/sci/ - Science & Math

>>11364007
Not as much as we deserve.

Everything is gonna be alright

>>11364007
It's hard to say: we're still anywhere between total fine to quite fucked.
I said to myself yesterday that if the official Chinese figures continue to grow and there are anymore cases in the UK by the end of the week then I'll start prepping.
Needless to say, I wasn't happy seeing the 3rd confirmed UK case pop up about an hour ago.

>>11364017
About Novel Corona Virus Infection, the Chinese government is taking the most powerful measurements currently, and everything is under control.
Life is normal in most cities by far, with only a few cities like Wuhan affected. I believe it will all return to normal soon. Thanks for your concerns!

>>11364013
/thread

>>11364017
The worst case scenario is not total collapse of civilization, and it wont get to the worst case scenario anyway.

>>11364007
Bad Dragon XXXL Level Fucked

>>11364007
best case scenario: 80% of people with weak/underdeveloped immune systems (young children, people > 70, drug addicts) die

worst case scenario: we're fine

Is the Indian government shitting bricks yet?

Is Japan with it's old population feeling really conflicted right now?

"Worst" case scenario, investors make lotsa money.

>>11365841

They are shitting on bricks as we speak.

Worst case on an individual level is that you die. Second worst case is people you know die. Third worst case is you catch it, survive, and have poor health for the rest of your life (ARDS is no joke) Best case is it's contained in your country and you and people you know don't get it. Moonshot is someone comes up with an effective vaccine and your community is immunized before it reaches you.

The thing about novel epidemics is that in the long run, one is GUARANTEED to absolutely roll the entire world, and this risk increases with increased free movement, air travel, and mass goods shipping. It's just that heading any one particular emerging epidemic (they're pretty frequent, every couple of years) you can't tell if it's gonna develop into a big pandemic that lays waste to everyone, or fizzle out. 99% of times it fizzles out, but that 1% is very unexpected.

>>11365805
>people with weak/underdeveloped immune systems (young children, people > 70, drug addicts) die
You forgot homos.

>>11364007
Nothingburger

>>11365805
>Lul I’m an edgy psycho underage poster

>>11365889
kek

>>11364007
Depends if the Tencent leak was real really.

>>11364007
the economy will take a hit regardless of the body count that's for sure

>>11366098
also i'm pretty sure china is pulling a iran

>>11364007
You’re pretty fucked. The virus has a 50% morality rate: you either die or you live after getting it.

Scientifically speaking...

If I can get my hands on the Coronavirus and ebola. Could I gibson-assemble the two together to get the mortality rate of Ebola and the ease of spread from Coronavirus??

>>11366106
Ebola kills too quickly to spread far.
You'd need something that kills slower so that it spreads more and also overwhelms medical infrastructure.

>>11364007
I don`t know about we, but I had it and fully recovered now. Felt like a bad flu, don`t know why anyone is dying from this, it's not like I`m super healthy or fit. The worst part is the boredom in isolation, the best part is I`m unlikely to get it again. Thank you for letting me be born with a white man`s immunity system.

>>11366118
Excellent post! Virus is not problem thanks to superior Chinese medicine. Glad for your recovery. 10 points deposited into social credit score!

>>11366129
What you talking about, I`m not chinese. I`m a white guy treated by western medicine.

Pretty fucked, even if the official figures are true, which I doubt, we're still seeing another Spanish Flu, pandemics have happened quite frequently throughout human history.

>>11365754
Containment has failed within China itself.

>>11366153
There will never ever be another pandemic like the Spanish flu again. Our understanding of how diseases spread is too good for that.

>>11366176
you try argue with apocalyptics; they literally pray for 3rd ww

>>11366176
>>11366179
You guys do realise that our medical resources are limited right?
The US only has ~100k hospital beds available in the entire country, most of which are taken up by already sick people.
It's not like you can just throw paracetamol at the wuflu, whatever it will take to effectively deal with it won't be in large supply either.

>>11366179
This

>>11366176
People who push this meme want the apocalypse to happen. It’s a sort of religious misanthropy, and they have faith.

Evidence doesn’t matter.

>>11364007
Still virgin.

Someone on this very board has the cure so I'd say we'll be fine.

>>11366353
>hacker 4chan obliterates Chinese bioweapon
Imagine the press.

>>11364007
>How fucked are we?
20%

>>11366229
What evidence? Viral pandemics are a common occurrence and you don't quarantine 60 million people for nothing. Doom and gloom posting is retarded but to dismiss this as nothing is even more retarded.

