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/sci/ - Science & Math

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File: 55 KB, 1200x667, 1200px-Monty_open_door.svg.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10203209 No.10203209 [Reply] [Original]

The game show host opened all the doors that had goats behind them. Before he opened the doors, there was a 1/3rd chance.

After he opens the doors, let us imagine that the contestant is swapped out for a new contestant who has no knowledge of what occurred previously. This new contestant now has to choose between the two doors. The probability of winning is 50/50.

Probability of an event is decided by the internal structure of the event, not by subjective knowledge of outside factors. You can't smuggle in the influence and knowledge of a person playing a game into the mathematical probability of an event occurring, that's pure nonsense.

>> No.10203213

>>10203209
Oh look, it's this fucking thread again.

>> No.10203216

Enjoy losing in the long run, OP

>> No.10203219

>>10203209
Because the game show host randomly picks the first door it's 1/3. It would be 1/2 if the first door was fixed.

>> No.10203223
File: 116 KB, 845x775, pw00letmtm221.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10203223

>>10203209
You don't need probability to know that switching is the better strategy. See pic related

>> No.10203230

>>10203209
Door A still has probability 2/3 of having the car and door B still has 1/3 probability of having the car. The new contestant just doesn’t know which is door A and which is door B so he has to pick at random, making his probability 50/50

>> No.10203232

>>10203219
I mean 2/3

>> No.10203236

>>10203209
The difference is that the first person is asked if they want to switch and the new contestant is asked to choose a door without knowing what the first contestant chose.

>> No.10203251
File: 1.84 MB, 3024x4032, 430ftodkee121.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10203251

>>10203216
>losing
To be honest winning a goat would also be a win

> pay bullshit taxes, license and parking fees
vs
> have GOAT pet, get free milk

>> No.10203253

>>10203251
In some cities the goat would be a faster and more reliable means of transportation as well

>> No.10203302

What happens if you then kill everyone involved and shuffle what was behind the doors?

Can science explain that!!!!!!!

>> No.10203306
File: 50 KB, 374x382, monty.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10203306

>>10203209
2/3