/sci/ - Science & Math

>>11380663
I'd say give it a week or two before making that judgment.

>>11380673
and then another two?

It's just the flu, trust in China.

>>11380663
even with that sudden jump, the relative growth rate has come down from 14%/day to 10%/day within the last week

>>11380791
With that sudden jump, you know they're just making the numbers up as they go. They are literally shutting down China.

>>11380796
great
i hate chinese insects

>>11380791
Still as parabolic as ever, the government just decide to fake the numbers for a while

>>11380663
lmao don't bother with this place anon. They will still tell you not to worry when the world is coming to an end.

>>11380810
>for a while

>>11380818
/pol/ is right just as much as /sci/ is wrong, the only lesson I've learned here.

>>11380688
Yes, just keep giving it 2 weeks.

>>11380796
Lmao! I actually suggested this with home delivery of food a in corona thread a few weeks ago. Very cool!

Jump in infections from a change in measure is one thing. How the fuck were you mis-measuring deaths?

>>11380876
Forgive my autism. What does that mean in this case?

>>11380923
/sci/ was spouting that it was just another SARS when it clearly isn't

>>11380810
the regression formula you are looking for is exponential

>>11380935
They just changed the name to "SARS-2"

>>11380982
autism

>>11380663
Scientifically speaking, is this virus going to escape to America and kill us all?

>>11380982
Yeah because it's the same family, but the point was /sci/ was saying it was equivalent in severity. Which is wrong.

>>11380999
>and kill us all?
more like 5%, 10% in the worst case.

>>11380995
Correct
>>11381000
It's worse than SARS. It spreads like the flu and likely at least 100 times more deadly than the flu (we don't really know the mortality yet), But it has already killed more people than SARS, and the Chinese like has spent much more resources on this already than they did on SARS in total. Containing something spreading like the flu is extremely hard and the Chinese is doing a great job trying at least.

>>11381016
>like
likely

>>11380673
In a few weeks it's jumped from a nothingburger to 60k "official cases", hundreds of millions under quarantine, Internet censorship in China on overdrive and China has killed their economy. What fucking more do you want?

>>11381011
cytokine storm...

>>11380945
No it is parabolic (quadratic).

Parabolic is actually consistent with an epidemic. If you imagine the epidemic as a growing circle and infections proportion to the circumference, you get quadratic growth,

Having said that, the numbers look dodgy AF.

More info here on how polynomials can be real.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4903879/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25685633/

>>11381011
5 to 10% global kill and the knock on effects such as mass quarantines, borders shut, no work, no income, no mortgage payments, etc... will crash society

>>11381128
It was nice posting with you /sci/, may god be merciful.

>>11380663

>>11380982
The deaths to recoveries ratio is extremely concerning.

I don't see this being containable long term.
eventually it will be everywhere and the only difference will be maybe a vaccine is available.

>>11381122
>parabolic is actually consistent with an epidemic.
citation?
>proportion to the circumference
dont you mean proportional to the area?
proportional to circumference would be linear

>>11380663

Why did you use ((())) for ccp official numbers? Look I understand that China's obscuring the real data but a communist conspiracy =/= Jewish or zionist conspiracy.

>>11381140
The deaths to recoveries ratio is deebly goncerning.

>>11381151
>((()))
Not OP, but I think we ought to change the triple braks to mean sleaziness/corruption in position of authority

>>11381140
But /sci/ told me you calculate it by deaths to infected and it was a nothingburger?!?!?! How could these undergrad rebbitors who wholesale eat up communist propaganda be wrong???!?!

>>11380908
Well, since it's been happening in certain areas for weeks and is a really obvious idea maybe you shouldn't feel too proud. Sorry.

>>11381151
shut up chink

>>11381128
less than 2% as they develop better treatments, ie antivirals and antibiotics for secondary pneumonia

in 1918 the world economy managed to hang on after WORLD WAR ONE despite the Spanish flu with a death rate over 2 percent, and that's without antibiotics or antivirals or modern ventilator machines. Unemployment in 1918 was far less than during the great depression.

Obviously it could get really bad but you shouldn't be assuming worst case yet, and ofc you and your family should consolidate and stock up on essentials.

Like bruce willis would say, "it aint over till the fat lady sings".. contrary to the common incel idealogy on 4chan and reddit you shouldnt be overly cynical.

It's a nothingburger guys, reliable communist party officials have assured me that reactor 4 is well under control and workers are only receiving the equivalent of a mild chest xray from some faulty feedwater lines. Stop posting wild conspiracies.

