/sci/ - Science & Math

>>7180807
>ALL PROCESSED FOODS ARE BAD FOR YOU

I AM A COMPLETE RETARD

LOOK AT ME GUYS

I READ THE STICKY ON /fit/, NOW I AM THE NUTRITION GOD

>>5036948
The thing is, stop before rerolling and ask yourself how unlucky you were to never get a 4, but remember to reroll with the confidence that you have a static 1 chance on so many.

6 side die - odds of never getting a 4
(5 chance on 6)
1st turn odds: 5/6
2nd turn odds: 25/36 ~ 4.2/6
3rd turn odds: 125/216 ~ 3.5/6
4th turn odds: 625/1296 ~ 2.9/6
The 4th turn is less than 1 on 2 so the probability that you saw 4 by now is greater then not seeing it. The probability of you missing it or hitting it has nothing to do with the probability of hitting it or missing it in the next throw. There goes the paradox. The probability of hitting it next turn remains 1/6.