/sci/ - Science & Math

>>11348045
He forgot to factor in fracking and new technology for deep sea drilling.

>>11348045
This arrogant, alarmist Jew should NEVER be allowed to live this book (which was probably a cashgrab) down.

>>11348045
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

>>11348045

(((DAVID)))
(((GOODSTEIN)))

>>11348045
we did hit peak CONVENTIONAL oil
back in 1900, you could literally just dig a 2m deep hole and it would fill up with oil and you could literally just use a bucket
50 years later, you only needed to drill pumps to extract it from about 1 km into a porous layer saturated with oil and the pressure would do most of the work
Now, you need to dig at least 2 km (often deeper - Deepwater Horizon well was 10km deep), the oil is often inside the rock itself, so you first need to crack the bedrock (shale) and pump tons of slurry to help it push out (scraping the bottom of the older wells).

>>11348055
>>11348087
More (from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Out_of_Gas:_The_End_of_the_Age_of_Oil):
>Even if coal and natural gas are substituted for some of the oil, human civilization will start to run out of fossil fuels by the end of the 21st century.[3]
Natural gas is $1.86 now.
It was over $6 when he wrote his Chicken Little, popsci pamphlet.
It's so cheap, due to OVERPRODUCTION, that there's an ongoing wave of bankruptcies in the sector.

>>11348045
>Oil demand will shortly exceed the production capacity of even the largest suppliers.

They’ll just increase production. That’s how economics work.

Reminder that oil resources won’t run out for at minimum two centuries.

Alarmist exaggerating kikery aside, do you retards think that there's infinite amount of oil?

>>11348142
Heavy oil, light oil, shale, and other sources offer centuries of oil reserves. We can dispose of oil as a necessary resource by 2200 Lol.

>>11348142
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin

>>11348045
Here's a lecture he gave:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vLZr09kD34&list=PLC24C88F402A718C1

>>11348045
buy a Buzz, problem solved

>>11348053
That image is nice, but it fails to consider that demand also grew at a very high rate. We can have the biggest oil output, and it still could be insufficient.

>Goodstein

>>11348049
And you forgot to factor the underlying capitalist system dictating that something must either produce a revenue or it shall not be done for long.
https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/12/18/fracking-finances-record-oil-production-fuzzy-math

The truth is that the remaining high-hanging wells have a dropping EROI every next year and therefor a rising economic unfeasibility, and it cannot continue this way with people pretending that the lack of profits doesn't exist without them eventually running out of capital and bankrupting all these fracking companies with negative cash flows. The society we're running right now is the post-peak oil one where everyone pretends that things are alright and that there are more important problems than this, but the truth is that we're well on the track to a Malthusian catastrophe. No, we won't have a Mad Max societal collapse but what we'll have is an ever-rising inequality up to the revival of literal slavery as the accumulation of resources into few people intensifies with their scarcity since the output of everything will drop in relation to the price of energy going up. Food imported into cities will become quite expensive and so will they die out in favor of the rural life, global trade will die out excluding strategic resources and everyone will become more static and reluctant to travel. All of that will happen in a single panic on oil price that will be out of any organization's or nation's control, after which we immediately wake up in this new environment right on the next day. The children born right now will be ones who'll have to compete with more people for less jobs and that can only bring terrible things to our society, like a boom of prostitution as a means to make a living (as if that trend isn't already apparent on the internet), along with wars as a means to revitalize your economy trough plunder.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WPB2u8EzL8

>>11348045
I'm old.
I've been hearing about an oil-depleted world since the '70s.
We're producing more than ever.

Economics will make oil and gas too valuable to burn. Well before easy exploitable reserves are exhausted.

>>11349451
Production and demand usualy corelates

Hey I read that book. Neat.

>>11348045
Here's the more important question:
Is there enough oil left to build and maintain a sufficient number of Nuclear, solar and wind power plants in the next 30 years in order to maintain economic growth?
The EU is scrambling to set up power to liquid operations in Northern Africa but it might be too little too late. And of course all this will require a complete revamp of power infrastructure, especially in the West.
We certainly have enough technologies to replace oil as our main resource for power in order to secure post-industrial societies but the economy might halt or shrink and global wealth decrease dramatically.

bump

>>11349483
You're economically illiterate. If fracking isn't profitable, the investment dollars being pumped into it have to come from some other part of the economy. Therefore, the increase in the price of oil that you say will come when investors pull out of fracking and production drops is already priced in to the cost of goods, since some investor has to be making enough excess profit on something to invest money in fracking.

Once production of oil drops, the cost of goods will increase in the short run, but it will drop back down in the long run since everything was already overpriced anyway and increasing price any further will shift us away from equilibrium.