>>11366118
Can't you use your phone in isolation?>

It's a waiting game really but I'm expecting India to start taking drastic measures in a week or two at most.

>>11364007
>>11364016
Cute.
Would cuddle.

>>11366146
why are you eating words and using ` instead of ' though

you type like an ESL yellowskin

>>11366104
Wven that is guaranteed as surviving the virus can increase your risk to bacterial infections

>>11364007
The fucked amount is more dependent on medical logistics than the virus itself.

The virus is essentially a more violent flu that causes pretty bad pneumonia, that is pretty easy to treat with the right medication and care. The issue, which is why its so bad in Wuhan, is that when an increasingly large amount of people get infected there simply isn't the infrastructure to both take care of them and provide them with medicine and care, and past a certain point in the course of time it takes to treat one person ten more can be infected and require the same treatment. Eventually the containment and treatment stops scaling with the infection and you have the government welding your doors closed and flying drones telling you to go home.

For massive genuine pandemics, like not meme shit, the world is woefully unprepared. Urban China is essentially first world at this point and they're in complete meltdown, can you imagine less developed places like India or Africa? Or the sheer amount of red tape and logistical clusterfuck that it would cause in the US or Canada?

I'm still gambling on it not blowing up, even though I know the official numbers are at least 1/3rd the real. But this is the perfect storm for something like this.

>>11367669
>Urban China is essentially first world at this point
lol

>>11366597
>you don't quarantine 60 million people for nothing
It's a highly contagious diseases that can cause death, in a highly dense population, in a line of virus epidemics that have caused hundreds or thousands of death, and when it first appeared was unknown. How else are you supposed to handle that? You quarantine as much as possible regardless of what you think it'll turn out to be. That's how you stop it spreading and becoming a bigger problem. It doesn't make sense to enact poor measures that won't effectively contain the outbreak.

>>11367669
>>China is essentially first world at this point
>20 points were added to your social cred score

>>11367940
urban =/= rural

>>11367944
hubei is your average chinese city. they are by no means developed.

your "first world" are actually a bunch of territory that china claimed back. one of those is notorious for being a tax haven where you can legally steal money from anyone in the world, and another is known as the world's gambling capital.

>>11366174
Containment was pretty much doomed to fail. This was being reported on mid December and they kind of just pretended it wasn't an issue until it was already too late to contain it well.

>>11364007
We’ll know in a few weeks

>>11368175
No we won't.
CCP will either cover it up or exaggerate it depending on which is more useful to them.
Might cause a financial crash though.

>>11368195
We'll know because the virus will be easily visible outside of China by then. We won't have to go off of whatever China says about it.

>>11364007
China may be fucked but everyone else seems okay. Whether or not China is covering up the damage over there, the fact remains that it also popped up in the US over a month ago and was quickly halted in the handful of cities we found it in and nothing has come of it since. If it were as bad as some people have been theorizing, then by now it would be impossible to hide.

One fact is clear, the party must be punished for this.

It will most likely become part of the seasonal flu.
The current outbreak will just keep going until the end of winter.

Swine flu had 1 day of asymptomatic transmission and because of that it spread to every country, what is the real status of nCoV?

>>11368372
So we'll just get a vaccine for it every season now? And if so, how come a vaccine hasn't been made yet? Don't they have plenty of samples to use? I thought vaccines were simple to make.

>>11364007
>>11364016
there have been new developments

>>11366118
How they tested that you have coronavirus?
How was you infected with coronavirus?
From which country are you from?

>>11364007
do you smoke? do you have high blood pressure or some sort of heart condition? do you live in china?

unless your ACE2 receptor protein density is abnormally high (which it could be from any of those) then you're probably fine. ACE2 receptor is where the virus binds and enters the cell. the more quickly a cell is infected, the quicker the cell will be lysed (causing cell death and inflammation) and the quicker and more severe the onset of symptoms will be.

poor lung or cardiovascular health is what causes the upregulation of ACE2 receptors, which control vasoconstriction. living in a chinese city is essentially smoking a pack a day before you even account for all the other shit they put in their bodies (including smoking one or two packs a day)

>>11364007
As long as it spreads to Africa any deaths in the western world is simply the price for a better world

>>11365889
If not they should. With a 1B+ population and enormous density it would be a wildfire.

