/sci/ - Science & Math

even if our solar system had two cases of abiogenesis, that it no way implies how common fecund solar systems are in the universe

civilizations is most likely to arise in a life-friendly solar system so we shouldn't be too surprised that our solar system might have multiple cases of abiogenesis

on the other hand, civilization also shouldn't be surprised to find itself alone in a galaxy because a galactic civilization will colonize earth-like planets and stop Earth's path towards the creation of a technological civilization

>>12144432
>it only takes 4 billion years for life to evolve to be intelligent
That 4 billion years is 95% of the Earth's habitability. In 500 milliom years, the Sun will heat up and kill all life on Earth. We almost didn't fucking make it.

And a planet even getting 4 billion years of habitability is EXTREMELY rare.

>life appeared quick, in less than 600 million years

You're falling victim to survivorship bias.
If abiogenesis didn't occur that quickly, then there wouldn't have been enough time for life to evolve into intelligent life and we wouldn't be here to talk about how Late abiogenesis occured.

Intelligent life shouldn't be surprised that abiogenesis occurred very quickly on its planet.

>Earth is normal

No. Look up the Rare Earth Hypothesis.

>intelligence is an advantage

No. A species is only as intelligent as its environment requires it to be. Dolphins/Orcas are the smartest non-human species because their environment and history is very complex. But species that just live in a static environment actually degenerate in intelligence over time because intelligence costs energy, development time, and carries risks.

For ex: ethnicities that have lived in static environments (tropical jungles) tend to be dumber than ethnicities that have lived in harsh ever-changing environments (winters).

>>12144617
Actually, even if A solar system has multiple cases of abiogenesis, that in no way says anything about how common fecund solar systems are in the universe.

But yes, life most likely started on Mars because it cooled first, then later on was launched to the then-now-cooled Earth and Venus.

The great filters are definitely pre-tech civilzation. For ex: if there was an alien civilization already in the Milky Way, then they would have already colonized Earth before we evolved and prevented us from evolving.

An intelligent species shouldn't be surprised to find itself in a quiet area of the cosmos.

For more, see: >>12140943

You have $10 and you gamble 1 dollar on every coin flip.
If the coin lands heads, you gain 1 dollar.
If the coin lands tails, you lose 1 dollar.
You play twice, so there are four possible outcomes:

Option 1: you LOSE a dollar on your first round, falling to $9 (losing 10%), then LOSE another dollar on your second round, falling to $8 (losing 11% of previous round's bankroll).

Option 2: you WIN a dollar on your first round, rising to $11 (gaining 10%), then WIN another dollar on your second round, rising to $12 (gaining 9% of previous round's bankroll).

Option 3: you WIN a dollar on your first round, rising to $11 (gaining 10%), then you LOSE a dollar on your second round, falling back down to $10 (losing 9% of previous round's bankroll).

Option 4: you LOSE a dollar on your first round, falling to $9 (losing 10%), then you WIN a dollar on your second round, rising back up to $10 (gaining 11% of previous round's bankroll).

Which of the following options is most likely to happen:
>Option 3 where you gain 10% and lose 9%?
>Option 4 where you lose 10% and gain 11%?

(Hint: only Bayesianists will get this.)

>>12095111
One of my lab partners from uni bragged about being INTP and like the rest of us physics majors. Then she came in with one of those folder-notebook things where there were colored tabs, highlights, stickers, etc.
While the rest of us had normal notebooks full of handwriting that looked like came from a schizo.