>>11381165
>Less than 2%
>When worldwide, hospitals are mostly operating near capacity and will only take a little push to fill them up and ensure almost no one receives proper care.

>Just develop antivirals bro

For billions of people, ok bro.

>>11381165

Will it be less than 2% if the medical system is overrun? China has been unable or hardly capable of meeting the rising tide of sick patients, how do you think India or Bangladesh or various other shitholes will handle the outbreak?

>>11381177
>>11381183
the protocol at this point is mostly self isolation and most patients have normal flu like symptoms.. 10 percent require hospitalization so thats about 100 million patients in the worst case. Stadiums and community centers will be turned into make shift infirmaries just like in 1918 with the benefit of modern low priced mass produced goods like cots and blankets that are ironically made in china.

Notice that there is contradictory reports about the effectiveness of antivirals, mostly because their plan is to horde them away from poor people and downplay their effectiveness, but it's true that they are testing HIV drugs on patients. But it's still true that 90 percent of people will be OK just confined to their own homes.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1234988/Coronavirus-cure-HIV-drugs-China-virus-infection-lopinavir-ritonavir-coronavirus-news

Anyway lets say 10 million people die in the US it will still be mostly people that werent working anyway. And again, the economy in 1918 was able to maintain despite coming off a world war at the same time as the pandemic.

>>11381196
>despite coming off a world war
everyone knows those are good for the economy
economists are literally aroused by all the "growth"

>>11381203
>>11381203
tell that to Germany, britain, and russia

and by the same token you might say the pandemic might create demand for certain kinds of manufacturing? With adequate biocontainment protocols pharma companies might be able to see substantial growth? Walmart will have an amazing quarter for sure.

Anyway it could go tits up but it's cringey when all you incels pray for the worst case every time. Pathetic actually..

would you guys party up with me? I have bretty low stats and no actual skills but im a dirty little bastard with a strong sense of survival and self preservation.

also take not swine flu killed 300k people so an order of magnitude more wont be soooo bad... moderately well off people should be fine

>>11381207
>by the same token
oh, you're that fucking clown again
lol I pretty much stopped reading there

>>11381216
not him u schizo?

>>11381220
pffft you people are fucking retarded clowns lol
it would be pretty amusing if you weren't literally running the world into the ground

>>11380922
Foreign aid showed up and the chinese knew they couldn't keep lying so they bumped up the numbers that seem more realistic, they were literally not counting pneumonia deaths

im just bored and i wanna see people freak the fuck out

>>11381135

>>11381235
incel alert

>>11381258

I get pussy on the reg and feel the same tbqh senpai

>>11381135
>53% a day
that's doubling every 70/53= 1.3 days
current increase is 10%, 2x-time is a week

>>11381259
then you are an incel at heart or you hate your career. maybe get a hobbie or take up a drug addiction?

>>11381122
>Parabolic is actually consistent with an epidemic. If you imagine the epidemic as a growing circle and infections proportion to the circumference, you get quadratic growth
Wow you are talking out of your ass

>>11381011
>>11381265
Wrong post

>>11381262

>Then you are an incel at heart
>Maybe you should get a cocaine addiction
>You're probably working a dead end job anyway

Bruh I'm joking

>>11381262

>you're an incel!

>>11381268
>Bruh I'm joking
psyche, metoo.. why are you triggered so easily?

also drugs can be very rewarding.. u shud try them if you feel sad

>>11381268
https://biblehub.com/context/proverbs/26-18.htm

>>11381151
t. (((Xiao Jiung Le)))

>>11381274
no u, schizo

>>11381277
Based

>>11381277
>>11381284
I DON GET IT?

>>11381277

>People who cover their intent with "I'm just joking have malicious intent"

Isn't that the purpose of shit-posting?

>>11381275

I consume moderate amounts of caffeine and alcohol to lower stress/ cortisol levels but I don't want to consume any harder drugs.

Plenty of great men drank alcohol and coffee; some even used cocaine under medical circumstances; none smoked pot.

guise what will your weapon be when we go full on mad max?

mine will be nunchucku

>>11381277
LOL I didnt even have to check the link (just read replies) to know that this is just the excuse you needed to harm people who say mean things to you.

Cute!!!

>>11381293
>none smoked pot.
wow haha you are fucking dumb.. why are all the best artists heroin addicts that took LSD?

