/sci/ - Science & Math

Its not. Origin of life could be a GF though.

>>10885298
The most plausible answer is developing multicellular life and sexual reproduction as the great filters. Its all just bacteria-like organisms out there.

>>10885293
because your assuming that they are driving a spaceship faster then the speed of light

Believing aliens exists is like believing the Christian god: Its plausible, but all of our laws are completely agnostic towards the concept. There is no reason to think we will every make contact with aliens unless they appear to us

>>10885407
>other life forms existing = magic sky daddy

>>10885418
In an infinite universe both exist at probability = 1

>>10885424
In an infinite universe isn't there also a 100% chance that the universe would be finite?

>>10885418
How is it any different then saying God exists?
We can conceive of what it means to be the Christian god, at least in human form (jesus). It's entirley possible Jesus turned water to wine etc, because we can conceive of it, and quantum mechanical law even technically says its possible, just very very unlikely. This is the exact same reasoning applied to the great filter, fermi paradox issue.

The laws of physics allow for it, but its completely unknowable
Ask yourself if there really a difference between concepts of the metaphysical realm and the "physical realm that we cant access at all"

>>10885407
>because your assuming that they are driving a spaceship faster then the speed of light
What? Where is OP making that assumption?

>There is no reason to think we will every make contact with aliens unless they appear to us
What do you mean? Wouldn't we expect to receive some messages or visits by robots / uploaded astronauts (Fermi Paradox)?

>>10885447
>What? Where is OP making that assumption?
In order for intelligence to contact us, they need some spaceship, radiowave, message that goes faster then the speed of light. With the age and size of our universe, going light speed wont cut it.You need something faster and this is is physically impossible. Of course it is possible given they live within the neighborhood, but still ridiculously unlikely on account of how far away galaxys are from each other, and the fact they are generally accelerating away from each other

>What do you mean? Wouldn't we expect to receive some messages or visits by robots / uploaded astronauts (Fermi Paradox)?
That's my point, there is no reason to think that we will ever get the message, though it is certainty possible. Im saying it is akin to waiting for signs from a metaphysical realm because that is literally what it is. We have no idea what reality is beyond what we see.

this is heavily speculative and earth centric. Personally not good enough

>>10885474
>In order for intelligence to contact us, they need some spaceship, radiowave, message that goes faster then the speed of light. With the age and size of our universe, going light speed wont cut it.You need something faster and this is is physically impossible. Of course it is possible given they live within the neighborhood, but still ridiculously unlikely on account of how far away galaxys are from each other, and the fact they are generally accelerating away from each other
Why are you making this assumption? It is false. They could have had plenty of time. You're just thinking in terms of human timespans or even known biological timespans.

>That's my point, there is no reason to think that we will ever get the message, though it is certainty possible. Im saying it is akin to waiting for signs from a metaphysical realm because that is literally what it is. We have no idea what reality is beyond what we see.
By the logic of the Fermi Paradox we'd expect it except if one of the many resolutions to it are true. We can't make any conclusion on whether we should expect it but based on avilable data it would seem rather likely. Also why do you compare it to signs from a metaphysical realm?

>>10885293
>All planets have an equator where life would thrive and food would be in abundance
>Members of an alien race could migrate to the poles and through harsh circumstances evolve to become intellectually and socially superior
>Eventually once they become developed enough to travel they'll re-encounter their equatorial counterparts and attempt to integrate
>Polar races become outbred and replaced by inferior/violent equatorial races who now have access to their technologies and infrastructure, to the point where they become dependent on it (much like their equatorial food)
>Due to incompetence the equatorial races cause the infrastructure they relied on to collapse, causing the extinction or severe regression of their species
There I solved the great filter for you

>>10885519
Very funny only you forgot that all of civilization started near the equator by equatorial races.

>>10885539
And all life starts in the ocean, yet leaving it is necessary for advancement. What's your point?

>>10885293
Universe is infinite since for ever

>>10885519
>Polar races become outbred and replaced by inferior/violent equatorial races

>>>/pol/

>>10885407
>it's plausible
Not in the slightest, you can't just make any dumbfuck claim you want with no supporting evidence and go "it's plausible"

>>10885609
We, Humans, are the living proof that intelligent life is possible in our universe. It's unlikely that we are alone.

>>10885620 I think he was referring to the Christian god nonsense he wrote.

>>10885602
>no refute, only gatekeeping
>>>/sci/
oh wait lol

>>10885394
>>10885519
Only decent argument so far.

