/sci/ - Science & Math

>SpaceX seeks a waiver to launch Starship “at least” nine times this year
Im thinking its going to go something like this. Even if not all this year.

>IFT3: booster RUD after flip, ship reaches engine cutoff but is lost during coast phase
>IFT4: booster flip successful, loses control during descent = FTS, ship coasts and burns up on reentry
>IFT5: booster descent successful, engines cut off premptively during splashdown = RUD. ship breaks apart during reentry
>IFT6: booster successfully splashes down, first recovery. ship reentry successful, engines cut off during landing = RUD
>IFT7: booster lands on water, ship finally "lands" successfully on water, first recovery.
>IFT8: booster lands on water, ship goes into orbit for the first time. circles the earth several times before landing on water.
>IFT9: booster attempts to boostback to starbase, launch tower attempts to grab it but it explodes. ship goes to orbit, returns to land upright on a barge successfully.
>IFT10:booster lands on water while launch tower is repairing (cant land on barge since no legs), ship tests delivery of 20 starlink satellites before landing on barge.
>IFT11:booster lands on water, ship tests delivery of 80 starlink satellites, lands on barge.
>IFT12:booster attempts chopstick maneuver again, succeeds. first "dry" recovery of booster. ship returns to starbase to land on pad for first time.

I reckon it will take at least nine launches to get past each of the failure points and get to upright landings of both stages reliably.