/sci/ - Science & Math

>>10938934
Peak oil was a 2003 meme. Then 2004 was a great meme year, which made everyone move on and forget about it.

Fracking and natural gas added a shitload of energy to our available reserves. We still need to get away from fossil fuels because of the damage they cause, but we have enough to continue using them for at least another century.

>>10938934
Not actual science, just a discredited economic conspiracy theory mistakenly interpreted by economically illiterate doomsday tellers who should have never been allowed in an editing room, but were.

The entire concept of any commodity "peaking" makes absolutely no sense outside of a deterministic world view where economic agents hate money and just passively watch as every single part of production lines crumble because of a lack of supply of said commodity. In reality, when oil prices peak, they:

>make deeper reserves (which cost more to extract oil) more competitive price-wise, thus expanding supply. See Brazil's pre-salt histeria when oil prices peaked last decade
>peak oil has never been seen. Contrary to what may believe, oil prices just "don't get more expensive as time goes". A price model for oil over time would be such an idiotic idea that the error would tend to reach prohibitive height in three months of comparisons.
There's less oil on Earth today than in the 90s, yet you can fill your tank for cheaper and drive more.

>>10938970
It will be fun to revisit your opinion when it takes as much energy to get oil out of the ground as is stored in the oil

>>10938934
Because current economically viable reserves are still good for decades. There’s a LOT more that isn’t economically viable right now that we could conceivably extract with current methods and also a lot that we can’t, as well as doubtless undiscovered deposits.

>>10939141
However, we should obviously still stop using it.

>>10939147
Will it be economically feasible for renewables to replace fossil fuels within our lifetimes?

>>10939147
>>10939141
good posts. Things like fracking just make things more accessible, or better refining methods make shitty oil suddenly viable, ect.

>>10939157
Maybe. Maybe not. I’m no soothsayer. A combination of nuclear, hydro, solar, and wind could satisfy our energy needs with sharing across international borders. Solar power produced in the Sahara can be sent all the way to Arabia or Europe without much energy loss using modern cables. I don’t really give a shit if it’s more expensive, it’s better than increasing the CO2 concentration to 1000PPM and beyond, and we’ll have to eventually because there’s not enough coal in the ground to sustain current usage rates on historical timescales.

>>10938934
For each peak oil chart, there is another chart showing oil that can be developed for $0.01 more. The peak oil memes do not loudly proclaim that each peak oil chart only shows oil at a certain price, and that higher priced oil is always available on a price chart that peaks higher to the side.

Overall, the misleading issue in "peak oil" is that that the oil charts do not have a price on them. If oil peaks at $X in 2019, then there is still plenty of oil available at $X+$0.01. Each curve shows oil that can be exploited at a certain price point, but there is always plenty of other oil that can be exploited for an extra $0.01 per barrel.

Even if the curve of oil that can be exploited at $X peaks in 2019, there is another oil chart of oil that can be brought to marker profitably at $X+0.01.

>>10939157
If you define our lifetimes as like 2100 at the latest then yeah probably

>>10939194
>it's ok! the price of oil will just go up as the economic reserves go down, and that won't matter at all!

Fracking ended peak oil but it's even worse than simply drilling for oil in terms environmental impact. I thought the peak oil thing was about environmental awareness but it was more about satiating an oil addiction. Sorry if that's too dramatic.

>>10938934
>why does nobody seem to talk about it or care much about it anymore?
Why do you think, anon?
People have moved to the next doomsday, chicken-little story since this one flopped.

>>10939370
Peak oil is literally the only X-risk that the market will actually handle, because it actually has to.

>>10939356
It’s easy to be short-sighted. I don’t want to fuck over 4000 CE nibbas.

>>10939157
It's economically feasible now. If the power grid were socialized then you would see more renewable energy installations being hooked up. The biggest problem is replacing ICE vehicles with electric vehicles or providing them with a carbon neutral fuel. The advantage to the carbon neutral fuel is that vehicles would need very little modification. The advantage to EVs is that they can double as energy storage for the grid.

>>10938934
Why do you think, anon?
People prefer not to talk about stuff that's got "no money in it".

>>10938934
Same reason alcohol coke junkies don't like to talk about the fact that their noses are imploding.

>>10938970
>Not actual science, just a discredited economic conspiracy theory mistakenly interpreted by economically illiterate doomsday tellers who should have never been allowed in an editing room, but were.
Nothing to do with economics. There are hard limits on the amount of energy one can obtain from any resource. Or are you that same economics pseudo religious brainwashed moron who think we can mine an infinite supply of uranium from sea water?

>The entire concept of any commodity "peaking" makes absolutely no sense outside of a deterministic world view where economic agents hate money and just passively watch as every single part of production lines crumble because of a lack of supply of said commodity.