>Plenty of great men drank alcohol
oh yes the drug that makes you feel stupid is the good one jew... god forbid you alter your perception of reality, instead of just blunting it with a hangover???

also notice that hitler was a drug addict and so was goerring, meth and morphine.. not saying they are good men but they sure had a lot of spunk ;)

>>11381293
people who consume alcohol cannot be trusted

>>11381305
>>11381307

>t. Muslims

guise, at what death toll do we have an excuse to go full on chimp mode???

like when is it ok to loot a store?? raep?

>>11381293
>alcohol
that's the one that makes you stupid, and aggressive both short and long term, right?

>>11381309
>i like to hit myself over the head with a brick and have a headache the next day instead of expanding my mind and actually feeling good (heroin and lsd)
>i like crying and sending embarassing texts to my ex gf

thread theme:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeQAZsyucbQ

thread theme #2:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Hp9aSpPT_g

>>11381309
>>11381293
actual effects of a drug > perceived societal aesthetic of a drug

>>11381312

>Alcohol lowers intelligence and raises aggression

Moderate amounts of alcohol doesn't have that effect. I'll have one standard drink to lower stress which is optimal for testosterone production.

I also drink green tea which is great for a number of reasons, one being its low concentration of caffeine.

>>11381318

I've never drunken enough alcohol to fully inhibit my senses.

>>11381321
>I've never drunken enough alcohol to fully inhibit my senses.
bullshit one beer gives you a headache.. it's like eating a fucking pint of ice cream and dealing with the effects.. literally cheaper to just punch yourself in the face

>>11381322
>bullshit one beer gives you a headache

Lul ok

>>11381322

One shot/ one glass of beer just makes me feel mellow. I have high stress levels which can be situationally useful but is unhealthy for long periods of time.

>>11381324.
>I have high stress levels which can be situationally useful but is unhealthy for long periods of time.
heroin works better, trust me.. but yeah have fun with an inefrior form of self medication

>>11381323
im sorry you operate at such shit tier effeciency where you cant even notice the negative effects of a shitty can of beer.. I BET YOU EAT A BUMCH OF CARBOHYDRATES????? YOU DRINK SODAS HUH????

>>11380663
you own graph says that lethality dropped by half
why are you shouting?

>>11381151
>>11381159
>>11381278
>>11381164
it's legitimately disgusting to me that you all exist

>>11380663

What would herman goerings reaction to the corona virus be? Too bad they fucking killed him.

>>11381337
>comparing infected to deaths to determine lethality
Moron.

>>11381262
Christ this is 12yo tier shit

>>11381369
he would hide in a whore house in france doing morphine and cocaine

>>11381442
learn to speak english

>https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51482994

>The province - which accounts for more than 80% of overall Chinese infections - now includes "clinically diagnosed cases" in the number of confirmed cases.

>This means it includes those showing symptoms, and having a CT scan showing an infected lung, rather than relying only on the standard nucleic acid tests.

Correct me if I'm wrong but now they are pretty much calling any pneumonia-like case w/ CT scan positive a case rather than include a PCR test as well? Aren't they basically overestimating now as they are lumping in pretty much every pneumonia (i.e. all the routine pneumonia-causing pathogens) into one massive figure and calling it covid-19?

>>11381571
Well there's an epidemic going on a LOT of people have these exact symptoms, so odds are they have it, yeah sure some of them might just have the flu, but those are in a small minority

>>11381575
>so odds are they have it

It would be interesting to know the baseline of pneumonia-like diagnosis prior to this covid-19 outbreak at this timepoint in previous years. What were the cases caused by influenza, RSV, bacterial etc. Also, is Hubei in its flu season yet or just passed? Not to mention almost all deaths have been in China where the air quality is rather terrible which must have compounding effects on the prognosis.

>>11381369

The Nazi party would close all borders with highly infected countries to ensure the folk was safe from external biological threats.

>>11381322
different people respond differently to alcohol, look at asian flush reaction

>>11381582
You know, you can just look this up yourself. You don't need a real scientist to scavenge google scholar for you.

>>11381359
what so bad about >>11381159

>>11380663
the WHO already declared coronavirus to be a global health emergency. As for the spike, that might be due to the difficulty with testing this huge number of cases. Is china doing stupid shit? Absolutely:
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/02/11/antiviral-theatrics
But I don't think we can blame the spike on china faking the numbers. Although who knows how many cases are in their Uighur concentration camps?
>>11381296
Dragon dildos.
>>11380767
Experts are saying that it could be the worst flu in modern times. It's not just a flu.