>>11352079
Economy is not just electric power, not just industry. Many EU countries already made a shift to renewable energy. Nuclear and coal may almost vanish within the next 30 years, it's no longer viable.

>>11349444
how much does cost nice quafs

priginalll

>>11353811
Objectively false even in the nation you just brought up-Ironic-the UK gets about 1/4 of its power from nuclear and is taking steps to build more nuclear power plants. China is building nuclear plants and investing hugely in fusion research, as well as renewable energy.

>>11348045
>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHD4U2q_p4c
David Goodstein's book Out of Gas, is cited in this 20/20 story from 12 years ago, predicted peak oil catastrophe.
Peter Huber, a lawyer with an engineering degree, interviewed in that 20/20 story, called BS, and was ultimately proven correct.
Oil is now nearly one third of the price it was when that video was uploaded.
Here's another alarmist physicist, David MacKay, Cambridge Department of Climate Change Chief Scientific Advisor, predicting not only the end of hydrocarbons, but that renewables won't cut it:
>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFosQtEqzSE
Of course he also wrote a book.
Thankfully, he lived just long enough (2016) to see himself proven wrong.

>>11348045
Is it possible we can run out of Tobacco?

This is a much more important question to me, I will be really screwed if there is a shortage and the prices go up a lot

Is it possible to secure a future that always has tobacco?

Fusion energy pls

>>11352865
>If fracking isn't profitable, the investment dollars being pumped into it have to come from some other part of the economy
That's not entirely true since the U.S is just printing money.
It can very well be true that fracking is a loss and that loss is being hidden by government and banks just printing new money.

>>11353848
most nuclear plants in the UK will retire in the next 5 years, in 10 years only one will be left, even this will retire until 2035. a single new plant is being build but nobody knows if it will ever be finished
fusion is a meme,

>>11348045
Demand is higher than supply for every commodity. Price takes up the difference. Agricultural equipment could run on wood gas if needed. This is not the end of the world. The first thing to go should be flights and unnecessary ship freight. Suppliers will be more local. This is a good thing. No more cheap plastic crap from the far east. Cheap straw and hemp crap, from the next town over, will take its place.

>>11354084
fuck tobacco.
I would be more worried about Coffee!
We better not run out of coffee you motherfuckers!

I was pushing this back in 05/06

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FfmcCg1rlQ

And now we have shale oil and are a total oil/gas/energy exporter.

Disregard this I suck cocks.

>>11355465
I remember seeing this scaredoc on TV in 2006 on Discovery:
>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiNtrOS88rs
>It's 2016, and the world is plunge into crisis!"

>>11355465
I remember seeing this scaredoc on TV in 2006 on Discovery:
>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9eTrcagGrlg
>It's 2016, and the world is plunge into crisis!"

>>11354382
except they will keep getting extended.
Nuclear plants were built when radiation damage was still being studied, and at this time we can go back to our reactor designs and decide that they reactors can be run 'safely' for another 5/10/15 years.
I bet the current power plants will be extended till about 2050, at which point we will be able to replace critical components (like the core) only and keep using the building for another 50/100 years.

tl;dr
Nuclear plants were built ultra-ultra conservative. We now understand the danger limits and can extend reactor operation lifetime.

https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/united-kingdom.aspx
https://www.mace.manchester.ac.uk/research/impact/life-extension-nuclear-reactors/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_the_United_Kingdom#Operating

>>11348045
its all based on bullshit propaganda about "peak oil". when peak oil was thought up japan and china were thought to have no oil. also america was thought to be out of oil on the mainland aside from alaska and i dont think it factored in scottland having oil or ireland having oil... or any where else that isnt land locked because any country that isnt land locked has oil

oil isnt dead dinos and plants mostly. its bacterial waste . its microbial poo. and the oceans have tons of microbes and some like to be deep in the earth . fuckers have been found 2 miles deep. the main reason why the oceans help probably is the constant supply of water in the upper crust

>>11354382
>Chad anon disproves thousands of actual scientists by saying “its a meme”

>>11356848
Why not replace them with more advanced modern and future reactor designs?

>>11353811
>Many EU countries already made a shift to renewable energy.
Which ones?

>>11348045

>>11356906
All of them.

>>11348142
Doesn't matter, fuel can be synthesized.

>>11356896
Prime Minister we have to make a decision:
1. Spend £20M inspecting and extending current reactor lifetimes
or
2. Spend £100M finding a suitable site for a new reactor site. Spend another £100M convincing the locals that they should let us build a reactor there. then there is the multi-billion cost of building a new reactor, which will not finish for about 20 years. assuming nothing extends the time or cost of the projects. Also we will need to dismantle the old reactors and the sites, and remediate them which will take 50-100 years.

