be riots on the streets and demands for Xi Jingping (and even the CCP) to step down, which they absolutely do not want.

Of course this is all just speculation, but I believe these 2 reasons could explain a possible under-report of the real number of cases. More evidence is required to affirm that anyone of those reasons is correct.

>>11424552

>Why would the virus go on to infect 100 million more people by killing them?

There were two waves of the spanish flu, and the second wave was more deadly. It is theorized that the second wave was more deadly because it evolved in the dirty unhygenic environments caused by the first wave.

The virus would want to become more deadly so it can use your bodily resources to reproduce faster. Usually this isnt the most important thing evolutionarily, because in a regular society, really sick people die or get quarantined, and then the virus doesnt spread anymore after that. But if you have something crazy, like, the trenches of WWI, or tons and tons of people lined up in hospital beds, it becomes less beneficial to cause mild symptoms, because it doesnt help to go under the radar. It either doesnt help you go under the radar for two possible reason:

- things are so desperate that people with mild symptoms have buckle down and do what they need to do anyway, like feed their family, or go fight in the way
- everyone is so obviously sick that there is no benefit in hiding it.

Brainlet who plays plague.inc here. Does the temperature and climate of the region really affect the virus?

>>11424622
No, there's four possibilities: 1) figures inaccurate, skewed by underreporting, 2) figures inaccurate, skewed by over-reporting, 3) figures inaccurate, not skewed by impartiality but predicated on unreliable data, and 4) figures accurate, not skewed by impartiality and predicated on reliable, definitive data.

(4) is essentially impossible given the asymptomatic spread and testing policies in place (e.g. the UK only extended testing to those showing ILI symptoms a couple days ago. Previously, people were only tested having visited an epicentre). In China's case, epidemiologists estimate that as many as 2/3rds of infected people on outbound flights from Wuhan were missed. It is simply impossible to have real-time accurate data on a highly-transmissible infection unless it is contained. Today's confirmed cases are an indication of the infection's historical transmission success (and can be anywhere from 2 to 14 days behind). Today's fatality statistics are an indication of the virus' fatality rate almost 20 days ago (given that it takes about that long for the infection to prove fatal from t = 0).

I am inclined to believe that (3) is off the table. I have already given several reasons to doubt the reliability of China's official figures.

You suggest that over-reporting is one of only two possibilities, but I simply can't think of a single compelling reason to suspect that (2) is likely. It's unreasonable supposing that China over-stated the infection rates to incentivise countermeasures: again, China officially sanctioned Dr. Li Wenliang for discussing the (then) nascent infection with colleagues; they permitted massive Lunar New Year festivities to go ahead in the full knowledge of a potential outbreak, unlike Switzerland who have sensibly prohibited large events.

>There's no reason for them to under-report the true numbers
There are countless geopolitical, social, and economic reasons for their doing exactly that. (1) is probable, given the evidence.

>>11423821
It isn't spreading faster than the SRAS. The average number of person an infectee can infect is only superior by 1 to the flu. The death rate so far is also really fucking low.

>>11424774

You are really clueless.

Over the course of almost a year, SARS infected 8,000 people.

We are 2 months in, and we are at 80,000. Ten times more.

So, obviously it is spreading faster.

> The death rate so far is also really fucking low.

1%. Possibily a little less. Far higher than the flu. 1% of a ton of people is still a lot of people.

>>11424774
It emphatically has spread faster than SARS. Where do you get the confidence to make such patently untrue assertions?

>The average number of person an infectee can infect is only superior by 1 to the flu
Would love to see a source for that. But, even assuming that it is true, influenza is estimated to effect between 5-15% of the global population annually*. Why are you so dismissive of an infection that, according your own info, is MORE transmissive than the flu, is severe in 20% of cases, and fatal in anywhere between 2 and 6 percent of cases (based on incomplete data of a quickly-changing situation)?

>The death rate so far is also really fucking low
It's like you're being wilfully ignorant of inconvenient information. As I said in >>11424568, a low fatality is not a good thing. In fact, a low fatality rate is characteristic of highly transmissible viruses. It may seem counterintuitive to you, but a low fatality rate can in fact result in higher absolute fatalities, and should not be dismissed.

*https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5120824/

>>11424764
Not that anon but
>they permitted massive Lunar New Year festivities to go ahead in the full knowledge of a potential outbreak, unlike Switzerland who have sensibly prohibited large events.
At that time they didn't know that human to human transmission is possible. As soon as shit went bad they tried every extreme measures to contain the virus.

>>11424826
Unfortunately removereddit didn't work for me, but here's the post:
https://reddit.com/r/AmItheAsshole/comments/farp3i/aita_for_mentioning_about_the_inappropriate_stuff/

>>11424880
I meant removeddit. Sorry, I don't use reddit.

