/sci/ - Science & Math

USSF say they think China's CZ-5B marginal cost of launch is $3,000 per kg payload.

Isn't Falcon 9 $2.7k/kg? SpaceX's internal pricetag might be lower, and the marginal cost is certainly lower, however the Chinese price tag estimate seems to be in the same ballpark.

China wants to mainly rely on the CZ-5B and CZ-8 to launch their Guowang constellation. They intend to ramp up CZ-5B launches, and launch 50 CZ-8 and 10 CZ-7A per year. CZ-5/7/8 are all CALT rockets. Historically, SAST has been responsible for about 40% of CASC rockets. So I assume SAST will produce a comparable number of CZ-6/6A/6C. The Shanghai municipal government mentioned plans to build 50 商业火箭 "commercial rockets" per year starting in 2025.

If the $3k/kg price tag is true, it makes sense why they think they can rely on the CZ-5-8 to launch their Guowang constellation and why CASC isn't too hurried with the reusable CZ-10A. They get reasonable price while maintaining the schedule predictability that comes from relying on proven conservative technology, while other Chinese companies can hurry chasing a Falcon 9 equivalent. CZ-5B is 8x YF-100 + 2x YF-77 for 25,000kg to LEO. CZ-8 is 4x YF-100 + 2x YF-75 for 8,100kg to LEO. So CZ-8 might have a similar price tag per kg.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/12/a-top-secret-chinese-spy-satellite-just-launched-on-a-super-sized-rocket/2/
https://spacenews.com/china-looks-to-long-march-8-rocket-to-help-launch-its-answer-to-starlink/
https://twitter.com/CNSpaceflight/status/1612289298799415296
https://spacenews.com/china-wants-to-ramp-up-the-launch-rate-of-its-long-march-5b-rocket
https://www.shanghai.gov.cn/nw12344/20231120/5e53f1fe1b1543f38a49153eb563cfbb.html