/sci/ - Science & Math

Look at this graph

>>9333797
It's conceivable that it played a substantial role during individual events in Earth history (PETM, P-T boundary, etc.) but there is no reason to suppose the apocalyptic release that you sometimes hear about on the internet.

The physical and chemical sinks in the ocean strongly limit the amount of carbon that would reach the ocean-atmosphere interface.
Also, the Pleistocene and Pliocene features several moments where temperatures as warm or warmer than today were sustained for thousands of years and -needless to say- they aren't characterized by an apocalyptic methane release.

>>9319911
Arctic sea ice is losing area and volume quite rapidly, which induces some climate feedbacks (mainly albedo) but this doesn't imply that there is going to be an apocalyptic release of methane hydrates. In fact, there are several good reasons to think that it wont happen:

The first one is theoretical:
There are large methane sinks in the ocean sediments and water column. For example, at the sea floor, microorganisms form a "sulfate reduction zone" where methane is anaerobically metabolized (oxidated). This, as well as other physical sinks strongly reduce the fraction of methane that would reach the ocean-atmosphere interface.
see
>http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016RG000534/full
for a lengthy review

the second reason is the paleoclimate record:
There are intervals during the more recent geologic past that had margnially warmer (Eemian, Holsteinian) and significantly warmer (the interglacials of the MPWP) surface temperature compared to today - and those times aren't characterized by an exponential, apocalyptic runaway methane release.

the Pliocene coming back to greet us Edition

>>8875638
There is no data to suggest a positive H2O feedback either now or in Earth’s past. Indeed, we cannot model some periods in Earth’s history with an assumed positive H2O feedback. It would appear that Earth’s atmosphere is remarkably adept at dampening forcings from either direction and does not amplify them.

If there is no positive H2O feedback, we literally have nothing to worry about.

The average climate change believer knows none of this. Politicians, citizens, activists, and surprisingly even a lot of scientists are literally ignorant of the theory and the math. In their mind, it’s simply “CO2 = bad” and “experts say we’re warming faster then ever.”

The more you know.

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