/sci/ - Science & Math

>>9606578

You don't know how money works, do you? Past performance does not guarantee future results is an axiom of investing, it is what drives the consulting and market intelligence industries.

Which is to say any number of things could happen, such as the government reducing the number of their launches for budgetary reasons. On that note we do know three things that are sure to happen: Stratolaunch will have it's first flight in 2019, Boeing will begin testing their XS-1 in 2020, and NASA will more or less end the ISS program in 2024. This means within ten years SpaceX will get both real competition (something it has lacked so far) while also being deprived of a steady source of resupply contracts. Musk himself has realized this hence his comments on building an ISP.

But all of this still carries significant risk, especially when SpaceX is going to be burning cash on BFR/BFS which has no guarantee of actually working or having buyers. This is my very basic point: nothing is guaranteed until it (the booster) at least flies. Everything else is speculation. Markets are dynamic, such is the nature of competition. Which is the drive for the BFR in the first place.