>>11382633
>Although who knows how many cases are in their Uighur concentration camps?
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they sent some martyrs to Uygher territory

>>11380663
Lethality rapidly decreasing.

>>11382633
>Worst flu in modern times
>1000 old and feeble dead, 6200 survived
>number of deaths decreasing thanks to better treatment
It's bad but on the bright side it was discovered quickly enough that we managed to save a ton off lives. Probably will at worst case scenario cap off at possible 7k deaths.

>>11380876
Because /sõy/ is a circlejerk board and /pol/ is extremists insulting each other

>>11381183

Modern global economy is highly leveraged to near full employment and increasing efficiency. Even a 1% drop in manufacturing output over a financial quarter will cause markets to drop. A 10% drop in labour force numbers (or plausible threat of this occurring) will be a trigger for unprecedented meltdown

>It's another "/pol/ works themselves into an autistic fit and can't stay in their containment board" episode

>>11382806
>A 10% drop in labour force numbers
that's just not true, but yes the economy is very vulnerable but not quite that vulnerable and they will just pick up freelancers or soemthing

>>11382757
>It's bad but on the bright side it was discovered quickly enough that we managed to save a ton off lives. Probably will at worst case scenario cap off at possible 7k deaths.
the worst part will be all the leftists screeching about the benefits of the CCP and centralized authoritarian police states

>>11380982
>SARS 2: Electric Boogalo

>>11380663
>Here's your SARS sequel with a hint of a Spanish flu reboot, bro

>>11382757
>It's bad but on the bright side it was discovered quickly enough
China acted on it at least a month after they knew it was likely to be an issue.

>>11380663
>(((official)))
lmao. link to datasheet plz

>>11380663
real1

>>11383583
No

>>11383583
ok sorry for the shitty paint. it was supposed to be hiperbolic

This thread shows how badly infected /sci/ is with literal redditor communists choking on CCP cock. Fortunately you will be shitting your pants soon when you realise that NOTHING is coming out of China, the world's factory that produces pretty much fucking everything for the foreseeable future. No more Nintendo switches for you.

>>11383651
Alright /v/ stop showing your power level.

>>11383594
why would it be hyperbolic

>>11383656
idk i want to be pesimistic lmao. actually parabollic as you said sound fine too. this graph is undeniable tho...

>>11383663
I mean in the short run exponential is a good fit, in the longer run prolly logistic, and longer still I'm not sure.

>>11381100
> hundreds of millions under quarantine, Internet censorship in China on overdrive and China has killed their economy.
Forgive my ignorance but I would like to learn more about the true situation. Do you have a source, friend?

>>11383651
>when you realise that NOTHING is coming out of China
kek i expected their economy to take a nosedive in 2020 because of trade war, but i didn't fucking expect that it would be aggravated by a fucking bioweapon disease

>>11383663
ups fixed

>>11383686
So what's the difference between closed cases and recoveries?

>>11383692
some die and some recover. deaths+recovered=closed cases

>>11383694
Oh ok nevermind then

it will make a head and shoulders pattern like stonks

also it might not do very well in warmer wetter weather

Haha its a nothing burger bro, just 400m people under military quarantine and the world's biggest manufacturing economy shutting down indefinitely. This happens every flu season bro haha.

bascially if they can contain it for 6 months that would give the rest of the world a chance to stock up on antivirals and refine treatment methods.. in a year we might have a vaccine

>>11383722
you should stock up on medicine, bitcoin, gold, and food of course but there is stil a window of opportunity for the outcome to be lessened (not financial advice)

>400m people under military quarantine
this is a man made consequence

>the world's biggest manufacturing economy shutting down indefinitely
workplaces will give their workers masks and stuff like that.. at least for manufacturing

In 1918 the world had just suffered a world war and then the worlds worst pandemic yet the economy didn't crash.. right now our economy is vulnerable but it was vulnerable then too.

Also if there is a 10 percent reduction in the labor force that might actually provide some job openings for healthy young people? If you need money you could probably risk working as a caregiver somehow?

>>11383736
>this is a man made consequence

Yes a consequence implemented because they know what they are dealing with, H1N1 killed half a million people according to CDC and WHO, China didn't give a fuck and just carried on but this nothingburger warrants mass shutdowns of everything?

>workplaces will give their workers masks and stuff like that.. at least for manufacturing

They give them the shitty surgical masks which do exactly fuck all to protect you except for direct coofs on your face and even then it infects your eyes anyway, will barely have any effect whatsoever, pretty much a fucking placebo.

