/sci/ - Science & Math

>>7979814
>>7979828
This is a classic example of completely ignoring logic in favor of completely irrelevant mathematical calculations.

I'll say it again, the specific gold ball you chose is completely irrelevant in the context of this problem.The condition that you've already drawn a gold ball eliminates every single other relevant possibility except for
A. You picked box 1
B. You picked box 2

For the reference frame this problem sets up, the chance of getting a second gold ball is only dependent on which box you have (read: NOT which ball you have) and therefore there is one positive outcome and one negative. a 50/50 chance.

>>7979810
This is still a 50% probability for the exact same reason jesus christ


You can sit there and show me the math all day long, but any calculation that comes out to 2/3 is including practically redundant outcomes. There is no reason whatsoever to argue this problem except to circlejerk semantics and vaguely defined frames of references that have plagued probability since the dawn of time.