>>11424847
No, it was sequenced and identified as as belonging to the coronavirus group (Jan 10th) ahead of the festivities (Jan 18th*). The complete negligence shown in allowing them to go ahead has, so far, cost thousands of people their lives. Admittedly, this might be being a somewhat harsh, but I would be much more understanding if the Chinese government hadn't worked so hard to downplay and outright suppress everything, as they continue to today. You remember that one day where the cases rose by almost 15k (about 5 times as much as any of the other days with high infection rates)? China re-evaluated their criteria for confirmed cases in a *single* province, changing their diagnostic methodology in Hubei alone. It has been known for a month now that nucleic testing is a huge bottleneck in diagnosing Coronavirus, as samples need to be collected and shipped to labs or sent to wards with specialist equipment for sequencing. They have not reported extending this criteria to other provinces.

>As soon as shit went bad they tried every extreme measures to contain the virus.
Yes, they have taken extreme measures. Their quarantine policies extended to over 56 million people, last I read. This, however, does not take away from their evidential ineptitude and lack of transparency.

*https://www.ft.com/content/fa83463a-4737-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

>>11424347
So why haven't you gone yet, hypocrite

>>11425125
good immune system

Can be the Keto diet the solution?
>The 2019 Wuhan outbreak is caused by the bacteria Prevotella, which is aided by the coronavirus, possibly to adhere to epithelial cells - Prevotella is present in huge amounts in patients from both China and Hong Kong.
http://archive.is/mcd2a
>Elimination of carbohydrates from diet triggered an immediate decrease in Prevotella, compensated by the increase in all other bacteria, and higher fluctuations in the community composition
https://www.uv.es/symbiosis/pdfs/Durban2013.pdf

>>11424347
K, here's the issue. Everyone here is of the view that people living is a good thing, because we're not sociopaths that want to see the world' population genocided.

You're a sociopath that actively wants a huge chunk of humanity killed off because "LOL Won't be me!" and doesn't realize the economic and social effect that will have on the world.

What's the incubation period?

>>11425253
>people living is a good thing
>don't want to see a huge chunk of humanity killed off
>keeps perpetrating global warming and climate change which will inevitably lead to the death of millions if not billions of people, the poorest and weakest in the world nonetheless
your world views are naive and inconsistent in a clear case of cognitive dissonance you react aggressively when confronted with that
>goes on to blow his own horn about how much of a good humanity loving samaritan he is and everyone else is an evil racist all while endorsing the future starvation of the poorest people in the planet
and the psychopathy rears its ugly head

>>11425264
Around 17 days or something. And you're contagious during that time as well.

>>11424365
As far as I know, China has taken this matter into a conquest of pride, prioritizing their image and status as one of the globe's bigger countries. Because of this they not only have given us incomplete data, but also have rejected help from outside countries in order to combat this situation. With this in mind, I can see how the situation might be worse than we imagine if even they have begun to confess to their bullshit somewhat.

Are these symptoms of corona?

>>11425824
No, those are red smudges over an anatomic sketch.

>>11425832
>phlegm
>coughing
>sneezing
>runny nose
>lower back pain
>spotty headache now on both sides
>chest pain under sternum, just an overall empty feeling

>>11425841
>phlegm
>coughing
>sneezing
>runny nose
URI and/or allergy
>lower back pain
Probably shitty posture
>spotty headache now on both sides
Drink more fluids
>chest pain under sternum
Describe it
>an overall empty feeling
What do you mean by this

>>11425824

Youre dead kid.

>>11425858
d-kid

>>11425850
The empty feeling is as if you were to hold your breath, not quite like a punch, I'm having no trouble breathing and no fever
The pain around, below the sternum feels like pressure, light pressure
>>11425858
Nah dont think so

>>11421384
He needs a cure for the baldo virus

>>11423912
Damn sauce me m8

>>11425875
You on any medications, either over the counter or prescription?

>>11425951
No, why?

I have a feeling this will go one of two ways
1. A few thousand people outside china die and things go back to the status quo
2. A few hundred or less die and companies reevaluate their investment in China
I doubt we'll be seeing Spanish Flu numbers, even if it's more infectious, our means of containment are far better then they were a century ago

>>11425976
Well, then that makes this simple. You're suffering from hysteria.

>>11421756
Sure, if you like drinking cold piss

>>11425986
Sure hope so

>>11425982
The foremost experts and best mathematical projections show around 60% of people on earth getting infected, what are you on about?

>>11425994
The same "experts" and "calclulations" that said that infections would be in the millions by last week I presume?