It is entirely possible, yes, that a life-giving region leads to lackadaisical perspectives that deplete and crash the biome. The rate of macroscopic biosphere collapse will lessen with each layer of life, and that fact that we're at mammals means we can start to measure the biocomplexity that results from a major extinction event. Since we have multiple of those in our past, there's a decent probability that we're the freaks that will last long enough to get there.

The pic, simply put, is wrong because it considers all forms of life to be stopped by one great filter. There are numerous filters for numerous types of life. Each species that reaches a new evolutionary rung will likely deplete its surroundings and cause a new type of collapse, and for us that's electricity.

Looking forward to what the microbes do when the magnetosphere is gone.

>>10885394
it started when matter finally gained an urge to build muscles. Didn't work for me tho, I can't build muscle.

>>10885394
>sexual reproduction as the great filters
>tfw

>>10885620
>It's unlikely that we are alone.
why do people always say this as if we have any gauge whatsoever of any of the probabilities involved in life developing, let alone intelligent life

>muh drake equation

>>10885293
What a meme. There could be a civilization equal to humanity, on Proxima b, and have no way of knowing. Humans lack the technology. The entire fermi paradox is built on the assumptions using human technology and dyson spheres, etc. What a joke. It's the equivalent of taking a cup of seawater and saying dolphins dont exist.

>>10885407
Gods are supposed to exist beyond physicality itself so the infinite universe argument doesn't work.

>>10885657
The pattern used to be the other way around. Things change. This time too shall pass.

>>10885394
I disagree, both of those things have evolved multiple times independently on Earth alone. As far as we know, all life has a single common origin. I'd reckon that just getting bacteria in the first place is what's so rare.

The great filter is nukes

And were arent close to passing it, we are just at the start

What if the stars don't exist at all? Isn't that a more reasonable conclusion?

Looking up at the universe, we wonder why there's such immense amounts of mass and energy going to waste. Surely someone should be using it.

It makes more sense if we're living in a simulation and the stars are just a complex skybox.

>>10885435

>>10885394
>the virgin binary fission vs. the chad syngamy

>>10885407
you're*

>>10885293
It's even worse, at least in our galaxy. There is no type III civilisation. Nobody made it. Type III means galactic empire. A galactic empire would have colonized the entire galaxy, We would be part of it. We are not.
/thread

>>10886236
>primitive retards thought the opposite of what you do
>this is somehow an argument

>>10886193
Nothing is unique is our universe. We are not unique.

>>10886795
>The Romans were a bunch of primitive retarded
I bet you think aliens built the pyramids.

>>10886927
Ancient Alien theorists say yes

>>10886298
>I disagree, both of those things have evolved multiple times independently on Earth alone.
Source?

>>10885293
>extinction & evolution = great filter
Herp Derp

>Type III civilization
Sci-fi

>>10885293
This isn't science, it's science fiction

>>10885293
The assumption that all life in the Milky Way is extinct because we don't see any K3 civilizations is juvenile. The Great Filter assumes that all life in the universe decided they must become a K3, expanded into space and then were all wiped out by "something". There are so many variables in how a civilization develops that it feels like a generalization. It also assumes that a species goes extinct when civilization collapses. As for the communication issue, aliens may use different wavelengths to communicate and even then their messages might be encrypted.

>>10887106
It could be like star trek. Your civilization needs to pass a certain marker before it is considered to join the club and they make contact with you.

>>10885293
It assumes that Humanity is "S P E C I A L" because all the gross ugly aliens are dead.

>>10886795
Germanics used to be the primitive ones at that point of time. Later on selection kicked in due to civilization and they got to the point where they are at now

>>10887106
wut if they r all hiding from le ebin space demonz xd

>>10885441
Because we know that life managed to form at least 1 time, yet as far as we know, a god has been created 0 times.

>>10887106
>The Great Filter assumes that all life in the universe decided they must become a K3, expanded into space and then were all wiped out by "something".
Wrong.
It says that even if one civ had gone K3 we would know.
Then it runs the numbers and concludes that even if it were mere "very unlikely" it would still have happened by now.

>>10885293
Because it says "almost no species" then switches to "one species."

Clearly an error.

>>10886298
Earth was populated by life almost instantly once conditions were suitable - life is almost as old as Earth itself. The reason we don't see new abiogenesis is probably because all the precursors are just food for existing life. The competition is too strong to endure.

I have a theory why we don't see a galaxy full of aliens but it's too good to share here.