>>11368928
That will increase immigration you retard, the governments will under Jewish pressure push for increased aid to Africa and increased immigration therefrom to save the poor little Africans.

The virus needs to spread to all the JEWS if you want to see Africans disappearing from Western countries.

>>11368840
Literally what?

>>11366104
>you either die or you live after getting it.
You don't say...

>>11366044
>Lel I'm le morally superior totally adult faggot

>>11370797
>Lel I'm le morally superior totally adult faggot

I am morally superior to you.
:)

Anyone outside of Hubei is 99.99999...% likely to be safe. Inside Hubei, odds drop to 99%.

>>11368372
>>11368457
So how does this combine with the fact that nCov probably triggers ADE the same way as SARS does? Will people die too quickly for it to spread efficiently when it comes around the second time?

>>11365754
how much are they paying you chang????

>>11370519
They're saying the pangolin can spread the virus now

>>11366104
>you either die or you live after getting it.

>>11366108
Bury ebola RNA in coronavirus. Have one ebola virus made for every x corona. Tune x such that being infected by ebola is unlikely until well after incubation.
Bonus: Good luck dealing with corona and ebola chan together. What a couple of rascals.

>>11370881
>ebolona
>corebola

>>11370378
cut a deal with china, one express plane straight to Telaviv

Coronavirus isn't a cool enough name if it actually does turn into something on a ridiculous scale

>>11364016

>cute
she has an infectious smile

>>11371268
is there a better beer brand name that would fit?

>>11371295
Milwaukee virus
Buschings virus
Bud L. virus
Miller's virus

>>11366365


Do you mean 60% won't last next Christmas?

>>11371321
>Miller's virus
i rike

Anyone else noticing an increased number of friends getting sick with "the flu" in the past couple days?

>>11372757
Yes. Hm. Do you think that's because it is flu season currently?

>>11372757
Apparently this year's vaccine is less effective than normal. One of my coworkers got vaccinated and still came down with it last week.
Coronavirus is scary because it's new and has a higher mortality than flu, yet flu will almost certainly end up killing far more people than coronavirus by the end of the season. We just don't think about it much because we're inured to it, like car crash fatalities.

I want to hold hands with Corona-chan!

>>11372757
What if coronavirus is already all over the world and is getting misdiagnosed as the flu? Remember that it was first sighted at the start of January and got a few weeks to infect and travel unimpeded until China actually did something about it.

>>11373023
>What if coronavirus is already all over the world
It...is already all over the world, anon.

>>11373559
I mean beyond the handful of "official" cases popping up.

>>11373023
Then not enough people are dropping dead from it for you to notice, so I'll take my chances with it

>>11373009
>yet flu will almost certainly end up killing far more people than coronavirus
Thats due to how deaths are recorded.
People who die of the flu always have other diseases that were probably going to kill them anyway.
No one dies of just the flu but a lot of the coronavirus deaths were otherwise healthy people.

>>11370814
congratulations

>>11372757

Yes, it's concerning yet I may just be tricking myself.

>>11371268

But it isa cool name if you think of the Sun's Corona and not the shitty bear brand.

>>11371292

>>11366106
Ebola is a terrible virus if your endgame is maximum spread.

>>11373009
>Apparently this year's vaccine is less effective than normal
Except when I was a toddler (I guess), I never took the flu vaccine
redpill me on the flu vaccine

>>11376504
My experience is it's an inconvenience to get one, it'll make your arm sore for a day, and it's got like a 40% chance of even working for any given year. Unless you might actually die from getting the flu, there isn't a huge benefit in getting the vaccine. Herd immunity would be nice, but when the fucker mutates so fast the vaccine that was effective last month is more often than not worthless now.

>>11375637
How about a human version of the FELV virus? It's literally like super-HIV

>>11366039
Because HAART is potentially effective to some degree in treatment for n-cov (and is in the current drug cocktail for treatment), HIV+ people (with all their t-cells) are less vulnerable than the average person. Based and Pozpilled.

I'm going to the GUM clinic, pretending I did anal with a bunch of poz guys and storing up on PEP before the drugs get rationed in pandemic.

>>11370879
No, put the fucking CCP flag back on there.
Guarantee you whoever made that edit is trying to disassociate China from the virus as much as possible.

>>11368417
Certainly doesn't look like the virus will be contained. The cruise ship indicates the virus is highly contagious. I dont think the numbers from China can be considered reliable. Considering a highly contagious nCoV, it's more likely than not spreading undetected outside of China, however it's not causing people to drop dead as they walk down the street.