Preach, brother:
Go forth and multiply endlessly; consumeth to thy contentment and decadent pleasure
Become content and bloated feasting on the worlds vast resources bounty
For the greater thy appetite and the greater thy hunger, the more thou shalt be granted to quench thy thirst
So sayeth the good book of economics

>>10939405
There’s billions of tons of uranium dissolved in seawater but I don’t know how efficient extracting it is.

>>10939379
Massive subsidies for EV's I'm talking like the government pays up to 20k, with the only condition that you use V2G and renewables would be cheaper in virtually every case than natural gas overnight.

>>10939576
To be fair natural gas produces less CO2 for its energy than oil or coal does.

>>10939580
It's better but it's not good enough, though I suspect emissions dont look as good when you factor in all the methane released under the table when its extracted.

>>10939585
https://www.biogeosciences.net/16/3033/2019/

>>10939366

And process increases make it viable for companies to pay surveyors, engineers, blue collar drillers, and chemists to get at and refine it.

But I'd prefer a movement to EVs for city commuters powered by a nuclearized energy grid.

>>10938934

>>10938934
Is peak oil a qualia?

>>10939379
isn't lithium mining atrocious ecologically

>>10939696
No worse than fossil fuels. Besides, unless you're putting them in electric vehicles you can use greener options like saltwater batteries which are also cheaper.

>>10939576
I would be into that. The US spends somewhere around ten billion dollars in fossil fuel subsidies so let's take it from there.

>>10939157

No, because fusion nuclear fusion and thorium reactors will come online first.

>>10939743
neat

>>10939696
Who cares? It doesn’t produce CO2 and lithium batteries are pretty easy to recycle.

>>10939760
>tech that doesn't exist will come online before tech that does
>dw bro, we'll just invent a new thing totally

>>10939760
Nuclear might as well be renewable

>>10939765

Thoriun reactor is already a thing. The only reason why we dont use them is because we wanted to produce nukes too.

>>10939696
Not really to be honest, most resources are either in Autrailian deserts or the Atacama desert. Extraction mostly consists of pumping brine from massive underground reservoirs.

>>10939774
>already a thing
not really, small reactors are non-trivial to scale up
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElulEJruhRQ

>because we wanted to produce nukes too.
this definitely punched a big hole in Th's r&d budget

>>10938934
its a bullshit idea drempt up by oil companies that was debunked. they proved that any country that isnt land locked has oil

its made by microbes mostly. its not dead plants and animals its mostly microbe poop. guess what ? in the ocean these guys thrive... on fish poop particles buried deep in the sand... that gets covered up by more sand as erosion is still a thing and they are so small they can burrow deep. its like those fuckers that went 2 miles down from the surface into the earth that are anaerobic

the oil companies said japan didnt have oil. they found it. they said china didnt have oil. they found it. they said african countries didnt have oil they found it. they said america ran out of oil in the 70s america did not

>>10939813
peak in US was around 1990
>>10939636

>>10939891
>peak in US was around 1990
US oil production is higher right now than it was in 1990.

Fracking was invented some time shortly after peak oil, now we get extra spircy hot water with more poisonous chemicals in our nearby lakes

>>10939903
so is oil consumption
you don't really understand the meaning of peak, do you. try reading the book

>>10939921
Oil will never peak until it is obsolete.

>>10939922
>i don't understand exponential growth

>>10938934
We started investing in alternative sources of energy and people stopped freaking out. Peak oil is still potentially a threat, however other threats are now greater.

>>10938934
>happened to Peak Oil
it happened, conventional oil peaked, now we have to mine tar sands to meed our demand, it's harder, more expensive and poisoning our water

>>10938940
>Peak oil was a 2003 meme.
>t. born after 1993

>>10938934
I work on oil drilling rigs.
Because like coal and gas, there is still a shitload of oil left. With constant discoveries found every year we won`t run out of oil any time soon. There is enough oil right now to cover the worlds needs for 100+ years. Yes, and that includes China`s, India's future demands. Peak Oil hasn't happened yet, we are still climbing that hill. No one currently living on Earth will see Peak Oil in their lifetime. Don`t worry, all is good.

>>10940147
[citation needed]

>>10938970
>The entire concept of any commodity "peaking" makes absolutely no sense outside of a deterministic world view where economic agents hate money and just passively watch as every single part of production lines crumble because of a lack of supply of said commodity.

wtf does this even mean? can you explain in words instead of this pseudo-religious group think garbage?

>>10940079
>mmmmmmmm
>I love the smell of "economic growth" in the morning
>t. CONSUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUMER

>>10938940
Lrn2meme fgt pls

>>10938934
Basically, >>10940002
No one cares anymore, because countries are trying to reduce their oil usage without accounting for sense or reason.

>>10940671
Heh heh, consumer guy strikes again. I like you

>>10940732
thanks. nice to know someone is entertained