/sci/ - Science & Math

>>10698547
Prove a great filter exists by recording the evolutionary history of thousands of live planets.

>>10698547
The neurological evolution required for an industrial civilization to arise doesn't equip a species to deal with the consequences of it (which requires large scale, long term cooperation and delayed gratification on a civilization tans-generational level). That's what's going to do us in, in the next few decades to a century.

>>10698547
Ahead. The filter is becoming interplanetary before using up all available resources.

>>10698547
Ahead, but we're almost there anon.

>>10699143

>>10698547
Probably being killed by your host star.

>>10698547
>What is the great filter?
Space is big.

>>10698547
How is any leap after the great filter "commonly achieved"?

And for all you know it's both.

>>10698547
Probably still ahead of us. Humans are still tribal and reckless. We’ll probably be past it after some kind of leap of understanding, intelligence, or something that indicates an unprecedented acceptance of each other, lol

>>10699298
easy just have some xenos attack us. that'll unite everyone, even the sunnis and the shias or pakis and indian, or greek and turk

I don't think there is a great filter at all, just lots of natural events like ice ages, impacts, plagues, that can wipe out life on a planet and we are just really lucky. I don't think there is any technological discovery that generally kills intelligent species.

>>10698547
Behind.
The Great Filter is the formation of life itself. It took the spontaneous combinations of random amino acids into the first proteins, then for the random assembly of those proteins into single-celled organisms, then for those cells to create RNA and DNA.
Anyone who understands chemistry and probability should be able to see how astronomically unlikely that is. You'd be lucky to see two life-filled planets in one galaxy.
If we ever leave this planet and find multitudes of aliens nearby, it's more likely that a single progenetor race seeded many worlds.

>>10698547
God, both ahead and behind us

>>10698547
N

>>10698547
We're right in the middle of it.

>>10698547
>What is the great filter?

Theory-saving handwavery by Alium True Believers.

>>10700222
>thinking about possible reasons to explain a phenomenon is "handwavery"

>>10698547
Needs a sample size larger than a single planet

>>10698547
There's no reason to assume its a singular event.

>>10698547
>What is the great filter?
Standards of living

>What is the great filter?

Leftist insanity. Squandering planetary resources on propping up subhumans instead of colonizing space.

>Behind us or ahead?

Ahead.

>>10699115
this. interplanetary travel is difficult, the odds of a suitable host planet being relatively "nearby" are small. you've got to really, really want it or it's not happening and eventually you run out of resources.

>>10699179
nah, if you don't get off the ground in billions of years you were never going to.

>>10700114
This idea is actually something realistic. We will be the genuses species that seeds planets with humanoid offspring who will look similar to the aliens we see in star trek

>>10700698
Fuck off /pol/.

>>10699112
This. 100%. I wish more people would see it this way. Mother nature is a stone cold bitch and all her children are assholes because of it

>>10700715
>he thinks you need planets
lmao

>>10701441
doing it without a suitable planet would be vastly more resource-intense. then again, the suitable planet is likely to be so far away you're effectively already entertaining a colony in space with all that that entails so maybe space station type space-faring actually comes first... food for thought.

>>10698547
There is no filter
We are the precursors

>>10700698
No it’s actually tribalism which inevitably leads to war with now nuclear weapons and AI, and which you are perpetuating with you “leftist” “alt-right” bullshit

>>10698547
What exactly is a type III civilization going to enable us to do
>colonize the galaxy
Ok, and then what? What exactly do we do with that. There is already too many of us for one planet. Having there be more of us doesn't seem like a useful goal. So again, I ask, WHAT THEN?

>>10702192
Experience the maximum possible wellbeing until the universe can no longer support us, then die or go to a new one.

>>10698547
Why do people think there's a great filter, instead of just a bunch of minor filters.
>existence of a good planet
>development of life
>development of multicellular life
>development of intelligent life
>development of civilization
>development of high technology
>succesfully becoming an intersteller species
Most galaxies probably don't have anything that gets past all these.

>>10702182
my tribe is gonna win tho. the immortal science of marxism-leninism proves it

>>10698547
But once self-propagating systems have attained global scale, two crucial differences emerge. The first difference is in the number of individuals from among which the "fittest" are selected. Self-prop systems sufficiently big and powerful to be plausible contenders for global dominance will probably number in the dozens, or possibly in the hundreds; they certainly will not number in the millions. With so few individuals from among which to select the "fittest," it seems safe to say that the process of natural selection will be inefficient in promoting the fitness for survival of the dominant global self-prop systems. It should also be noted that among biological organisms, species that consist of a relatively small number of large individuals are more vulnerable to extinction than species that consist of a large number of small individuals. Though the analogy between biological organisms and self-propagating systems of human beings is far from perfect, still the prospect for viability of a world-system based on the dominance of a few global self-prop systems does not look encouraging.