>>11365889
Based

>>11376905
Yet. Remember the incubation time looks to be 24 days.

WTF GUYS IT IS OVER
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXi5Rdn3eSo
THE ZOMBIE EATING CROWS ARE HERE

It seems to be a threat to kids as well as old or immunocompromised etc. though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXA_OM4Xb28

;_;

>>11367669
>can you imagine less developed places like India or Africa
People will barely notice that on the world stage. Only really has serious global consequences in countries which have the means to enforce quarantines and provide high level medical care, and which are important economically. China shutting down and interrupting supply chains is the worst case scenario. The biggest potential fallout from this will be China's retail banking and real estate market collapsing.

>>11377237
AT MAX it's 24, the standard seems to be about 3-5 if you look at the actual transmission spread in countries that aren't China.

>>11377267
>>can you imagine less developed places like India
>People will barely notice that on the world stage
They produce shitload of rice and sugarcane.

>>11377320
And they'll continue to produce it, most people just get a cold. The problem is china shutting down factories which produce essential parts for the planets just in time economy.

Let [math]P(t)[/math] be the cumulative number of people that have tested postive for COVID-19 at day [math]t[/math]. Let [math]D(t)[/math] be the number of people that have died from COVID-19 at day [math]t[/math] of those that have tested positive. Let [math]P'[/math] be the total number of people that will have tested postive for the virus when the epidemic is over. Let [math]D'[/math] be the total number of persons that died and have tested positive for the virus after the epidemic is over. Define [eqn]r = \frac{D'}{P'}.[/eqn] At the WHO press conference on February 10 we heard that the average time it takes to die for those who die is even longer than for SARS (supposedly due to advances in medical treatment, thus the time might be lowered when patients do not get appropriate medical care). Average time to die from SARS was 25 days after symptom onset. The median incubation time for COVID-19 seems to be fairly similar to the average incubation time for SARS which is 5 days. Furthermore, for those who do receive a positive diagnosis of COVID-19, most will receive this after symptom onset. I don't have numbers on this, but I am going to assume this is at least 2 days. These delays means that when [math]P(t)[/math] is increasing we have [eqn] r > \frac{D(t)}{P(t)}[/eqn]. If we account for this delay the following might hold [eqn]r = \frac{D(t)}{P(t-d)}[/eqn] where [math]d[/math] is the delay in number of days. We can rewrite this as [math]D(t) = r P(t-d)[/math]. From the information above a modest estimate is [math]d = 25-2=23[/math]. In other words [eqn]D(t) = r P(t-23).[/eqn] Thus an honest estimate for [math]r[/math] today rests on the number of positively tested 23 days ago. If we look at the numbers given out by China we see that there was 193 positively tested for COVID-19 23 days ago. Compare this to the over 1000 deaths today from the virus. Thus the numbers we have been given does not reflect the numbers of infected 23 days ago well.

>>11364013
FPBP

It's literally over lads.
You can go home now.

>>11372757
yes, i just had it. symptoms started literally 5 days after me visiting a town in Poland where some chink woman was transported to hospital suspected of carrying the virus 4 days after my visit. Took me 2 weeks and I am back to health now, didnt have any respiratory problems, only higher temperature and runny nose and some aches. Doctor havent even perscribed anything other than symptom reducing meds.
I wish i had corona already, which I think probably the chance is very low, unless it is already spread alot more than we suspect and is just not that deadly after all.

>>11377738
Nah they are just struggling to measure >3000 per day. What we are seeing is the limit of how much they can track.

>>11377738
Anon, remember those things they told you about decreasing sequences, series and limits? I realize you probably don't because you probably have never heard these words before, but still

>>11377816
You can be in denial all you want, I'm just showing you the truth, that the rate of spread is tanking and the epidemic is nearing its end.

>>11377849
>it's going down, so the total must be finite

>>11377816
you are a nigger, and should kys

>>11377889
>I'm both autistic and retarded please be patient with me
Fair enough anon.
Fair enough.

>>11373760
>No one dies of just the flu but a lot of the coronavirus deaths were otherwise healthy people.

Studies show that most of the severe cases and deaths have been from elderly men with underlying health issues; the only death in Hong Kong was a guy with diabetes. As deadly as this illness is, it is targeting the older people with underlying illnesses in the same way the flu does.