>In 1918 the world had just suffered a world war and then the worlds worst pandemic yet the economy didn't crash.. right now our economy is vulnerable but it was vulnerable then too.

In 1918 most countries still produced more or less everything domestically, now nearly everything from raw materials to medical supplies comes out of china. You can't just whip up an entire industrial base overnight, it will take years to build it back up, meanwhile there is a critical shortage of damn near everything.

But yes, I am stocking up and bugging out next week.

>>11380663
med/chemfags weren't getting enough grants so they changed the metric in hopes of more panic

>>11383766
They literally made the metric harder, only counting people with both symptoms AND a confirmed test, leaving out all the asymptomatic positive tests. Then this 14k number came out and they black bagged the main party official for Hubei who certainly would have signed off on this. Nothing to see here haha.

>>11383686
Deaths will be on average 25 days after symptom onset. Recoveries likely a bit faster.

>>11383752
>China didn't give a fuck nd just carried on but tis nothingburger warrants mass shutdowns of everything?
yeah maybe it's because they changed their policy after what happened in 2009? No one is saying it's a "nothingburger" (cringe) but the point is that it might not be a total collapse situation

>pretty much a fucking placebo
not true.. if everyone wears it in a standardized way it can cut down transmission down to 1 percent.. if it was useless then why do doctors wear them? The only reason they are telling the west they are useless is to stop panic buying. Same with antivirals. They say it's immune but if you talk to doctors they say they would rather take antivirals than not take them if they got infected.

>nearly everything from raw materials to medical supplies comes out of china
somewhat true.. prices will just go up for certain things

>You can't just whip up an entire industrial base
not going to get "whipd out," haha 10 percent of workers might stop working or something but they will find a way to manufacture things.. theres just too much incentive for them to not figure it out. And if they have 2 pay workers more 2 show up then they will do that. The govrnment mandated shutdowns are only going to last in the initial phase to try and contain it but if it does breakout then people will just have to accept the risk and go back to work and realize you have a 50 percent chance of getting sick and 10 percent chance of needing hospitalization.

In 1918 they didnt even understand germ theory that well.. or at least the comon person didn't. And what did they do? They just kept working through out it. And 2 percent of people just died and they kept going. They shut down factories and shit but at some point the cost of shutdowns is greater than the cost of illness itself and you damn well know the elite wuld rather people get sick than shut down the economy.

>bug out
meme tier, just stock up, going inawoods is more dangerous that getting a little flu

>>11383812
>Just the flu bro

Opinion discarded

What's /sci/'s best guess for these two unknowns?

>>11381172
Anon's in shock, get him out of here.

yaaawwwwwnnnnn
I'm tired, lets all go to bed. big nothingburger

>>11383842
Batman, 69%
>>11383855
It's just a flu. A Spanish flu.

>>11383842
>lab
>50~70%
source: trust me bro

>>11383855
i wanna go into your bed

>>11381172
You haven`t seen any dead because there are none.
There are only 3,6 infected people, that`s like a common cold.

>>11383736
>bitcoin
>gold
>implying either of those will be worth a single penny in the apocalypse

>>11381172

>feedwater lines

hello fellow chicken enthusiast

>>11381165
>2%
7+ bn people, that's 150 million dead

>>11383877
Divide that in half first and foremost? Does everyone get the flu every year? With heightened paranoia contagiousness will be less.

Also every month they will refine the treatment and they will probably have breakthrough in 6 months to a year.. literally billions are being thrown at the problem and the best indian scientists are tackling it.

>>11383824
90 percent of people dont require hospitalization

are you young, healthy? then your chances are 9/10 bretty gud.. safer than living in a forest by yourself

>>11383872
so you're saying pennies will be worth something?

I hear the cure is sex with a monkey

>>11381140
People die only because lack of treatment. The dead to recovered ratio is big only in hubei (around 20% mortality rate), In the rest it's sub 2%.

It's literally not that worse than a regular seasonal flu, it's more contagious tho.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

>>11384022
Tell me what happens when medical systems elsewhere in the world that by and large operate near capacity suddenly get an influx of cases?

>>11384055
It could potentially be bad but who knows. Now that the world is aware of it, more places will be more prepared. Every country that has or suspects they could have infected people are testing and quarantining everyone who might be infected. Basically doing everything China should have done back in December. The asymptomatic transmission could buttfuck everyone though with how easily it spreads from people who don't even know they have it, but as long as confirmed and suspected cases are kept under surveillance things shouldn't get as out of hand as it has in China where they let people cough on each other for weeks and try to cover everything up. But who knows, there could be timebombs brewing all over the world.

