/sci/ - Science & Math

>>8787260
Not gonna happen.

Actually the consensus has been shifting away from the clathrate gun hypothesis. Just last month, a review study was published by Carolyn Ruppel the Chief Scientist of USGS (United States Geological Survey) Gas Hydrate Project. Here is the press release for the study
https://www.usgs.gov/news/gas-hydrate-breakdown-unlikely-cause-massive-greenhouse-gas-release

Before this review, which is kind of a nail in the coffin, several other studies like analyses of CH4 isotopes in ice cores,
>http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.465.6061&rep=rep1&type=pdf
>http://faculty.jsd.claremont.edu/emorhardt/159/pdfs/2007/Sowers%202006.pdf
>http://science.sciencemag.org/content/313/5790/1109
have shown that there was no trace of clathrate release in the past, so it is unlikely that this will happen in the near future. Moreover, study from the latest catastrophic clathrate explosion we had, the deepwater oil spill shows that all of the methane got eaten by bacteria in the water column and none of it made it to the atmosphere
>https://9bb9afe9-a-017ed1b7-s-sites.googlegroups.com/a/uw.edu/ess-418-geoscience-communication/Science-2011-Kessler-312-5.pdf?attachauth=ANoY7coTSjSfBv_XVogThgRCYYwFVgYiVkWE8KW-cJsCcHixN0viZTivh76-LBNirCpw-cpp97TaBIEsrvl62Zs79Cf4Wo1FYjt0bcOsvaCLi-GORlL6O9Vfiv6ulD2sWM9b5ZMQ7JFGjRKK1Ie8yNe6xmOc8pcsW4DaP11iZKJHYCFgGABtC_DKeZnqSARqf7LqgXA4stKhrTIUa7ReCq4FCcysm33-8cwnJq2siKzT0MWjeL45K9sr5x809P5EAZKuqb7hKGZK&attredirects=0

As a result of these series of recent studies, the IPCC AR5 synthesis shifted the prediction on catastrophic methane hydrate dissociation to UNLIKELY which means less than <1% chance of it happening in the near future (defined as 100yr from now)

>>8778329
It's on the IPCC AR5 report that came out in 2013 saying that clathrate dissociation is extremely unlikely, pic related from Chapter 12.

Ice core record shows that this suspected clathrate derived CH4 was not detectable during previous collapse of the Laurentide/North American Ice sheet and the Earth coming out of Last Glacial maximum
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/324/5926/506.short

There's a report coming from USGS last month that really put the nail into the coffin
https://www.usgs.gov/news/gas-hydrate-breakdown-unlikely-cause-massive-greenhouse-gas-release

I don't know what you want me and other people in the field to do. Bill Nye hasn't talk about the clathrate gun hypothesis in 3 years since the IPCC report came out.