>>11367940
LOL Anon, you funny!
China is the most advanced nation in the world!
The Chinese people are healthy, determined and invincible!
Great China will guide the world out of this ordeal!
> I just scored 60 social credit points for saying that!

>>11378062
the ideal world for (other) people to live in
t. /pol/

>>11377738
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf
above has pic related
https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-08/key-diagnostic-test-might-be-missing-many-coronavirus-cases-101513176.html

>>11364007
Its just a flu.

>>11377738

>>11378741
I don't know any flu that had a three week incubation period, was airborn, lingered for three weeks, sent 20% of those infected to the ICU, and killed around 2-3% of those infected.
Spanish flu is kinda close, but not quite there.

>>11367669
>The virus is essentially a more violent flu that causes pretty bad pneumonia, that is pretty easy to treat with the right medication and care. The issue, which is why its so bad in Wuhan, is that when an increasingly large amount of people get infected there simply isn't the infrastructure to both take care of them and provide them with medicine and care, and past a certain point in the course of time it takes to treat one person ten more can be infected and require the same treatment. Eventually the containment and treatment stops scaling with the infection and you have the government welding your doors closed and flying drones telling you to go home.


I think Chinese are getting hit rather hard because the virus does cause severe respitory complications like pneumonia and china is known for having bad air pollution and many chinese people are notorious smokers.

These people likely already have some lung damage and the coronavirus is just finishing it off

ofc this is all speculation

>>11377943
The seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 0.095%.
Coronavirus is anywhere from 2-4% we don't know yet.
2-4% might not sound like much but it is its about the percentage of the worlds population killed in WW2.
Stop spreading misinformation I don't want 2-4% of my country to die.

>>11365890
I honestly find it fucking ridiculous there is no health screening blood test required before flight. I'm assuming they could at least detect you have something by an elevated white cell level or something.

>over 500 cases in countries other than China
>doesn't show any signs of stopping
For fucks sake, it's ridiculous how they struggle with it.

>>11379057
>Implying this would be practical for the hundred-odd people per flight

>>11379057
The virus can be detected using a PCR test on a throat swabbing, but the false positive rate is reasonably high and there aren't even close to enough test kits being manufactured to cover everyone traveling internationally.

>>11379350
False positives are a minor annoyance compared to false negatives which would pose a real problem

>>11378891
allegedly about 30% become serious cases (pneumomic) that have been counted and confirmed (if you believe those numbers). of those an estimated 20% have been fatal.

as a perspective, SARs took 6 months to reach the numbers we had last week, worldwide. we are currently double that in China today.

>>11364007 Is the worst case scenario 60% of the world population getting infected before a vaccine and 3% of those dying?

>>11379382
A high rate of false positives makes people lose faith in the test, and false negatives are possible too. Also, what do you do if someone who has gone through an airport tests positive? That result means there are viral particles inhabiting the airway. They could be contagious. The likelihood of 1 in 100 people on a flight coming up with a false positive is reasonably high. Enjoy the delays.
A quick test is valuable when you have someone who you already believe may have been exposed to the virus, or someone who is showing symptoms. They cannot be abused.

>>11376796
I think you'd have much better luck with a genetically engineered form of measles, with a high lethality that kills slowly but not slow enough

>>11367669
If it gets to Africa we're fucked for the exact reasons you mentioned. Only reason why HIV became a global pandemic was because it spread unhindered in Africa and was only noticed when gay men in America started dying

>>11371321
>Bud L. virus
I'm a carrier lmao, also
Rolling Rock Virus

>>11364007

people keep talking about vaccine for coronavirus, but is it actully possible?

Vaccine works by injecting the human body with some protein of the virus and hope your own body can create antibodies against it.

However, according to report the human body cannot actully create effective long term antobodies against the coronavirus, people who recovered from coronavirus can still get reinfected

>>11373559
27+ countries isn't all around the world?

>>11373760
When the outbreak was "small", China released the identities and underlying health issues of the people that died to 2019-nCoV. I never read about a single individual in the first 100 or so that were "otherwise healthy," so I've no idea where you're getting this

>>11378739
second link is behind a paywall moshe

>>11379382
ur idea was dumb admit it

>>11378739
as if all chinese coronavirus deaths are reported as such

>>11379868
People have been attributing the 5% lethality in Wuhan as opposed to half that outside Hubei (official data and so suspect) almost solely to the inept government and the overwhelmed medical infrastructure but it might also be that everywhere that isn't Hubei is simply lagging behind as the virus runs its course and it'll start going up quite soon as the Harvard epidemiologist is predicting.