>>11384055
only 10 percent of people need hospitalization.. the most common treatment will be self isolation

>>11384055
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
>As of 14 February 2020, the number of severe cases is 10,627 (16%)[101] out of 64,448 with 6,682 having recovered.[4]

>>11381165
So Americans created ww2 to save their country form destruction?
Not surprising.

>>11383934
>Does everyone get the flu
everyone in practice gets exposed, but many have resistance from previous years.
Which is precisely what is different now.

>>11384000
>my family remedy for everything

Mortality 2 or 3%?

>>11380663
If my solid state professor is Chinese will I have immunity? He infected us all last semester.

>>11384237
well they estimated about half of people could get it

serious question why dont they just bum fuck rush production of a billion or so moon suits and tell everyone to wear them when they leave their house?

boom! problem solved!

america made like a million fighter jets in world war 2 why cant they make a billion trash bags glued together with breathing holes?

>>11384291
>world war 2
6 years, and the production took a while to ramp up
this covid19 shit is doubling every week, it'll be global big time before June

>>11384301
>4 months to manufacture some plastic bags
dude if we cant fucking do that fucking simple fucking thing then what are we as a fucking species???

do you know how many parts were in the alison v12 engine alone for the p-51? or the nordon bombsight?

dude so if we have 4 months.. then that is 1/3 a year and times six that is 18 times shorter of a time to git redy but we are fucking talking about fucking platic fucking bags man?!??! a

centralization adn corporitization was a mistake.. we need decentralized prodiuction models and 3d printing from here on out.. go back to the middle ages like the fall of ropme

>>11383992
weaponize them.

>>11384291
So uh. Did these two guys suffocate to death?

>>11384353
>4 months to manufacture some plastic bags
no anon, it's all over by June, everyone has been exposed to it already
no point in trying to stay dry if you're in the lake already

>>11384209
>Americans created ww2
Brainlet

>>11381450
What language was he speaking?

There‘s a taxi driver in Tokyo who was tested positive... who had dozens of clients a day... in a city of more than 30 million people.
It‘s over, this thing is global now. I expect anarchy to start at some point in Japan, because they can‘t just quarantine the capital lol.

>oh god oh fuck a couple hundred chinks died it’s the end of the world guise!!!!!!!1
call me when a first world country goes under quarantine

>>11384404
Would it have been a World War if the USA weren't involved?

>>11384548
Yes.

>>11380663
I appreciate Chinese stats

>deaths decreasing

>>11384291
you need HEPA filters, motors, and batteries. Most of which are made in china. You can't force everyone to wear a suit.

>>11383937
>are you young, healthy?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXA_OM4Xb28

The term "healthy" stops being really useful here, and of the figures I trust, for example from HK or Singapore it's more like 16% critical.

>>11384478
Well I understand your worries but he was actually hospitalized back in January 29th and as people here on /sic/ have said for the millionth time that specific nation is considerably cleaner than the entirety of China. Also the only reason why that one women died was because she was in her late eighties and the fact she also caught the infamous Japanese cold afterwards. An actual breakout of this virus down over there is extremely unlikely(the cruise ship doesn't count with all the Australians on board) so I wouldn't worry about it dispite what people say.

>>11385053
What a contrived way of saying "it's a nothingburger". Surely a person who can't spell "despite" is a qualified expert in virology that we should trust when he says that the most contagious pandemic in a century can be prevent by just being "cleaner than China"; by that logic, there wouldn't be any infected anywhere.

>>11385053
Also rather astonishingly and impressively they managed to collect other patients who came in contact with said driver. Looks to be they're actually doing a great job in preventing this from getting worse as expected

>>11385065
I like how you disregarded my post entirely just because of a stupid typo I accidentally wrote down.

>>11380810
>they underreported at the beginning
>then they overreported for some time
>then they started udnerreporting massively again
>now they're reporting the real numbers
hmmm

It spiked because they changed the testing methodology, not because the virus started to spread faster.

so lemme get this straight conspiratards? simultaneously you think the CCP is underestimating the case rate yet the death rate is also higher?