>>10885474
>In order for intelligence to contact us, they need some spaceship, radiowave, message that goes faster then the speed of light.

Wrong. A small fraction of speed of light is enough to spread all over the galaxy in just a few millions of years, an instant on cosmic timescales.

>>10885519
Good post.

>>10886775
>It's even worse, at least in our galaxy. There is no type III civilisation. Nobody made it.

And the same is true for another 100,000 galaxies we looked at. Something is not right here..

https://phys.org/news/2015-04-advanced-civilizations-earth-obvious-galaxies.html

>>10885293
The great filter is that space is extremely big and transitioning from a Type II civilization to a Type III civilization probably isn't worth it for most Type IIs.

>>10887106
>The Great Filter assumes that all life in the universe decided they must become a K3
No, it assumes that at least some tiny part did

>>10886236
Did he mean negroes when he said Africans, or literally just inhabitants of what was then known as the province/region of Africa (i.e. caucasians and semites)?

SciFi is a larp and progress is a substitute for religion for those enlighten by own intelligence.

>>10887534
he meant north Africans, basically today's Meds (not even Arabs)

>>10887540
It's always shit like this when people try to spin history to vindicate blacks.

Let me tell you what’s wrong. You’re too arrogant.

Around a month ago, a 100m wide asteroid passed within 1/5th of our moon’s orbit

https://www.google.com/amp/s/phys.org/news/2019-08-asteroid-approach-eyes-sky.amp

We’ve only started to explore space for less than a hundred years. Wait 100 years. If we don’t see anything, I’ll consider the filter

the universe is big
like really big
even if you send out a massive scream, like how we're doing, it might look like a small sand grain in the "fuck you" scale universe we live in
I dunno man why do you care so much? if aliens are actually real I'd be fucking scared as shit because they'd probably just enslave us or beat us up like nothing, it'd suck

>>10885435
no lmao. in a set of repeating random numbers, there is a 100% chance you'll see every integer, but you wont find and groups or tensors. an infinite universe would just imply a 100% chance of every physically possible arrangement of matter being present.

>>10887524 You don't need to be a type 3 civilization to spread around the galaxy. If we manage to solve the problems currently threatening our civilization we might very well build such robot spacecraft within our lifetime. But maybe it would be better if we don't or wait longer. This a reason for why it's not unlikely that the Great Filter is close: we're close to tech that would confirm an hypothesis of the Fermi Paradox.

>>10889435
>an infinite universe would just imply a 100% chance of every physically possible arrangement of matter being present.
No, it wouldn't. (At larger scales.)

Is there some reason why it's implausible for there to simply be a handful of other earth-like planets out there with civilizations basically at or near the same level as ours and maybe even some of them have learned to stabilize and not destroy themselves?
Because to me this seems like a very boring but realistic notion

I just don't understand why there either has to be some super advanced aliens at some point or a lot of super dead aliens except that people really just want that to be true because it's a lot cooler than reality and makes the X-Files theme play in my head when I think about it

>>10887523
The further galaxies are from us, the further back in time they are. A galactic empire could be there now, but we'd not notice it.

Life is recent I tend to think is the reason, which is a bit bolstered by stuff like how the earlier universe had extremely active galactic nuclei, more frequent supernovae and higher amounts of background radiation that would have limited the development of complex life quite a bit. Those that wouldn't be affected, like those under the ice are trapped under kilometers of ice. They're not leaving those worlds. Intergalactic Stars have the complication of being very spread out, even by interstellar standards and it's not clear how capable of making worlds like ours those stars are.

>>10890507
(Cont'd)
Additionally stuff like phosphorus may have been more rare in the earlier universe. Other phenomena like kilonovas may also factor.

>>10890403
because "There can be only one" galactic empire in a galaxy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEJ8lpCQbyw

If you got the capability to do it you have to do it or you will be wiped out by some other advanced civilisation.

>>10887634
Thing is, we see massive things in space easily enough. Some civilization that molds and shifts its galaxy would be painfully obvious.

It could well be the gap between interplanetary and galactic civilization is even wider than we think. Spreading across a galaxy takes millions of years, but that time is cosmically small compared to the ten billion of years it seems planets have existed. However it could well be that like stars, there's different populations of planets with compositional differences depending on the Epoch those planets formed.

>>10886775
>There is no type III civilisation.
The kardeshev scale isn't exactly scientific. It's just some very broad strokes interpretation of possible levels of the evolution of civilizations.
People are generally bad at predicting how the future will turn out because breakthroughs are usually paradigm shifts that redefine what you thought you knew before.