Swine flu started out pretty slow in terms of death then climbed up exponentially, right? So why don't the people here take this more seriously and not treat it like the flu? This is something new that has no vaccine yet.

>>11426038
It's just science. Nobody can know anything for certain right now, but we can make estimates based on the best science available.
https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1228373884027592704

>>11426063
>What could make this scenario not happen? 1) conditions in Wuhan could be so different in some fundamental way from elsewhere that we are mistaken in expecting further outbreaks to have basic aspects in common.

>>11426080
Grasping at straws I see. Good luck with that.

>>11426063
>twitter.com
back to twitter general with you >>>/pol/

>>11426089
Yeah because China's lack of proper containment for a full month has nothing to do with how bad it is over there

>>11426080
Are you saying that conditions in Wuhan are sufficiently unique enough to dismiss the occurrence of an outbreak anywhere else in the world?

>>11425316
kek, try harder

>>11425875
What province are you from? Can you film the corpses outside your window?

>>11425994
sauce, need to check it by myself. Extra points if you link to a paper/scientific journal

>>11426140
Besides statements from people like Professor Neil Ferguson and Professor Marc Lipsitch (which I already linked here >>11426063 and likely others), the best I can do is give the likely R0 based on this review
>https://academic.oup.com/jtm/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jtm/taaa021/5735319
Together with these 4 newer studies which weren't included
>https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.29.20019547v2
>https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1
>https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.10.20021675v2
>https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022434v1

And using this model with seeding events around Mid-January as suggested by Professor Trevor Bedford
>https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2760912/reporting-epidemic-growth-reproduction-numbers-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov

We should see the actual results around late March.

>>11425982
I don't think it will stop anytime soon.

>our means of containment are far better then they were a century ago
They may be, but not if they're not employed early and drastically. Near where I live in Germany we have over 30 confirmed cases now. They don't know the source (patient 0) and probably won't find it. Positively tested people are just sent home to quarantine themselves for 14 days. And they don't even try to identify all direct contact persons anymore as there are way to many. Additionally they will not quarantine any larger areas - "PeOplE wILL NoT AcCePpT iT, LiFe MuSt gO oN". At least they closed the schools, but I doubt that will be enough to contain it.
I also don't think it will be as bad as the spanish flu. But it probably will be at least as bad as a very bad flu wave.

>>11424211

>anime girl

opinion discarded

>>11425982
>our means of containment are far better then they were a century ago
Too bad we can barely tell who's infected making all those fancy modern means of containment... Not worthless, but largely ineffective.

>>11424902
Their initial response was terrible, but when Zhong Nanshan got involved, he announced h2h transmission, and things started to get better. Right now China is doing fine (they're starting to go back to work so who know the future). The reason I think so because there are lots of country that haven't ban traveling from China, but yet, all their new cases come from Italy, Iran, South Korea,... Which is a good news because that means containment measures are still working.

>>11424774
Braindead. Latest estimate of R0 is 4-5.

>>11426360
Upper bound of flu R0 is like 3.1 or so but usually averages to 1.3.

>>11426128
you'll get your wish and millions of brown people will die, you have much more in common with /pol/tards than you fooled yourself into believing

>>11426226
china's chart looked exactly the same a few weeks ago

>>11426426
I don't get what you're saying. Are you an AI?

>>11425264
>>11425386
The mean is 5.5 days but the doomers are trying to meme a 14, then, 21, then 42-day tail onto that.

>>11426439
Yes, in Italy, South Korea and likely Iran the growth is comparable to the growth in Hubei when numbers were as low as this. I am especially concerned about northern Europe because of the much colder climate than in China the virus survives for much longer. Italy is fairly warm part of EU, thus it should spread even worse in the north. The fact that it is spreading so well in the sparsely populated and cleanly Italy (compared to China) is pretty alarming to me. Doesn't make it better that EU countries seem to be very complacent about the whole thing.

>>11426439
China actually did something to contain it.
>No Schengen area restrictions
>Actual pre-emptive measures.

All Eurofags do is think about the economy and they say that masks do not work and they're even WORSE than not wearing one. It's retarded.

>>11424337
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31994742-updated-understanding-of-the-outbreak-of-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-in-wuhan-china/

>>11421384
I heard you basically can get reinfected forever and we're fucked. Is that even possible?

>>11426496
No.

>>11426496
If you're old, and live in some place like China which is heavily polluted, a reinfection isn't impossible

>>11426508
Good, because I've been dragging a LONG FUCKING COLD for weeks. I was sick with fever for 2 days a month ago, then it was my throat, then I felt tired. Then I got my respiratory system a bit sore. Then I got 100% better. This happened a week ago. Today the sore throat returned. No breathing problems tho.

>>11426532
Uh, yeah. You should see a doctor if a cold persists for that long.

