/sci/ - Science & Math

Assuming that the first swing has a 50% chance to crit, the second swing has a 50% chance to crit, and each swing has a 50% to turn into a a crit afterwards (whether it was a crit originally or not - note: we have to run the probabilities out of chronological order for this last part due to the premise not being realistic); then we can draw a probability diagram as such.
>Key:
! means crit
X means not a crit

1st: .........1/2 ! .................. 1/2 X
2nd: ..1/2 ! ....1/2 X .....1/2 ! ......1/2 X
result: 1/4 !! .........1/2 !X .........1/4 XX

So, before the final step, we end up with a 25% chance for guaranteed doublecrit, a 50% chance for a possible doublecrit, and a 25% chance for a guaranteed failure to doublecrit.
>Now we run the final step on the only relevant outcomes:
2 outcomes, each with a 50% chance to turn its noncrit into a crit (creating a doublecrit) and a 50% chance to turn its crit into a crit (meaning no doublecrit).
1/2 times 2 = 1 ...... So 1 of these 2 outcomes becomes a doublecrit and the other does not. Now we can add up all our outcomes:
2/4 outcomes doublecrit
2/4 dont doublecrit
>tl;dr Its a 50% chance
I bet 99% of the motherfuckers in this thread never even took one statistics class.