>>10890553
The question is why is it that no civ seems intent on stuff like reshaping galaxies. Yes the tech changes and paradigms change, but it does seem odd they don't do stuff like move astronomical objects around or make dyson swarms within the known universe.

>>10885293
How can a "commonly achieved" evolutionary step happen after the great filter?

>>10890559
>reshaping galaxies
No good reason for it. At that point you're adapted to living in interstellar space indefinitely.
Once you get to the point of a stellar diaspora you've got so much space and resources at your disposal that there's no reason to get the population density required to have dyson spheres or stellar lifting.
The shittiest explanation may end up being that you don't need galaxy sized particle accelerators to experiment next level physical theory, maybe everything unifies neatly with just a little more, and you have physics licked, but it turns out you can't really do that much neat star trek tier sci fi fantasy horse shit with it.
The point is speculation on it is kind of pointless since at this point it could be literally anything you can think of that would prove they don't exist, or that they do exist and we just don't know where to look.

>>10885293
The error is that those commonly achieved evolutionary leaps may not be so common.

Even if you get complex life, that isn't a hard tee of intelligent life. Even if you have intelligent life. That isn't a mean they'll make civilizations. Even if you have civilizations, that isn't a mean they'll become an interstellar species.

>>10890598
The idea I am getting at is that we can already rule out some stuff simply because we just don't observe it and if it was possible we'd have easily observed it because some galaxy restructuring would be painfully obvious even to Hubble.

>>10885293
It assumes all lifeforms are as stupid as humans and would expand as wantonly and conform to the narrow mindset of technical advancement

>>10890608
They're still going through keppler data, and TESS is a massive data set.
I would wait until that's been thoroughly mined before anyone should start placing bets.

>>10885293
It’s more likely there are dozens of great filters rather than one. Due to the scale of the galaxy if it were only one filter, it would have to be so absurdly close to impossible to bypass that it is unreasonable for it to exist in a way that any life at all can bypass it. Instead you probably have hundreds or thousands of filters with odds ranging from better than coin flip to lottery odds that come together to cause the apparent lack of intelligent life in our galaxy.

>>10890753 I think that's what those "commonly achieved evolutionary leaps" could be seen as. "Commonly achieved" is a somewhat misappropiate here - it could also be commonly not achieved - it only makes sense of common is meant in relation to the great filter which is almost never overcome (which is why it's called great filter and not just another filter).
>>10890611 No, it doesn't.
>>10890578 By being commonly achieved by any of the few species that make it past the great filter.
>>10890600 The things you names could be some of the evolutionary leaps. And it doesn't have to be common for many such civilizations to exist due to the sheer number of habitable exoplanets.

>>10886876
True brainlet

>>10885424
>its infinite so every possiblity habbens in it!!!
What a retard

>>10885424
if I were to grant you infinity, that logic is still retarded.

If I'm holding an apple in one hand, and an orange in the other and tell you to guess which hand is holding a grape--given infinite tries, I will never be holding a grape; it's absolutely impossible. So, given the laws of physics in our reality, it's (most likely) the case that any creator is similarly impossible.

>>10885407
>our laws are completely agnostic towards the concept

Wrong. The laws of chemistry and evolution do not require Earth to exist, just a planet like Earth.

Using Occam's Razor we can say that there are most likely aliens out there, and they most likely have never made contact with us.

>>10892261
Ok give me one (1) thing that is unique in our universe. You have one (1) day.

>>10892391
each day in the universe is unique. owned

>>10885519
so basically it was the space niggers that killed all the aliens

>>10892460
Prime factorisation

>>10892391
bitcoin

>>10885293
What is the y-axis?

>>10885507
I just want to point out from this picture that the "early birds" theory is incredibly likely, considering any alien that for instance lived a million years ago would have blotted out all the stars by now, even without faster than light speed. So, considering we still see stars, there are no civilizations much older than us.

>>10885539
The Levant isn't even close to the equator.

>>10892662
probably changes in evolution that don't go towards or against 'progress' towards a higher form of civilization.