1300 people have died.. we know that.. but we also know that probably hundreds of thousands of people have the virus so it's actually WAY MILDER than we ever thought!

look dr drew can btfo your stupid argument:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWY0oZV51VY

>>11386033
This, why do conspiracy theorists continue to push this as the deadliest of all modern viruses? Also the people who indeed recovered are now currently at 8100, far higher than deaths. And the global pandemic ideas? Also stupid. Countries like Japan, Australia and the United States are already doing pretty good in stopping this.
>Inb4 lying nothingburger appeasing the great leader

>>11386033
>>11386074
i dont care because the more scared people get the more bitcoin and ETH they will buy

>>11381260
>>current increase is 10%, 2x-time is a week
Current reported increase. I trust the data from when the testing capacity wasn't saturated and the model more than I trust the chinese reported numbers now.

>>11386252
really the only numbers you can trust are the death numbers because most people are too afraid to report themselves sick to the CCP

if you felt a mild fever and you lived in China would you go straight to the CCP doctors??

>>11386262
>the only numbers you can trust are the death numbers
Not even that, since the wuhan anon reported that those who died from complications due to the disease (like pneumonia) weren't being reported as dead from the wuflu.

>>11386267
yeah but international inspectors are watching them now? that was part of the reason the cases jumped so you think they really would let that fly? wuhan anon was like a week ago right?

>>11386272
>you think they really would let that fly
They are still refusing help from the WHO. Nothing's really changed in that aspect. Trying to save face even if it kills them.

>>11386277
>They are still refusing help from the WHO
then howd the inspectors get there

the death rates could artificially low, sure, but it's probably more accurate than the overall case numbers which are very likely to be 1/5 or maybe even 1/10 the actual numbers as people will probably avoid hospitals if they can... so overall the mortality rate still seems to be less than 2%

>>11386291
Of course, the amount of recoveries is now at least in the 8300 mark while the deaths are still not even in the 2000k mark. It's nasty but I'm impressed they managed to save a lot more lives.

interesteing interview with a westerner trapped in Wuhan:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Zg8q5wHfok

apaprently they have to get a permission slip to leave their apartments and they are being told every week that the peak of infection will be two weeks then things will go back to normal but its the same every week

>>11380810
>parabolic
bruh...

>>11384399
sars lasted 8 months, i dont understand where everybody is thinking this will go down soon, this is the START of the pandemic

>>11386033
yeah, look at the sulfur levels over wuhan, look at the news where they are bringing in more funeral workers to keep up, read that for the last 2 weeks all there funeral homes are working 24/7 now. the official death rate is a lie, its likely more people are dying per day then the total deaths officially announced for the entire thing.

>>11381262
I don’t nornally browse other boards but /sci/ is full of this incel crap normally? I’ve seen Anons say incel so many times already

>>11386497
winter is almost over

>>11385065
Is this Reddit ? Where a typo somehow refutes someone’s point?
This is my first time on this board and it’s full of the biggest homos on 4chan

>>11383937
>>11384022
I've been hearing horrible whispers about 're-infections' and 'the second infection overtook the heart and the patient died'.

>>11386546
its nice and warm in Singapore, and yet there are daily new infections...

>>11380663
Also, here's what I've gathered:
-Wuhan has been known for it's bio-weapon lab and China has been known for accidentally releasing SARs, rumors of Canadian bio-weapon being stolen (it's all probably nothing)
-Thankfully low ~2-4% death rate for first infection (close relatives: SARS 10-17%, MERS 40%)
-Testing does not work well, doctors have tested themselves 5 times in a row to confirm an obvious infection (confirmed)
-Doctors have resorted to lung scans to report cases, which is why it jumped in one province
-Basically airborne (all but confirmed: entire cruise ship was being infected, during a no contact quarantine)
-Hit during flu season and the largest migration of humanity, Chinese New Year
-Is easily dismissed as a light flu for majority of first cases (confirmed)
-Confirmed cases are just a fraction of real cases (size of international spread has all but confirms this)
-Re-infections are possible (very likely, reported by doctors)
-Second infections have had an immune response that destroys the heart (rumor, likely possible, lines up with deaths of some doctors, reported in patients by doctors, videos of people collapsed dead in street)
-Researchers have been ping ponging between R0 ranges: was 4.4 to 6.7 yesterday, now 1.4 to 3.9 (uhhhhhhhhh)
-One Japanese taxi driver 'drove some Chinese-looking-person for 15 minutes' and caught it (confirmed)
-'Hidden Carrier' time of an insane 24 days (not proven, but likely)
-WHO is openly saying it will hit the world, buying time for a vaccine and anti-virals (confirmed)
-CDC has requested the testing of 'all flu-like symptoms that are not the flu' for corona virus, in 6 major US cities (confirmed)

Ultimately I think this is going to be like a very, very bad super flu that becomes seasonal. And the argument 'the flu kills more' is really fucking retarded because the seasonal flu is from the last fucking time we had a major virus outbreak that killed millions, we could never get rid of it after that.