It stands to reason the people with most medical complications were the most vulnerable to it and so the first to succumb, but that data is itself suspect as the giant cover-up and wet market cover story had already swung into full gear by then so I wouldn't put too much stock into that. Looking at (for example) Singapore with 50 cases and of those 8 in serious condition is more telling. If those numbers are indicative then that's not good. Also see >>11377253 and consider the odds of three kids with severe medical conditions dying in the same ward in (what was probably) the same hour.

Allright. It's been 72 hours. Let's see if it grew exponentially.

Lack of Corona virus in India?
Perhaps curry is the cure, or maybe the virus is being transmitted through meat.

>>11380539
https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=sO5kT_1580595009

Shit's fucked. Quarantine is now more than 40 million.

>>11379864
>"eating insects"
>obviously not an insect
I thought Asians were supposed to be smart.

But also I had read that coronaviruses in general are hard to get vaccines to work against.

>>11380559
>you must make a video just for spiders and title it appropriately
autism

what's happening

>>11380683
Lying chink compensation engaged.

>>11380683
practically all of that increase is from Hubei, wonder what they've been doing last couple of days

>>11380683
they're now counting people with symptoms but no diagnosis

>>11380683
changed diagnostic criteria in hubei

I don't get what could have caused a jump like this. Assuming the numbers are accurate, what could this even be?

>>11380719

they were just underreporting cases for the last few days

>>11380719
>>11380753
based chinks gaming the numbers to manipulate american markets

>>11380753
Its not from the last few days.

>>11380719
China was hiding cases by only announcing the ones they tested so far. There were actually 7000 yesterday not 1500 or whatever.

>>11364007
like .6 * between .005 and .02 = .012 so
.3 to 1.2 percent fucked.
So maybe 20-80 million people.

>>11364007
Worst case scenario everyone lives. Best case scenario everyone you don't like dies. Bestest case scenario everyone dies.

>>11377433
TL;DR China is lying about the real numbers.

Considering that China has 1.3 billion people, many of whom concentrated in 10-20 million people megacities, and is therefore a paradise for any epidemic, and the government clearly failed to contain this one even after putting 300 million people under quarantine, 2019-nCoV is pretty much guaranteed to spread to the entire country and kill several tens of millions. In China alone. More millions in the rest of the world.

>>11380683
International observers are forcing the chink commie government to stop lying too brazenly.

They're still not telling us the real numbers for the simple reason that they themselves can't know them, but we're getting closer to a realistic estimate.

>>11377237
Even If incubation is one month, WuFlu is incredibly likely to have spread internationally undetected in December and earlier. Most likely healthy individuals will only develop flu like symptoms.

>>11364007
To not be fucked, our present observations of the transmissibility and lethality of the virus need to be grossly overestimated

Way this DOESN'T kill a million people:
>transmission is magically harder in non-shithole countries
>the virus can't transmit well when it's spring-time
>turns out very few people actually get seriously sick and Wuhan burning bodies 24/7 and building several thousand extra hospital beds (which were literally just hospital beds, no isolation, equipment, whatever, fucking death auditoriums) was just a quirk bro
>some drug we have already created does a pretty good job of reducing death and can be administered at home
>incubation period is actually way shorter and people have just been dumb or haven't realized how they were exposed

Right now, death occurs around 28 days after infection- 7-14(+??) day incubation, 7 days for symptoms to get bad enough to be hospitalized, another 7-14 days to die in hospital. LONG ASS LAG THERE.

The other calculus is that even a small number of hospitalizations will totally overwhelm even modern healthcare systems, dramatically reducing quality of care for new admissions and ramping up expected mortality. No one has the ICUs to deal with a mass infection and 20% of infected needing ICU treatment. It's fine when you've got a dozen, 50 people, 100 people ill in a super-modern country, but 1,000? 10,000? Nah bro


>>11364017
Are you retarded? Why SHOULDN'T you have at least a few weeks of food you'd already eat by now? People are going to freak the fuck out all at once and you're going to die in some supermarket riot

>>11382107
absolutely this, and its still pretty "optimistic" we dont really know whats actually happening right now, but considering China it doesnt look good at all

>>11382107

R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf

>>11364007
ur nan could die.