>>10885293
Dyson spheres are undetectable with current telescopes if they have an efficiency above a certain arbitrarily assumed value.
https://www.tillett.info/2016/08/03/carnot-efficient-dyson-spheres-are-undetectable-by-infrared-surveys/

>>10892386
This

>>10892665
absolutely retarded reasoning

>>10885298
At this point is unlikely. It's a little dense to go through the details, but in essence, life may be an all too common result of driven systems achieving specifically tuned configuration that maximize dissipation of the input energy. Rather than try to type an essay on my phone, here's a link to a paper that talks about this although you need some stat mech to understand. Maybe i should make a thread at some point since it is actually amazing results in my view, specially since it follows directly from the thermodynamics.

https://arxiv.org/abs/1412.1875

>>10892304
There is actually a chance of that if you get into parallel realities or would consider an exact copy of you down to the atom with all your memories, circumstances, and life experiences exactly the same (but not the you that you are at the moment) you.
In fact even without that it’s entirely possible, for all we know we may be inside a simulation and said simulation’s creators could decide to swap a grape in for shits and giggles.

>>10892665
this

>>10892304
Sure, in a billion tries you'd never have a grape. Given infinite tries, you absolutely would have a grape in your hand at some point. You don't even need infinity, Graham's number of attempts would do just fine.

I solved the great filter problem.
Noble Metal incoming.

>>10892386
Occam'z razor is useless for science development

>>10892386
Actually the requirements for carbon based life are pretty strict.

>>10893283
We can take this a step further; to design an experiment is precisely to factor out the control variable that you know better than to dismiss.

>>10889435
99% of Chad aliens are drinking space booze and looking at space titties. Technological progress boost their marketing and plastical chirurgy at the same rate as in here.

There is 1% of nerd aliens looking for other life.

The Great Filter is the scale of the universe. No species has or will ever come up with the effort, put aside the wealth and dream up the ingenuity to make interstellar flight a reality before it's too late. Even we have had a few good ideas, but shelved them because the sacrifices, compromises and risks were too great and the payoff too small. Now we start seeing the end of the fossil-fueled industrial era, and it's looking more and more likely that it will have been our peak.

>>10893431
I think this is the real reason. By the time any species is able to develop the technology for interstellar flight they've already used up all of their natural resources. By the time we know how to get to other planets we'll have already used up all the fossil fuels and fissile isotopes.

RIP humanity

>>10893438
What about fusion nuclear power and renewable energy?

>>10892460
What's a day?

>>10893431
>Now we start seeing the end of the fossil-fueled industrial era, and it's looking more and more likely that it will have been our peak.

Demonstrably wrong, as nuclear power is an option.

>>10893431
>will have been our peak
Haunting words, anon.

>>10885293
rare Earth hypothesis

>>10893448
>>10893454
You're assuming that countries will switch to fusion before fossil fuels run out and it's too late. Most of the people who run countries are in their 50's or older and don't give a fuck if everything burns to the ground in 40 years.

>>10893451
A day is when our earth completes one rotation around its axis.

>>10893454
ROI of nuclear power is insufficient to power civilization, and nuclear power itself is unsuitable for many things, such as small-scale transportation. It will not be the end of the world or the end of technology, but in order to get stuff done, you need a big energy surplus. We won't ever have that again and will need to scale back.

>>10893495
Nuclear is more about longevity than raw power. We'll need to scale back regardless of any other factor short of free energy. A drop in population is not necessarily relevant to us achieving eventual surplus again.

There is necessarily, due to the physics, some level of nuclear proliferation that breaks even. If we can't calculate what that is, then we were never smart enough to populate the stars to begin with.

>>10885519
But the roman empire came from equatorial regions and the more polar barbarians were the ones that caused it to collapse. Not to mention, there are many equatorial regions (arabia, africa) that are less hospitable than polar regions

>>10885519
>All planets have an equator where life would thrive and food would be in abundance
Garbage post. There are planets that move in such a way that they don't have an equator.

>>10885566
>And all life starts in the ocean, yet leaving it is necessary for advancement.
Wrong. You can't be sure of this. How do you know for sure that there isn't a whole civilization of mer-people deep down there?

>>10893495
wrong

ROI of fusion power would be a magnitude higher than fission. With lithium batteries all small scale transportation can be done using electric motors. You just need to efficiently recycle the batteries.

>>10893820
Good luck outfitting millions of vehicles with fucking lithium batteries. Good luck with eating the transmission losses from having to produce all that power centrally. Good luck with even having commercial fusion by the time we need it.

>>10893834
Not an issue though. Average person in developed nations replaces their car every 5-10 years. Just make a law saying ALL CARS MADE AFTER 2XXX A.D. MUST BE HYBRID OR ELECTRIC. Same transmission losses as there are to any building. Wouldn't really be that hard it would just take a couple decades.