>>11426537
Its fairly common, many people are perpetually sick in the winter. You would have seen them die a century ago at 16 years old of some respiratory infection. The idea that you survive most illnesses is an unfounded novelty and will leave us very soon.

So is this shit in oregon or not

>>11426537
I did. She said "lol you're ok" which she instantly guessed with her doctor powers because she didn't even look at me.

>>11426226
What's the point of a quarantine when you can't enforce. No one is going to want to stay inside their home for 14 plus days. What if they leave? Shoot them dead like north koreans?

>>11426560

Containment isnt the same as quarantine. You can stop travel between places, for example.

But, yes you absolutely can enforce it. If people violate it, you put them in jail, or something like that.

I am so tired of "Oh you want to enforce X? How are you gonna do it? SHOOT THEM?" No, you do what we normally do when enforcing anything. Fines, jail, coercion of some sort, but generally things far better than the absolute maximum punishment of automatic execution.

I was both unclear and wrong in one of my calculations here >>11424284 , so here it is corrected and in full.

Let [math] \alpha_i [/math] be the ratio between recorded infections [math] I_r [/math] and actual infections [math] I_a [/math]
[eqn] \alpha_i = \frac{I_r}{I_a} \iff I_a = \frac{I_r}{\alpha_i}.[/eqn]
Let [math] \alpha_d [/math] be the ratio between recorded deaths [math] D_r [/math] and actual deaths [math] D_a [/math]
[eqn] \alpha_d = \frac{D_r}{D_a} \iff D_a = \frac{D_r}{\alpha_d} .[/eqn]
Let [math] r [/math] be the recorded mortality rate and [math] R [/math] the actual mortality rate, then
[eqn] R = \frac{D_a}{I_a} = \frac{ \frac{D_r}{\alpha_d}}{ \frac{I_r}{\alpha_i}} = \frac{\alpha_i D_r}{\alpha_d I_r} = C \frac{D_r}{I_r} = Cr[/eqn]
for [math] C = \frac{\alpha_i}{\alpha_d} [/math] . We want to estimate [math] R [/math] , thus we must try to determine [math] r [/math] and [math] C [/math] . Let us assum
e that we have an estimate for [math] r [/math] by method outlined here >>11424284 >>11424296 >>11424328 and let us try to estimate [math] C [/math]. Assume [math] 0 < \alpha_i < \alpha_d < 1 [/math] . I think this is reasonable as it is easier to record deaths than merely infec
tions. This means that
[eqn] 0 < C < 1 [/eqn] thus any recorded mortality rate has to be higher than the actual mortality rate.

>>11426637
But by how much?

>>11424365
That is very interesting, thank you! So this means that in my calculation we set [math]\alpha_i = 1/52[/math]. Do you have a suggestion for [math]\alpha_d[/math]?

>>11426644

Friendly reminder that governments of the world could tell people to stay home for a month, and this shit would be stopped in its tracks.

They won't do it though because of "muh markets" and tens of millions will die as a result.

How does this make you feel, /sci/?

>>11426724
the rioting from the market crash caused by literally nobody going to work would be worse

>>11421661
/pol/ has always been smarter than /sci/. go there if you want all that in our cvg threads. /pol/ is hyper-aware and hyper-paranoid and hyper-fearful. these combinations ensure we get the information first.

Wow. After reading this thread...Sci is retarded. Why do you idiots larp as smart? Oh well you gotta start somewhere I guess. I was probably just as dumb when I was 15.
...Here have a study.

...and another

....and another. i have more but the posting speed is too slow here. you can thank /pol/ for the actually useful information unlike here. but stay out we're full.

>>11426771
>>11426775
>>11426779
>They found that the fatality rate is between 2% and 4% in Wuhan, and 0.7% outside Wuhan.
once again, anon is a retard
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---24-february-2020

>>11426785
the death rate of closed cases is currently 7%. if you believe the WHO then there's no hope for you.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

>>11426779
If you have a shitty immune system (which is incredibly likely given it's China), a reinfection isn't uncommon
>>11426787
heart failure was a side effect of the antivirals that they were pumping into their patients

>>11426488
>sparsely populated and cleanly Italy
Does that part of Italy do the kissing thing? Seems like a pretty easy way to spread viruses.

>>11426489
If the masks didn't work, it would be worse than not wearing one. If someone thinks they're immune, they'll take risks.

>>11426824
The thing with italy is that it's mostly spreading in two areas

>>11424450
SK has barely had it going on for long, wait about a month for a full synopsis of it.

The virus can incubate for a couple of weeks before it goes symptomatic, we won't know the full damage until about another month goes by.

>>11426426
I doubt it'll spread much in africa. They're not in as urban as first world places.

