/sci/ - Science & Math

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/17/844721/ai-openai-moonshot-elon-musk-sam-altman-greg-brockman-messy-secretive-reality/

>Every year, OpenAI’s employees vote on when they believe artificial general intelligence, or AGI, will finally arrive. It’s mostly seen as a fun way to bond, and their estimates differ widely. But in a field that still debates whether human-like autonomous systems are even possible, half the lab bets it is likely to happen within 15 years.

>One of the biggest secrets is the project OpenAI is working on next. Sources described it to me as the culmination of its previous four years of research: an AI system trained on images, text, and other data using massive computational resources. A small team has been assigned to the initial effort, with an expectation that other teams, along with their work, will eventually fold in. On the day it was announced at an all-company meeting, interns weren’t allowed to attend. People familiar with the plan offer an explanation: the leadership thinks this is the most promising way to reach AGI.


Alright, SERIOUS PREDICTIONS boys. Remove all cognitive biases and try to make an accurate range of predictions for end of century.

I predict: primitive AGI systems (very slow takeoff), modest life extension(20-30 year extension), neuralink reaching a modest comprehensiveness (blind intuition on this one desu), and VR almost indistinguishable (visually) from our reality. I admit I know very little about AI but as a bio grad student I am def bullish on life extension & the '9 hallmarks' being addressed. Additionally, Africa is having a massive population explosion. assuming their development into 1st world status stays on track w/ good education and literacy standards, in a decade or so we will have a MASSIVE influx of 20 year olds from there who can contribute intellectual wealth to society.