Keep in mind, my wise Prime Minister, option 2 will not finish while you're alive, and credit will go to someone else, while option 1 can be implemented within a few months/years and we can add the CO2 reduction to your statistics to make you more electable in 3 year time.

Also if option one goes tits up we can blame whoever built it, our hands were tied. If option 2 goes bad you will have to finish your political career and spend the next 30 years writing auto-biographies.

Sir? what should we do.

Planets of second generation stars, like Sol, are formed with H, CH4,NH3, etc. Small ones like earth lose light molecules like CH4 from the atmosphere over time but the bulk of the methane becomes trapped underground. Pressure, temperature and time turn it into ethane, propane, butane, ....octane, ...., i.e. oil - abiotic oil. How else can you find oil 10 miles below the surface. That's why old depleted, abandoned oil wells just fill right back up over time. The sky is (not) falling.

>>11357095
>2. Spend £100M finding a suitable site for a new reactor site. Spend another £100M convincing the locals that they should let us build a reactor there. then there is the multi-billion cost of building a new reactor, which will not finish for about 20 years. assuming nothing extends the time or cost of the projects. Also we will need to dismantle the old reactors and the sites, and remediate them which will take 50-100 years.

No, dumbass. Just upgrade the existing reactor into a new kind of reactor.

>>11357136
>Small ones like earth lose light molecules like CH4 from the atmosphere over time but the bulk of the methane becomes trapped underground.

That’s natural gas not oil.

> How else can you find oil 10 miles below the surface.

Oil is heavy.

> That's why old depleted, abandoned oil wells just fill right back up over time

No it isn’t. They do this because oil that wasn’t initially removed will fill the space left by the removed oil. I don’t know if you ever noticed but if you take a bucket of water out of the ocean, a bucket-shaped hole isn’t left in the ocean.

>>11348045
>not knowing that oil is naturally produced by the earth
>believing the jew shilling of oil shortage
How else are they gonna make money if not by low supply

>>11357246
parallel analogies:
Why didn't I put my Ferrari engine into a Fiat panda and participate in NASCAR?
Why don't we just put nuclear warheads into a musket, that way we have more fire-power?
Why can't I pour hydrogen and oxygen into my petrol fuel tank and go faster?
Can't I just mount a jet engine to my balloon and travel around the world in 8 days?
Just mount that quantum computer core into my AM3+ motherboard so I can minecraft in parallel servers!

This is how you sound.

>>11357246
Tell me how easy it is to swap one reactor type into another in this picture?
It's not as easy as plugging your laptop into a different power socket around your house

>>11357246
>No, dumbass. Just upgrade the existing reactor into a new kind of reactor.
We can do this, We just need to spend at least 10 billions to dismantle the old reactors and the sites, and remediate them which will take 50-100 years. Spend another £100M convincing the locals that they should let us build a new reactor there. Then there is the multi-billion cost of building a new reactor, which will not finish for about 20 years. Assuming nothing extends the time or cost of the projects you will get an outdated fission reactor on the old site just the day fusion power becomes viable.

>>11348045
I know I shouldn't say this but I'm a geophysicist and I believe in the abiogenic petroleum origin hypothesis, yes, to a majority of earth science tests it's bullshit but I do believe. I wouldn't worry about oil anytime soon.

>>11348045
>Goodstein

>>11354382
Every single statement you made in that paragraph is factually wrong. That's impressive, even for /sci/ standards.

>>11357048
So we should use nuclear power plants to synthesize fossil fuels to burn?

>>11348087
what's the significance of the triple brackets. Is David Goodstein is a sleazy politician or CEO?

>>11348045
>Droolers rationalizing, frothing at the mouth
The amount of bloated CONSUUUUUUUUUUMER COPE in this thread is amusing.

>>11359854
official closure dates for all nuclear power stations in the UK
2023 Hinkley Point B and Hunterston B
2024 Hartlepool and Heysham 1
2028 Dungeness B
2030 Heysham 2 and Torness
2035 Sizewell B

Hinkley Point C is under construction since 2018, there are already delays and problems with construction and costs are getting higher and higher. A similar plant is being build in France since 2007 and it's still not operational.
The UK needs a nuclear reactor to stay a nuclear power, but there is no demand for more then one.
Also there is always a risk of a nuclear plant blowing up somewhere in the world. This usually shifts public opinion and delays or kills many nuclear projects.

>>11357252
Oil is simply a hydrocarbon (CH molecules) found below 44,000 feet. The moon Titan has more oil than earth.

Diamonds aren't biotic, but made naturally in the Earths mantle, but oil? Oh that's definitely made my living organisms even though it's never been replicated.

>>11348142

There is an infinite amount of that which oil is for, which is one and same with that by which oil is.

>>11350034
We're also using more than ever.