>>11426791
Why do you say that chinese people have bad immune systems? The immune system isn't influenced by economic factors.

>>11426858

How urban a place is isnt a strong factor. The spanish flu infected over half of the US 100 years ago when all of society was much less dense.

>>11426865
Pollution

>>11426865

I dont think Chinese people are any more or less immune, but obvious Chinese people are different in more ways than just economic factors: they are Chinese. They are genetically different.

>>11426873
That hurts your health, but it doesn't outright alter your immune system. when put into a hospital environment, which most of the infected were, the effects of outside pollution should quickly cease to be a factor.

>>11426881
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/10/191002144257.htm

>>11426762
>>11426771
>>11426775
>>11426779
This is consistent with many posts in this thread. /sci/ got the same results as those clunky statistical methods, but in 5 minutes with some simple middle school algebra without even looking at retarded studies by medical mathlets. /pol/ has been screaming >10% mortality for the last month, while /sci/ has been largely calm, collected and essentially correct.

So anything that can be done to prepare or treat one with corona virus, or should i just kiss all my 70 year old relatives goodby this year?

Serious here, both of my parents both turned 70 and it sounds like if you don't have a great immune system its pneumonia and death for you.
And i have only half a spleen myself, and though I don't get sick much (Ironically the only person at my job who DOESN'T) I'm worried about not having a AAA immune system that can survive this.

>>11426779
>>11426787

>>11426556
Yes, it's in Oregon an elementary school teacher in Salem, OR

>>11427057
Do they go out much? If so tell them to wash their hands regularly and to not touch their face, the best you can do right now if you're elderly is to try to not catch it at least until they start coming up with treatments

>>11424832

how do you explain this graph compared to the R_0 table on this page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

R_0 for SARS and COVID have similar ranges

Is is true that masks only really do something if you are already infected (making it harder for others to catch it)?

>>11426488
germany is only interested in exporting their shit at any cost, i wouldn't put huge underreporting past these ugly barbarians

Is /sci/ still in "just the flu" mode or did they wake up by now

>>11426558
she realized you're a hypochondriac faggot

>>11426762
>hyper-aware
hyper self-unaware

>>11426724
>markets crash
>no money to afford basic shit or medical treatments
>millions die but now can experience the thrill of a great depression

>>11426779
>a headline passes as a study on /pol/
that's why you'll always be 80 iq

Is it safe to order pizza and takeout?
Or could the virus get on the pizza from the cook?

>>11426858
i was talking about global warming you idiot. try to keep up

>>11427132
the pizzaman won't put his cock in your pizza, the delivery boy might if he's got a good reason

>>11426724
Let's say everyone stays home for 3 weeks:

>no food harvesting/distribution = anyone without a 3 week supply of food at home starves
>nobody at the purification/sewage plants = no sewage or running water
>nobody at the power plants = no electricity in a few days as systems automatically shut down to protect themselves
>no electricity = no internet, hospitals are crippled, stored food spoils

Any country that tried to do that would literally fall apart in a matter of weeks. Remember when the US Federal Government "shut down" this time last year? That was only "non-essential" agencies that hadn't yet been funded, but had very noticeable knock-on effects.

Here's my hot take: We should do absolutely nothing about the COVID-19, because it rarely kills healthy individuals. This is a perfect opportunity to get rid of a ton of old-ass boomers.

>>11427132
depends, you probably won't have a problem with pizza, they take out of the oven and then put it in an insulated bag, so it's be way too hot for the virus to survive

>>11427139
>Here's my hot take: We should do absolutely nothing about the COVID-19, because it rarely kills healthy individuals. This is a perfect opportunity to get rid of a ton of old-ass boomers.
this would increase wealth per capita and free up tons of resources currently being used to keep these people alive at any cost.
if the >MUH EBIL MARKET, WESTERN GOVERNMENTS ONLY CARE ABOUT MUH MARKETS FUGGIN KIKES fags were right this is what would be implemented, instead western governments try to balance opposite interests

>>11427081
R0 is simply a measure of transmissibility, the no. of expected cases resulting from a single case. "nCoV has spread faster than SARS" is a comparative statement considering the *rate* of transmissibility. They aren't the same thing: two viruses can have identical R0 values but variable rates of infection.

>>11427139
Are all your friends and relatives healthy young people?

>>11427159
I would absolutely be heartbroken to lose a family member or friend to this pandemic, but I also accept that disease is part of the human condition, and sometimes nature says it's a person's time to go.

>>11427139
Grandma: I'm in intensive care with a high fever and pneumonia on top of my chronic health problems.
>it better be fucking terminal

>>11426771
>>11426775
>>11426779
Two misunderstood, not peer reviewed papers and a screen shot of a headline. Do /pol/tards actually think they are smart?