>>11386562
Also, here's what I've gathered:
-Wuhan has been known for it's bio-weapon lab and China has been known for accidentally releasing SARs, rumors of Canadian bio-weapon being stolen (it's all probably nothing)
-Thankfully low ~2-4% death rate for first infection (close relatives: SARS 10-17%, MERS 40%)
-Testing does not work well, doctors have tested themselves 5 times in a row to confirm an obvious infection (confirmed)
-Doctors have resorted to lung scans to report cases, which is why it jumped in one province
-Basically airborne (all but confirmed: entire cruise ship was being infected, during a no contact quarantine)
-Hit during flu season and the largest migration of humanity, Chinese New Year
-Is easily dismissed as a light flu for majority of first cases (confirmed)
-Confirmed cases are just a fraction of real cases (size of international spread has all but confirms this)
-Re-infections are possible (very likely, reported by doctors)
-Second infections have had an immune response that destroys the heart (rumor, likely possible, reported by doctors, videos of people collapsed dead in street)
-Researchers have been ping ponging between R0 ranges: was 4.7 to 6.7 yesterday, now 1.4 to 3.9 (uhhhhhhhhh)
-One Japanese taxi driver 'drove some Chinese-looking-person for 15 minutes' and caught it (confirmed)
-'Hidden Carrier' time of an insane 24 days (unproven, but likely)
-WHO is openly saying it will hit the world, buying time for a vaccine and anti-virals (confirmed)
-Testing of 'all flu-like symptoms that are not the flu' for corona virus, in 5 major US cities (confirmed)

Ultimately I think this is going to be like a very, very bad super flu that becomes seasonal. And the argument 'the flu kills more' is really fucking retarded because the seasonal flu is from the last fucking time we had a major virus outbreak that killed millions, we could never get rid of it after that.

>>11386730
Sorry for the dupe, took too long.

>>11386730
>Thankfully low ~2-4% death rate for first infection
it's probably lower as the hidden overall case rate is probably higher than the hidden death rate... a lot harder to cover up a body in a hospital and there are foreign inspectors there now

>Second infections have had an immune response that destroys the heart
experts are also saying that people likely have some immmunity towards a second infection so those that do get it a second time probably are immune compromised

>buying time for a vaccine and anti-viral
if the cases dont go exponential outside of china for 6 months then there is a pretty good chance.. remember how fast they had an ebola vaccine? (outbreak in may and vaccine by christmas)

>Ultimately I think this is going to be like a very, very bad super flu that becomes seasonal.
possible but also 1918 flu came back the next year then largely dissipated after 1919.. it's not extremely beneficial to a virus to have a high mortality rate.. the most evolved viruses cause low grade infections like the common cold so maybe we will see a diminished version linger especially with vaccines

>because the seasonal flu is from the last fucking time we had a major virus outbreak that killed millions, we could never get rid of it after that.
hard to say when influenza first appeared but it's likely it has occurred since antiquity as it originates in mother fucking birds.. first scientific refrence to a bird flu is in the 19th century

>that video
depressing sight but not necessarily cause for fear because those bodies have to stay in the quarrentine so they run out of space and if you look at the people there they are OLD

>>11386820
common superstition

also guys please be aware that a >2% mortality rate is historically not that severe for diseases before the advent of vaccines and antibiotics

it used to be common that lots of people got sick and died.. our economies kept marching on even during giant world wars

>>11386549
so just go

>>11386572
But at the same time it's not spreading as quickly.

Alright I have an update for today. Spain and India are now virus free (I knew super power 2020 could hold it off), unfortunately one patient in France died who was from wuhan though, recovery rate is nearly 9000 with far more people surviving than dying now, international and domestic newer cases are lower, in Japan they are currently scanning individuals who have come into contact with the taxi driver(those nips are crazy prepared) plus another person over there has made a full recovery.

>>11386272
What makes you think that? Also a single WHO team is going to be preoccupied with the virus and the healthcare response, not investigating how many uncounted people have been cremated in the past few weeks, even if having such information is pretty vital to understand the virus and how it spreads.