>>10698547
The second difference is that in the absence of rapid, worldwide transportation and communication, the breakdown or the destructive action of a small-scale self-prop system has only local repercussions. Outside the limited zone where such a self-prop system has been active there will be other self-prop systems among which the process of evolution through natural selection will continue. But where rapid, worldwide transportation and communication have led to the emergence of global self-prop systems, the breakdown or the destructive action of any one such system can shake the whole world-system. Consequently, in the process of trial and error that is evolution through natural selection, it is highly probable that after only a relatively small number of "trials" resulting in "errors," the world-system will break down or will be so severely disrupted that none of the world's larger or more complex self-prop systems will be able to survive. Thus, for such self-prop systems, the trial-and-error process comes to an end; evolution through natural selection cannot continue long enough to create global self-prop systems possessing the subtle and sophisticated mechanisms that prevent destructive internal competition within complex biological organisms.

>>10698547
Meanwhile, fierce competition among global self-prop systems will have led to such drastic and rapid alterations in the Earth's climate, the composition of its atmosphere, the chemistry of its oceans, and so forth, that the effect on the biosphere will be devastating. In Part IV of the present chapter we will carry this line of inquiry further: We will argue that if the development of the technological world-system is allowed to proceed to its logical conclusion, then in all probability the Earth will be left a dead planet-a planet on which nothing will remain alive except, maybe, some of the simplest organisms-certain bacteria, algae, etc.-that are capable of surviving under extreme conditions.

>>10698547
The theory we've outlined here provides a plausible explanation for the so-called Fermi Paradox. It is believed that there should be numerous planets on which technologically advanced civilizations have evolved, and which are not so remote from us that we could not by this time have detected their radio transmissions. The Fermi Paradox consists in the fact that our astronomers have never yet been able to detect any radio signals that seem to have originated from an intelligent extraterrestrial source.
According to Ray Kurzweil, one common explanation of the Fermi Paradox is "that a civilization may obliterate itself once it reaches radio capability." Kurzweil continues: "This explanation might be acceptable if we were talking about only a few such civilizations, but [if such civilizations have been numerous], it is not credible to believe that every one of them destroyed itself" Kurzweil would be right if the self-destruction of a civilization were merely a matter of chance. But there is nothing implausible about the foregoing explanation of the Fermi Paradox if there is a process common to all technologically advanced civilizations that consistently leads them to self-destruction. Here we've been arguing that there is such a process.

>>10700092
Kill the alien.

>>10702531
>>10702533
>>10702534
>>10702537
>>>/x/

getting off planet before resource shortages and climate change kill us all
we actually already missed the critical window, it'll be a miracle if we survive the next century

>>10698547
climate change, or a situation where we reach post-scarcity and we are literally too complacent to explore the universe, also I am not necessarily implying that interstellar travel is possible in the event that these things do not happen

>>10700092
I'd side with the aliens before those shia bastards inshallah

we are one of the older civilizations in the universe

>>10700092
more like all these subhumans will be killed off to not be a drain on the united global society

>>10700092
If I had a daughter I would more readily allow her to be taken as a wife by some black man then to be taken by some filthy xenos

>>10699115
>The filter is becoming interplanetary before using up all available resources.

This is some Age of Empires level shit right here.

>>10700114
Add this to it:
Intelligence alone doesn't give you civilizaion either. Dolphins are fucking smart but it's hard to build something under water when you don't have hands. You can't even make fire unrelated to how smart you are. The species has to be at least a bit herd animally because technological advancements partially builds upon the success of others. Same probably goes for crows and other birds.
intelligence + body + medium you live in + social behaviour.

>>10698547
On top of. We are literally being filtered as we discuss this.

>>10705392
cuck

>>10698547
BEHIND
E
H
I
N
D

>>10699115
What resource? Sunlight?

>>10698547
Whoever believes in idiotic nonsense like "the great filter" is fundamentally ignorant of biology. There are species of organisms that live inside rocks and which can survive the harshness of direct exposure to the cold vacuum of space. Not just one -- lots of them. Diversification is an inherent property of life. If there were ever just one species left in the universe with no hope for further evolution, life would go extinct soon thereafter.

>>10699298
>Humans are still tribal
If you don't care about your genetics, then your genetics will go extinct.
>and reckless.
Taking risks is necessary to avoid stagnation.

You, sir, are and idiot.

>>10707093
>Taking risks is necessary to avoid stagnation.

There's a difference between making a calculated course of action and engaging in shitty ventures with no benefit anon.

recurrent nova's make sense, the whole planetary system get's a big re-set. That's might be the great filter.