>>11427222
not him, but how is the reinfection one misunderstood?

>>11427224
See >>11426785
Also if I cited a paper that hasn't been peer reviewed in any of my work I get shot down hard

>>11425253
Not who you're replying to but, I am of the opinion that all lives are significant and people have a right to thrive, but you have to be realistic about an appropriate population. Huge populations of people in China and India has led to egregious and unavoidable human rights abuses. I certainly don't want people to die, but it is incredibly obvious that the world is overpopulated considering current technology and infrastructure.

Time-adjusted mortality rates with delay=12 days

Day Mortality
65 57.00%
66 24.43%
67 25.48%
68 15.63%
69 10.61%
70 11.38%
71 4.96%
72 6.64%
73 6.21%
74 4.89%
75 12.09%
76 0.50%
77 5.06%
78 4.39%
79 2.72%
80 2.65%
81 4.32%
82 3.40%
83 4.45%
84 3.65%
85 3.92%
86 7.42%
87 3.90%
88 2.60%
89 1.93%
90 3.93%

>>11427125
Nigger I've been treating myself for years whenever I got something (just diet and exercise fixes most of your shit, no self-medicating) because most doctors are useless cunts with a huge ego and less than basic knowledge.

I used to believe doctors knew their stuff because I never got sick beyond a flu. Then
I developed spine issues that caused a myriad of symptoms and a lot of pain, and after countless expensive tests their only answer was mind numbing pills. After three months of "treatment" and no results they told me i'd have to take those pills for life.
I told them to fuck off and I fixed it on my own. Saved time, money and health.
And I dodged a bullet. I come across a lot of people complaining about the same issues I used to have, still taking these same meds after years, but to no avail because the truth is their docs don't know how to fix shit. These people were depressed, tired and desperate, addicted to meds which they admitted didn't do anything.

Today I have respiratory issues and my lungs burn when I breathe. Two days ago I was "fine"and was sent home. I got this virus in Shandong, I thought it was nothing and 99% of it got cured. I'm used to treat things myself, but it grinds my hears that I have to treat myself when we have "professionals". The truth is that modern medicine knows how to fix many issues, but for many others we are still "leeches and wolfsbane" tier.

>>11427331
she got you figured out bud.

>>11427354
yes I'm sure she's very clever. I still had to read stuff for years until I figured out how to fix my problem

>>11424736
Iran is one of the most impacted country. There's confirmed cases in Brazil. Make your own conclusions.

>>11427400
>iran is warm
m
o
r
o
n

>>11427435
Brazil is tho. let's hope it doesn't fuck them up

>>11424570
South Korea tested more people in one day than the US has tested in the last 3 months since the outbreak.
This whole "The Chinese numbers are wrong" completely ignores the fucking debacle in the US where severely Ill people aren't even being tested and the CDC sent out faulty kits for months. Why the fuck does anyone believe the US govt is telling the truth?

>>11425253
The world would unironically be a better place with half as many humans on it.
We are undeniably destroying and pillaging all of Earth's resources at an unsustainable rate

>>11427457
>The world would unironically be a better place with half as many humans on it.
Sure thing, Thanos. Now go back playing with your colored stones ok ?

>>11426080
>>11426089
it's not exactly grasping at straws, what he just quoted could be taken either way - the virus could be milder elsewhere, but it could actually be even worse as well

Untraceable person to person transmission has been confirmed in the USA! It's here! Now in about two weeks, we should expect to see a lot more cases as the infectees become symptomatic. Also US is short on test kits.

>>11427632
>living in amerimutt
nobody gives a shit about your retarded continent

>>11427632
now you will finally truly enjoy not giving basic healthcare options to your poor underclass

>>11427105
This is true for the typical cheap surgeon mask that people go for, but it depends on the mask. Also, if you frequently touch the mask you'll likely be spreading the virus with your hands too.

>>11427331
>>11427371
You annoying cunt. You're like those old "nvm fixed it" forum posts, leaving out the most important detail.

Could wearing some layers of fabric over my mouth substitute as a mask? maybe with some facial tissues in between?

>>11421384

reinfection deniers, where is your god now?

>>11421756
In whites it has a mortality rate of less than 0.1%

>>11423902
Any real data is conservative at best given the lack of testing kits.

>>11423910
Not if the data is lacking, friend.

>>11427717
i thought we had hundreds of those already

>>11424552
>It is true that when viruses pass on from an animal to humans for the first time they are especially deadly
Not necessarily.

>>11424345
No, it doesn't.

