/sci/ - Science & Math

Column A is the total number of Starships built and available on Earth for use. It assumes that SpaceX will build Starships at a rate of one per month per year. It takes into account Starships on Mars and when they will be available based on transfer windows. Transfer windows are every 26 months. Each transfer window the Starships sent to Mars are taken away from the total and the Starships sent to Mars the transfer window before last are added back to the total to be used again.
Column B is half of the total number of Starships, assuming that half of all Starships will be used for non-Mars activity. It is rounded down to the nearest multiple of 4 for simplicity of calculation.
Column C is 75% of the number of Starships reserved for Mars. It is assumed that 25% of the ships will be tanker ships and will not be sent to Mars. This is the number used to calculate the number of Starships to take away and add each transfer window.
Column D is the number of cargo Starships sent to Mars.
Column E is the total mass in tons sent to Mars that transfer window. The number at the very bottom is the total mass sent to Mars ever.
Column F is the number of crew Starships sent to Mars. It is assumed that 1/3 ships sent will be for colonists and that crew Starships carry no cargo for Mars.
Column G is the number of people sent to Mars that launch window, assuming 25 people per Starship.
Column H is the number of people at Mars, assuming half of the previous batch return to Earth each transfer window.
By this estimate we can see that by 2050 SpaceX will have sent 372,400 tons to Mars and will have 17,141 people on Mars.