/sci/ - Science & Math

Industry report: Demand for satellites is rising but not skyrocketing
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https://spacenews.com/industry-report-demand-for-satellites-is-rising-but-not-skyrocketing/
> WASHINGTON — A new report predicts that around 20,000 new satellites will launch by the end of the decade — a more conservative forecast compared to other sky-high projections.
> Quilty Space, a research and consulting firm, says there are “positive indicators for sustained growth within the space industrial base, particularly given continuing momentum in the low Earth orbit broadband mega-constellation markets that make up about 85% of all satellite demand in Western markets.”
> However, “financing headwinds are expected to cause some dampening of near-term demand from earlier-stage entities.”
> If all the missions planned by 350 commercial and government constellations analyzed by Quilty reached orbit, a whopping 478,000 total satellites would be in space by 2030.
>By assigning a probability weighting, Quilty estimated that about 20,000 satellites are likely to make it to orbit.
> By comparison, other organizations have forecast much larger numbers. The Government Accountability Office in a report last year projected about 58,000 satellites would be launched by 2030. Euroconsult anticipates about 1,700 satellites to be launched on average per year by 2030.
> By far the heaviest driver of new demand is SpaceX and its Starlink broadband constellation, said the Quilty report, estimating that SpaceX has launched more than 5,400 satellites as of November.
>Satellite demand also is fueled by government constellations like the U.S. Space Force’s Space Development Agency Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture and Europe’s IRIS2.