Reminder that because burgerland doesn't have national healthcare (like all 1st world countries do), people will avoid going to the doctor to be diagnosed (why pay? just shrug it off and lie to yourself that it's just the flu), and poor people (without coverage) especially will not be able to afford the coronavirus tests, let alone the wages they will miss from being in quarantine for 2-3 weeks. So people won't go to the doctor, and the virus will spread like crazy.

Well done burgers with your private healthcare. You sure love lining the pockets of insurance companies and executives who want to pocket the profit for their $1m home now, don't you?

>>11427801
their homes are worth a lot more than 1m

>>11427801

china doesnt have national healthcare either

>>11427807
your point being?

>>11424826
Lol

>>11427801
why would you care tho? it's their country, who cares if their people are too stupid to vote for that change

>>11425841
You anticipated one would infer that from your image? Might wanna add autism to that list of symptoms gamer

>>11426439
>early epidemic growth is exponential
Incredible observation

>>11426881
lol

>>11427061
go back

>>11427801
>without free healthcare, people won't go to the doctors
>without free food, people will avoid eating
>without free transport, people will avoid travelling
>being this retarded

>>11427801

have you actually used national care? health checks are rationed. You only get a test after getting a doctor's permission.

>>11424058
>chink
>good health

pick one

>>11427875
Even without flags, I can smell insecure Amerilards. Funny that Russia probably hates China more and for better reasons.

>>11427898
incorrect

>>11427901
straya belongs to America

>>11427801
burgers do that because they have no working rights i think, and right now coronavirus = fired immediatly
still 3rd world but for different reasons

>>11427866
just call the number and book an appointment
>>11427864
nice strawman, conveniently leaving out the fact that i specifically talked about poor people spreading the virus around like crazy, not all people
not everyone is making $120k in silicon valley writing meme websites with cancerscript frameworks

>coronavirus in state now
FUCK

>>11428097
shut the fuck up mutt, no one gives a shit about your ignorant perspective

So, this disease seems to kill the elder and the unhealthy. Those who take care of themselves, and maybe are even athletic (as in, an actual athlete) will survive, but I assume we won't leave this crisis unscathed. What's the damage this shit does on survivors? I really don't want to depend on machines to live the rest of my long life.

>>11428238
Your grandparents/parents will die. That's the damage to the survivors.

>>11428238
A depression the likes that has not been seen in a century and massive geopolitical change around the globe.

>>11428259
you mean f-fascism?

>>11428258
They've lived their lifes to the fullest, and most are already dead anyway. I still have mine to live. It's selfish, I know, but they would think the same.
>>11428259
Yeah, this is really bad, actually.

The global warming problem is solved, /sci/ can stop bitching about it now

>>11428050
The average american makes around 30k a year, which places them in the top 10% of the wealthiest people on Earth.

>>11428304
what is your point?

>>11428289
>daily mail
if this is true, BASED
if only it could go on indefinitely

>>11428317
His point is that they can afford many things.

If they have income at all they probably have healthcare. (Almost everyone in the US has healthcare).

>>11428338
let me quote you my original post
>and poor people (without coverage) especially will not be able to afford the coronavirus tests, let alone the wages they will miss from being in quarantine for 2-3 weeks.
oh and also, the average is brought up to 30k by a couple of billionaires hoarding everything, it's not representative of the median wage

>>11428338
>implying your insurance will pay shit
they'll probably come up with something like "obviously insurance doesn't cover extraordinary events, force majeure etc"

>>11428050
>conveniently leaving out the fact that i specifically talked about poor people
.....Dude, I was just commenting on what you said before mentioning poor people:
>because burgerland doesn't have national healthcare (like all 1st world countries do), people will avoid going to the doctor
It is very retarded* suggesting I made a straw man argument when all I did was restate your own opinion:
>without free healthcare, people won't go to the doctors

*pls no 'ad hominem' accusations I beg you

>>11427073
Unfortunately they babysit my brother and sisters kids 2-3 times per week because they basically dump them on them with a "Fuck it I'm too busy to raise my kids by myself!" kind of logic.

So quarantining themselves is basically out of the question because they'll be browbeat into caring for the kids alot, and they'll be definite spreaders. (They already got sick twice this year from the kids being sick and dumped on them to care for)

>>11427807
Yes they do, in theory anyways

So it looks like China is ironically going to be free of the virus soon while its the rest of the world that will get ravaged by it.
I doubt china will get it spread back into their country because they're good at closing borders due to being a fascist government.
Am i wrong in my view that china is probably going to weather this better than the west, or anyone got data showing its spreading outside their quarantines in their country?

>>11428587
You are basing all that on numbers publicly released by the Chinese government.

Again, you are basing all that on numbers publicly released by the Chinese government.

>>11428343

GDP per capita is like 60k. The average is brought up to a lot higher than 30k by wealth concentrated at the top.

>>11428364
Cry more. Americans consume more healthcare than everyone else on the planet. An obvious and big contradiction to this notion that insurance companies dont pay up what they owe.

>>11422905
Might she propose today?

>>11428587
China deliberately conceals its numbers of infected and dead, but it does seem to be leveling off over there.

>>11428587
China will certainly weather this better than the west, but I highly suspect their bottleneck is testing/confirming
but then again, the Chinese gov't has a pretty bad history of accurately reporting disease stats, notably with SARS and H1N1

American specifically is going to hit horrifically hard

>>11428335
>if only

Anon I...

The Pulse:Wuhan lockdown & Hong Kong people stranded in Wuhan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5ZtvROhFUY

>>11428873
Honestly, this could be a big push against the republicans and towards a european/canadian style health system if things go pear shaped.
An outbreak will really show the issues with the US health system and enrage alot of people.

Its hard to tell people that a dead relative is a hoax, and the hospitals being pushed past capacity will point out how they're run for corporate's profits, not the benefits of its infirm inside of it.

Is this a good or bad time to apply for a healthcare related job? I assume that help may be needed so a weak work history might be overlooked at the moment but also that things are so hectic in healthcare they wouldn't have the time or patience to train new employees. I want to apply as some low level lab technician

>>11429125
You don't need much training to sling bodies.

Actually, with obese boomers you might.

>>11428259
It will results in global shift anon. SEA/India will become much more a production center, maybe even Africa. The west wins again.

>>11427065
It's not salem, it's lake oswego, though they are about 40 miles apart so it's still close.

>>11425841
>>11425824
This guy here, adding the following symptoms
>intense random burning eye sensation
>pain along the ear and behind

So I missed the beginning of this, is corona from a bioweapons lab or it came from people eating undercooked bats in soup?

>>11427065
I'm predicting a gigantic explosion once it reaches the unclean dirty faggot mass that is portland

>>11429078
>towards a european/canadian style health system if things go pear shaped.
yeah, I suspect this pandemic is going to lead to that in the US, the current US system is just going to shatter completely

>>11429443
Most likely the latter

>>11427859

dilate

>>11423915

literally me with your tight filipina gf

>>11429443
There were tens of thousands of wet markets across China before the ban. But China's only BSL-4 lab is right in the middle of Wuhan, very close to the market where it supposedly originated.

>>11429452
It'll sweep like wildfire through the homeless camps downtown.

>>11421384
If you really want to know more about coronavirus...
>>11429999

Tests conducted for COVIID-19
South Korea: ~66,000
US: ~500
ITT: 50 Insecure assblasted Ameritards going on about how their healthcare system isn't fucked.

>>11430110
China: 320,000 people in Guangdong (population of 113 million people) over a three-week period
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

>>11430110
>ITT: 50 Insecure assblasted Ameritards going on about how their healthcare system isn't fucked.
most people who catch it only get at worst moderate cold symptoms, some may not even go to a hospital due to how mild it would be, yeah, about 20% are hospitalized, but that's not nearly enough to overwhelm hospitals

I've gotten a cough since last week
It's gotten worse, but not other symptoms are showing besides a runny nose.

I got it a week after the first case came to my state.
Might be fucked. Idk.

Wait, doesnt pic related suggest the mortality rate is 7%? Not the 1% we have been mentioning

>>11430219
It's gotta be a placebo from me worrying so much because now I'm having sharp chest pains.

>>11430136
2% death rate.
TWO. PERCENT.
That's a fucking lot.

>>11430294
You're right, it is a lot for a fast spreading disease, but hospitals would only be overwhelmed if you assume all 20% are confined to a single area

>>11430234
The 7% is based on recovered/deaths while the 1% is based on active cases/ deaths

>>11424090
Not when it manages to overwhelm the healthcare system and no longer has to worry about hiding.

>>11430321
Except most people who get it only develop minor symptoms, meaning they don't even bother going to the hospital, any strain that become deadlier would die off pretty quickly

>>11430353
What about all the havoc in China though? Surely there's a reason most production and manufacturing has stopped. It wouldn't stop so suddenly for something that minor right?

Plus those who are getting reinfected and all the mutations possibly deadlier than the first

>>11430360
>What about all the havoc in China though? Surely there's a reason most production and manufacturing has stopped. It wouldn't stop so suddenly for something that minor right?
China did a pisspoor job of handling it despite SARS, so they trying to save face
>Plus those who are getting reinfected and all the mutations possibly deadlier than the first
reinfection is common when you have a shitty immune system, and the whole "heart attack" thing was misunderstood, the heart attacks were a side effect of the different antivirals they were pumping into their patients